REG-Starwood European Real Estate Finance Ltd SWEF: Portfolio Update
25/01/2024 07:15
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Starwood European Real Estate Finance Ltd (SWEF)
SWEF: Portfolio Update
25-Jan-2024 / 07:00 GMT/BST
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Starwood European Real Estate Finance Limited
Quarterly Portfolio Update
0.5 pence dividend per share uplift compared to target;
resulting in a 6.0 pence per share dividend for 2023
£48.8 million repaid during the quarter across seven investments
A third capital redemption of £45.0 million undertaken in December 2023
Starwood European Real Estate Finance Limited (“SEREF” or the “Group”), a
leading investor managing and realising a diverse portfolio of high
quality senior and mezzanine real estate debt in the UK and Europe, is
pleased to present its performance for the quarter ended 31 December 2023.
Highlights
• Further realisation progress - during the quarter:
◦ A total of £48.8 million, nearly 16 per cent of the Group’s 30
September 2023 total funded loan portfolio, has been repaid
across seven investments
◦ This included the full repayment of three loans and four partial
repayments
◦ Proceeds were used in the quarter to fund the third return of
capital to shareholders of £45.0 million
• Dividend - on 25 January 2024, the Directors declared a dividend, to
be paid in February, in respect of the fourth quarter of 2023 of 1.875
pence per Ordinary Share – resulting in a dividend of 6.0 pence per
Ordinary Share for the full year - an increase of 0.5 pence per share
compared to the 2023 target of 5.5 pence per Ordinary Share. The 2024
dividend target remains at 5.5 pence per Ordinary Share
• Strong cash generation – going forward the portfolio is expected to
continue to support annual dividend payments of 5.5 pence per Ordinary
Share, paid quarterly
• All assets are constantly monitored for changes in their risk profile
– during the quarter to 31 December 2023, no changes to investment
risk classification were made and the current status of the
investments is listed below:
◦ Seven loan investments equivalent to 64 per cent of the funded
portfolio are classified in the lowest risk profile, Stage 1
◦ Four loan investments equivalent to 31 per cent of the funded
portfolio are classified as Stage 2
◦ One loan equivalent to 5 per cent of the funded portfolio is
classified as Stage 3. During the period, the Group has accounted
for an additional credit impairment of £1.7 million which is
equivalent to 0.5 per cent of Net Asset Value as at 31 December
2023. We note that despite the impairment, this loan investment
is projected to achieve local currency returns of 1.3 times the
Group’s capital invested
• The average remaining loan term of the portfolio is 1.4 years
• Inflation protection - 90.5 per cent of the portfolio is contracted at
floating interest rates (with floors)
• Robust portfolio - the loan book is performing broadly in line with
expectations with its defensive qualities reflected in the Group’s
continued NAV stability in a challenging macro environment
• Significant equity cushion - the weighted average Loan to Value for
the portfolio is 61.8 per cent
John Whittle, Chairman of SEREF, said:
“During 2023, we have continued to make strong progress on our orderly
realisation strategy, with £85.0 million being returned to shareholders
via three capital redemptions, and further substantial realisations are
expected in 2024. We have also created a cash reserve to fund the
currently unfunded loan cash commitments (£36.2 million as at 31 December
2023). At the same time, our commitment to achieving realisation in a
timely manner while retaining sufficient working capital for ongoing
operations has enabled us to make attractive annual dividend payments of
6.0 pence per Ordinary Share, paid quarterly, for 2023.
“The average remaining loan term of the portfolio is now 1.4 years and as
such we look forward to updating shareholders on further realisations in
due course.”
The factsheet for the period is available at:
1 www.starwoodeuropeanfinance.com
Share Price / NAV at 31 December 2023
Share price (p) 90.4p
NAV (p) 104.35
Discount 13.4%
Dividend yield (on share price) 6.6%
Market cap £284m
Key Portfolio Statistics at 31 December 2023
Number of investments 12
Percentage of currently invested portfolio in floating rate 90.5%
loans
Invested Loan Portfolio unlevered annualised total return (1) 8.2%
Weighted average portfolio LTV – to Group first £ (2) 14.7%
Weighted average portfolio LTV – to Group last £ (2) 61.8%
Average remaining loan term 1.4 years
Net Asset Value £327.3m
Loans advanced (including accrued interest and net of £264.1m
impairment)
Cash £63.8m
Other net liabilities (including hedges) £0.6m
Remaining years to contractual Value of loans % of invested
maturity* (£m) portfolio
0 to 1 years £121.4 46.2%
1 to 2 years £76.7 29.2%
2 to 3 years £64.6 24.6%
*excludes any permitted extensions. Note that borrowers may elect to
repay loans before contractual maturity.
Country % of invested assets
UK 65.3%
Spain 19.1%
Republic of Ireland 15.6%
Sector % of invested assets
Hospitality 45.0%
Retail 16.2%
Office 12.0%
Light Industrial & Logistics 10.3%
Healthcare 9.5%
Life Sciences 5.9%
Residential 1.1%
Loan type % of invested assets
Whole loans 74.2%
Mezzanine 25.8%
Currency % of invested assets*
Sterling 65.3%
Euro 34.7%
*the currency split refers to the underlying loan currency, however the
capital on all non-sterling exposure is hedged back to sterling.
(1) The unlevered annualised total return is calculated on amounts
outstanding at the reporting date, excluding undrawn commitments, and
assuming all drawn loans are outstanding for the full contractual term. 11
of the loans are floating rate (partially or in whole and all with floors)
and returns are based on an assumed profile for future interbank rates,
but the actual rate received may be higher or lower. Calculated only on
amounts funded at the reporting date and excluding committed amounts (but
including commitment fees) and excluding cash uninvested. The calculation
also excludes the origination fee payable to the Investment Manager.
(2) LTV to Group last £ means the percentage which the total loan drawn
less any deductible lender controlled cash reserves and less any
amortisation received to date (when aggregated with any other indebtedness
ranking alongside and/or senior to it) bears to the market value
determined by the last formal lender valuation received by the reporting
date. LTV to first Group £ means the starting point of the loan to value
range of the loans drawn (when aggregated with any other indebtedness
ranking senior to it). For development projects the calculation includes
the total facility available and is calculated against the assumed market
value on completion of the relevant project.
Orderly Realisation and Return of Capital
On 31 October 2022, the Board announced the Company’s Proposed Orderly
Realisation and Return of Capital to Shareholders. A Circular relating to
the Proposed Orderly Realisation, containing a Notice of Extraordinary
General Meeting (EGM) was published on 28 December 2022. The proposals
were approved by Shareholders at the EGM in January 2023 and the Company
is now seeking to return cash to Shareholders in an orderly manner as soon
as reasonably practicable following the repayment of loans, while
retaining sufficient working capital for ongoing operations and the
funding of committed but currently unfunded loan commitments.
In December 2023, the Company announced and implemented its third capital
distribution, returning circa £45.0 million to shareholders through the
compulsory redemption of 43,157,186 shares at a price of £1.0427 per
share. The first and second redemptions, in June and August 2023
respectively, returned circa £40.0 million in total to shareholders
through the redemption of 38,744,568 shares in aggregate. Following the
third redemption, the Company has 313,690,942 shares in issue and the
total number of voting rights is 313,690,942.
Dividend
On 25 January 2024, the Directors declared a dividend, to be paid in
February, in respect of the fourth quarter of 2023 of 1.875 pence per
Ordinary Share – resulting in a dividend of 6.0 pence per Ordinary Share
for the full year - an increase of 0.5 pence per share compared to the
2023 target of 5.5 pence per Ordinary Share. The 2024 dividend target
remains at 5.5 pence per Ordinary Share
Portfolio Update
The Group continues to closely monitor and manage the credit quality of
its loan exposures and repayments. Despite continued risk around high
interest rates, volatile economic conditions and lower transaction
volumes, the portfolio has continued to perform well.
Significant loan repayments totalling £48.8 million, equivalent to nearly
16 per cent of the 30 September 2023 total funded portfolio balance, were
received during the quarter to 31 December 2023. This included full
repayment of three loan investments following successful underlying
property sales: £20.5 million Office, London, €18.8 million Office, Madrid
and €3.7 million Mixed Portfolio, Europe investments. These repayments
mark a significant 55 per cent reduction in the Group’s exposure to the
Office sector.
The Group’s remaining exposure is spread across twelve investments. 99 per
cent of the total funded loan portfolio as at 31 December 2023 is spread
across six asset classes; hospitality (45 per cent), retail (16 per cent),
office (12 per cent), light industrial & logistics (10 per cent),
healthcare (10 per cent) and life sciences (6 per cent).
Hospitality exposure (45 per cent) is diversified across five loan
investments. Two loans (19 per cent of hospitality exposure) benefit from
State/Government licences in place at the properties and benefit from
significant amortisation that continues to decrease these loan exposures.
One loan (32 per cent of hospitality exposure) has two underlying key UK
gateway city hotel assets, both of which are undergoing comprehensive
refurbishment programmes. The remaining two loans (49 per cent of
hospitality exposure) have both been recently refurbished. The Group
expects its exposure to hospitality to significantly reduce during 2024
from a combination of planned asset sales and refinancings of stabilised,
strong performing assets. The weighted average loan to value of the
hospitality exposure is 52 per cent.
The retail exposure (16 per cent) is spread across two remaining
investments, with four underlying shopping centre assets providing
collateral against the two loans. While investor sentiment and
transactional activity in this asset class has been very low for a
prolonged period, operational performance has recovered strongly post
pandemic and the assets are performing well. The sponsor of these loans is
in the advanced stages of selling three of the four assets to a cash buyer
with a proven transaction track record. The sale is expected to complete
during Q1 2024. The sale and subsequent loan repayments are projected to
reduce the Groups exposure to retail by over 60 percent, with a remaining
projected loan balance of under £16 million with strong interest coverage
based on current trading performance. Executing a sale of these assets in
a difficult market is considered a very positive result. However as
outlined in the credit risk section, we have increased the impairment
provision against the Shopping Centre, Spain loan by £1.7 million based on
expected net sales proceeds. This new provision equates to 0.5 per cent of
the Groups Net Asset Value as at 31 December 2023. Despite the projected
impairment, this loan investment is currently projected to recover 1.3
times the Groups capital invested. The weighted average loan to value of
the retail exposure is 91 per cent. The value basis of this calculation is
the lower of projected sale values and most recent third party independent
appraisals.
The office exposure (12 per cent) is spread across three loan investments.
This exposure has significantly decreased by 55 per cent in the quarter
under review, predominately due to the repayment of three loans following
successful sale processes. The weighted average loan to value of loans
with office exposure is 77 per cent. The average age of these
independently instructed valuation reports is less than one year and hence
there continues to be sufficient headroom to the Group’s loan basis on
these loans.
Light industrial & logistics and healthcare exposure comprise 10 per cent
each, totalling 20 per cent of the total funded portfolio (across two
investments) and provides good diversification into asset classes that
continue to have very strong occupational and investor demand. Weighted
average loan to value of these exposures is 57 per cent.
On a portfolio level we continue to benefit from material headroom in
underlying collateral value against the loan basis, with a current
weighted average loan to value of 62 per cent. These metrics are based on
independent third party appraisals (with the exception of two loans that
have been marked against a sale process bid level). These appraisals are
typically updated annually for income producing assets. The weighted
average age of valuations is seven months.
Credit Risk Analysis
All loans within the portfolio are classified and measured at amortised
cost less impairment.
During the quarter there have been no changes to the existing credit risk
levels for any of the loans in the portfolio, however we have recognised
an additional impairment of £1.7 million, equivalent to 0.5 per cent of
the Group’s Net Asset Value as at 31 December 2023.
The Group follows a three-stage model for impairment based on changes in
credit quality since initial recognition as summarised below:
• A financial instrument that is not credit-impaired on initial
recognition is classified as Stage 1 and has its credit risk
continuously monitored by the Group. The expected credit loss (“ECL”)
is measured over a 12-month period of time.
• If a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition is
identified, the financial instrument is moved to Stage 2 but is not
yet deemed to be credit-impaired. The ECL is measured on a lifetime
basis.
• If the financial instrument is credit-impaired it is then moved to
Stage 3. The ECL is measured on a lifetime basis.
The Group closely monitors all loans in the portfolio for any
deterioration in credit risk. As at 31 December 2023, assigned
classifications are:
• Stage 1 loans – seven loan investments equivalent to 64 per cent of
the funded portfolio are classified in the lowest risk profile, Stage
1.
• Stage 2 loans – four loan investments equivalent to 31 per cent of the
funded portfolio are classified as Stage 2. The average loan to value
of these exposures is 73 per cent. The average age of valuation report
dates used in the loan to value calculation is eight months old. While
these loans are considered to be higher risk than at initial
recognition, no loss has been recognised on a twelve-month and
lifetime expected credit losses basis. Therefore, no impairment in the
value of these loans has been recognised. The drivers for classifying
these deals as Stage 2 are typically either one or a combination of
the below factors:
◦ lower underlying property values following receipt of updated
formal appraisals by independent valuers or agreed and in
exclusivity sale values;
◦ sponsor business plans progressing more slowly than originally
underwritten meaning that trading performance has lagged
expectation and operating financial covenants under the facility
agreements have breached; and
◦ additional equity support is required to cover interest or
operating shortfalls as a result of slower lease up or operations
taking longer to ramp up.
The Stage 2 loans continue to benefit from headroom to the Group’s
investment basis. The Group has a strategy for each of these deals which
targets full loan repayment over a defined period of time. Timing of
repayment will vary depending on the level of equity support from
sponsors. Typically, where sponsors are willing to inject additional
equity to partially pay down the loans and support their business plan
execution, then the Group will grant some temporary financial covenant
headroom. Otherwise, sponsors are running sale processes to sell assets
and repay their loans.
• Stage 3 loan – one loan equivalent to 5 per cent of the funded
portfolio is classified as Stage 3. This investment has a loan to
value of 110 per cent. This value is based on the projected net
proceeds which are expected to be available for loan repayment upon
sale of the underlying loan collateral. The sponsor has run a
comprehensive competitive sale process through a global advisory firm
with oversight by the lenders and the bidder has a proven execution
track record in the same asset class and deal size and intends to
close with all equity with no reliance on debt. Given continued
capital markets volatility, materially lower transaction volumes and
uncertainty regarding interest rates, the Group has approved the sale.
The sale process is now in the advanced stages and is expected to
occur during Q1 2024.
Based on the advanced stage of sale process and agreed sale price level,
the Group has accounted for an additional credit impairment of £1.7
million which is equivalent to circa 0.7 per cent of total funded loan
portfolio and 0.5 per cent of Net Asset Value as at 31 December 2023. The
total amount of the impairment accounted for against this asset is £3.5
million, equivalent to 1 per cent of the funded portfolio as at 31
December 2023. We note that despite the impairment, this loan investment
is projected to achieve local currency returns of 1.3 times the Group’s
capital invested.
This assessment has been made based on information in our possession at
the date of reporting, our assessment of the risks of each loan and
certain estimates and judgements around future performance of the assets.
Repayments
During the quarter borrowers repaid at total of £48.8 million under the
following loan obligations:
• £20.5 million, Office, London (repayment of loan in full)
• €18.8 million, Office, Madrid, Spain (repayment of loan in full)
• £4.0 million, Life Science, UK (partial repayment of loan)
• €4.6 million, Hotel, Dublin (partial repayment of loan)
• €3.7 million, Mixed Portfolio, Europe (repayment of loan in full)
• £0.5 million, Hotel and Office, Northern Ireland (partial repayment of
loan)
• €0.3 million, Three Shopping Centres, Spain (scheduled amortisation)
These repayments were used in the quarter to fund the third return of
capital to Shareholders (which amounted to circa £45.0 million).
Market commentary and outlook
The volatility in inflation and interest rates expectations has been the
most important macro factor affecting real estate markets over the past
two years. Fast movements in inflation and the resulting speed of central
banks responses created uncertainty in real estate valuation and led to
significantly lower transaction volumes. According to CBRE research, 2023
had the lowest level of investment volume since the GFC with volumes half
of the levels of recent years.
Improving inflation data has led to significant momentum in the
expectations for continued moderation of inflation and a knock-on effect
of decreasing interest rates. US Inflation has declined from a high of
9.1 per cent in June 2022 to 3.4 per cent in December 2023, UK inflation
from 11.1 per cent in November 2022 to 4.0 per cent in December 2023 and
Eurozone inflation from 10.6 per cent in October 2022 to 2.9 per cent in
December 2023. While the general momentum is towards more normal target
levels, movement has not all been one way. December inflation in the US
ticked up 0.3% versus November and in the United Kingdom the December
inflation number came in higher than expected at 4 per cent versus
expectations of 3.8 per cent and up from 3.9 per cent in November of
2023. However, the 4 per cent number remains below the Bank of England
forecast of 4.6 per cent. As a result of the data, on the day of release
the swaps market pricing of Bank of England cuts in 2024 reduced, with
~113 basis points priced for 2024 versus 135 basis points on the previous
day and 163 basis points at the start of the year)
As a result of the general trend downward in inflation, US 10 Year
Treasury yields are now at circa 4.1% having reached 5.0 per cent in
October 2023, UK 10 Year Gilt rates are circa 4.0 per cent down from 4.7
per cent in October of 2023 and German 10 Year yields are circa 2.3 per
cent vs. 3.0% in October of 2023. Investors continue to compare
fixed-income returns with real estate yields, so as bond yields decrease,
real estate yields are likely to follow. Real estate is a
capital-intensive investment and the lower interest rate environment
reduces the cost and improves the availability of debt, boosting levered
returns. European commercial real estate is typically financed using 3 to
5-year floating rate debt and the key benchmark for financing cost is the
5-year swap. The GBP and EUR 5-year swaps currently stand at circa 3.8 per
cent and 2.6 per cent respectively, having peaked at 5.2 per cent and 3.4
per cent.
The price of these longer-term interest rate instruments is determined by
market expectations of future interest rate moves. Currently, pricing
reflects expectations of significant interest rate cuts over the coming
quarters. For example, in the US, while rates have not yet been lowered,
the guidance from dot plots provided by the Federal Reserve, show an
expectation of three 25 basis point cuts in 2024. Yet, the market is
currently pricing in twice as much reduction demonstrating its
expectations of a faster fall in inflation. The pattern is similar in
the UK and the Eurozone as while central banks are determined to defeat
inflation and have flagged that they are likely to continue with the
approach being more cautious on the hawkish side, markets are projecting
the data will allow them to cut earlier.
Generally the stabilised interest rate environment should lead to a more
normalised volume of real estate transactions, however there is still risk
around the path to stabilisation of interest rates which could continue to
subdue transaction volumes. In particular geo-political events such as
the disruption of Red Sea shipping routes that could delay and increase
the cost of moving goods and commodities and disrupt supply chains could
disrupt the path of inflation.
Nevertheless there is a significant amount of commercial real estate
focussed dry powder. Currently the proportion of capital is more
concentrated on value add and opportunistic strategies and less on
cheaper, core equity. The Investment Advisor recently attended the
Commercial Real Estate Finance Council conference in Miami and while there
are some problem areas (such as low quality office and distress for thinly
capitalised developers), it was clear that bank sentiment is meaningfully
better than this time last year. There is a high degree of confidence in
US CMBS bond issuance from the large US banks. While CMBS plays a smaller
part of the European market, the health of the US CMBS market is a
bellwether for real estate finance sentiment. Spread tightening in
secondary trading has already showed a stronger market appetite as
investors move off the side-lines into what is still a cheaper sector.
The banks are expecting healthy volumes of new issuance being cleared
efficiently by the market with further tightening also on the cards which
will further support sentiment for commercial real estate.
Investment Portfolio at 31 December 2023
As at 31 December 2023, the Group had 12 investments and commitments of
£298.9 million as follows:
Sterling Sterling equivalent Sterling Total
equivalent balance unfunded commitment (Drawn and
(1), (2) (3) Unfunded)
Hospitals, UK £25.0 m £25.0 m
Hotel, Scotland £42.5 m £42.5 m
Hotel, North £15.0 m £15.0 m
Berwick
Life Science, UK £15.5 m £4.0 m £19.5 m
Hotel and Office, £8.8 m £8.8 m
Northern Ireland
Hotels, United £37.5 m £13.2 m £50.7 m
Kingdom
Industrial Estate, £27.2 m £19.0 m £46.2 m
UK
Total Sterling £171.5 m £36.2 m £207.7 m
Loans
Three Shopping £28.4 m £28.4 m
Centres, Spain
Shopping Centre , £14.1 m £14.1 m
Spain (2)
Hotel, Dublin £19.9 m £19.9 m
Office Portfolio, £7.6 m £7.6 m
Spain
Office Portfolio, £21.2 m £21.2 m
Ireland
Total Euro Loans £91.2 m £91.2 m
Total Portfolio £262.7 m £36.2 m £298.9 m
1. Euro balances translated to sterling at period end exchange rate.
2. Balances shown are funded balances before any impairments.
3. These amounts exclude interest which may be capitalised.
Loan to Value (LTV)
All assets securing the loans undergo third party valuations before each
investment closes and periodically thereafter at a time considered
appropriate by the lenders. The LTVs shown below are based on independent
third party appraisals with the exception of two loans that have been
marked against a sale process bid level. The current weighted average age
of the dates of these valuations for the whole portfolio is just over
seven months.
On the basis of the methodology and valuation processes previously
disclosed (see 30 September 2020 factsheet with the exceptions as noted
above) at 31 December 2023 the Group has an average last £ LTV of 61.8 per
cent (30 September 2023: 58.3 per cent).
The table below shows the sensitivity of the loan to value calculation for
movements in the underlying property valuation and demonstrates that the
Group has considerable headroom within the currently reported last LTVs.
Change in Hospitality Retail Office Light Industrial & Other Total
Valuation Logistics
-15% 60.5% 107.1% 90.3% 75.5% 57.4% 72.7%
-10% 57.2% 101.1% 85.3% 71.3% 54.2% 68.6%
-5% 54.2% 95.8% 80.8% 67.6% 51.3% 65.0%
0% 51.5% 91.0% 76.8% 64.2% 48.8% 61.8%
5% 49.0% 86.7% 73.1% 61.1% 46.5% 58.8%
10% 46.8% 82.8% 69.8% 58.3% 44.3% 56.2%
15% 44.8% 79.2% 66.8% 55.8% 42.4% 53.7%
Share Price performance
The Company's shares closed on 31 December 2023 at 90.4 pence, resulting
in a share price total return for the fourth quarter of 2023 of 4.6 per
cent. As at 31 December 2023, the discount to NAV stood at 13.4 per cent,
with an average discount to NAV of 16.0 per cent over the quarter.
Note: the 31 December 2023 discount to NAV is based off the current 31
December 2023 NAV as reported in this factsheet. All average discounts to
NAV are calculated as the latest cum-dividend NAV available in the market
on a given day, adjusted for any dividend payments from the ex-dividend
date onwards.
For further information, please contact:
Apex Fund and Corporate Services (Guernsey) Limited
as Company Secretary
Duke Le Prevost
+44 (0)20 3530 3630
Starwood Capital
Duncan MacPherson +44 (0) 20 7016 3655
Jefferies International Limited
Gaudi Le Roux
Harry Randall
+44 (0) 20 7029 8000
Ollie Nott
Buchanan +44 (0) 20 7466 5000
Helen Tarbet +44 (0) 7788 528 143
Henry Wilson
Notes:
Starwood European Real Estate Finance Limited is an investment company
listed on the premium segment of the main market of the London Stock
Exchange with an investment objective to conduct an orderly realisation of
the assets of the Company. 2 www.starwoodeuropeanfinance.com.
The Group's assets are managed by Starwood European Finance Partners
Limited, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the Starwood Capital
Group.
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Dissemination of a Regulatory Announcement that contains inside
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transmitted by EQS Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
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ISIN: GG00BQRGMH31
Category Code: PFU
TIDM: SWEF
LEI Code: 5493004YMVUQ9Z7JGZ50
OAM Categories: 3.1. Additional regulated information required to be
disclosed under the laws of a Member State
Sequence No.: 299510
EQS News ID: 1822381
End of Announcement EQS News Service
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