Live Markets: TSMC earnings could cause another round of consensus upgrades

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

07/10/2026 13:36

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TSMC EARNINGS COULD CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONSENSUS UPGRADES 
Third quarter earnings season gets going in earnest next week, with big US banks as is traditional, but there will be at least as many eyes on another important bellwether on the other side of the world in the form of TSMC 2330.TW, as the AI trade remains right at the top of traders' minds. 
The chip giant reports on October 15, and Citi have a note out Wednesday predicting the earnings will drive a new round of consensus earnings upgrades. 
"We expect TSMC to beat its recently raised guidance once again," they say, forecasting full-year revenue to rise 46% YoY and 4Q revenue to be up around 15% QoQ. 
The note is full of punchy expectations as AI spending keeps on going. Citi expect TSMC’s AI revenue growth to nearly double next year, based on the fact most of its AI semiconductor customers are expecting accelerating growth. 
Nvidia for example has guided to a doubling of its order intake, while the CEO of its rival AMD is in Taiwan this week in part to ensure its supply chain can ramp up production to meet growing AI demand. 
Of course, if TSMC fails to meet such high expectations, that could jolt what is still one of the hottest themes. 

(Alun John)     
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