Live Markets: US payrolls: the first meaningful acid test of 2025
10/01/2025 12:39
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U.S. PAYROLLS: THE FIRST MEANINGFUL ACID TEST OF 2025
The U.S. economy is expected to have added 160,000 workers to nonfarm payrolls in December,
a slowdown from November's 227,000 and a touch softer than the three-month average of 173,000.
On the policy front, this data will be an important input for the Fed, who look likely to
pause their easing cycle after three straight rate cuts in to round off 2024.
"For the time being the U.S. economy continues to exhibit solid growth momentum," writes
BlueBay CIO Mark Dowding.
"In that respect, we eagerly await the December jobs report later today as the first
meaningful acid test of 2025."
Estimates for today's figures range from a low of 120,000 (Citi) to a high of 200,000
(Berliner Spark, Scotiabank). That spread of estimates is the narrowest since January 2020.
Goldman Sachs, who are forecasting just 125,000 jobs, note alternative measures of
employment growth generally indicated a sequentially slower pace of job creation last month.
GS also says seasonal effects argue for a weaker-than-expected report.
"While the later-than-usual Thanksgiving is likely to boost retail hiring, this December’s
calendar configuration has historically resulted in meaningfully slower seasonally-adjusted
payroll growth on net," Goldman says.
"We expect deceleration in job growth in non-retail sectors, particularly professional
services and construction, to more than offset stronger retail hiring this month," they add,
expecting seasonal distortions to pose a 50,000 headwind to payroll growth.
(Samuel Indyk)
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