Live Markets: Two-fer Tuesday: Consumer confidence, Case-Shiller
27/08/2024 16:18
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S&P 500, Nasdaq turn slightly green; Dow ~unchanged
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Financials up most among S&P sectors; Cons disc biggest laggard
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STOXX 600 up ~0.2%
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Dollar, gold off; crude down >1.5%; bitcoin down >2%
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10-Year U.S. Treasury yield edges up to ~3.85%
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TWO-FER TUESDAY: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CASE-SHILLER
Two economic reports, one from this month and the other from the long-ago June era, suggested
the consumer outlook is growing brighter and their homes are still gaining value, if at a
slightly decelerated rate.
The mood of the American consumer has grown rosier this month.
The Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence index USCONC=ECI gained 1.4 points from an
upwardly revised July reading to land at 103.5, a more optimistic number than the 100.7
projected by economists.
Major stock indexes appeared to be reversing earlier losses in the wake of the report.
Behind the headline, survey respondents' assessment of their current condition increased by
1.0%, while near-term expectations improved by 1.7%.
This is good news for data geeks, who will recall that when the gap between these two
measures widens, it's often a harbinger of recession:
"Overall consumer confidence rose in August but remained within the narrow range that has
prevailed over the past two years," says Dana Peterson, CB's chief economist.
"Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August," Peterson adds. "Compared to July,
they were more positive about business conditions, both current and future, but also more
concerned about the labor market."
Indeed, recent softness in labor market data (particularly the weak July employment report)
appears to have had an effect on consumers' view of the jobs situation.
"Jobs hard to find" and "Jobs not so plentiful" metrics both gained ground, while the "Jobs
plentiful" measure dipped below one-third of the total responses:
Separately, U.S. home prices hit another all-time high in June. But the growth rate
continues to cool, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace.
Case-Shiller's 20-city composite USSHPQ=ECI held steady on a monthly basis at 0.4%, a hair
above the 0.3% expected.
Year-on-year, however, the composite shed 40 basis points to 6.5%, still hotter than the
even 6.0% consensus.
"(Case-Shiller) indices continue to show above-trend real price performance when accounting
for inflation," writes Brian Luke, S&P Dow Jones head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets.
"Home prices and inflation continue to factor into the political agenda coming into the election
season. While both housing and inflation have slowed, the gap between the two is larger than
historical norms."
While all 20 cities in the composite boasted annual increases, the top three slots belonged
to New York (9.0%), San Diego (8.7%) and Las Vegas (8.5%).
It should be noted that this data is a bit long in the tooth; since June, mortgage rates
have dipped back below the 7% level, helping to ease the supply drought that put upward pressure
on home prices.
(Stephen Culp)
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FOR TUESDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS
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LACKLUSTRE START IN STORE FOR EUROPE CLICK HERE
RATE CUT RELIEF DOUSED BY GEOPOLITICS CLICK HERE
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Consumer confidence present v future https://reut.rs/3T5h6Os
Consumer confidence jobs https://reut.rs/4dEXKrJ
Case Shiller and mortgage demand https://reut.rs/4gfGz1J
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