Vistra Q1 revenue slightly misses, hurt by weather impact

Vistra

07/05/2026 12:13

Overview

US power generator's Q1 revenue slightly missed analyst expectations

Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 rose and beat analyst expectations

Net income surged yr/yr, driven by unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivatives

Outlook

Vistra reaffirms 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 bln to $7.6 bln

Company maintains 2026 Adjusted FCFbG guidance at $3.925 bln to $4.725 bln

Vistra says strong load growth expected across primary markets in 2026

Result Drivers

DERIVATIVE GAINS - Net income increase was primarily driven by unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivative positions

HIGHER ENERGY AND CAPACITY PRICES - Adjusted EBITDA growth was mainly due to higher realized energy and capacity prices and contribution from Lotus acquisition

MILD WEATHER IMPACT - Retail segment results were unfavorably affected by mild weather in Texas

Company press release: ID:nPn3G0YxFa

Key Details

Metric
Beat/Miss
Actual
Consensus Estimate
Q1 Revenue
Slight Miss*
$5.64 bln
$5.65 bln (5 Analysts)
Q1 Net Income
$1.03 bln
Q1 Adjusted EBITDA
Beat
$1.49 bln
$1.45 bln (11 Analysts)

*Applies to a deviation of less than 1%; not applicable for per-share numbers.

Analyst Coverage

The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 18 "strong buy" or "buy", 1 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

The average consensus recommendation for the electric utilities peer group is "buy"

Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Vistra Corp is $223.50, about 41.2% above its May 6 closing price of $158.29

The stock recently traded at 16 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 18 three months ago

For questions concerning the data in this report, contact Estimates.Support@lseg.com. For any other questions or feedback, contact reuters.support@thomsonreuters.com.

(This story was created using Reuters automation and AI based on LSEG and company data. It was checked and edited by a Reuters journalist prior to publication.)