AlphaValue ups Repsol to buy on stronger Brent, gas outlook
BUZZ-AlphaValue ups Repsol to buy on stronger Brent, gas outlook ** Alphavalue upgrades Repsol REP.MC to "buy" from "add" with a €30.8 target price, saying stronger upstream and LNG earnings power more than offsets softer downstream margins
** "The upgraded commodity deck feeds through to Upstream realised prices, with Brent at $95/bbl (vs $62 prior) and TTF at €55/MWh (vs €38)", it says
** Sees a volume ramp-up in Brazil, the U.S. and key projects supporting EBIT, though the uplift is almost entirely absorbed by elevated cash capex and a 44.3% effective tax rate
** The broker expects capex to decline to €4.25 billion in 2027 and €4.3 billion in 2028 from €4.9 billion in 2026, lifting free cash flow as the investment phase eases
** Of 26 analysts covering Repsol, 12 rate it "strong buy" or "buy," 12 "hold" and two "strong sell" or "sell" - LSEG data
(Reporting by Tiago Brandao)