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US natgas prices hold steady after smaller-than-expected build (updated)

UPDATE 2-US natgas prices hold steady after smaller-than-expected build

EIA says utilities add 44 bcf of gas to storage in week ended September 11

Daily LNG feedgas falls toward 17.5 bcfd, lowest in three weeks on Cameron maintenance

Berkshire Hathaway Energy plans maintenance at Cove Point over the next week

Storage build was far below last year's 87 bcf and the 74 bcf norm

European and Asian gas benchmarks hovered near 44-month highs above $26 per mmBtu

Updates prices and market activity to settlement

By Scott DiSavino

- U.S. natural gas futures held steady as a bullish smaller-than-expected storage build offset a bearish drop in flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.

Front-month gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.0 cent, or 0.3%, to settle at $2.901 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 44 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended September 11.

That was smaller than the 49-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 87 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 74 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Analysts said last week's build was smaller than usual for this time of year because hot weather and high air conditioning demand left energy firms with less gas to send to storage.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 113.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September from a monthly record high of 112.2 bcfd in August.

Record output and mild weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March.

Meteorologists forecast weather would remain mostly warmer through October 2, with power generators burning more gas than usual to keep air conditioners running. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.

LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, is expected to slide from 109.6 bcfd this week to 106.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.2 bcfd so far in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, but remained short of the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to fall to a three-week low of 17.5 bcfd on Thursday due mostly to maintenance at U.S. energy firm Sempra Energy's SRE.N 2.0-bcfd Cameron LNG plant in Louisiana.

U.S. energy firm Berkshire Hathaway Energy, meanwhile, said it plans to start scheduled maintenance on its 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland over the next week or so.

Around the world, gas traded near 44-month highs of around $26 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $27 at the Japan-Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Sep 11 Actual

Week ended Sep 4 Actual

Year ago Sep 11

Five-year average (2021-2025) Sep 11

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+44

+40

+87

+74

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,298

3,254

3,420

3,180

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+3.7%

+4.8%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.89

2.89

3.01

3.62

3.79

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

26.17

26.02

11.13

11.94

18.51

Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

27.23

25.21

11.32

12.24

18.12

LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days

Total Two-Week Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)

31

22

6

34

54

U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)

123

136

138

118

89

U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)

154

158

144

152

143

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

113.8

112.5

112.5

107.2

101.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.0

6.5

7.3

N/A

7.7

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

120.8

119.0

119.8

N/A

109.2

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.5

2.4

2.4

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.6

7.4

7.7

N/A

6.8

U.S. LNG Export Feedgas

18.4

18.2

17.8

16.0

12.6

U.S. Commercial

4.7

5.0

5.3

4.7

5.0

U.S. Residential

3.6

3.8

4.3

4.0

3.9

U.S. Power Plant

45.3

43.1

39.3

40.9

38.4

U.S. Industrial

21.8

21.9

22.0

22.0

22.1

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.3

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

83.5

81.6

78.7

79.5

77.8

Total U.S. Demand

112.0

109.6

106.6

N/A

99.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)

2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2025 % of Normal Actual

2024 % of Normal Actual

2023 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

83

83

76

74

83

Jan-Jul

90

90

78

76

77

Oct-Sep

93

93

80

77

76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Sep 18

Week ended Sep 11

2025

2024

2023

Wind

11

8

11

11

10

Solar

8

8

6

5

4

Hydro

4

4

6

6

6

Other

2

1

1

1

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

42

43

40

42

41

Coal

17

18

18

16

17

Nuclear

17

17

18

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.00

2.97

2.97

3.52

3.72

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.78

1.59

1.85

3.53

3.56

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.74

3.73

3.74

3.42

5.47

Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.68

1.56

1.75

2.79

2.96

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.82

2.78

2.81

3.23

3.60

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.50

2.38

2.18

6.08

5.04

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.87

3.69

3.11

3.60

5.71

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.77

1.79

-0.06

1.03

2.88

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.09

1.04

0.22

1.13

2.13

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

55.83

46.93

38.84

77.12

61.67

PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX

229.74

117.40

51.24

60.23

54.47

Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX

51.47

56.45

56.16

44.81

68.96

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

38.50

37.90

38.04

34.82

59.94

South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX

34.01

32.24

36.05

28.44

53.02


(Reporting by Scott DiSavino)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

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