US natgas retreats from three-week high on profit taking (updated)
13/08/2024 20:52
(Adds analyst quote and adds closing price)
Aug 13 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 1% on Tuesday as investors booked profits, but losses were limited by hotter weather
forecasts for next week that should boost demand for gas to generate electricity for air conditioning.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.1 cents, or 1.9% lower, to
settle at $2.15 per million British thermal units, the day after they rose to the highest in nearly three weeks.
"The market's coming back down and the key thing here is that the weather and the production cutbacks gave us a boost. But
now the weather forecast is uncertain and the results of this week's inventory, whether we're gonna see withdrawal or not, is still
up in the air. And so I think after the big run yesterday, people had a tendency to take profits," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at
Price Futures Group.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 233 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly higher from 228 CDDs estimated on
Monday. The normal for this time of year is 187 CDDs.
With hotter than usual weather on the horizon, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to
rise from 105.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 108.3 bcfd next week.
"The weather plays a big role in natural gas, short-term and long-term. And the weather has been a little on the warm side in
most parts of the country," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 102.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in
August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
"I think the market right now is wrestling with a high level of inventory, which is on the bearish side. But the injections
going into storage are on the low side, which is a little bit on the bullish side," Thomas Saal
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 21 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the
week ended Aug. 2. That was lower than the 26-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an injection of 25 bcf
during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 38 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL
Dutch and British gas prices fell on Tuesday morning, reversing the previous day's gains as gas flows from Russia to Europe via
Ukraine remained stable despite reports of possible damage to infrastructure. NG/EU
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Aug 9 Aug 2 Aug 2 average
forecasts Actual Aug 2
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +19 +21 +25 +38
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,289 3,270 2,022 2,846
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 13.8% 14.9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average Average
2023 (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1 2.65 2.66 3.60
2.23 2.23
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 11.21 13.04 14.39
12.91 13.48
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 12.43 14.39 14.31
12.63 12.55
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
7 8 1 2 3
U.S. GFS CDDs
233 228 213 193 187
U.S. GFS TDDs-
240 236 214 195 190
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2019-2023)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.3 96.3
103.1 101.8 102.1
U.S. Imports from Canada N/A 7.3
8.0 7.5 7.5
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.1
0.0 0.0 0.0
Total U.S. Supply N/A 103.7
111.0 109.3 109.6
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada N/A 2.3
1.6 1.6 1.6
U.S. Exports to Mexico N/A 6.1
7.1 7.1 7.1
U.S. LNG Exports 12.6 7.7
12.9 12.6 12.4
U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.5
4.4 4.5 4.5
U.S. Residential 3.5 3.4
3.7 3.8 3.9
U.S. Power Plant 48.3 43.0
50.8 47.0 49.3
U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.7
21.9 21.8 21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.1
5.1 5.0 5.0
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2
2.3 2.2 2.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 84.8 80.0
88.3 84.5 87.1
Total U.S. Demand N/A 96.1
110.0 105.7 108.3
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021
% of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual
Apr-Sep 74 74 83 107 81
Jan-Jul 76 76 77 102 79
Oct-Sep 78 76 103 81
77
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
2023 2022 2021
Week ended Week ended
Aug 16 Aug 9
Wind 10 11 10
7 6
Solar 4 3 3
6 5
Hydro 6 6 7
6 5
Other 2 2 2
1 1
Petroleum 0 0 0
0 0
Natural Gas 41 38 37
45 47
Coal 17 21 23
17 18
Nuclear 19 19 20
18 17
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.10 1.94
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.46 1.55
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
2.78 2.82
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.41 1.32
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
1.80 1.80
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.60 1.54
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.04 1.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-1.30 -4.76
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.74 0.78
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
30.75 31.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
36.00 31.25
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
26.50 27.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
30.25 32.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
29.50 34.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
30.50 33.75
(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio)
((sherinelizabeth.varghese@thomsonreuters.com;))
((For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
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