REG - Yellow Cake PLC - Quarterly Operating Update

Yellow CakeAnnouncement

21/10/2024 07:00

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RNS Number : 8566I  Yellow Cake PLC  21 October 2024

21 October 2024

 

Yellow Cake plc ("Yellow Cake" or the "Company")

QUARTERLY OPERATING UPDATE

Yellow Cake, a specialist company operating in the uranium sector, holding
physical uranium ("U(3)O(8)") for the long term and engaged in uranium-related
commercial activities, is pleased to report its performance for the quarter
ended 30 September 2024 (the "Quarter").

Highlights

Market Highlights

·    Over the Quarter, the spot price decreased by 4.4% from
US$85.50/lb(( 1 )) on 28 June 2024 to US$81.75/lb(( 2 )) on
30 September 2024. After the Quarter-end, the uranium spot price steadily
increased to US$83.25/lb. 3 

·      Global uranium spot market activity appears to be rising as
financial entities, trading companies, nuclear utilities, and possibly uranium
production companies enter the near-term market to secure material as prices
stabilise. As uranium production in Kazakhstan continues to face a spectrum of
challenges including sulfuric acid availability, upward cost pressure, and
transportation-related hurdles, Kazatomprom has signalled that further
downgrading of production guidance for 2025 may occur, which could impact spot
market purchasing activity during the fourth quarter.

·      Utility term contracting remains subdued, especially in the
United States, as utilities pursue waivers under the recently enacted Russian
nuclear fuel ban legislation while the term uranium price continues to
strengthen. Increasing commitments for deliveries in the long-term (post
2026/2027) may be expected, especially as utilities assess the potential
market impacts of the hyperscale data centre developers.

Company Highlights

·    The value of Yellow Cake's uranium holdings decreased by 4.4% over
the Quarter from US$1,853.8 million as at 30 June 2024 to
US$1,772.5 million as at 30 September 2024, as a result of the
corresponding decrease in the uranium spot price.

·       Estimated net asset value per share decreased by 10.1% over the
Quarter from £6.86 per share 4  as at 30 June 2024 to £6.17 per share 5  as
at 30 September 2024. This is primarily as a result of the effect of the 4.4%
decrease in the uranium price over the Quarter on the Group's total uranium
holding, combined with sterling appreciation.

·       Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 18 October 2024 was
£6.46 per share or US$1,828.5 million, based on a spot price of US$83.25/lb
and cash and other current assets and liabilities 6 .

·      All U(3)O(8) to which Yellow Cake has title and has paid for is
held at the Cameco storage facility in Canada and the Orano storage facility
in France.

 

Andre Liebenberg, CEO of Yellow Cake, said:

"Though the uranium spot price remains subdued from its January highs, we
remain very optimistic about the medium term sector fundamentals. Demand for
uranium is growing driven by improving awareness of the need for nuclear power
as part of the future energy mix, while nuclear is also seen as critical to
supporting the artificial intelligence boom and the development of hyperscale
data centers. Microsoft, for example, recently signed an agreement with
Constellation Energy to purchase energy from the Three Mile Island Unit 1
nuclear plant in Pennsylvania. Amazon announced three new agreements to
support the development of nuclear energy projects, including the construction
of several new Small Modular Reactors. We are also seeing a fundamental global
shortage of uranium while in the US governmental actions including the total
ban on Russian nuclear fuel imports, subject to potential waivers through
2027, and Chinese uranium products being added to the increased import tariff
list potentially impacting availability. These factors have exacerbated the
already tight global uranium supply shortage, with primary mine supply of 140
million pounds some way behind fast-growing global annual demand of over 180
million pounds to fuel the world's nuclear reactors. We believe this presents
an excellent opportunity for investors to increase their exposure to the
commodity."

 

Uranium Market Developments and Outlook

Uranium Market Developments

Global Uranium Market

During the Quarter, the spot market for uranium exhibited moderate volatility.
The spot price, which was US$85.50/lb at the end of June, decreased to
US$82.00/lb by the end of July and further declined to US$79.00/lb by the end
of August. The spot price recovered slightly to US$81.75/lb by the end of
September, remaining below the 2023 year-end level of US$91.00/lb. The
transactional volume for the Quarter was 12.0 million pounds, slightly below
the previous quarter volume of 12.3 million pounds, bringing the aggregate
spot market volume for the nine months to September 2024 to 34.2 million
pounds. 7 

Two of the three longer-term uranium price indicators showed limited
volatility during the Quarter. The three-year forward price started the
Quarter at US$94/lb, declined to US$91/lb by the end of August, and then
recovered to US$94/lb by the end of September. Similarly, the five-year
forward price, which was US$101/lb at the end of June, decreased to US$98/lb
in August and then strengthened back to US$101/lb by the end of the Quarter.
The long-term price continued to increase, beginning the Quarter at US$79/lb
and ending September at US$81/lb. This term price indicator has risen by
almost 20% since the end of 2023 when it was reported at US$68/lb. 8 

Nuclear Generation / Uranium Demand

China's State Council approved the construction of 11 nuclear reactors across
five sites located in Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Guangxi. The
estimated total investment in the 11 reactors amounts to 220 billion yuan
(US$31 billion), with construction times expected to be five years. China
General Nuclear Power Corporation received approvals for six reactors, China
National Nuclear for three reactors, and State Power Investment Corporation
for the remaining two units. The State Council has approved a total of 31
reactors over the period 2022-2024 and is expected to approve ten reactors per
year over the next three to five years. 9 

The Russian Federation published a draft planning document outlining the
country's nuclear power expansion plan to 2042. Designed to support the
government's plan for nuclear power to provide 25% of the country's
electricity by 2045, Rosatom's General Director, Alexei Likhachev, stated that
the new general scheme provides for the construction of 28 GW of new nuclear
generating capacity by 2042, consisting of 37 new reactors, including
replacement reactors at several current sites and 11 new nuclear power
plants. 10 

Italy has initiated an evaluation of reintroducing nuclear power. Previously,
the country operated four commercial reactors, but a national referendum
following the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident resulted in a total nuclear
phase-out, with the last two operating reactors, Caorso and Trino Vercellese,
closing in 1990. Italy's National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan,
submitted to the European Commission in early July, sets out potential nuclear
power goals ranging from 11% of generating capacity up to as much as 20-22%
(16 GWe) of total capacity by 2050. 11 

Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry reports that nuclear power
has been included in the country's 2033 National Electricity General Plan. The
Ministry's Director General of New Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation
stated in a panel discussion that nuclear power can be implemented in 2033. A
proposed new government bureau, the Nuclear Energy Program Implementation
Organization, would oversee the development of nuclear power in Indonesia. 12 

Eastern European countries plan to develop at least twelve nuclear reactors
with a total budget of about €130 billion. The principal objectives of these
programmes are to achieve carbon neutrality and reduce dependence on Russian
gas imports. 13 

The government of South Africa intends to progress its proposed expansion of
commercial nuclear power. The country's Minister of Energy and Electricity
plans to pursue approvals for funding to construct 2,500 MW of nuclear
capacity, likely to be located at the proposed Thyspunt site in the Eastern
Cape's Nelson Mandela Bay hub. 14  (#_ftn14) Separately, government approval
has been granted for a 20-year operating life extension for Unit 1 of South
Africa's two-reactor nuclear power plant, Koeberg. The South African utility,
ESKOM, applied for the extension of the initial 40-year license in 2021. 15 

Constellation Energy will restart the 835 MWe Three Mile Island Unit 1 reactor
after a five-year shutdown. The company has reached a 20-year power off-take
agreement to supply electricity to Microsoft in support of the company's
planned hyperscale data centre development. Operating as the Crane Clean
Energy Center, the reactor is expected to re-enter commercial service in 2028
after refurbishment. Constellation plans to apply for an operating license
that would allow the plant to operate until at least 2054. 16 

Oracle announced plans to develop a hyperscale data centre incorporating three
Small Modular Reactors ("SMRs"). While the location and schedule for the data
centre were not disclosed, the data centre would be "north of a gigawatt" and
already has building permits for the associated SMRs. 17 

After the Quarter-end, Amazon announced that they had signed three new
agreements to support the development of nuclear energy projects, including
the construction of several new SMRs, with companies across Washington,
Virginia and Pennsylvania. 18 

South Korea's Nuclear Safety and Security Commission has issued construction
licenses for Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power for the development of Units 3
and 4 of the Shin Hanul Nuclear Power Plant. The APR1400 reactors had
previously been scheduled to enter commercial operation by 2022 and 2023, but
construction was halted under the previous President's nuclear phase-out
policy. The two units are now scheduled for operations commencing in 2032 and
2033. 19 

A group of the world's largest banks announced their support for expanding
commercial nuclear power. During New York Climate Week, the group, which
includes 14 major banks such as Barclays, Bank of America, Citi, Morgan
Stanley, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, Segra Capital Management, and Société
Générale, stated that they would endeavour to provide capital resources to
the industry in response to the COP29 declaration to triple global nuclear
power by 2050 to meet net zero carbon goals. 20 

The US Department of Energy released the results of a recent analysis
concluding that 60 to 95 GWe of new nuclear generating capacity could be sited
at existing and recently retired nuclear power plant sites. The report
evaluated all 54 operating and 11 recently retired nuclear power plant sites
in 31 states. Early indications suggest that 41 operating and retired nuclear
power plant sites have sufficient room to host one or more large light-water
reactors totalling 60 GW of new capacity, increasing to 95 GW if sites
included SMRs. 21 

The International Atomic Energy Agency ("IAEA") released the 44th edition of
its annual forecast of installed nuclear generating capacity, examining two
scenarios: a low case and a high case. At the end of 2023, there were 413
nuclear power reactors in operation totalling 371.5 GWe, with 59 reactors
(61.1 GWe) under construction. During 2023, five new nuclear reactors (5 GWe)
were connected to the grid, while five reactors (6 GWe) were retired. The high
case scenario envisions current global commercial nuclear power capacity of
372 GWe increasing by 2.5 times, reaching 950 GWe by 2050. IAEA Director
General Rafael Mariano Grossi stated that the new IAEA projections reflect
increasing acknowledgment of nuclear power as a clean and secure energy
supply, as well as increasing interest in SMRs to meet climate goals and
foster sustainable development. 22 

Uranium / Nuclear Fuel Supply

Cameco reported second-quarter 2024 results showing increased production,
rising from 8.8 million pounds during the first six months of 2023 to 12.9
million pounds year-on-year as McArthur River continued to ramp-up. The
company reported that while forecast total uranium deliveries in 2024 remained
at 32-34 million pounds, additional term contract commitments during the
quarter now show an annual average of about 29 million pounds during the
2024-2028 period, up from the 28 million pounds per year reported as of the
end of the March quarter. 23 

Kazatomprom, the world's largest uranium producer, announced that the Mineral
Extraction Tax ("MET") rate applicable to uranium production had been modified
by the national government. The tax base for MET on uranium is determined by
the weighted average price for uranium from public price reporting sources for
the corresponding reporting period, multiplied by the amount of uranium mined
and a MET rate of 6%. Under the modified tax regime, the 2025 MET rate will
increase to 9% for that year. However, commencing in 2026, uranium production
will be taxed on a sliding scale, taking into account the annual production
volume at a specific production facility, with rates up to 18% for facilities
producing up to and including 10.4 million pounds, and an additional tax
applied, based on the weighted average U(3)O(8) price, of up to 2.5% if the
price exceeds US$ 110/lb. 24 

Kazatomprom released its second-quarter 2024 operations and trading update,
reporting total uranium production of 28.32 million pounds for the first six
months of 2024, a 5% increase compared to the first six months of 2023. The
company secured sufficient sulfuric acid to meet aggregate production at the
minus 20% level relative to Subsoil Use Agreements. Production guidance for
2024 was adjusted upwards from 54.6-57.2 million pounds to 58.5-61.1 million
pounds. Kazatomprom stated that the production increase would be used to
replenish uranium inventories. 25  Production costs rose significantly during
the first half of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023 due to the increase
in the Mineral Extraction Tax coupled with the cost of sulfuric acid. All-in
sustaining cash cost (attributable C1 + capital cost) rose by 45%
year-over-year, reporting at US$ 28.06/lb for the first six months of
2024. 26 

Kazatomprom announced that 2025 production would fall well short of previous
guidance as sulfuric acid availability and construction schedules lagged.
Meirzhan Yussupov, CEO, stated that amid continued success in long-term
contracting activity, Kazatomprom had initially intended to ramp up its 2025
production to 100% of Subsoil Use Agreement levels. However, uncertainty
around sulfuric acid supplies for 2025 needs and delays in construction works
at newly developed deposits resulted in a need to re-evaluate 2025 plans.
Total Kazakh uranium production for 2025 has been reset at 65.0-68.9 million
pounds compared to the previous guidance of 79.3-81.9 million pounds.(26)

Market Outlook

Global uranium spot market activity appears to be rising as financial
entities, trading companies, nuclear utilities, and possibly uranium
production companies enter the near-term market to secure material as prices
firm. Total transactional volume for 2024 may reach or slightly exceed 50
million pounds, which would generally reflect the 2023 level. As uranium
production in Kazakhstan continues to face a spectrum of challenges including
sulfuric acid availability, upward cost pressure, and transportation-related
hurdles, Kazatomprom has signalled that further downgrading of production
guidance for 2025 may occur, which could impact spot market purchasing
activity during the fourth quarter. Utility term contracting remains subdued,
especially in the United States, as utilities pursue waivers under the
recently enacted Russian nuclear fuel ban legislation while the term uranium
price continues to strengthen. Increasing commitments for deliveries in the
long-term (post 2026/2027) may be expected, especially as utilities assess the
potential market impacts of the hyperscale data centre developers.

 

Net Asset Value

Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 30 September 2024 was £6.17 per
share or US$1,796.0 million, consisting of 21.68 million lb of U(3)O(8)
valued at a spot price of US$81.75/lb 27  and cash and other current assets
and liabilities of US$23.5 million 28 .

   Yellow Cake Estimated Net Asset Value as at 30 September 2024
                                                                                 Units
   Investment in Uranium
   Uranium oxide in concentrates ("U(3)O(8)")                  (A)               lb                21,682,318
   U(3)O(8) fair value per pound(27)                           (B)               US$/lb            81.75
   U(3)O(8) fair value                                         (A) x (B) = (C)   US$ m             1,772.5

   Cash and other net current assets/(liabilities)(28)         (D)               US$ m             23.5
   Net asset value in US$ m                                    (C) + (D) = (E)   US$ m             1,796.0

   Exchange Rate 29                                            (F)               USD/GBP           1.3413
   Net asset value in £ m                                      (E) / (F) = (G)   £ m               1,339.0
   Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury 30   (H)                                 216,856,447

   Net asset value per share                                   (G) / (H)         £/share           6.17

 

Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 18 October 2024 was £6.46 per
share or US$1,828.5 million, based on 21.68 million lb of U(3)O(8) valued at
a spot price of US$83.25/lb 31  and cash and other current assets and
liabilities of US$23.5 million as at 30 September 2024.

   Yellow Cake Estimated Net Asset Value as at 18 October 2024
                                                                                Units
   Investment in Uranium
   Uranium oxide in concentrates ("U(3)O(8)")                  (A)              lb               21,682,318
   U(3)O(8) fair value per pound(31)                           (B)              US$/lb           83.25
   U(3)O(8) fair value                                         (A) x (B) = (C)  US$ m            1,805.1

   Cash and other net current assets/(liabilities) 32          (D)              US$ m            23.5
   Net asset value in US$ m                                    (C) + (D) = (E)  US$ m            1,828.5

   Exchange Rate                                               (F)              USD/GBP          1.3052
   Net asset value in £ m                                      (E) / (F) = (G)  £ m              1,401.0
   Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury 33   (H)                               216,856,447

   Net asset value per share                                   (G) / (H)        £/share          6.46

 

 

ENQUIRIES:

 Yellow Cake plc
 Andre Liebenberg, CEO                    Carole Whittall, CFO
 Tel: +44 (0) 153 488 5200

 Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker: Canaccord Genuity Limited
 James Asensio                            Henry Fitzgerald-O'Connor
 Charlie Hammond
 Tel: +44 (0) 207 523 8000
 Joint Broker: Berenberg
 Matthew Armitt                           Jennifer Lee
 Detlir Elezi
 Tel: +44 (0) 203 207 7800

 Financial Adviser: Bacchus Capital Advisers
 Peter Bacchus                            Richard Allan
 Tel: +44 (0) 203 848 1640
 Communications Adviser: Sodali & Co
 Peter Ogden
 Tel: +44 (0) 7793 858 211

 

ABOUT YELLOW CAKE

Yellow Cake is a London-quoted company, headquartered in Jersey, which offers
exposure to the uranium spot price. This is achieved through its strategy of
buying and holding physical triuranium octoxide ("U(3)O(8)") and adding value
through other uranium-related activities. Yellow Cake seeks to generate
returns for shareholders through the appreciation of the value of its holding
of U(3)O(8) and its other uranium-related activities in a rising uranium price
environment. The business is differentiated from its peers by its ten-year
Framework Agreement for the supply of U(3)O(8) with Kazatomprom, the world's
largest uranium producer. Yellow Cake currently holds 21.68 million pounds of
U(3)O(8), all of which is held in storage in Canada and France.

 

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS

Certain statements contained herein are forward looking statements and are
based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the potential
returns of the Company and the industry and markets in which the Company will
operate, the Directors' beliefs and assumptions made by the Directors. Words
such as "expects", "anticipates", "should", "intends", "plans", "believes",
"seeks", "estimates", "projects", "pipeline", "aims", "may", "targets",
"would", "could" and variations of such words and similar expressions are
intended to identify such forward looking statements and expectations. These
statements are not guarantees of future performance or the ability to identify
and consummate investments and involve certain risks, uncertainties and
assumptions that are difficult to predict, qualify or quantify. Therefore,
actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed in
such forward looking statements or expectations. Among the factors that could
cause actual results to differ materially are: uranium price volatility,
difficulty in sourcing opportunities to buy or sell U(3)O(8), foreign exchange
rates, changes in political and economic conditions, competition from other
energy sources, nuclear accident, loss of key personnel or termination of the
services agreement with 308 Services Limited, changes in the legal or
regulatory environment, insolvency of counterparties to the Company's material
contracts or breach of such material contracts by such counterparties. These
forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this announcement. The
Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any
updates or revisions to any forward looking statements contained herein to
reflect any change in the Company's expectations with regard thereto or any
change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements are
based unless required to do so by applicable law or the AIM Rules.

 

 1         Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 28 June 2024.

 2         Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 30 September
2024.

 3          Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 18 October 2024.

 4         Estimated net asset value as at 30 June 2024 of
US$1,880.7 million comprises 21.68 million lb of U(3)O(8) valued at the
daily spot price of US$85.50/lb published by UxC, LLC on 28 June 2024 and cash
and other current assets and liabilities of US$26.9 million. Estimated net
asset value per share as at 30 June 2024 is calculated assuming 221,440,730
ordinary shares in issue less 4,584,283 shares held in treasury on that date
and the Bank of England's daily USD/GBP exchange rate of 1.2642 on 28 June
2024.

 5        Estimated net asset value as at 30 September 2024 of
US$1,796.0 million comprises 21.68 million lb of U(3)O(8) valued at the
daily spot price of US$81.75/lb published by UxC, LLC on 30 September 2024
and cash and other current assets and liabilities of US$23.5 million.
Estimated net asset value per share as at 30 September 2024 is calculated
assuming 221,440,730 ordinary shares in issue less 4,584,283 shares held in
treasury on that date and the Bank of England's daily USD/GBP exchange rate of
1.3413 on 30 September 2024.

 6        Estimated net asset value as at 18 October 2024 of
US$1,828.5 million comprises 21.68 million lb of U(3)O(8) valued at the
daily spot price of US$83.25/lb published by UxC, LLC on 18 October 2024 and
cash and other current assets and liabilities of US$23.5 million as at
30 September 2024. Estimated net asset value per share as at 18 October 2024
is calculated assuming 221,440,730 ordinary shares in issue less 4,584,283
shares held in treasury on that date and a USD/GBP exchange rate of 1.3052.

 7            Ux Weekly, "Ux Price Indicators," 30 September 2024.

 8            Ux Weekly, "Ux Price Indicators," 30 September 2024.

 9            Bloomberg News, "China Makes $31 Billion Nuclear Push
With Record Approvals," 19 August 2024.

 10        Nuclear Engineering International, "Russia unveils nuclear
expansion plan," 26 August 2024.

 11        World Nuclear News, "Italy could get 22% of electricity from
nuclear by 2050," 2 July 2024.

 12        Indonesian National News Agency, "Nuclear power included in
National Electricity Plan: ESDM Ministry," 11 July 2024.

 13        AzerNews, "Countries of Eastern Europe intend to build at
least 12 nuclear power units," 15 July 2024.

 14        Reuters, "South African Energy Chief Seeks Nod for Nuclear
Plant," 7 July 2024.

 15        Reuters, "South African nuclear power plant wins approval for
20-year life extension," 15 July 2024.

 16        Constellation Energy Press Release, "Constellation to Launch
Crane Clean Energy Center, Restoring Jobs and Carbon-Free Power to the Grid,"
20 September 2024.

 17         Datacenterdynamics.com, "Oracle to build nuclear SMR-powered
gigawatt data center," 11 September 2024.

 18         Amazon Press Release; "Amazon signs agreements for
innovative nuclear energy projects to address growing energy demands", 16
October 2024.

 19        World Nuclear News, "Construction permit granted for new
Korean APR1400 units," 12 September 2024.

 20        World Nuclear News, "International banks express support for
nuclear expansion," 23 September 2024.

 21         U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy, "Could
the Nation's Nuclear Power Plant Sites Support New Reactor Builds?" 9
September 2024.

 22         International Atomic Energy Agency Press Release, "IAEA
Outlook for Nuclear Power Increases for Fourth Straight Year, Adding to Global
Momentum for Nuclear Expansion," 16 September 2024.

 23        Cameco Press Release, "Cameco reports Q2 results: 2024 outlook
on track; strong operational performance; financial results reflect transition
to tier-one economics; durable demand outlook driving long-term price
increases; disciplined strategy capturing long-term value," 31 July 2024.

 24         Kazatomprom Press Release, "Kazatomprom informs on Changes
to Mineral Extraction Tax Rate," 10 July 2024.

 25        Kazatomprom Press Release, "Kazatomprom 2Q24 Operations and
Trading Update," 1 August 2024.

 26        Kazatomprom Press Release, "Kazatomprom 1H24 Financial Results
and 2025 Production Plan Update," 23 August 2024.

 27         Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on
30 September 2024.

 28         Cash and cash equivalents and other net current assets and
liabilities as at 30 September 2024.

 29         Bank of England's daily USD/GBP exchange rate as at 30
September 2024.

 30         Estimated net asset value per share on 30 September 2024 is
calculated assuming 221,440,730 ordinary shares in issue less 4,584,283 shares
held in treasury on that date.

 31         Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 18 October 2024.

 32         Cash and other current assets and liabilities as at 30
September 2024.

 33         Estimated net asset value per share on 18 October 2024 is
calculated assuming 221,440,730 ordinary shares in issue, less 4,584,283
shares held in treasury on that date.

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