Vistra Q4 adjusted EBITDA beats analyst expectations

Vistra

26/02/2026 12:25

Overview

Power generation firm's Q4 adjusted EBITDA beat analyst expectations

Net income for Q4 decreased compared to last year

Company plans to acquire Cogentrix Energy, adding 5,500 MW capacity

Outlook

Vistra projects 2026 EBITDA between $6.8 bln and $7.6 bln

Company expects 2026 FCFbG between $3.925 bln and $4.725 bln

Vistra has hedged 100% of 2026 expected generation volumes

Result Drivers

POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS - Vistra secured industry-leading PPAs for nuclear power with AWS and Meta, supporting long-term growth

ACQUISITIONS - Successful acquisition of 2,600 MW from Lotus and plans to acquire Cogentrix Energy's 5,500 MW portfolio contributed to growth

HEDGING IMPACT - Unrealized losses from hedging transactions affected net income but are expected to benefit future periods

Company press release: ID:nPn1jmDVSa

Key Details

Metric
Beat/Miss
Actual
Consensus Estimate
Q4 Net Income
$233 mln
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA
Beat
$1.74 bln
$1.69 bln (10 Analysts)

Analyst Coverage

The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 19 "strong buy" or "buy", 1 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

The average consensus recommendation for the electric utilities peer group is "buy"

Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Vistra Corp is $229.50, about 30.9% above its February 25 closing price of $175.36

The stock recently traded at 20 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 23 three months ago

For questions concerning the data in this report, contact Estimates.Support@lseg.com. For any other questions or feedback, contact reuters.support@thomsonreuters.com.

(This story was created using Reuters automation and AI based on LSEG and company data. It was checked and edited by a Reuters journalist prior to publication.)