REG - Yellow Cake PLC - Quarterly Operating Update

Yellow CakeAnnouncement

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RNS Number : 0857T  Yellow Cake PLC  30 July 2025

30 July 2025

 

Yellow Cake plc ("Yellow Cake" or the "Company" or "Group")

QUARTERLY OPERATING UPDATE

Yellow Cake, a specialist Group operating in the uranium sector, holding
physical uranium ("U(3)O(8)") for the long term and engaged in uranium-related
commercial activities, is pleased to report its performance for the quarter
ended 30 June 2025 (the "Quarter").

Highlights

Market Highlights

·       Over the Quarter, the spot price increased by 21.8% from
US$64.45/lb(( 1 )) on 31 March 2025 to US$78.50/lb(( 2 )) on 30 June 2025,
receding to US$70.85/lb on 29 July 2025. 3 

·       The global spot uranium market strengthened through the
Quarter, with increased volatility reflected in a price rise of approximately
10% in mid-June following capital raising activity by the Sprott Physical
Uranium Trust. Geopolitical developments, including new US tariffs, have
contributed to market uncertainty that may persist into the current quarter.
Spot market volumes for the Quarter were broadly in line with 2024 levels at
27.6 million lbs.

·       The term market remained relatively quiet, with utilities
monitoring the evolving policy environment and progress on nuclear development
initiatives. The reported term price held near US$80/lb, a level generally
sufficient to support restarted production. While long-term pricing remains
steady, US utilities have begun issuing Requests for Proposals for deliveries
extending into the 2030s.

 

Company Highlights

·       The value of Yellow Cake's uranium holdings increased by 21.8%
over the Quarter from US$1,397.4 million as at 31 March 2025 to
US$1,702.1 million as at 30 June 2025, as a result of the corresponding
increase in the uranium spot price.

·       Estimated net asset value per share increased by 14.3% over the
Quarter from £5.05 per share 4  as at 31 March 2025 to £5.77 per share 5 
as at 30 June 2025. This was primarily due to the effect of the 21.8%
increase in the uranium price over the Quarter on the Group's total uranium
holding, partly offset by Sterling appreciation against the US dollar over the
Quarter.

·       Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 29 July 2025 was
£5.35 per share or US$1,549.7 million, based on a spot price of US$70.85/lb
and cash and other current assets and liabilities. 6 

·       All U(3)O(8) to which Yellow Cake has title and has paid for is
held at the Cameco storage facility in Canada and the Orano storage facility
in France.

 

Andre Liebenberg, CEO of Yellow Cake, said:

"The UK government's approval of Sizewell C is a pivotal moment for the
nuclear renaissance, underscoring the growing acceptance of nuclear power as a
cornerstone for achieving net zero ambitions worldwide. This milestone
amplifies the already robust demand for uranium, driven by new reactor
projects and the energy demands of AI and hyperscale data centres. However,
primary uranium supply remains critically constrained, with global production
of around 157 million pounds lagging far behind annual demand exceeding 180
million pounds. We believe that with growing reliance on nuclear to meet
climate goals and provide energy security, this supply-demand imbalance is set
to intensify and exert strong upward pressure on the uranium price in the
medium to long term. Yellow Cake is well-positioned to capitalise on this
fundamental market shift."

 

 

Uranium Market Developments and Outlook

 

Global Uranium Market Developments

The global uranium spot market demonstrated notable strength during the
Quarter. The Ux U₃O₈ daily price rose from US$64.45/lb at the end of March
to US$67.35/lb at the end of April, climbed to US$71.10/lb by the end of May,
and surged to US$78.75/lb in June-an increase of US$14.30/lb (+22%) over the
Quarter. This sharp rise was partly driven by the Sprott Physical Uranium
Trust, which raised US$200 million in equity and re-entered the spot market on
20 June, purchasing 1.36 million lb of U₃O₈ during the month.

Longer-term pricing indicators also strengthened during the Quarter. The
3-year forward price rose from US$79.00/lb to US$89.50/lb (+13%) and the
5-year forward price rose from US$87.00/lb to US$97.00/lb (+11%). The
Long-Term Price remained steady at US$80.00/lb. 7  Spot market transactional
volume totalled 27.6 million lb. 8 

On 23 May 2025, US President Donald Trump issued a series of Executive Orders
aimed at advancing nuclear energy. Key objectives include increasing US
nuclear generation capacity from 100 GW to 400 GW by 2050, supporting 5 GW of
uprates in the current fleet, streamlining regulatory processes at the US
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, signing 20 new "123 Agreements" with
international partners, and initiating construction of 10 new reactors by
2030. 9 

In a landmark policy shift, the World Bank lifted its longstanding ban on
nuclear energy financing, citing projected global electricity demand that is
expected to double by 2035. To meet this demand, the Bank estimates annual
investment in energy generation, transmission, and storage must rise from
US$280 billion to US$630 billion. 10 

The Euratom Supply Agency's draft 2024 annual report noted that EU utilities
purchased 36.4 million lb of natural uranium, with 85% of deliveries coming
from Canada (34%), Kazakhstan (24%), Australia (11%), and Russia (16%).
Notably, 92% of EU uranium was sourced under multi-year contracts, with the
remainder procured on the spot market. As of year-end 2024, inventories stood
at 103.7 million lb--up 6% year-over-year-equivalent to more than three years
of reload requirements (averaging 30.5 million lb/year). Assuming
minimum/maximum contractual coverage rates, EU utilities indicated the
following ranges of uranium forward coverage:  2026 (74-96%), 2027 (75-91%),
2028 (65-81%), 2029 (73-94%), 2030 ( 65-83%), 2031 (70-88%), 2032 (64-78%) and
2033 (36-45%). 11 

 

Nuclear Generation / Uranium Demand

On 27 April 2025, China's State Council approved the construction of a total
of ten nuclear reactors at five sites. These included eight
indigenous-designed Hualong One units (HPR1000). China General Nuclear ("CGN")
received approval for Phase II (units 3 and 4) of its Taishan Nuclear Power
Plant ("NPP") (Guangdong province) as well as Phase III (units 5 and 6) at its
Fangchenggang NPP (Guangxi Autonomous Region) while China National Nuclear
Corporation ("CNNC") received approval for Phase III (units 5 and 6) at its
Sanmen NPP (Zhejiang province) and two units at the Xiapu NPP (Fujian
province).  In addition, the State Power Investment Corporation will build
two CAP1000 reactors (units 5 and 6) at the Haiyang NPP (Shandong
province). 12 

India continues to progress its commercial nuclear power programme aiming to
reach 100 GWe by 2047. The Consultative Committee of India's Ministry of Power
convened in late April to consider the nuclear expansion plan which envisions
growing the country's nuclear capability from the current 25 operable reactors
with a total installed capacity of 8.9 GW providing about 3% of India's
electricity.  A further eight reactors (6.6 GW) are under construction while
ten reactors (7.0 GW) are in pre-development. India must meet its ambitious
nuclear development plans in order to reach the goal of net zero carbon
emissions by 2070. 13 

Vietnam revised its national power plan to increase installed electricity
generating capacity from the current 80 GW to 183-236 GW by 2030 for an
estimated investment of US$136 billion. The expansion plan calls for nuclear
power to play an increasing role from 2030-2035 with up to 6.4 GW installed by
2035 and a further 8 GW planned by 2050. 14 

Taiwan continues to assess the option of restarting nuclear reactors which
have been shut down in response to an earlier policy to exit nuclear power
following the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan. Taiwan's Environment
Minister, Peng Chi-ming, stated that broad public consensus would be required
recognising the technical challenges to such a restart programme coupled with
the estimated cost which could require several billion US dollars to extend
the operational life of a single nuclear unit. 15 

Taiwan's Legislative Yuan passed a proposal to hold a national referendum on
restarting the recently shuttered Maanshan NPP. Maanshan-2, the country's last
operating reactor, was shut down on 17 May under a 2016 law requiring the
phase-out of nuclear power based upon the expiration of each reactor's 40-year
operating license. Furthermore, the Taiwanese Parliament has reviewed
legislation which would allow decommissioned reactors to re-enter operation
and extend operating licenses by up to 20 years. 16 

Uzbekistan began construction of its multi-reactor project located in Jizzakh
region.  The project incorporates six 55 MW reactors (330 MW total) to be
provided by Russian nuclear company Rosatom, as an element of Uzbekistan's
renewable energy programme which aims to increase the share of renewable
energy from the current 16% to 54% by 2030. 17 

Denmark is considering lifting its 1985 ban on nuclear power to reduce its
dependence on natural gas imported from Russia and to meet the demand for
stable, affordable and environmentally friendly energy. 18 

In the United States, the Tennessee Valley Authority ("TVA") submitted its
application in June 2025 for a construction permit to build the country's
first small modular reactor ("SMR") at the Clinch River Nuclear Site in
Tennessee. The design incorporates the BWRX-300 technology developed by GE
Hitachi, in collaboration with TVA and international utility partners. Pending
regulatory review and licensing, TVA is targeting commissioning of the unit by
2032, positioning the project as a potential model for future SMR deployment
in the US. 19 

In May 2025, Belgium's Chamber of Representatives (Parliament) voted
overwhelmingly (102 in favour, 8 opposed, 31 abstentions) to reverse a 2003
law mandating a nuclear phase-out by 2025. This follows the March 2022
decision to delay the shutdown of the country's two newest reactors, Doel 4
and Tihange 3, by 10 years (to 2035). Belgium's first commercial nuclear
power reactor began operation in 1974 and its four currently operable reactors
have a combined capacity of 3,463 MWe. 20 

Uganda's Minister of Energy and Mineral Development announced that the country
plans to have the proposed Buyende NPP operating by 2031. Korea Hydro and
Nuclear Power recently signed an agreement to site evaluation of the Buyende
NPP project. Uganda's long-term electricity goal involves the development of
52.5 GW of generating capacity including an initial 1 GW from Buyende NPP by
2031, with a long-term nuclear target of 8.4 GW." 21 

Indonesia plans to commission its first NPP by 2034 as one component of the
national policy to diversify energy sources. The current energy plan calls for
two nuclear facilities hosting 500MW each to be located in Sumatra and
Kalimantan. 22 

Argentina announced that it had developed an indigenous SMR (ACR-300
multipurpose reactor; 300 MW) which forms a cornerstone of Argentina's Nuclear
Power Plan. The South American country plans to initiate construction of a
four-module facility at the existing Atucha NPP as well as licensing the
design for export sales. 23 

New York Governor, Kathy Hochul, directed the state public electricity
utility, New York Power Authority ("NYPA"), to develop at least one new
nuclear energy facility with a combined capacity of no less than one gigawatt
of electricity. The proposed NPP is to be sited in northern New York state.
NYPA will evaluate technologies, business models and locations for the first
NPP immediately. Currently, New York receives 21.4% of its electricity from
four NPPs (two-unit Nine Mile Point, Ginna and Fitzpatrick). 24 

The United Kingdom has approved a Final Investment Decision (FID) for the
construction of the Sizewell C nuclear power plant in Suffolk, England. The
government, alongside a consortium of private investors including La Caisse,
Centrica, Amber Infrastructure and EDF, has committed £38 billion to the
project. The two-unit plant, expected to produce 3.3 GWe of low-carbon
electricity, will replicate the Hinkley Point C design. This marks a
significant step forward in the UK's long-term energy strategy, with
construction now set to proceed following financial close and regulatory
approvals.  25 

Kazakhstan, the world's largest uranium producer, has selected Russian nuclear
energy company, Rosatom, to supply the country's first NPP which will be a
VVER-1200 model. China's CNNC) has been selected to provide Kazakhstan's
second NPP.  Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP), a subsidiary of
Kazakhstan's Samruk-Kazyna National Welfare Fund JSC will oversee the nuclear
power development. 26 

 

Uranium Production / Nuclear Fuel Supply

UxC published its annual summary of global uranium production addressing
CY2024.  Total worldwide output of U(3)O(8) reached 157 million lb as
compared to the 2023 aggregate production of 142 million lb, an increase of
11% year-on-year. Kazakhstan remained the leading producing country at 60.5
million lb, representing 38.6% of the global aggregate followed by Canada
where the operation of Cigar Lake and McArthur River totalled 37.2 million lb
(23.7% of the worldwide output). Uranium production in Namibia registered 19.1
million lb, an increase of 5% over 2023 and providing 12.2% of global
production. Australia was the fourth leading uranium producer, recording 12.0
million lb, a decrease of 1% from the previous year while accounting for 7.7%
of the aggregate.  Uzbekistan's uranium operations yielded 10.4 million lb,
(6.6% of the global total). As a result, the five leading uranium producing
countries contributed just under 90% of the global aggregate, emphasizing the
significant concentration in the uranium production sector. 27 

 

Market Outlook

The global spot uranium market continued to strengthen through the Quarter,
accompanied by intra-month volatility, as evidenced by the approximately 10%
spot price increase in mid-June in response to the Sprott Physical Uranium
Trust's capital raising and anticipated spot market buying. 28  Geopolitical
factors, such as the tariff regime being implemented by the Trump
Administration, have injected further uncertainties into the market, which may
continue into the current quarter. While spot market transactional volume
remains comparable to 2024 levels, some market participants expect that spot
market demand could increase over the remainder of this year, potentially
placing moderate upward pressure on pricing. 29 

The uranium term market has shown minimal activity throughout the first half
of 2025, as utilities await clarification of tariff effects, potential
international sanctions affecting deliveries of Russian-sourced nuclear fuel
into the European Union and United States, and the progress of nuclear power
expansion plans-including possible increases in nuclear capacity from data
centres and SMR adoption. The reported term uranium price has remained at or
close to US$80/lb for more than a year, reflecting the level generally
required to support uranium projects returning from care and maintenance. 30 
However, over the longer term, prices above current levels may be required to
incentivise greenfield uranium production. Nuclear utilities, particularly in
the United States, have begun issuing Requests for Proposals specifying
delivery periods commencing later this decade and extending into the 2030s,
which may support a shift in term market activity over time. 31 

 

Net Asset Value

Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 30 June 2025 was £5.77 per share
or US$1,715.6 million, consisting of 21.68 million lb of U(3)O(8) valued at a
spot price of US$78.50/lb 32  and cash and other current assets and
liabilities of US$13.5 million. 33 

   Yellow Cake Estimated Net Asset Value as at 30 June 2025
                                                                                Units
   Investment in Uranium
   Uranium oxide in concentrates ("U(3)O(8)")                  (A)              lb               21,682,318
   U(3)O(8) fair value per pound(32)                           (B)              US$/lb           78.50
   U(3)O(8) fair value                                         (A) x (B) = (C)  US$ m            1,702.1

   Cash and other net current assets/(liabilities)             (D)              US$ m            13.5
   Net asset value in US$ m                                    (C) + (D) = (E)  US$ m            1,715.6

   Exchange Rate 34                                            (F)              USD/GBP          1.3703
   Net asset value in £ m                                      (E) / (F) = (G)  £ m              1,252.0
   Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury 35   (H)                               216,856,447

   Net asset value per share                                   (G) / (H)        £/share          5.77

 

 

Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 29 July 2025 was £5.35 per share
or US$1,549.7 million, based on 21.68 million lb of U(3)O(8) valued at a
spot price of US$70.85/lb 36  and cash and other current assets and
liabilities of US$13.5 million as at 30 June 2025.

   Yellow Cake Estimated Net Asset Value as at 29 July 2025
                                                                                Units
   Investment in Uranium
   Uranium oxide in concentrates ("U(3)O(8)")                  (A)              lb               21,682,318
   U(3)O(8) fair value per pound(36)                           (B)              US$/lb           70.85
   U(3)O(8) fair value                                         (A) x (B) = (C)  US$ m            1,536.2

   Cash and other net current assets/(liabilities) 37          (D)              US$ m            13.5
   Net asset value in US$ m                                    (C) + (D) = (E)  US$ m            1,549.7

   Exchange Rate                                               (F)              USD/GBP          1.3353
   Net asset value in £ m                                      (E) / (F) = (G)  £ m              1,160.6
   Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury 38   (H)                               216,856,447

   Net asset value per share                                   (G) / (H)        £/share          5.35

 

ENQUIRIES:

 Yellow Cake plc
 Andre Liebenberg, CEO                    Carole Whittall, CFO
 Tel: +44 (0) 153 488 5200

 Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker: Canaccord Genuity Limited
 James Asensio                            Henry Fitzgerald-O'Connor
 Charlie Hammond
 Tel: +44 (0) 207 523 8000

 Joint Broker: Berenberg
 Matthew Armitt                           Jennifer Lee
 Detlir Elezi
 Tel: +44 (0) 203 207 7800

 Financial Adviser: Bacchus Capital Advisers
 Peter Bacchus                            Richard Allan
 Tel: +44 (0) 203 848 1640

 Communications Adviser: Sodali & Co
 Peter Ogden                              James Whitaker
 Tel: +44 (0) 7793 858 211

 

 

ABOUT YELLOW CAKE

Yellow Cake is a London-quoted company, headquartered in Jersey, which offers
exposure to the uranium spot price. This is achieved through its strategy of
buying and holding physical triuranium octoxide ("U(3)O(8)"). It may also seek
to add value through other uranium-related activities. Yellow Cake and its
wholly owned subsidiary (the "Group") seek to generate returns for
shareholders through the appreciation of the value of its holding of U(3)O(8)
and its other uranium-related activities in a rising uranium price
environment. The business is differentiated from its peers by its ten-year
Framework Agreement for the supply of U(3)O(8) with Kazatomprom, the world's
largest uranium producer. The Group currently holds 21.68 million pounds of
U(3)O(8), all of which is held in storage in Canada and France.

 

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS

Certain statements contained herein are forward looking statements and are
based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the potential
returns of the Group and the industry and markets in which the Group will
operate, the Directors' beliefs and assumptions made by the Directors. Words
such as "expects", "anticipates", "should", "intends", "plans", "believes",
"seeks", "estimates", "projects", "pipeline", "aims", "may", "targets",
"would", "could" and variations of such words and similar expressions are
intended to identify such forward looking statements and expectations. These
statements are not guarantees of future performance or the ability to identify
and consummate investments and involve certain risks, uncertainties and
assumptions that are difficult to predict, qualify or quantify. Therefore,
actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed in
such forward looking statements or expectations. Among the factors that could
cause actual results to differ materially are: uranium price volatility,
difficulty in sourcing opportunities to buy or sell U(3)O(8), foreign exchange
rates, changes in political and economic conditions, competition from other
energy sources, nuclear accident, loss of key personnel or termination of the
services agreement with 308 Services Limited, changes in the legal or
regulatory environment, insolvency of counterparties to the Group's material
contracts or breach of such material contracts by such counterparties. These
forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this announcement. The
Group expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any
updates or revisions to any forward looking statements contained herein to
reflect any change in the Group's expectations with regard thereto or any
change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements are
based unless required to do so by applicable law or the AIM Rules.

 

 1            Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 31 March
2025.

 2            Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 30 June
2025.

 3            Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 29 July
2025.

 4            Estimated net asset value as at 31 March 2025 of
US$1,414.4 million comprises 21.68 million lb of U(3)O(8) valued at the
daily spot price of US$64.45/lb published by UxC, LLC on 31 March 2025 and
cash and other current assets and liabilities of US$17.0 million. Estimated
net asset value per share as at 31 March 2025 is calculated assuming
221,440,730 ordinary shares in issue less 4,584,283 shares held in treasury on
that date and the Bank of England's daily USD/GBP exchange rate of 1.2910 on
31 March 2025.

 5            Estimated net asset value as at 30 June 2025 of
US$1,715.6 million comprises 21.68 million lb of U(3)O(8) valued at the
daily spot price of US$78.50/lb published by UxC, LLC on 30 June 2025 and cash
and other current assets and liabilities of US$13.5 million. Estimated net
asset value per share as at 30 June 2025 is calculated assuming 221,440,730
ordinary shares in issue less 4,584,283 shares held in treasury on that date
and the Bank of England's daily USD/GBP exchange rate of 1.3703 on 30 June
2025.

 6            Estimated net asset value as at 29 July 2025 of
US$1,549.7 million comprises 21.68 million lb of U(3)O(8) valued at the
daily spot price of US$70.85/lb published by UxC, LLC on 29 July 2025 and cash
and other current assets and liabilities of US$13.5 million as at
30 June 2025. Estimated net asset value per share as at 29 July 2025 is
calculated assuming 221,440,730 ordinary shares in issue less 4,584,283 shares
held in treasury on that date and a USD/GBP exchange rate of 1.3353.

 7       Ux Weekly; "Ux Price Indicators"; 31 March and 30 June 2025.

 8       Ux Weekly; "The Market"; 7 July 2025.

 9       World Nuclear News; "US Companies welcome Executive Orders"; 30
May 2025.

 10    Agence France-Presse;  "World Bank lifts ban on nuclear energy
financing"; 12 June 2025.

 11    Euratom Supply Agency; "Annual Report 2024" (Draft Layout); 20 June
2025).

 12    World Nuclear News; "Ten new reactors approved in China"; 28 April
2025.

 13    World Nuclear News; "India's power ministry sets out steps to faster
nuclear power expansion"; 29 April 2025.

 14    Business North East; "Vietnam incorporates Nuclear energy into its
$136 Billion Strategy to Enhance Power Capacity"; 17 April 2025.

 15    TVBS News; "Billions needed for nuclear restarts, Taiwan minister
says"; 17 April 2025.

 16    World Nuclear News; "Referendum proposed for restart of Taiwan's
Maanshan nuclear power plant"; 21 May 2025.

 17    The Times of Central Asia; "Nuclear Energy Project in Uzbekistan
Enters Construction Phase"; 29 April 2025.

 18    Reuters; "Denmark is considering lifting 40-year-old nuclear power
ban, minister says"; 14 May 2025.

 19    World Nuclear News; "Clinch River application accepted for review"; 19
July 2025.

 20    Belganewsagency.eu; "Belgium abandons nuclear exit plans"; 15 May
2025.

 21    Monitor.co.ug; "Buyende Nuclear Power Plant to generate Initial 1,000
MW by 2031 - Energy Minister"; 28 May 2025.

 22    Jakarta Globe; "Indonesia Plan First Nuclear Power Plant by 2034, Eyes
Partnerships with Russia and Canada"; 24 June 2025.

 23    World Nuclear News; "Argentina aiming for SMR and uranium
developments"; 6 June 2025.

 24    World Nuclear News; New York Governor announces plans for new nuclear
plant"; 24 June 2025.

 25     Gov.UK press release; "Sizewell C gets green light with final
investment decision"; 22 July 2025

 26    World Nuclear News; "Kazakhstan selects Rosatom for first nuclear
power plant"; 16 June 2025.

 27    Ux Weekly; "2024 U(3)O(8) Production Review"; 12 May 2025.

 28    Investing News Network; "Sprott Uranium Trust Launches US$200M Bought
Deal Financing"; 13 June 2025.

 29    Sprott Asset Management; "Uranium's Mid-Year Momentum: Sector
Strengthens as Capital Flows In"; July 2025.

 30    Cameco Corporation; Q1 2025 Conference Call Transcript; 30 April 2025.

 31    Sprott Uranium Watch; "June 2025: Utilities Return to Long-Term
Contracting"; 28 June 2025.

 32         Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 30 June 2025.

 33         Cash and cash equivalents and other net current assets and
liabilities as at 30 June 2025.

 34         Bank of England's daily USD/GBP exchange rate as at 30
June 2025.

 35         Estimated net asset value per share on 30 June 2025 is
calculated assuming 221,440,730 ordinary shares in issue less 4,584,283 shares
held in treasury on that date.

 36         Daily spot price published by UxC, LLC on 29 July 2025.

 37         Cash and other current assets and liabilities as at 30 June
2025.

 38         Estimated net asset value per share on 29 July 2025 is
calculated assuming 221,440,730 ordinary shares in issue, less 4,584,283
shares held in treasury on that date.

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