ZIM’s shipping boom softens deal shipwreck

Zim Integrated Shipping Services

21/08/2026 10:42

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
By Yawen Chen
LONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services 2SV.F is languishing in the wake of the latest container shipping boom. Shares in Denmark’s Maersk, the world’s second-largest container shipping group behind MSC, have jumped 32% since the Iran war began. ZIM, by contrast, is down 7% despite reporting better than expected second-quarter results. The obvious drag is uncertainty over Hapag-Lloyd's HLAG.DE $4.2 billion takeover bid. But with ZIM's outlook brightening, investors have reason to believe the shares can eventually catch up.
Hapag agreed in February to pay $35 a share, or $4.2 billion, for ZIM. For the German acquirer, the deal would give it a larger fleet, help it use vessels more efficiently, spread its costs and strengthen its bargaining power with ports and customers. Buying ZIM would also bolster Hapag’s position on the Asia-Pacific routes, where ZIM's volumes rose around 20% year-on-year in the second quarter.
Yet whether the deal happens or not is looking increasingly uncertain. ZIM is trading at $27 per share, about 23% below the offer. Israel must approve the transaction under its golden share, which gives the government special veto rights, and several ministries have raised national-security objections. Hapag still expects deal completion by year-end.
Yet ZIM’s new CEO Chen Lichtenstein can make the case that the company has room to close the gap with Hapag’s offer on its own. The shipping group trades at 6.4 times forecast 2027 EBITDA, against 7.5 times for Maersk, according to Visible Alpha. The discount partly reflects slower expected revenue growth this year — about 7.5%, versus 13.9% for Maersk, per Visible Alpha forecasts. But ZIM is expecting a significantly stronger performance in the second half of this year. If that translates into faster sales growth and narrows the gap with Maersk, closing the valuation discount would imply a share price of roughly $38.
A standalone ZIM would regain the freedom to return cash to shareholders, add vessels or pursue bolt-on deals. Fearnley Securities estimates it could end 2026 with roughly $3 billion in cash, enough to support a 25% dividend yield if the takeover fails. Israel may yet clear the deal. If not, ZIM's improving outlook could help its shares sail past Hapag-Lloyd's offer.
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CONTEXT NEWS
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services on August 19 said second-quarter revenue rose 9% year-on-year to $1.78 billion, while adjusted EBITDA increased 4% to $491 million.
The Israeli container shipping group expects significantly stronger performance in the second half and guided to $2.0 billion to $2.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA for 2026.
ZIM also said average freight rates rose 8% to $1,590 per container, and that it generated $386 million of free cash flow in the quarter.

(Editing by Aimee Donnellan; Production by Varun H K)
((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on CHEN/yawen.chen@thomsonreuters.com))