Graphic: Take Five: The Jackson Hole Jamboree

Zivo Bioscience

23/08/2021 07:37

(Repeats story from Friday, Aug 20 without changes to text)
    Aug 20 (Reuters) -    
    1/TAPER TENSIONS
    Fronted by Jerome Powell, the great and good of the central
banking world gather at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from Thursday to
Saturday. The big question for the Federal Reserve Chair: When
is taper time?
    The Fed is expected to outline taper plans in September but
markets are hoping for signals from Powell at the annual
research conference on the trajectory of the $120
billion-a-month asset purchase programme. 
    Easy-money policies have buttressed equities, and any
inklings about Fed plans to dial back could cause ructions, with
July minutes having just provided a taste of that. 
    Policymakers looked far from united in their views. But the
prospect of stimulus being reduced when the spread of the Delta
coronavirus variant and supply chain issues loom over a recovery
that has started to look tired has spooked markets. 
    
-Minutes reveal a Fed split over job market, bond-buying taper
 urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2PP14Z
-POLL-Fed to unveil bond-buying taper plan next month; jobless
rate to fall slowly  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nW1N2P603K
    
    2/PEAK PMI?
    It's been a good few months for European stocks. 
    Since March 2020, they've climbed more than 70%, hitting a
record high in recent days thanks to accelerating growth and
falling interest rates. European PMIs rose to a 20-year high and
inflation-adjusted bond yields are at record lows. 
    But there are headwinds in the form of rising prices, supply
chain issues, labour shortages and the Delta variant. 
    PMIs in the region over the next few days will show just how
strong those might be. 
    
-Toyota slashes September output amid chip crunch, COVID
resurgence.  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2PQ0PU
-Investors raise cash holdings, see limited equity upside - BoFA
survey  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N2PO1RZ

    3/ CHINA DRAWDOWN
    In recent weeks data for China's export growth, factory
output and retail sales have all missed forecasts as COVID-19
outbreaks dampened demand at home and abroad.
    Industrial profits due Friday may find some relief in the
recent retreat of commodity prices. But it's clear the world's
second-biggest economy now faces challenges and not all of them
can be dismissed by investors as short-term distortions.
    Policymakers have tried to help by cutting bank reserve
requirements to boost lending, and they have also attempted to
soothe worries about scattergun crackdowns. But that has yet to
calm equity markets, which have shed about $1 trillion in value
since February and still seem in search of a stable floor.

-UPDATE 2-China keeps lending benchmark LPR steady but more
stimulus expected  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2PR02O
-China economy under pressure as factory output, retail sales
growth slow sharply  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2PN03I

    4/FAULT LINES OLD AND NEW
    The aftershocks of the rapid fall of Afghanistan to Taliban
insurgents will continue to be felt in the days ahead. There is
little doubt as to the humanitarian impact of the crisis. The
longer-term fallout for the region's economy and global markets
is less certain - as is Washington's international role. 
    U.S. President Joe Biden has seen his approval ratings drop
to record lows, possibly making it harder for him to push
through his agenda. The relationship between the U.S. and
Britain - Washington's staunchest European ally - looks under
strain with Westminster lawmakers voicing unusual dissent.
    Vice President Kamala Harris' visit to Singapore and Vietnam
in coming days is aimed at countering China's growing influence.
But she will also have to contend with the Afghanistan crisis,
which has left allies questioning the credibility of U.S.
foreign policy promises. 
    
-Harris trip to Asia will show U.S. commitment to a 'free and
open Indo-Pacific'  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nW1N2BB042        
    
    5/ACHTUNG!
    The past few national elections in Germany have been rather
unexciting affairs. But a shift indicated in recent opinion
polls suggests the one on Sept. 26 could prove different.
    The centre-left Social Democrats have overtaken the Greens
and are closing the gap with Chancellor Angela Merkel's
conservative Christian Democrats.
    That means for the first time this year, a two-way coalition
between her conservatives and the Greens, one anticipated
outcome, is forecast to be narrowly short of a majority of
seats. 
    If that turns out to be the case, Europe's biggest economy
could be set for months of uncertainty; analysts note the range
of possible three-way coalition tie-ups is much wider than in
the past. Don't be surprised if markets pay more attention to
Germany in coming days.   
          
-German SPD overtakes Greens, close in on conservatives before
election  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N2PP1BR    
    
    

    <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Federal Reserve assets held    https://tmsnrt.rs/3mgbyRw
Peak PMIs    https://tmsnrt.rs/3xY5ZJD
China's dip keeps on dipping    https://tmsnrt.rs/3iVvWp0
China foreign direct investments    https://tmsnrt.rs/3gismUl
German election polls     https://tmsnrt.rs/37YCxZE
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
 (Reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore, Dhara Ranasinghe,
Saikat Chatterjee and Karin Strohecker in London, Lewis
Krauskopf in New York, compiled by Karin Strohecker; editing by
John Stonestreet)
 ((karin.strohecker@thomsonreuters.com; +442075427262; Reuters
Messaging: karin.strohecker.reuters.com@reuters.net))