Berenberg sees the end of luxury 'super cycle', cuts Kering, LVMH

Swatch groupAG

16/10/2025 09:14

** Berenberg says it believes the luxury super cycle is over after three decades due to structural demand problem, in contrast to sector bulls and management who position the issues as mainly supply driven

** "We believe the 2020s will be defined by structural headwinds in the form of constrained Chinese consumption, a sustained squeeze of aspirational spend, and a lack of engagement by Gen Z," it says

** It estimates medium-term growth of just 2-3% annually, far below the historical norm of around 6%

** The broker cuts its rating on French luxury behemoth LVMH LVMH.PA to "hold" from "buy" and Gucci owner Kering PRTP.PA to "sell" from "hold"

** Kering's stock is down around 2% following a 5% rise on Wednesday after LVMH's sales beat spurred sector rally

** Meanwhile, Berenberg says it remains positive on "absolute luxury" players shielded from mid-income softness, reiterating "buy" ratings on Brunello Cucinelli BCU.MI, Ferrari RACE.MI, and Hermes HRMS.PA

COMPANY
RATING
OLD RATING
PT
OLD PT
KERING
SELL
HOLD
EUR 160.00
EUR 160.00
LVMH
HOLD
BUY
EUR 570.00
EUR 570.00

 (Reporting by Mateusz Rabiega)

 ((mateusz.rabiega@thomsonreuters.com))