Jefferies sees easing Mideast risk lifting commodities, favours Australia's Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto

09/04/2026 22:48

** Jefferies raises price forecasts across several commodities, citing tighter supply and rising odds of Middle East de-escalation

** Brokerage lifts forecasts for lithium, aluminium, gold, thermal coal, uranium and rare earths, while maintaining a more muted outlook for iron ore

** Says easing geopolitical risk could revive the "HALO trade", where improving macro conditions lift commodities and mining stocks broadly, driving sector wide re-rating

** Prefers Rio Tinto RIO.AX over BHP BHP.AX, citing stronger exposure to aluminium and lithium and lower near‑term M&A risk

** Keeps Rio rated "hold" with a A$162 price target

** Sector top picks include Rio Tinto, South32 S32.AX, Sandfire Resources SFR.AX, Lynas Rare Earths LYC.AX, Paladin Energy PDN.AX and Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX

** Warns a prolonged energy shock could tip the global economy into recession, potentially cutting mining share prices by 25%–50%

** Broader ASX 300 Metals & Mining index .AXMM up 12.6% this year, as of last close

 (Reporting by Roushni Nair in Bengaluru)

 ((Roushni.nair@thomsonreuters.com))