Newscasts - Breakingviews’ 25th birthday

Vivendi SE

13/11/2025 07:24

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Description: From the dot-com bust to the 2008 crisis to AI mania, our columnists have seen and shaped conversations about the biggest moments in finance. In this Viewsroom debate, they reflect on a quarter-century of agenda-setting insight.

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Video Transcript:

The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News.

With a technological evolution in the air, and febrile markets leaping and lurching on every new development, intrepid punditeers have set out a stall to offer agenda-setting financial insight to the capitalists in the fray. The year is 2000, and Breakingviews has launched to provide smart and fast commentary on the burgeoning Internet. Through the subsequent quarter century, amidst the dot-com bust, then the 2008 financial collapse, the Eurozone crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, through to today's new tech-driven fervor and potential bubble, we have continued to deliver on this mission.

Old enough to drive, old enough to drink, older indeed than many of the perennial subjects like Facebook-owner Meta, the iPhone, and even the social media network once known as Twitter, all of which radically changed the publishing landscape. Breakingviews' blueprint was simple: concise, sharp, timely views at a time when fast-moving markets were becoming as unpredictable as ever. And it was well-suited. In this week's Viewsroom, we take a look back at the 25 eventful years. It's Aimee.

And it's Jonathan, and this is the Viewsroom, the weekly podcast that dives into the knottiest topics in business, economics, and finance. And this is a very special episode. Breakingviews, as you have heard, has turned 25 years old. We're taking a look back over a quarter-century of views, of agenda-setting financial insight, as our mission statement reads. And Aimee, I think you and I both obviously, we're not here for the beginning, but you and I have been around in the general milieu of financial journalism for a long time. I joined Breakingviews just shortly after the pandemic broke. I think you've been around a little bit longer, right?

I have, I was around, I joined in 2017 and at the time, Breakingviews was very different than it is today. So, we were covering a lot of stories. Like basically we had a huge volume of stories we were doing almost daily. And we would have these like, you'd got a hat if you had three views that you put out in one day. I don't think anyone talks about those hats anymore. We're now much more focused on Big Views, the big features we now do. Well, we had always, but we had really added to our podcast arsenal with also Peter Thal Larsen's Big View. So, yes, it has changed a huge amount since I've been at Breakingviews in those short eight years, but we do have to-

I mean, I've got to admit, one of the things that surprises me though is all the stuff that hasn't changed around us, even as we've changed, right? It's like back in 2008, people were talking about all these deep mysteries of structured finance and how they eventually led to this kind of catastrophic outcome. And today, we're all talking about the mysteries of structured finance and how we're seeing like the earliest little bits of blowups and so on. It's like occasionally, you kind of can be driven a little bit mad by it, right?

Yes, that's true. That's true, some things don't change. And also, I should point out in London anyway, we moved from an office that had a bit of a mouse problem to, thankfully, a building that doesn't have a mouse problem. So that's been, that's what a big benefit. But thankfully, we are joined by our global chief, Peter Thal Larsen, and Jeff Goldfarb, both of whom have been around for a very long time. Peter, since the very beginning, who can now talk to us about, I guess, your memories and I guess to talk us through the annals of Breakingviews.

Hi, Aimee, and hi, Jonathan. I haven't actually been around since the beginning.

What about the very beginning?

I mean, the beginning was 2000. The very beginning was July 2000, when, as you say, we were in the middle of another tech bubble. And in fact, the tech bubble was already deflating by that point, I think. And before all these innovations had come along, like the iPhone and other things that sort of define our daily lives. I've been here since 2009, so a good chunk of that 25 years, but not all of it. And yes, I mean, look, it's a little bit self-indulgent, I think, to talk about the history like this. But I think one of the things that's useful about an anniversary like this is it gives you an opportunity to look back and see what's happened over that period, also reflect a bit on some of the incredible events that we've written about over that period. We went from the dot-com bust into 9/11, then into the credit boom, the financial crisis after that, the rise of China and emerging markets, the COVID pandemic, Russia invading Ukraine, et cetera. So, the first and second Trump presidencies. So, there's been really momentous events to get stuck into, and the world has changed a lot. But it's sort of interesting to look at how this group has sort of covered those events and written about those events and to look back and see kind of what we said at the time and, and kind of what we were right about and sometimes maybe not so right about.

Right. And I guess before we get, like, stuck into that part of it, like maybe Peter and Jeff, you can kind of walk us through some of the lore here, because when Breakingviews started, it was a very, very different world it was emerging into, right. We still had a lot of folks were getting to grips with what it even meant to be on the Internet. You had a lot of changes in terms of just the way banking and finance were working. We were coming out of kind of like this long post-Cold War, fairly, I guess, sanguine environment, and then boom, like running right into the dot-com bust. I mean, how do you think about, like, the way Breakingviews and its peers kind of were shaped by, or even helped to shape, the kind of, like conversation around what was happening at the time?

I think something you said earlier really attests to all of that, which is the idea that so much in the financial story sounds awfully familiar over the past 25 years. And the truth of the matter is that what Breakingviews does has stayed the same. It started in July 2000 as a way to speak truth to capitalist power in real time with enough analytical depth to make it enjoyable and insightful for investors and bankers and lawyers and captains of industry. And that's still what we do today. What has changed, obviously, as Aimee alluded to, is we have evolved with the media times. I mean, in a lot of ways, Breakingviews managed to set the agenda for the media industry. First of all, it survived. It launched into the deflation of the tech bubble, right? And the whole idea of Breakingviews was it was a dot-com play. It was the idea of taking financial commentary and putting it into real time through e-mail newsletters. Something that has become ubiquitous. Funny enough, our flashes, our little teases, were and are still 280 characters, the same character count as a tweet became. We provided smart brevity long before someone else used the catchphrase. And we have survived through all the ructions in the media industry, which were really kicking off at that time as well. So, I think it's a testament that we have evolved our business model and survived, as the financial industry has done the same, in a way. The financial crisis really was a turning point, I think, for Breakingviews. We were, we'd spent the previous eight years kind of building up know-how, contacts, writing insightful commentary. And when it all really hit the fan, people were turning to us for the insights. And we were at that time, as Aimee said, we were churning out a lot on a regular basis. I remember working pretty much every weekend through 2008. Because there was some other rescue happening. So, we've come a long way, and I think that our institutional knowledge serves us well to your point, Jonathan, about how things have look, rhyme, whatever, look the same. That's exactly the value, part of the value that we provide to people, is saying, hey, this is happening now. Sure, seems a lot like what happened you know, in 2000 or in 2007 or in 2016, whatever it may be.

And Peter, I remember when I joined Breakingviews, I came from the news side. So, I was a news journalist. And what I would do is I would ring everybody I possibly could. And then I would gather up all this information and I would throw it down on the page and be like, there you go. Here's all my news. And Peter very kindly used to say, this is good. And this is like stuff that we don't know, but it's not a view. And a view is like your opinion. And you don't actually need all this stuff because it doesn't actually support your view. And what you want is, and Peter, you could explain it much better than I can, but maybe you could just the idea of The View, like how that kind of came about and why it actually does seem to resonate so well with our readers. They really like the form that it comes in. And as Jeff said, that sort of brevity of it.

I think, look, to Jeff's point, this has been something that's been there from the beginning, has been this idea that there are people who work in finance, who sit in corporate boardrooms, who are making investment decisions, who are running policy, who are busy people. They have limited amounts of time, but they sort of need a way to think about kind of key events and, or debates or things that are going on. And kind of really that's what we try to provide. And key to that obviously is we're providing a point of view so because a lot of the, a lot of the financial media doesn't do that. A lot of financial media is reporting. This has happened, so and so said this, these two people are arguing about this thing. And, and what we're increasingly trying to do is sort of say, well this is our perspective on it. But that perspective is not, it's not like we're not sitting there dreaming that up by ourselves, right? That perspective is based on ideas and insights that we get by talking to our contacts. These are contacts who- these are people who we've been having a dialog in some cases; we've been having a dialog with for 25 years. And so, a lot of it is, it might start with a discussion amongst columnists and editors saying, well, this thing looks a bit like this or kind of it reminds you, well isn't this strange. But then we go out and sort of test out those ideas on contacts. And the idea is that when a column gets written or a view gets expressed, that it's sort of been stress tested in the market, and that if we're completely barking up the wrong tree that someone who's on the inside, someone who is informed has already said, no, you've got the wrong end of the stick on that. It's actually this way or something like that. And that's, yes, and I think that the sort of, the kind of informed commentary part of it, the reported commentary part of it, has been a thread that's guided, that sort of stayed constant all the way through.

It's also probably something that helps in the age of AI, that sort of personal contact. I think it will serve us well, hopefully, going forward as well.

Yes. I would just add as well, I remember when I was joining Breakingviews going out for lunch with a PR at the time and not knowing that I had applied for this job, he said, well, there's only really Breakingviews we need to put the CEO on the phone to. And I was like and that like, that, I hear that still, I still hear that when I go out to dinners and lunches with people where they say that they do want that's, that we are still very important in terms of shaping and answering to what their plans are, that we do kind of challenge them as well, which I think, yes, has not gone away.

I mean, so, Jeff, you've been looking back over the last 25 years of columns, right? Because you've kind of been digging through the oeuvre to find the gems and, let's say, the mistakes and the whiffs that we'd rather forget about over those years. I mean since we're talking about, kind of what is the Breakingviews does and how that has or has not changed, like, what do you notice reflected in those columns as you read through them? Like, is there, like, a strong through line of, you know, this is kind of like we're just locked in this eternal cycle of like turn and return kind of, like we were saying earlier, or like, do you notice like a change in the way, like both the industry and the way that people cover it has unfolded?

You know, it's interesting. I mean, I don't know why I volunteered for the task of reading through 60,000 columns to pick 25 of them, but somehow I did, for a book that we're publishing as part of this anniversary. But it was really instructive and entertaining to go back and see some of these things. I mean, on the whole, things sort of look pretty steady in the sense that from the get-go, we were thinking about, one of the first columns that was published by our co-founder Hugo Dixon was about the empire building at Vivendi and Jean-Marie Messier. And two years later, he was thrown out and the whole thing was a shambles. So, we, and we're still doing that today, right? We're still writing about things like WeWork and Sam Altman, who knows where that goes. But we're still kind of tackling those big topics and, greed remains, ambition remains, the hallmarks of human behavior are still there, and they resonate through the 25 years of what we've been doing. What's also great to see though over the arc of what we did is the breadth of things that we wrote about, whether it was sport or art or natural disasters, all these things that you don't necessarily think of in the financial or economic sphere, but they all have some touch point into economic or financial thought. And we've embarked on writing about them and it's really fun to see. The other thing is it feels like there's a steady through line in terms of, we're always looking at things from the investor standpoint or often, not always. So, there are, we have stuck with topics like corporate governance, shareholder value. You know, things like that that have remained even as we kind of look at different industries, different people. Ultimately that's what we're trying to do is cut through cut through the jargon, cut through excessive optimism sometimes. We all like optimism sometimes, but it gets overblown obviously out of the corporate and financial halls of power. And so those are some of the fun things that I think have carried through.

And on that, Jeff, I mean, people, we're always encouraged, obviously, to really make our pieces about people, because that's ultimately who's running companies and making big decisions. Were you kind of surprised by how some of the characters that were there in the very early days of Breakingviews in terms of maybe some questions that would have been, say, Rob Cox in 2004 offered the first, one of the first takedowns of Donald Trump as a business supremo. But there are obviously a lot of people we write about today have been around for a very long time. Is that something that you kind of noticed in your vast breadth of reading?

Yes, I mean, for sure. I mean whether it's Carl Icahn or Masayoshi Son, or any number of bankers. Jamie Dimon was, when we started, was a rising banker who five years later put together what started as the JP Morgan behemoth and its latest spate of growth. All these people are still kicking around, influencing the world. And then, of course.

So is Donald Trump.

Yes. So is Donald Trump, yes, exactly. And we carry on with those folks but also pick up on the new characters in all forms of, obviously, mostly tech these days. Jensen Huang was around back then but like, obviously, has become far more influential and powerful. Mark Zuckerberg showed up. Elon Musk had already made his first fortune but has become something of a bigger presence in our lives. And it's actually great to think back to having been on the early days of those things. I remember Rob Cox always laughed about the fact that he had met with Dick Fuld, I think shortly before everything went badly. And he carries his business card around now as like a memento of the time.

This is Dick Fuld, the former CEO of, chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers, for some of our newer listeners.

For our younger listeners, who don't remember.

Sorry to age myself there, and all of us.

I mean, you talk about the crisis, and you talk about these people, right? But there have been some meaningful changes in the last few years. Like I think you see a certain nexus of power that is trying to, let's say, pull that center of like financial gravity away from New York or away from London or away from, et cetera. We've seen obviously really substantial changes of late and really over the past like decade in terms of like the global trade settlement which is now breaking apart. And I wonder, Peter, whether you feel like that reflects on what Breakingviews or any financial news service or commentary service is trying to do because when you're talking to people, there's a certain set of assumptions undergirding every conversation, right? And part of that is like, the person that I'm talking to has their hand on the rudder of whatever it is that is going on. And those grips have slackened, right?

Absolutely. I mean I regularly talk to CEOs who are frustrated because they've climbed their way to the top of the corporate ladder, and they think they've got their hands on the levers of power. And now they realize that there's a bureaucrat, some faceless bureaucrat in a government department somewhere who's issuing an order saying, you can no longer sell this product in China or kind of we're going to interfere with the supply chain. So, it's a very different world. I think that's one of the things that we definitely reflect over that period is the post-2000, up to 2007 to 2008. That was the high point of financial globalization. And really everything that's happened since has been somewhat a reversal or a renegotiation of all of that, in terms of the influence of governments, the role of governments in regulating finance, in supporting the economy, as we saw during Covid, the influence of central banks in terms of taking extraordinary measures to keep things going, the trade tensions that we've seen. And so, one of the things that's happened, I think, is that definitely the types of columns that we write, the way we approach subjects has changed because there is really no such thing anymore as a straightforward M&A deal. You know, it used to be that you would come in and the company A would buy company B and the kind of, you talk to the advisors on both sides and you'd have a bit of a back and forth about whether the price was fair or whether some was overpaying or selling too cheaply. And then that was kind of it. And now antitrust regulators get involved, national security considerations are there. Broader negotiations are going on about kind of how that fits into geopolitics. And so, all of these stories become more intricate and more complicated, also more interesting, but definitely more difficult. And I think the other thing that has changed, coming back to Breakingviews, if you indulge me for a moment, is we have become more global, right? I mean, so in 2000, we started in London, we then expanded to New York, but it was only really after Breakingviews became part of Reuters in 2009 that we were able to sort of build out a sort of a global footprint with a significant presence in Asia that allowed us to cover the world. And actually when I think about how the stories that we debate and that we cover now, whether it's chips for AI or whether it's electric vehicles or whether some of these trade tensions or cross-border financial flows, it's really hard to imagine how we could offer a perspective on that without having the people we do placed around the world who are looking at this from all the different perspectives.

Now, this is not the last question, but it will be a tricky one. But given that we started this conversation by saying how many similarities there are to the beginnings of Breakingviews, the next 25 years? So, we obviously have AI, which we have no idea where that's going. But let's see, Peter, in 25 years, if you're right, and Jeff, too. So, what would you imagine for Breakingviews over the next 25 years? Peter, we'll start with you.

Well, Jeff mentioned AI, and obviously there's a lot of discussion, as there is everywhere, about AI and what it's going to do to the way that information and commentary like ours is assembled and transmitted. I mean, I think, I'm with Jeff, I'm in the glass half full camp on this one, because I think it's quite clarifying in some ways. Because when you put a query into a model and actually its ability to collate and assemble information that's available online is extraordinary, superhuman, way more than a human could do. But obviously what it can't do is pick up the phone or get on a call and talk to people and extract information that is not in the public domain or insights or ideas or how things how to think about things. And I think that is still really valuable. It also can't really do proper financial analysis, so it can calculate ratios and stuff, but that ability of sort of knowing which tool to use when and kind of how to give people a way to think about something from a financial perspective, again, I think is, I don't think we're quite there yet with AI. So, I hope that the value of that will become clear in all of this, or remain clear in this, and people will value it. And ultimately, the human beings who are consuming what we do will also see the importance of that, as they get inundated with all the other AI-generated stuff that is out there. As to what we're going to look like, I cannot possibly tell you. I mean, it's quite possible that in 25 years' time, this will be a conversation between some avatars, who have kind of downloaded the contents of our brains and are kind of freelancing, talking about things, while we stay in bed or kind of have a cup of tea or I don't know, do something else with our lives. It's impossible to say. But I do think that I do feel confident that sort of with a group of people, sort of bright, interested people who are who are always thinking about how to do things differently and better, that we will hopefully figure it out.

I think most of the focus is on, when it comes to AI in particular, is about how we will do what we do. How will it change? And I think, to Peter's point, it just means we have to double down on what makes us unique and sets us apart, which we have constantly done over more than two decades. There's less talk about sort of how people will consume not just Breakingviews but media in general, and that continues to evolve, and I would say one of the things that makes me confident about where Breakingviews will go is A, we have a really strong backer and owner that has more than a century of standing in the news world. And that we have proven along the way that we can adapt. I mean, this very podcast sort of speaks to it, right? We didn't have podcasts when we were, I mean, when we started. So, we've adapted to new types of media and how people want to receive the insights that help them do their jobs better and know more about the world. So, I think we will have to stay very attuned to that. And, but again, history tells me that, that we're ready for the challenge.

And I would, just to add one thing on that, because the other thing obviously is, who knows where this global sort of fracturing will end up and how far it will go. To what extent is the US separating from the rest of the world? To what extend is the world dividing into different blocs? Very hard to predict. But I will say that I think in order to make sense of all of that, having a kind of sort of joined up global perspective will actually be in some ways more important, right. Having the ability to, having someone in Hong Kong or someone in Mumbai, as we do, columnists there who can sort of, can say, actually, well, I'm talking to people here, this is how they're looking at it, in some ways becomes more important as you sort of lose those connections. So yes, the world is complicated and messy and who knows where that's going to end up, but I think being able to look at it from different parts will remain very important.

One final thought on that also is that not only do we have people on the ground in a lot of those places, and nothing, at least not now, can replace the things that you get from just being on the ground and getting in a taxi and stepping into various buildings and places around different parts of the world, is that we have a bunch of people that have lived not just in one of those places, but in many of those places. And I think that that, combined with the people we have on the ground, helps keep connecting the dots, right? Not just through history, but also through geographies, which is a huge part of finance and economics. It's pattern recognition, right, and pattern breaks. And so, I think like having intellectually curious and well-traveled people, there's a big part of what makes Breakingviews different and strong.

Well, to our readers and listeners, thank you very much for supporting Breakingviews for the past 25 years, and we look forward to another at least 25. So, thank you, Peter and Jeff.

And the navel gazing stops here. Next week, we'll be back in.

Yes. Gazing at other people's navels.

Gazing at other people's navels.

Exactly.

Exactly.

Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Sheryl Peña in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can listen to a new episode of the Viewsroom every Thursday on the Reuters app or your favorite platform. And don't forget to tune in to our sister podcast, The Big View, every Tuesday, as well as the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. If you like what you heard, please follow the Viewsroom and let us know what you thought. We have a new email address where you can send us feedback, which is breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. And check out our views of the biggest stories in business and finance every day on Breakingviews.com and Reuters.com.