US natgas futures fall as West Virginia pipe returns, Northeast spot drops to multi-year lows

TC Energy

28/09/2026 15:03

Mountaineer XPress return signals stronger Marcellus and Utica flows in coming days
Storage surplus seen shrinking to 2.4% above five-year norm before Thursday's EIA report
Nor'easter knocks Northeast spot prices below $1, with regional lows spanning 2020-2023
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures fell about 3% on Monday on expectations daily output will soon rise with the return to service of the Mountaineer XPress pipe in West Virginia over the weekend, while spot prices in the Northeast dropped to multi-year lows over a stormy weekend.
On its last day as the front month, gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.1 cents, or 3.2%, to $3.095 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
Futures for November NGX26, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 3% to $3.13 per mmBtu.
In the spot market, next-day spot prices fell below $1 per mmBtu in New York (lowest since 2020), New England (lowest since 2022) and the Mid-Atlantic (lowest since 2023) as demand for the fuel fell with a powerful nor'easter storm hitting the region over the weekend.
     
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 112.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, tying the monthly record high of 112.3 bcfd in August.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop to a near-seven-month low of 107.5 bcfd on Monday, due in part to work on the Mountaineer XPress pipe in West Virginia.
Canadian energy firm TC Energy's TRP.TO Columbia Gas Transmission unit lifted the force majeure on its Mountaineer XPress pipe on Sunday, a sign that more gas will flow out of the Marcellus/Utica shale region in coming days.
Columbia Gas Transmission declared the force majeure on Thursday, affecting around 1.4 to 1.8 bcfd of gas flows, due to a mechanical issue.
Record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March, reaching a high of 7.7% above normal in April.
But hotter-than-normal weather over the summer forced energy firms to pull lots of gas from storage to produce the power needed to keep air conditioners humming, cutting the inventory surplus. About 40% of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
With the weather still hotter than normal last week, analysts predicted the amount of gas in storage slid to 2.4% above normal during the week ended September 25, down from 2.9% above normal the previous week, according to estimates ahead of Thursday's weekly federal inventory report. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking forward, however, meteorologists have predicted the weather will remain mostly near normal through October 13.
With the weather turning seasonally cooler, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 103.1 bcfd this week to 105.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants rose to 18.0 bcfd so far in September, up from 17.3 bcfd in August, but have remained short of the monthly record high of 18.9 bcfd in April.
     
 
Week ended Sep 25 Forecast
Week ended  Sep 18 Actual
Year ago Sep 25
Five-year average (2021-2025) Sep 25
 
 
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+65
+53
+56
+80
 
US total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,416
3,351
3,553
3,336
 
US total storage versus 5-year average
+2.4%
+2.9%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.06
3.20
3.01
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
24.69
24.09
11.13
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
25.82
26.38
11.32
12.24
18.12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Two-Week Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
67
58
40
70
90
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
89
91
92
80
61
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
156
149
132
150
151
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Month Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
US Supply (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
US Lower 48 Dry Production
111.6
108.9
109.8
107.4
101.5
US Imports from Canada
7.1
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.7
US LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total US Supply
118.7
116.3
117.2
114.8
109.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
US Demand (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
US Exports to Canada
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.3
US Exports to Mexico
7.7
7.7
7.6
6.9
6.8
US LNG Export Feedgas
17.6
18.0
18.1
15.8
12.6
US Commercial
5.3
5.3
6.2
4.8
5.0
US Residential
4.2
4.5
5.6
3.9
3.9
US Power Plant
40.7
35.8
35.5
39.8
38.4
US Industrial
22.1
22.1
22.4
22.0
22.1
US Plant Fuel
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.3
US Pipe Distribution
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.9
US Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total US Consumption
80.1
75.2
77.4
78.2
77.8
Total US Demand
107.9
103.1
105.3
103.3
99.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
N/A = Not Available
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026  Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024 % of Normal Actual
2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep 
83
83
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
90
90
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
93
93
80
77
76
 
 
 
 
 
 
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
Week ended Oct 2
Week ended Sep 25
2025
2024
2023
Wind
10
8
11
11
10
Solar
9
7
6
5
4
Hydro
4
4
6
6
6
Other
2
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
39
43
40
42
41
Coal
15
17
18
16
17
Nuclear
20
18
18
19
19
 
 
 
 
 
 
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.21
3.00
2.97
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
0.74
1.30
1.85
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.56
3.56
3.74
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
0.76
1.27
1.75
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.71
2.64
2.81
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
0.94
1.46
2.18
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.50
3.57
3.11
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
2.16
2.15
-0.06
1.03
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.32
1.30
0.22
1.13
2.13
 
 
 
 
 
 
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
45.00
37.07
38.84
77.12
61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
58.85
44.98
51.24
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
45.81
32.67
56.16
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
28.86
28.50
38.04
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
29.95
30.23
36.05
28.44
53.02
     

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci )
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))