US natgas prices jump 6% to 15-week high on rising LNG feedgas (updated)
13/05/2024 19:22
(Adds latest prices)
By Scott DiSavino
May 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a 15-week high on Monday on lifted demand forecasts for
next week as gas flows increased to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants with the return of Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
Still, there is a big oversupply of gas in storage and output rose over the past several days.
Analysts forecast the amount of gas in storage was around 31% above normal levels for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 12.9 cents, or 5.7%, to settle at
$2.381 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Jan. 29.
The contract remained in technically overbought territory for a seventh day in a row for the first time since April 2022.
With gas prices up about 40% over the past two weeks, speculators last week switched their futures and options positions on
the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges from net short to net long for the first time since mid-January, according
to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd)
so far in May, down from 98.1 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output rose about 1.9 bcfd over the past five days to a four-week high of 98.0 bcfd on Sunday with the
return from maintenance of some gas pipes in Texas from a 15-week low of 96.1 bcfd on May 7.
Despite rising output over the weekend, U.S. gas production remained down about 8% so far in 2024 after several energy firms,
including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O , delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after
prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
EQT is the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with
Southwestern Energy SWN.N .
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through May 28, except for some
warmer-than-normal days from May 18-22.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 92.1 bcfd this week to 92.9 bcfd next week. The
forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose from an average of 11.9 bcfd in April to 12.7 bcfd so far in May with
the return of the 2.1-bcfd Freeport plant in Texas. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global
prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and $10 at the
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1 . NG/EU
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
May 10 May 3 May 10 average
Actual Actual May 10
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +80 +79 +93 +90
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,643 2,563 2,212 2,013
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 31.3% 33.3%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average Average
2023 (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1 2.28 2.25 2.30 2.66 3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 9.39 9.42 9.97 13.04 14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 10.48 10.46 10.45 14.39 14.31
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 33 52 39 56 56
U.S. GFS CDDs 104 81 81 89 88
U.S. GFS TDDs 137 133 120 145 144
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2019-2023)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 97.2 97.7 97.1 102.5 94.4
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.5 7.0 6.8 6.9 7.5
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total U.S. Supply 104.7 104.7 103.9 109.7 101.9
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.8 2.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.6 5.5 6.3 6.1 5.6
U.S. LNG Exports 12.4 13.2 12.9 12.8 8.8
U.S. Commercial 5.6 5.3 4.8 5.1 5.8
U.S. Residential 6.0 5.2 4.4 5.0 6.9
U.S. Power Plant 32.7 32.4 34.0 34.2 28.4
U.S. Industrial 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.3 21.5
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 72.9 71.5 71.7 72.4 69.4
Total U.S. Demand 94.1 92.1 92.9 94.1 86.2
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021
% of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual
Apr-Sep 75 76 83 107 81
Jan-Jul 76 77 77 102 79
Oct-Sep 78 79 76 103 81
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
May 17 May 10 May 3 Apr 26 Apr 19
Wind 10 13 14 16 16
Solar 7 6 6 6 6
Hydro 9 7 7 7 7
Other 1 1 1 1 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 40 41 40 37 37
Coal 14 14 13 13 13
Nuclear 20 19 19 19 20
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 2.14 2.03
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 1.60 1.61
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 2.57 2.54
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 1.45 1.54
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 1.68 1.68
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 1.65 1.69
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 1.73 1.82
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 1.70 0.32
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 0.95 0.98
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 24.75 27.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 22.50 30.25
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 20.00 28.75
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 42.25 55.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 6.25 17.5
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 1.50 11.50
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis and David Gregorio)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
((For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
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