Live Markets: Will stocks feel the love of the Valentine's Day effect?

TAG Immobilien AG

12/02/2024 11:26

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      STOXX 600 up 0.4%
    

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      Most Asia-Pac markets closed for holiday
    

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      S&P futures steady
    

  
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    WILL STOCKS FEEL THE LOVE OF THE VALENTINE'S DAY EFFECT? 
    Wednesday marks Valentine's Day in much of the
English-speaking world and traders may be interested in a quirk
heading to the big day. 
    According to eToro global markets strategist Ben Laidler,
the little-known 'Valentine's Day Effect' can give a boost to
stock prices. 
    "There is a 'Valentine's Day' rally effect driven by
'romantic sentiment' and consumer optimism," Laidler writes. 
    "With evidence the S&P 500 gives over twice the typical
return in the days leading to Feb. 14th," Laidler adds, citing
research from independent trader Oddmund Groette. 
    Groette notes that if you bought the benchmark index on Feb.
10, or later if it's a non-trading day, and sold on Feb. 14 or
the next trading day, back-test results show that, on average,
the trade showed a 62% win rate and a return of 0.32% over 2.8
days, "indicating a notable Valentine's Day Rally effect". 
    If you had been planning to splurge on goods for your loved
one(s), then 2024 might be the year to avoid buying chocolate. 
    Cocoa  LCCc1  prices surged over 16% last week, hitting new
records for a ninth straight day on Friday, having nearly
doubled in the last year. 
    "It may get worse before it gets better," Laidler says, "as
manufacturers like Switzerland's Barry Callebaut and Nestle or
the US' Hershey run through their lower-priced inventory and
must raise prices."
    This year, the wise among you might ditch the bonbons and
splash out on an S&P index tracker instead. 
     
    (Samuel Indyk)
    *****
       
    FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
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CLICK HERE  
    THE YEN'S "DEPRESSING" CARRY TRADE CLICK HERE
    SEA OF GREEN FOR EUROPEAN MARKETS CLICK HERE   
    EUROPEAN SHARES SET TO CONTINUE MARCH HIGHER CLICK HERE  
    US INFLATION LOOMS LARGE WITH ASIA ON HOLIDAY CLICK HERE
        
  

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