Table: US natgas prices soar 11% as supplies decline, demand rises
21/02/2024 16:32
By Scott DiSavino
Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared by about 11% on Wednesday after Chesapeake Energy CHK.O - soon to be
the biggest U.S. gas producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N - cut the amount of gas it plans to pull out of
the ground in 2024 due to the recent plunge in gas prices to a 3-1/2-year low.
In addition to the Chesapeake news, traders noted gas prices gained strength from a recent drop in daily gas output and
forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 18 cents, or 11.4%, to $1.756 per
million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 11:10 a.m. EST (1510 GMT). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest since June 2020.
In the spot market, meanwhile, next-day gas prices fell to $1.50 per mmBtu at the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in
Louisiana and $1.40 in Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL , the lowest for both since October 2020.
Power prices for Wednesday at Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL in Texas, which includes Dallas, fell to $10 per megawatt hour,
their lowest since May 2017 when prices dropped to a record low of $8.32.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial company LSEG said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 105.6 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) so far in February from 102.1 bcfd in January, still shy of the monthly record of 106.3 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, however, output over the past six days was on track to drop by 2.2 bcfd to a preliminary three-week low of
103.8 bcfd on Wednesday.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 7.
With warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would fall from 130.0 bcfd this
week to 119.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next
week was higher.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 13.6 bcfd so far in February,
down from 13.9 bcfd in January and a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.
Analysts do not expect U.S. LNG feedgas to return to record levels until Freeport LNG is back at full power, which could occur
in late February.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global
prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine.
Global gas was trading around $8 per mmBtu, which was near an eight-month low at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF)
benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and was a 33-month low for the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1 . NG/EU
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Feb 16 Feb 9 Feb 16 average
Forecast Actual Feb 16
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -82 -49 -75 -168
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,453 2,535 2,205 2,019
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 21.5% 15.9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2023 (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1 1.73 1.58 2.44 2.66 3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 7.50 7.50 16.52 13.04 14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 8.37 8.57 16.87 14.39 14.31
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 276 289 315 364 354
U.S. GFS CDDs 5 4 21 9 7
U.S. GFS TDDs 281 293 336 373 361
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2019-2023)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 105.9 105.0 105.1 101.3 92.4
U.S. Imports from Canada 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.7 9.1
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 114.7 113.9 114.0 110.0 101.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.6 2.7
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.5 6.3 6.4 5.8 5.2
U.S. LNG Exports 13.9 13.4 13.1 12.8 8.4
U.S. Commercial 13.7 14.8 12.5 14.1 16.3
U.S. Residential 22.1 23.9 19.4 22.6 27.6
U.S. Power Plant 32.3 35.1 32.5 30.3 29.3
U.S. Industrial 24.5 24.9 24.0 24.1 25.4
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 100.7 106.8 96.3 99.1 106.7
Total U.S. Demand 124.6 130.0 119.3 120.3 123.0
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021
% of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual
Apr-Sep 81 79 83 107 81
Jan-Jul 83 81 77 102 79
Oct-Sep 82 81 76 103 81
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Feb 23 Feb 16 Feb 9 Feb 2 Jan 26
Wind 12 11 14 9 7
Solar 4 4 3 3 2
Hydro 7 7 7 7 6
Other 1 1 1 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 41 41 38 40 43
Coal 15 16 16 18 22
Nuclear 20 21 21 20 19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 1.50 1.55
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 1.56 1.59
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 2.89 2.83
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 1.37 1.41
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 1.40 1.48
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 2.66 2.99
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 2.60 1.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 0.39 0.73
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 1.15 1.20
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 43.50 33.00
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 24.00 23.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 10.00 20.75
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 68.25 65.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 26.25 20.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 25.00 19.50
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
((For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
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