US natgas prices ease on larger-than-expected storage injection (updated)
25/04/2024 15:34
(Adds latest prices)
April 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Thursday after hitting their lowest in a month, pressured by U.S.
government data showing a bigger-than-expected storage build last week.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 1.5 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at
$1.64 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added a larger-than-expected 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) of
gas out of storage during the week ended April 19. That exceeded the 82-bcf injection analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, the
injection of 77 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 59 bcf for this time of year.
EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
The infusion left gas stockpiles about 22% above normal levels for this time of year.
"Injection number came in higher than expected and so it's way above the seasonal average and it's reminding people that
there's still a glut of natural gas," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
LSEG forecasts gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to fall to 91.6 bcfd next week, from 97.4 bcfd this week.
"The power burn is incredible, and it seems that the demand for natural gas is stronger because of the low prices and we're
still in the process of the supply side catching up with the demand side," Flynn added.
Financial company LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states had fallen to an average of 96.8 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) in April from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was at 11.3 bcfd as the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG fell to 0.1 bcfd from 0.5 bcfd on
Monday.
However, the first tanker set sail from Freeport LNG's Texas export terminal on Tuesday, raising hopes of a resumption of gas
processing after an outage earlier this month.
"The (natgas) prices have stabilized between $1.60/mmbtu and $2/mmbtu and remain weak for several reasons, including continued
warmer than normal weather, which has curbed heating and power demand in March and April, and an extended outage at the Freeport
LNG facility, which curbed feedgas demand by +100 Bcf since January," BofA Research said in a note dated Wednesday.
U.S. gas production has dropped by around 10% in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy
CHK.O , delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and
March.
EQT is the biggest U.S. gas producer, but Chesapeake is on track to claim that title after its merger with Southwestern Energy
SWN.N .
Meanwhile, in Europe gas prices continued an upwards trend for the second session in a row due to outages in Norway, which
reduced pipeline gas supply. NG/EU
Week ended Year ago Five-year
Week ended Apr 12 Apr 19 average
Apr 19 Actual Apr 19
Actual
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +50 +77 +59
+92
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,333 1,986 1,770
2.425
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 36.4%
37%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average Average
2023 (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1 2.20 2.66 3.60
1.66 1.80
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 13.49 13.04 14.39
9.41 8.82
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 12.34 14.39 14.31
10.44 10.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
64 71 131 151 153
U.S. GFS CDDs
73 70 31 37 34
U.S. GFS TDDs
137 141 162 188 187
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2019-2023)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.3 95.0
97.3 96.8 97.0
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.6 7.8
6.9 7.1 6.8
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
Total U.S. Supply 108.9 102.8
104.2 103.9 103.8
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 1.9 2.4
2.7 2.1 2.1
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.0 5.4
6.8 6.7 6.5
U.S. LNG Exports 14.4 10.1
10.7 11.6 11.5
U.S. Commercial 7.4 8.4
6.7 7.8 5.8
U.S. Residential 9.6 11.8
8.0 10.1 6.3
U.S. Power Plant 25.6 22.7
28.5 28.8 30.3
U.S. Industrial 21.5 25.9
22.5 23.3 22.2
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 5.0
4.8 4.8 4.8
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.3
1.9 2.0 1.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 71.2 76.2
72.6 76.9 71.5
Total U.S. Demand 93.5 94.1
92.7 97.4 91.6
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Week ended Apr 19 Apr 12 Apr 5 Mar 29
Apr 26
Wind 18 16 15 16
15
Solar 7 6 5 5
6
Hydro 7 7 7 8
7
Other 2 1 1 1
1
Petroleum 0 0 0 0
0
Natural Gas 35 37 38 38
37
Coal 13 13 13 13
13
Nuclear 19 20 20 19
20
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
1.60 1.59
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.53 1.49
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
2.25 2.34
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.37 1.44
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
1.40 1.49
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.56 1.67
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
1.75 1.66
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
0.34 1.37
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.04 1.11
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
25.75 27.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
27.50 32.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
14.50 34.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
38.07 37.50
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
1.50 3.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
-1.75 -1.50
(Reporting by Daksh Grover in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis, Marguerita Choy and David Gregorio)
((Daksh.Grover@thomsonreuters.com;))
((For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
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