US natgas prices little changed as colder forecasts offset storage oversupply (updated)
19/04/2024 19:55
(Adds latest prices)
By Scott DiSavino
April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Friday as bullish forecasts for cooler weather and
more demand next week than previously expected and a continued drop in output offset bearish negative spot power and gas prices
and a massive oversupply of gas in storage.
Analysts forecast stockpiles were currently around 35% above normal levels for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
U.S. gas production has dropped by around 10% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake
Energy CHK.O , delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in
February and March.
EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with
Southwestern Energy SWN.N .
U.S. drillers cut the number of gas rigs operating by three to 106, their lowest since December 2021, according to energy
services firm Baker Hughes BKR.O .
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.5 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at
$1.752 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
That put the contract down about 1% for a second week in a row.
In the spot market, power and gas prices in many states, including Texas, California and Arizona, have traded below zero
several times this spring due to low demand, ample renewable power supplies and pipeline maintenance that has trapped gas in
Texas.
Next-day gas at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas rose to negative 69 cents per mmBtu on
Thursday, the ninth day in a row that Waha prices have averaged below zero, according to data from SNL Energy on the LSEG
terminal.
In California, meanwhile, next-day power at South Path-15 (SP-15) EL-PK-SP15-SNL in the southern part of the state plunged
by about 107% to a one-week low of negative $1 per megawatt hour on Thursday.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 98.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd)
so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by about 2.7 bcfd over the past seven days to a preliminary three-month low of
95.9 bcfd on Friday.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through April 26 before
turning warmer than normal from April 27-May 4.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 91.9 bcfd this week to 97.5 bcfd next week before
sliding to 94.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 11.8 bcfd so far in April,
down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a preliminary 11.0 bcfd on Friday, up from a 15-month low of 9.2 bcfd on
Tuesday when feedgas declined at several facilities, including Freeport LNG in Texas, Cameron LNG in Louisiana, and Cheniere
Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas.
Since Tuesday, gas flows have increased at most of those plants, including Freeport. Feedgas at Freeport was on track to reach
0.3 bcfd on Friday, up from near zero over the prior seven days.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Apr 19 Apr 12 Apr 19 average
Forecast Actual Apr 19
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +64 +50 +77 +59
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,397 2,333 1,986 1,770
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 35.4% 36.4%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average Average
2023 (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1 1.75 1.76 2.20 2.66 3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 9.95 10.14 13.49 13.04 14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 10.88 10.75 12.34 14.39 14.31
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 119 110 147 141 122
U.S. GFS CDDs 52 59 31 40 44
U.S. GFS TDDs 171 169 178 181 166
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2019-2023)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 98.9 97.3 96.7 101.3 95.0
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 6.9 6.9 7.6 7.8
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total U.S. Supply 106.1 104.2 103.8 108.9 102.8
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.7 2.7 2.6 1.9 2.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.0 5.4
U.S. LNG Exports 12.6 10.7 11.2 14.4 10.1
U.S. Commercial 8.2 6.7 8.0 7.4 8.4
U.S. Residential 11.2 8.0 10.4 9.6 11.8
U.S. Power Plant 27.9 28.0 28.7 25.6 22.7
U.S. Industrial 23.1 22.5 23.4 21.5 25.9
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 77.5 71.9 77.4 71.2 76.2
Total U.S. Demand 99.3 91.9 97.5 93.5 94.1
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021
% of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual
Apr-Sep 81 80 83 107 81
Jan-Jul 81 81 77 102 79
Oct-Sep 82 82 76 103 81
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Apr 19 Apr 12 Apr 5 Mar 29 Mar 22
Wind 18 16 15 16 13
Solar 7 6 5 5 5
Hydro 7 7 7 8 8
Other 2 1 1 1 1
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 35 37 38 38 40
Coal 13 13 13 13 13
Nuclear 19 20 20 19 20
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 1.59 1.50
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 1.38 1.41
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 2.22 2.15
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 1.28 1.28
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 1.41 1.32
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 1.53 1.44
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 1.96 2.07
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL -0.69 -0.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 0.93 0.90
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 26.50 32.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 25.50 40.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 24.50 20.50
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 25.50 26.25
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 1.50 17.75
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL -1.00 15.25
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Louise Heavens)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
((For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
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