Jefferies flags near-term export risk an overhang for Australia's Treasury Wine

Treasury Wine Estates

29/07/2025 21:06

** Analysts at Jefferies warn of substantial inventory of Treasury Wine Estate's TWE.AX Penfolds wine in China; sees risk of exports slowing in near term

** Brokerage says second-quarter luxury wine exports to China from Australia fell due to cycling of restocking after tariff removal

** Says markets excluding China showed only modest growth for luxury wine as supply remains constrained

** Adds commentary from U.S. and U.K. remain negative; Wine Australia notes premiumisation trends are weakening, especially among younger drinkers

** Jefferies expects more re-allocation of Penfolds products to markets excluding China from late FY26 when availability improves

** Brokerage has "buy" rating on stock and A$10 PT

** Nine of 15 analysts rate the stock "buy" or higher and six "hold"; their median PT is A$10.00 - as per LSEG-compiled data

** Stock down 32.2% YTD

 (Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee in Bengaluru)

 ((Rishav.Chatterjee@thomsonreuters.com;))