Analysis: Musk's Starlink races with Chinese rivals to dominate satellite internet

Telesat

24/02/2025 03:00

* 
      Musk's Starlink facing fresh competition from China's
SpaceSail,
Bezos's Project Kuiper 
    

        * 
      Beijing investing heavily in LEO satellites that can
supply
reliable internet
    

        * 
      Western analysts worried that Beijing could use satellites
to
expand internet censorship in Global South
    

  
    By Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Eduardo Baptista, Lisandra
Paraguassu, Ricardo Brito
       BENGALURU/BEIJING/BRASILIA, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Space is
about to get more crowded for Elon Musk.
    The billionaire's Starlink communications network is facing
increasingly stiff challenges to its dominance of high-speed
satellite internet, including from a Chinese state-backed rival
and another service financed by Amazon.com  AMZN.O  founder Jeff
Bezos. 
    Shanghai-based SpaceSail in November signed an agreement to
enter Brazil and announced it was in talks with over 30
countries. Two months later, it began work in Kazakhstan,
according to the Kazakh embassy in Beijing. 
    Separately, Brasília is in talks with Bezos's Project Kuiper
internet service and Canada's Telesat  TSAT.TO , according to a
Brazilian official involved in the negotiations, who spoke on
condition of anonymity to freely discuss ongoing talks. News of
those discussions is being reported for the first time. 
Starlink has since 2020 launched more satellites into low-Earth
orbit (LEO) - an altitude of less than 2,000 km - than all its
competitors combined. Satellites operating at such low altitudes
transmit data extremely efficiently, providing high-speed
internet for remote communities, seafaring vessels and
militaries at war. 
Musk's primacy in space is seen as a threat by Beijing, which is
both investing heavily in rivals and funding military research
into tools that track satellite constellations, according to
Chinese corporate filings and academic papers whose details have
not been previously reported. 
    China launched a record 263 LEO satellites last year,
according to data from astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell analyzed
by tech consultancy Analysys Mason. 
The emergence of competition to Starlink has been welcomed by
Brazil's government, which wants high-speed internet for
communities in far-flung areas but has previously faced off with
Musk over commerce and politics.
    SpaceSail declined to comment when presented with Reuters'
questions about its expansion plans. A newspaper controlled by
China's telecoms regulator last year praised it as "capable of
transcending national boundaries, penetrating sovereignty and
unconditionally covering the whole world ... a strategic
capability that our country must master." 
    Kuiper, Telesat, Starlink and Brazil's communications
ministry did not respond to requests for comment. 
    Few of Musk's international rivals have the same ambition as
SpaceSail, which is controlled by the Shanghai municipal
government. It has announced plans to deploy 648 LEO satellites
this year and as many as 15,000 by 2030; Starlink currently has
about 7,000 satellites, according to McDowell, and has set
itself a target of operating 42,000 by the end of the decade. 
    SpaceSail's launches will eventually comprise the Qianfan,
or "Thousand Sails," constellation that marks China's first
international push into satellite broadband. Three other Chinese
constellations are also in development, with Beijing planning to
launch 43,000 LEO satellites in the coming decades and investing
in rockets that can carry multiple satellites. 
    "The endgame is to occupy as many orbital slots as
possible," said Chaitanya Giri, a space technology expert at
India's Observer Research Foundation. 
    China's rush to occupy more of lower-Earth orbit has raised
concerns among Western policymakers, who worry that it could
extend the reach of Beijing's internet censorship regime.
Researchers at the American Foreign Policy Council think-tank
said in a February paper that Washington should increase
cooperation with Global South nations if it wanted to "seriously
contest China's growing foray into digital dominance." 
    The researchers also described Qianfan as a crucial part of
the space component of China's Belt and Road Initiative. The $1
trillion global infrastructure development plan is a signature
policy of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, but has been accused by
critics of being primarily a tool to expand Beijing's
geopolitical influence.
    China's commerce ministry and telecoms regulator did not
respond to requests for comment. China's foreign ministry said
in response to Reuters' questions that while it was not aware of
the specifics surrounding SpaceSail and Chinese LEO satellites
expanding overseas, Beijing pursues space cooperation with other
countries for the benefit of their peoples.
SpaceSail has said it aims to supply reliable internet to more
users, particularly those in remote areas and during recovery
from emergencies and natural disasters.
     
    WILD WEST
    Starlink's rapid expansion and its use in the war in Ukraine
has caught the attention of military researchers like those at
China's National University of Defense Technology, prompting
significant state funding for rival satellite networks. 
    Hongqing Technology, which was founded in 2017 and is
developing a 10,000-satellite constellation, this month raised
340 million yuan from mostly state-affiliated investors. 
    Last year, SpaceSail secured 6.7 billion yuan ($930 million)
in a financing round led by a state-owned investment fund
focused on upgrading China’s manufacturing capabilities.
    Chinese researchers, including many affiliated with the
People's Liberation Army, have also turned their attention to
the field. China published a record 2,449 patents related to LEO
satellite technology in 2023, up from 162 in 2019, according to
Anaqua’s AcclaimIP database. 
    Many focus on cost-efficient satellite networks and
low-latency communication systems, according to a Reuters
review, underscoring China's push to close the technology gap.
    "The space world is moving fast and busy experimenting,"
said Antoine Grenier, global head of space at the Analysys Mason
consultancy. "Pioneers are enjoying this relative freedom and
are shaping it to their advantage to claim key positions before
rules become more stringent – like the wild west." 
    Some of the Chinese research appears to be targeted at
Starlink, with one PLA-linked patent application describing the
U.S. system as critical to reconnaissance and military
communications while posing "threats to network, data, and
military security."
    Beijing is also developing tools to track and monitor
Starlink's constellation. Researchers from two PLA-affiliated
institutes said in a January study published in a Chinese
engineering journal that they had designed a system and
algorithm for tracking megaconstellations like Starlink's, which
was inspired by how humpback whales trap their prey by circling
them and creating spiralling bubbles. 
    "With the growing trend of space militarization, developing
tools to monitor and track these megaconstellations is
critically important," the researchers wrote. 
     

    <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Number of low Earth orbit satellites launched every year by
country/region    https://reut.rs/41rZHUs
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(Reporting by Nivedita Bhattacharjee in Bengaluru, Eduardo
Baptista in Beijing, Lisandra Paraguassu and Ricardo Brito in
Brasilia; Editing by Katerina Ang)
((mailto:Nivedita.Bhattacharjee@thomsonreuters.com; Mobile: +91
9920455129; X: @tweetsfromnivi;))