Berenberg prefers beer and soft drinks over spirits in 2025

Royal Unibrew A/S

02/04/2025 13:56

** Berenberg says macro environment could be changing for beverage makers partly due to the Trump administration's actions and partly on lower inflation

** It favours beer and soft drinks over spirits in 2025, given their lower earnings cyclicality and limited exposure to tariffs

** It flags Heineken HEIN.AS as its top pick for beer, sees an interesting upside in AB InBev ABI.BR and Molson Coors TAP.N, and highlights bottler Coca-Cola HBC CCH.L among soft drinks

** For spirits, the broker says large producers are in strong position to manage tariff threats, seeing Diageo DGE.L and Pernod Ricard PERP.PA as best-placed to do that

** It says reducing alcohol inventories is still ongoing and is affecting the spirits makers more than beer companies

** It agrees with concerns that the U.S. alcohol category could be structurally slowing, but disagrees with the assessment that the spirits category has become ex-growth

** Berenberg starts coverage of 12 companies, half of them with "buy": ABInBev, Coca-Cola HBC, Diageo, Heineken, Molson Coors and Pernod Ricard

** It initiates the rest with "hold": Boston Beer SAM.N, Brown-Forman BFb.N, Carlsberg CARLb.CO, Campari CPRI.MI, Rémy Cointreau RCOP.PA and Royal Unibrew RBREW.CO

 (Reporting by Marta Frackowiak)

 ((marta.frackowiak@thomsonreuters.com))