Live Markets: September's payrolls: a big one or too stale to care?

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20/11/2025 10:55

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SEPTEMBER'S PAYROLLS: A BIG ONE OR TOO STALE TO CARE?

U.S. job growth is expected to have picked up moderately in September, but because it's been delayed for so long due to the 43-day government shutdown, some investors are choosing to look past the data.

A Reuters poll of economists expects the U.S. to have added 50,000 payrolls, more than double the 22,000 in August. Estimates range from a high of 120,000 to a low of -20,000.

Many investors have been excitedly waiting for this release, as it could help shape the debate about whether the Fed cuts rates again in December or waits until next year.

But Citi are playing down the possible long-term impact.

"Considering this week’s labour market data will be somewhat stale, we will likely need to keep focus on other indicators for greater clarity that the U.S. labour market is bottoming," says Citi senior FX and macro strategist Dan Tobon.

"We are keeping an eye on initial and continuing claims, along with watching for a reversal in the October spike in Challenger Job Cuts."

Markets are currently pricing about a 25% chance of a rate cut next month, but whether they go in January or December shouldn't make much difference to the dollar, Tobon says.

For now, Citi believes any pullbacks in the dollar in the coming weeks will be an opportunity to build longs for next year. They remain constructive on the U.S. currency, looking for the euro to fall to $1.10 by the summer, from its current level of $1.1527.

(Samuel Indyk)

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