US natgas prices soar 10% to 5-week high on output drop, jump in demand
11/11/2024 16:33
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Gas futures rise over 10% to five-week high
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Spot gas prices at Henry Hub fall to 25-year low
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Daily gas output falls to nine-month low
By Scott DiSavino
Nov 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared about 10% to a five-week high on Monday on a drop in daily output over
the past few days and forecast for much cooler weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
That heating demand should cause utilities to start pulling gas out of storage in late November.
There is currently about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Analysts projected utilities added more gas
than normal into storage last week for a fourth week in a row for the first time since October 2022. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Prior to the last few weeks, storage injections had been smaller than usual for 14 weeks in a row because many producers have
reduced drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in
Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March. Prices have remained relatively low since then, dropping to a 23-year low
for the month of October.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 27.6 cents, or 10.3%, to $2.945
per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:52 a.m. EST (1552 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since
Oct. 3.
The tremendous gain, which was only the biggest daily percentage increase since prices soared 21% on Oct. 30, cut the premium of
futures for January over December NGZ24-F25 to just 21 cents per mmBtu, the lowest since November 2022.
That jump in gas prices also boosted stock prices for several U.S. gas producers, including a 6% increase for Antero Resources
AR.N and 4% increases for EQT EQT.N , Comstock Resources CRK.N and Range Resources RRC.N .
Even though gas futures have gained about 18% over the prior three weeks, speculators boosted their net short futures and
options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row last week to their highest
since April, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
In the spot market, gas prices plunged to a 25-year low at the Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana and dropped into
negative territory for a record 47th time at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas.
Elsewhere, next-day gas prices at the Eastern Gas South hub NG-PCN-APP-SNL in Pennsylvania fell about 20% to $1.00 per mmBtu,
their lowest since October 2023.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 100.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far
in November from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output over the past three days fell by 2.3 bcfd to a preliminary nine-month low of 98.2 bcfd on Monday.
Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states will switch from warmer than normal from now through Nov. 20 to near
normal from Nov. 21-26.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108.3 bcfd this
week to 110.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 13.0 bcfd so far in November, down from
13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Nov 8 Nov 1 Nov 8 average
Forecast Actual Nov 8
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +49 +69 +41 +29
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,981 3,932 3,816 3,746
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 6.3% 5.8%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average Average
2023 (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1 2.86 2.67 3.06 2.66 3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 13.65 13.24 14.45 13.04 14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 13.55 13.50 17.02 14.39 14.31
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 253 204 255 283 291
U.S. GFS CDDs 14 22 10 12 10
U.S. GFS TDDs 267 226 265 295 301
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2019-2023)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 100.9 99.1 99.7 104.3 98.0
U.S. Imports from Canada 8.5 8.5 7.7 N/A 7.8
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 109.4 107.6 107.4 N/A 105.9
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.4 2.3 2.2 N/A 2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.6 5.8 5.8 N/A 5.5
U.S. LNG Exports 12.4 13.9 14.1 13.8 11.0
U.S. Commercial 8.0 9.6 10.6 8.8 11.5
U.S. Residential 10.6 13.6 16.2 11.8 16.8
U.S. Power Plant 33.1 32.7 31.0 28.7 28.8
U.S. Industrial 22.7 23.1 23.5 22.6 24.3
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.1 3.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 81.7 86.3 88.7 79.1 90.0
Total U.S. Demand 102.1 108.3 110.8 N/A 109.4
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam 2025 2025 2024 2003 2022
Current Day Prior Day % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
% of Normal % of Normal Actual Actual Actual
Forecast Forecast
Apr-Sep 95 96 74 83 107
Jan-Jul 90 91 76 77 102
Oct-Sep 92 93 77 76 103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended 2023 2022 2021
Nov 15 Nov 8
Wind 11 13 10 11 10
Solar 5 4 4 3 3
Hydro 5 5 6 6 7
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 42 43 41 38 37
Coal 13 14 17 21 23
Nuclear 21 19 19 19 20
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 1.21 1.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 1.06 1.35
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 1.92 2.34
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 1.00 1.25
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 1.21 1.44
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 1.15 1.52
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 1.31 1.98
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL -1.06 0.32
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 0.63 0.38
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 32.25 34.00
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 24.75 30.75
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 19.50 25.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 31.50 38.26
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 23.75 31.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 23.50 31.00
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
((For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
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