US natgas hits near 3-week high on output drop, hotter weather forecasts
12/08/2024 16:19
Aug 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 1% to a near three-week high on Monday, supported by a drop in
output in recent days and forecasts for hotter weather that should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air
conditioners humming.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.7 cents, or about 1.3%, to
$2.17 per million British thermal units, at 11:09 a.m. EDT. The session high was its highest since July 23.
"Drilling cutback announcements by major organizations, whether it be Chesapeake or EQT or whomever, everyone seems to be
pulling back on their end-of-year production outlooks, and that's definitely giving us support," said Gary Cunningham, director of
market research at Tradition Energy.
The market is also getting some boost from "weather shifts, which are showing some heat towards the end of August and into early
September" and some European buyers come back into the U.S. market for hedging purposes, Cunningham added.
Major U.S. natural gas producers were preparing to further curtail production in the second half, after prices sank nearly 40%
over the past two months.
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 102.8 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Meanwhile, LSEG estimated 228 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks. The normal for this time of year is 183 CDDs.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to rise to 105.9 bcfd this week from 104.0 bcfd last
week, and then expected to rise to 107.9 bcfd next week.
Dutch wholesale gas prices inched up on Monday morning amid concerns about gas supplies via Ukraine, while British prices rose
due to outages in the UK Continental Shelf. NG/EU
In other news, Woodside Energy WDS.AX which agreed last month to buy Tellurian TELL.A , the developer of a fully-permitted
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, for $1.2 billion including debt is unlikely to face a rival bid.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Aug 9 Aug 2 Aug 2 average
forecasts Actual Aug 2
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +19 +21 +25 +38
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,289 3,270 2,022 2,846
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 13.8% 14.9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average Average
2023 (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1 2.18 2.65 2.66 3.60
2.23
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 12.94 11.21 13.04 14.39
13.48
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 12.57 12.43 14.39 14.31
12.55
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 8 - 1 2 5
U.S. GFS CDDs 228 - 212 194 183
U.S. GFS TDDs- 236 - 213 196 188
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2019-2023)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.2 101.8 102.1 102.3 96.3
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.7 7.6 7.6 N/A 7.3
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 109.9 109.4 109.7 N/A 103.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada N/A 2.3
1.6 1.6 1.6
U.S. Exports to Mexico N/A 6.1
7.2 7.2 7.1
U.S. LNG Exports 12.6 7.7
12.7 12.8 12.8
U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.5
4.5 4.5 4.6
U.S. Residential 3.5 3.4
3.9 3.8 3.9
U.S. Power Plant 48.3 43.0
44.9 46.7 48.5
U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.7
21.8 21.8 21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.1
5.1 5.0 5.0
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2
2.2 2.2 2.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 84.8 80.0
82.5 84.3 86.4
Total U.S. Demand N/A 96.1
104.0 105.9 107.9
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021
% of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual
Apr-Sep 74 74 83 107 81
Jan-Jul 76 76 77 102 79
Oct-Sep 78 78 76 103 81
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
2023 2022 2021
Week ended Week ended
Aug 16 Aug 9
Wind 10 11 10
6 7
Solar 4 3 3
5 6
Hydro 6 6 7
5 6
Other 2 2 2
1 1
Petroleum 0 0 0
0 0
Natural Gas 41 38 37
47 45
Coal 17 21 23
18 17
Nuclear 19 19 20
17 19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
1.94 1.85
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.55 1.38
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
2.82 2.85
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.32 1.28
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
1.80 1.70
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.54 1.54
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
1.92 2.05
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-4.76 -1.44
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.78 0.81
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
31.50 35.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
31.25 38.00
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
27.00 33.25
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
32.00 54.50
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
34.25 38.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
33.75 38.25
(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio)
((sherinelizabeth.varghese@thomsonreuters.com;))
((For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
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NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))