REG - Yellow Cake PLC - QUARTERLY OPERATING UPDATE

Yellow CakeAnnouncement

27/04/2022 07:16

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RNS Number : 4484J  Yellow Cake PLC  27 April 2022

27 April 2022

 

 

Yellow Cake plc ("Yellow Cake" or the "Company")

QUARTERLY OPERATING UPDATE

Yellow Cake, a specialist company operating in the uranium sector holding
physical uranium for the long term, is pleased to report its performance for
the quarter ended 31 March 2022 (the "Quarter").

Highlights

·     Estimated net asset value as at 31 March 2022 of £4.42 per
share(1) or US$1,069.0 million, comprising 15.83 million lb of U(3)O(8)
valued at a spot price of US$57.90/lb(2) and cash and other current assets
and liabilities of US$152.3 million.

·     Increase in value of U(3)O(8) held by Yellow Cake by 38% over the
Quarter from US$665.0 million(3) as at 31 December 2021 to
US$916.7 million(4) as at 31 March 2022.

·   Yellow Cake has entered into the following agreements for the purchase
of uranium which, when completed, will increase the Company's holdings to
18.81 million lb of U(3)O(8). These purchases will be funded with cash at bank
earmarked for this purpose.

o Pursuant to Kazatomprom's offer of 26 October 2021, the Company has
concluded an agreement with Kazatomprom to purchase 0.95 million lb of
U(3)O(8) at a price of US$47.58/lb, for delivery to the Company at the Cameco
storage facility in Canada by June 2022.

o  The Company has exercised its Buyback Option with Kazatomprom in terms of
which it will acquire 2,022,846 lb of U(3)O(8) from Kazatomprom at a price of
US$43.25/lb, for delivery to the Company at the Cameco storage facility in
Canada between April 2022 and May 2022.

·      Yellow Cake's estimated proforma net asset value on 26 April 2022
was £4.40 per share or US$1,016.3 million, assuming 18.81 million lb of
U(3)O(8)(5) valued at a spot price of US$53.00/lb(6) and cash and other
current assets and liabilities(7).

·      On 4 April 2022, Yellow Cake announced the initiation of a share
buyback programme to purchase up to US$3 million of the Company's Ordinary
Shares over 30 calendar days commencing on 4 April 2022 (the "Programme").
Given that the Company's shares traded at a material discount to its
underlying net asset value since mid-January this year, the Yellow Cake Board
resolved to implement the Programme as a means of effectively acquiring
exposure to uranium at a discount to the commodity spot price. Shares may be
purchased should the closing mid-market share price of the Company in any
given day represent a discount of 10% or more to the Company's proforma net
asset value at that time. Since the launch of the Programme, the Company has
acquired 248,414 shares at a volume weighted average discount to the Company's
proforma net asset value of 11%.

·      Yellow Cake's operations, financial condition and ability to take
delivery of U(3)O(8) from Kazatomprom, or any other party, remain unaffected
by the geopolitical events in Ukraine. All U(3)O(8) to which the Company has
title and has paid for, is held at the Cameco storage facility in Canada and
the Orano storage facility in France. While part of Kazatomprom's production
is transported through Russia, the Company is unaware of any restrictions on
Kazatomprom's activities related to the supply of its products to end
customers and we do not anticipate any material delays to scheduled
deliveries. The Company does not anticipate any restrictions on being able to
make further purchases under its option agreement with Kazatomprom (the
"Framework Agreement") should it wish to do so.

 

Andre Liebenberg, CEO of Yellow Cake, said:

"The outlook for uranium continued to improve in the quarter and with it, our
confidence in the case for investing in the commodity. That confidence is
based on the very clear supply demand characteristics that look set to support
the long-term fundamentals for uranium, further endorsed by the considerable
global momentum behind nuclear energy as an ever more important source of
clean energy generation. On the supply side, we continue to forecast a
prolonged deficit as production remains constrained, exacerbated by the
likelihood of Western-aligned markets cutting reliance on Russian enrichment.
On the demand side, we note recent analysis by the International Energy Agency
and others that reinforces the expectation that world nuclear generation
capacity will increase significantly by 2050, facilitated by new reactors
coming online. This was illustrated most recently by the UK Government's
"British Energy Security Strategy" which set out an ambitious nuclear power
programme including the development of 24 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050.
Yellow Cake is ideally placed to benefit from these market dynamics."

 

Uranium Market Developments and Outlook

Global Uranium Market

Spot market volumes increased noticeably in January, reaching 6.4 million lb,
compared to only 2.7 million lb for the month of December, but still short of
the November quantity of 7.5 million lb. A primary factor in the volume
increase was spot market buying in response to social unrest in the Republic
of Kazakhstan, the world's largest uranium producer. At that time, Kazatomprom
quickly reassured their global uranium customers that uranium production and
transport operations remained unaffected, although the nationwide rail service
was impacted for a short period. The spot U(3)O(8) price also reflected supply
concerns having initially slightly declined to US$42.00/lb on 4 January from
the December month-end price of US$42.10/lb, but then increasing to
US$45.25/lb on 5 January, a one-day increase of almost 8 percent. Having
reached a month high of US$45.80/lb (11-12 January), the price ended the month
at US$43.00/lb.(8)

Spot market volumes fell slightly in February, settling at 6.2 million lb. The
spot uranium price which had remained fairly stable through the first three
weeks of the month (US$42.50/lb-US$43.00/lb) rose sharply beginning 24
February in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine finishing the month at
US$48.50/lb.(9)

Spot market volume rose substantially during the month of March reaching 10.4
million lb. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ("SPUT") acquired a total of 5.4
million lb during March, representing just over half of the aggregate monthly
volume. The spot uranium price gained US$9.70/lb during the month reaching
US$58.20/lb at the end of March, a gain of 20 percent. The spot uranium price
experienced a single-day increase of US$6.50/lb (12.2%) on 10 March (from
US$53.25/lb to 59.75/lb) in response to purchases by SPUT totalling 1.2
million lb on that date.(10)

UxC released its annual spot market review on 24 January(11) summarising 2021
market activity. Total spot volume aggregated 101.8 million lb compared to
94.5 million lb in 2020. Uranium producers bought a total of 13.0 million lb
(12.8% of total spot volume), a significant reduction from the 2020 level of
29.8 million lb, while utilities purchased 17.5 million lb (17.2%), also a
decrease from the previous year's total of 18.6 million lb.
Intermediaries/others (including financial entities) comprised the largest
buying group acquiring 71.3 million lb (70% of total spot volume).  During
2021, utilities sold only 1.7 million lb (1.7%) into the spot market while
uranium producers transacted 29.3 million lb (28.8%), more than double the
2020 volume of 12.6 million lb.  Intermediaries/others sold a total of 70.8
million lb, representing 69.5% of the market aggregate.

Longer term uranium price indicators also rose significantly over the first
quarter 2022. The Ux LT U(3)O(8) Price (Long-Term) finished 2021 at
US$40.50/lb but rose to US$48.00/lb by the end of March 2022, an increase of
18.5%. The Ux U(3)O(8) 3-Year Forward Price was reported at US$43.75/lb at the
end of 2021 but by the end of the first quarter of 2022 had risen to
US$56.00/lb, a gain of US$12.25 lb (28%). Finally, the Ux U(3)O(8) 5-Year
Forward Price showed the greatest absolute dollar increase over the
three-month period, having escalated from an end-of-year level of US$44.75/lb
to US$58.00/lb at the end of March, an increase of US$13.25/lb (29.6%),
reflecting increasing long-term uranium supply uncertainty.

Nuclear Generation / Uranium Demand

On 11 February 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released a Notice of
Intent (NOI) and Request for Information (RFI) in support of the
implementation of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law's US$6 billion Civil
Nuclear Credit Program. The nuclear credit program is designed to support the
continued operation of commercial nuclear reactors which may be under economic
threat and in danger of premature closure.  The announcement stated that
"Nuclear power currently provides 52% of the nation's 100% clean electricity,
and the Biden-Harris Administration has identified the current fleet of 93
reactors as a vital resource to achieve net-zero emissions economy-wide by
2050."(12)

The United Kingdom released an updated "British Energy Security Strategy"
which sets out a national plan for the development of "secure, clean and
affordable British energy for the long term." The sweeping energy policy
includes an ambitious nuclear power programme which envisions the development
of 24 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050, supplying up to 25% of projected UK
electricity demand.  The programme establishes "Great British Nuclear" which
will coordinate the nationwide commercial nuclear programme in concert with
private industry. Moreover, the UK government plans to "collaborate with other
countries to accelerate work on advanced nuclear technologies, including both
Small Modular Reactors and Advanced Modular Reactors (AMRs)."(13)

In mid-December 2021, the Netherlands announced the formation of its new
government accompanied by a revised climate change commitment to at least 55%
CO(2) reduction by 2030. The Dutch government also aims to reduce CO(2)
emissions by 70% by 2035 and 80% by 2040. A notable component of that climate
change agenda is the construction of two new nuclear reactors budgeted at EUR5
billion.(14)

Brazil has executed an agreement to initiate a siting study for a planned
nuclear power plant to be operational by 2050. The country currently operates
the two-unit Angra nuclear power plant with a third unit expected to be built
on the existing site.(15)

South Korea's newly elected President, Yoon Suk-yeol, rejected the previous
government's nuclear phase-out policy and pledged to increase investment in
the industry and support further exports of South Korean-designed nuclear
reactors.(16)

South Africa's National Infrastructure Plan 2050 released 11 March 2022 sets
out the country's plans for future electricity generation (currently, the
South African utility, Eskom, operates two nuclear reactors, Koeberg 1 and 2
with a total generating capacity of 1.9 Gwe). The Plan states that "the role
of nuclear energy in achieving net-zero emission goals cannot be over
emphasized" and that "South Africa should embrace the global recognition of
nuclear as a clean energy source." Furthermore, the Plan recommends that South
Africa "consider both repurposing and retrofitting baseload coal fleet with
advanced and innovative baseload nuclear energy systems that can be deployed
inland which provide an opportunity for the reskilling and retention of the
existing coal workforce."(17)

On 22 March 2022, China's National Development and Reform Commission issued
the 14(th) Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) which underscored the expanding role of
the country's commercial nuclear power programme. The national energy plan
calls for installed nuclear capacity aggregating about 70 Gwe by
2025.(18) The World Nuclear Association reports that current Chinese operable
nuclear reactors total 53 units with a capacity of 50.8 Gwe, with an
additional 19 reactors under construction totalling 20.9 Gwe.(19)

Uranium Supply

Kazatomprom recently reported operational and trading/commercial activities
including CY2021 results.(20) December quarter production volume totalled
15.2 million lb, a substantial increase from 4Q 2020 when aggregate output
reached 11.4 million lb.  Annual production improved by more than 12%
year-on-year totalling 56.7 million lb, as compared to 50.6 million lb for
2020 when uranium operations were curtailed in response to the COVID-19
pandemic. Production guidance for 2022 stands at 54.6-57.2 million lb which
could be impacted by pandemic-related supply chain challenges. Kazatomprom
stated "pandemic-related supply chain challenges have continued to result in
limited access to certain key operating materials and equipment (production
reagents, certain types of pipes and pumps, specialized equipment, drilling
rigs) which had a material impact on the Company's wellfield development and
production schedules in 2021, adding additional risk to production in 2022 and
resulting in a wider range for the expected production volume."

Cameco Corporation held its most recent investor update call on 9 February
2022 which included both 4Q 2021 results but also annual results for CY2021.
Cameco announced that about 185 million lb U(3)O(8) had been added to its
long-term uranium contract portfolio since 2016, including 70 million lb of
U(3)O(8) since the beginning of 2021, thus allowing for the restart of the
McArthur River/Key Lake production complex.  Stating that "our plan in no way
represents an end to our supply discipline", Cameco's production plan now
envisions total output (McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake) reaching 28.5
million lb U(3)O(8) (100% basis) in 2024. Annual production at McArthur River
is anticipated to be 15 million lb U(3)O(8) in 2024 (40% below the annual
license capacity), while operations at the Cigar Lake Mine would be
incrementally reduced from the current 18.0 million lb U(3)O(8)/year to 13.5
million lb U(3)O(8)/year (25% below licensed capacity). Cameco stated that
"this will remain our production plan until we see further improvements in the
uranium market and have further progress in securing the appropriate homes for
our unencumbered, in-ground inventory under long-term contracts."(21)

The Russian News Agency, TASS, reported that the Russian Natural Resources
Ministry released a report on the state and use of mineral resources in Russia
in 2020 which stated, "it is possible that a shortage of uranium raw materials
suitable for development in the current economic conditions may emerge in
Russia by 2030-2035, which is due to the depletion of reserves of developed
uranium deposits".(22)

Market Outlook

The Russian invasion of Ukraine initiated sweeping economic sanctions on the
Russian Federation by the European Union and the United States. While other
energy-related imports (oil, natural gas, coal) were subjected to import bans
by the Biden Administration, thus far, Russian-sourced nuclear fuel shipments
remain unaffected. The on-going conflict highlighted Russia's very significant
share of the conversion and enrichment markets and is resulting in major
market impacts across the global nuclear fuel cycle as nuclear utilities
continue to reassess nuclear fuel procurement commitments and plans.

 

 

Net Asset Value

Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 31 March 2022 was £4.42 per
share or US$1,069.0 million, consisting of 15.83 million lb of U(3)O(8),
valued at a spot price of US$57.90/ lb(23) and cash and other current assets
and liabilities of US$152.3 million.(24)

     Yellow Cake Estimated Net Asset Value as at 31 March 2022
                                                                                      Units
     Investment in Uranium
     Uranium oxide in concentrates ("U(3)O(8)")                      (A)              lb               15,832,755
     U(3)O(8) fair value per pound ((24))                            (B)              US$/lb           57.90
     U(3)O(8) fair value                                             (A) x (B) = (C)  US$ m            916.7

     Cash and other net current assets/(liabilities) (()(25)())      (D)              US$ m            152.3
     Net asset value in US$ m                                        (C) + (D) = (E)  US$ m            1,069.0

     Exchange Rate ((25))                                            (F)              USD/GBP          1.3162
     Net asset value in £ m                                          (E) / (F) = (G)  £ m              812.2
     Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury ((26))   (H)                               183,671,232

     Net asset value per share                                       (G) / (H)        £/share          4.42

 

 

 

Yellow Cake's estimated proforma net asset value on 26 April 2022 was £4.40
per share or US$1,016.3 million, assuming 18.81 million lb of
U(3)O(8)(27) valued at a spot price of US$53.00/lb(28) and cash and other
current assets and liabilities of US$152.3 million as at 31 March 2022, less
a cash consideration of US$87.5 million to be paid to Kazatomprom on delivery
of 2.02 million lb of U(3)O(8) by May 2022, less a further cash consideration
of US$45.2 million to be paid to Kazatomprom on delivery of 0.95 million lb of
U(3)O(8) by June 2022.

     Yellow Cake Estimated Proforma Net Asset Value as at 26 April 2022
                                                                                      Units
     Investment in Uranium
     Uranium oxide in concentrates ("U(3)O(8)")( (28)())           (A)                lb                 18,805,601
     U(3)O(8) fair value per pound ((29))                          (B)                US$/lb             53.00
     U(3)O(8) fair value                                           (A) x (B) = (C)    US$ m              996.7

     Cash and other net current assets/(liabilities) ((29))        (D)                US$ m              19.6
     Net asset value in US$ m                                      (C) + (D) = (E)    US$ m              1,016.3

     Exchange Rate                                                 (F)                USD/GBP            1.2588
     Net asset value in £ m                                        (E) / (F) = (G)    £ m                807.4
     Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury((30))  (H)                                   183,422,818

     Net asset value per share                                     (G) / (H)          £/share            4.40

 

 

 

ENQUIRIES:

 Yellow Cake plc
 Andre Liebenberg, CEO            Carole Whittall, CFO
 Tel: +44 (0) 153 488 5200

 Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker: Canaccord Genuity Limited
 Henry Fitzgerald-O'Connor        James Asensio
 Gordon Hamilton

 Tel: +44 (0) 207 523 8000

 Joint Broker: Berenberg
 Matthew Armitt                   Jennifer Lee
 Detlir Elezi
 Tel: +44 (0) 203 207 7800

 Financial Adviser: Bacchus Capital Advisers
 Peter Bacchus                    Richard Allan
 Tel: +44 (0) 203 848 1640

 Investor Relations: Powerscourt
 Peter Ogden                      Molly Melville
 Tel: +44 (0) 7793 858 211

 

 

ABOUT YELLOW CAKE

Yellow Cake is a London-quoted company, headquartered in Jersey, which offers
exposure to the uranium spot price. This is achieved through its strategy of
buying and holding physical triuranium octoxide ("U(3)O(8)"). It may also seek
to add value through the acquisition of uranium royalties and streams or other
uranium related activities. Yellow Cake seeks to generate returns for
shareholders through the appreciation of the value of its holding of U(3)O(8)
and its other uranium related activities in a rising uranium price
environment. The business is differentiated from its peers by its ten-year
Framework Agreement for the supply of U(3)O(8) with Kazatomprom, the world's
largest uranium producer. Yellow Cake currently holds 15.83 million pounds of
U(3)O(8), all of which is held in storage in Canada and France.

 

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS

Certain statements contained herein are forward looking statements and are
based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the potential
returns of the Company and the industry and markets in which the Company will
operate, the Directors' beliefs and assumptions made by the Directors. Words
such as "expects", "anticipates", "should", "intends", "plans", "believes",
"seeks", "estimates", "projects", "pipeline", "aims", "may", "targets",
"would", "could" and variations of such words and similar expressions are
intended to identify such forward looking statements and expectations. These
statements are not guarantees of future performance or the ability to identify
and consummate investments and involve certain risks, uncertainties and
assumptions that are difficult to predict, qualify or quantify. Therefore,
actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed in
such forward looking statements or expectations. Among the factors that could
cause actual results to differ materially are: uranium price volatility,
difficulty in sourcing opportunities to buy or sell U(3)O(8), foreign exchange
rates, changes in political and economic conditions, competition from other
energy sources, nuclear accident, loss of key personnel or termination of the
services agreement with 308 Services Limited, changes in the legal or
regulatory environment, insolvency of counterparties to the Company's material
contracts or breach of such material contracts by such counterparties. These
forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this announcement. The
Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any
updates or revisions to any forward looking statements contained herein to
reflect any change in the Company's expectations with regard thereto or any
change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements are
based unless required to do so by applicable law or the AIM Rules.

 

 

 1  (#_ftnref1)       Estimated net asset value per share as at 31 March
2022 is calculated assuming 187,740,730 ordinary shares in issue less
4,069,498 shares held in treasury, the Bank of England's daily USD/ GBP
exchange rate of 1.3162 and the daily spot price published by UxC, LLC as at
31 March 2022

 2  (#_ftnref2)       Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 31 March
2022

 3  (#_ftnref3)       Based on the daily spot price of US$42.00/ lb
published by UxC, LLC on 31 December 2021 and 15,832,755 lb U₃O₈ held by
the company as at 31 December 2021

 4  (#_ftnref4)       Based on the daily spot price of US$57.90/ lb
published by UxC, LLC on 31 March 2022 and 15,832,755 lb U₃O₈ held by the
company as at 31 March 2022

 5  (#_ftnref5)      Comprises 15.83 million lb of U(3)O(8) held on 31
December 2021, plus 2.02 million lb of U(3)O(8) to be bought back from
Kazatomprom in terms of the Repurchase and Buyback Option Agreement with
Kazatomprom for delivery by May 2022, plus 0.95 million lb of U(3)O(8) to be
purchased from Kazatomprom for delivery by June 2022

 6  (#_ftnref6)        Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 26
April 2022

 7  (#_ftnref7)      Estimated net asset value per share as at 26 April
2022 is calculated assuming 187,740,730 ordinary shares in issue less
4,317,912 shares held in treasury, a USD/ GBP exchange rate of 1.2588 and the
daily spot price published by UxC, LLC as at 26 April 2022. For purposes of
estimating proforma net asset value, cash and other current assets and
liabilities is calculated as US$152.3 million as at 31 March 2022, less a
cash consideration of US$87.5 million to be paid to Kazatomprom on delivery of
2.02 million lb of U(3)O(8) by May 2022, less a cash consideration of
US$45.2 million to be paid to Kazatomprom on delivery of 0.95 million lb of
U(3)O(8) by June 2022

 8  (#_ftnref8)        Ux Weekly; "The Market"; 31 January 2022

 9  (#_ftnref9)        Ux Weekly; "The Market"; 28 February 2022

 10  (#_ftnref10)     Ux Weekly; "The Market"; 28 March 2022

 11  (#_ftnref11)   Ux Weekly; "2021 Uranium Spot Market Review"; 24 January
2022

 12  (#_ftnref12)     U.S. Department of Energy; "DOE Establishes $6
Billion Program to Preserve America's Clean Nuclear Energy Infrastructure"; 11
February 2022

 13  (#_ftnref13)     Prime Minister's Office / Department for Business,
energy & Industrial Strategy; "British Energy Security Strategy"; Updated
7 April 2022

 14  (#_ftnref14)     Energy Monitor; "The Netherlands opens the door to
new nuclear with EUR5bn"; 27 January 2022

 15  (#_ftnref15)     World Nuclear News; "Brazil looks to nuclear
expansion"; 17 January 2022

 16  (#_ftnref16)   Reuters; "South Korea's Nuclear Power at Inflection Point
as Advocate Wins Presidency"; 11 March 2022

 17  (#_ftnref17)   South Africa's National Infrastructure Plan 2050; dated
February 2022, released 11 March 2022

 18  (#_ftnref18)   Global Times; "China to Expand Deployment of Nuclear
Power in Clean, Secure energy Push"; 22 March 2022

 19  (#_ftnref19)   World Nuclear Association; "World Nuclear Power Reactors
& Uranium Requirements"; March 2022

 20  (#_ftnref20)   NAC Kazatomrpom; "Kazatomprom 4Q21 Operations and Trading
Update; 27 January 2022"

 21  (#_ftnref21)   Cameco Corporation; "2021 Fourth Quarter Results
Conference Call"; 9 February 2022

 22  (#_ftnref22)   TASS; "Russia may face uranium raw materials shortage by
2030-2035, ministry says"; 22 December 2022

 23  (#_ftnref23)         Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on
31 March 2022

 24  (#_ftnref24)         Cash and cash equivalents and other net
current assets and liabilities as at 31 March 2022

 25  (#_ftnref25)         Bank of England's daily USD/ GBP exchange
rate as at 31 March 2022

 26  (#_ftnref26)         Net asset value per share on 31 March 2022 is
calculated assuming 187,740,730 ordinary shares in issue less 4,069,498 shares
held in treasury

 27  (#_ftnref27)         Comprises 15.8 million lb of U(3)O(8) held on
31 March 2022, plus 2.02 million lb of U(3)O(8) to be bought back from
Kazatomprom in terms of the Repurchase and Buyback Option Agreement with
Kazatomprom for delivery by May 2022, plus 0.95 million lb of U(3)O(8) to be
purchased from Kazatomprom for delivery by June 2022

 28  (#_ftnref28)         Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 26
April 2022

 29  (#_ftnref29)         Includes cash and other current assets and
liabilities of US$152.3 million as at 31 March 2022, less a cash consideration
of US$87.5 million to be paid to Kazatomprom on delivery of 2.02 million lb of
U(3)O(8) by May 2022, less a cash consideration of US$45.2 million to be paid
to Kazatomprom on delivery of 0.95 million lb of U(3)O(8) by June 2022

 30  (#_ftnref30)         Net asset value per share on 26 April 2022 is
calculated assuming 187,740,730 ordinary shares in issue less 4,317,912 shares
held in treasury on 26 April 2022

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