CEE MARKETS-Currencies stay near recent highs as markets eye Ukraine
20/11/2025 10:06
By Alan Charlish WARSAW, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Central European currencies were hovering around recent highs on Thursday as investors eyed reports about a U.S. plan to end the war in Ukraine and amid a wave of optimism on global stock markets after AI bellwether Nvidia's NVDA.O strong results. The U.S. has signalled to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that Ukraine must accept a U.S.-drafted framework to end the war with Russia that proposes Kyiv giving up territory and some weapons, two people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. "Yesterday we had some appreciation on the zloty, I think it was mainly on the news... (about) peace talks and I think that sparked some hopes, and a couple of accounts just sold euro/POL, sold euro/HUF," said a Warsaw-based FX trader. The zloty EUR/PLN= was trading at 4.2325 versus the euro, 0.08% weaker, while the Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.06% softer at 24.18. The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was 0.21% weaker at 382.30, pulling back from a 22-month high hit on Wednesday. "It's quite small flows, small ups and downs moving in a very tiny range around 382," said Miklos Kolba, Senior Corporate Sales Dealer at ING in Budapest. "And if you ask me what is my view, I think soon we will see the 380 level." The forint, central Europe's strongest performer in 2025, got a boost on Tuesday when the Hungarian central bank extended a more than year-long pause in cuts to interest rates, keeping its base rate steady at the European Union's joint-highest level of 6.5%. However, Commerzbank said in a note that the forint rally "could be at risk of having overrun itself". "The combination of hawkish policy stance and pre-emptive optimism among investors about a potential change of political guard (in elections) next April... could be stretching valuations – the HUF rally could reverse abruptly if either assumption were to appear unrealistic," Commerzbank said. The region's main stock indices were 0.2-0.8% higher, boosted by global optimism after Nvidia's strong third-quarter earnings and fourth-quarter outlook calmed market jitters about an AI bubble. Insurer PZU PZU.WA rose more than 4%, making it the biggest gainer on Warsaw's WIG 20 .WIG20 index after its third-quarter results beat analysts' estimates.
| CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1016 CET | |||||
| CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
| Czech crown | EURCZK= | 24.1800 | 24.1650 | -0.06% | +4.26% |
| Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 382.3000 | 381.5000 | -0.21% | +7.62% |
| Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2325 | 4.2290 | -0.08% | +1.05% |
| Romanian leu | EURRON= | 5.0882 | 5.0890 | +0.02% | -2.20% |
| Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.1500 | 117.2500 | +0.09% | -0.17% |
| Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
| STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
| Prague | .PX | 2481.98 | 2477.1100 | +0.20% | +41.01% |
| Budapest | .BUX | 108066.08 | 107194.23 | +0.81% | +36.23% |
| Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2968.75 | 2956.75 | +0.41% | +35.44% |
| Bucharest | .BETI | 23254.69 | 23200.37 | +0.23% | +39.08% |
| BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
| Czech Rep 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.6350 | 0.0060 | +161bps | +0bps |
| Czech Rep 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 4.0890 | -0.0130 | +178bps | -3bps |
| Czech Rep 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.6070 | 0.0110 | +189bps | +0bps |
| Poland 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.2260 | -0.0790 | +220bps | -9bps |
| Poland 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 4.7500 | -0.0140 | +245bps | -3bps |
| Poland 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.3590 | -0.0250 | +264bps | -4bps |
| FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
| Czech Rep | CZKFRA, PRIBOR= | 3.62 | 3.65 | 3.69 | 3.55 |
| Poland | PLNFRA, WIBOR= | 3.88 | 3.71 | 3.68 | 4.26 |
| Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices | |||||