Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 30th December 2025) - GMS, OCDO, AVAP, ALRT, LIT, JIM

Good morning! I’ll be with you for the penultimate day of the year. As Graham said yesterday, it is a time of little news, apart from the odd bit of bad news companies hope to sneak in, or results running it to the wire. So expecting it to be a quiet day, interspersed with moments of weakness!

10:50 - With nothing of interest left to report on, I'm ending the report early today. See you tomorrow for the rush of company results to avoid suspension!

Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link (updated to 26/12).


Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)RNSSummaryOur view (Author)

Lion Finance (LON:BGEO) (£4bn | SR84)

Executive Management Updates

Mikheil Gomarteli, Deputy CEO, stepping down from the executive role to be a non-exec.Levan Kobakhidze appointed as Bank of Georgia's new Head of Payments business.

Ocado (LON:OCDO) (£2.01bn | SR16)

Exclusivity with International Partners

Mutual exclusivity has now ended with retailers in the majority of markets where Ocado's technology is currently live, including with Kroger.

AMBER/RED = (Mark) [no section below]
The company suggests that ending exclusivity is a positive move as “This enables Ocado to bring its proven and much evolved technology offering back to market in many of the world's largest grocery markets." However, this clearly opens up the door for customers to explore other options (or threaten to in order to get reduced costs).
Going with Ocado has often made sense for retailers, especially those who are cash-strappped, or behind the times on delivery services, as Ocado has often agreed to meet all the capital costs of building fulfilment centres based on their technology.
Things seem to have changed, though, as Graham commented on the DSMR earlier this month that Kroger appear to have been so keen to exit two of their CFC sites, they agreed to pay large compensation fees to Ocado.

What hasn’t changed is that the investment case here looks questionable, at best.

Empire Metals (LON:EEE) (£263m | SR27)

Conditional Sale of 75% of Eclipse Gold Project

Sale of Empire's 75% interest in the Eclipse ML, a non-core gold asset for A$750k cash.

Gulf Marine Services (LON:GMS) (£216m | SR74)

Contract

Two-year contract extension (one firm year plus a one-year option) for one of its Mid-size vessels currently operating in the GCC region. Company's backlog has increased to $607m.

AMBER/GREEN = (Mark)
I have a couple of minor concerns. Firstly, they make no mention of rates in today’s extension, and enhanced rates matter far more than a backlog number to the investment case here. Secondly, the rise in the share price to the top of the recent trading range, appears to more than price in recent news.
However, the positives that Roland highlighted in his Christmas Eve coverage remain; the shares trade at a discount to TBV and with net debt being paid down, there should be scope for shareholder returns in coming years, as long as management can resist the siren song of ordering more ships. So, while the valuation case at today’s 19p share price is not as strong as it was at 15p, it is still positive enough.

Savannah Energy (LON:SAVE) (£145m | SR69)

Operational and Financial Update

11M 2025 average gross daily production of 19.1 Kboepd (11M 2024: 22.8 Kboepd), of which 84% was gas (11M 2024: 88%).
11M 2025 Total Revenue $218.1m (11M 2024: $226.7m) and 11M 2025 cash collections of $260.8m, an increase of 5.5% on the prior year (11M 2024: $247.3m);
30 Nov cash balances were $59.8m (31 Dec 24: $32.6m) and net debt $652.5m (31 Dec 24: $636.9m).

Pantheon Resources (LON:PANR) (£113m | SR22)Final ResultsLoss $5.0m FY24: $13.4m loss). · During FY25 raised $64.0m via Convertible Bond and equity issuances. Proceeds were primarily used the Megrez-1 drilling programme, preparatory activities for the Dubhe-1 well, and G&A.
30 Jun cash $13.2 million (FY24: $7.9m). Post year-end, the Company raised a further $46.25 million (before costs). These funds are being deployed to support execution of the Dubhe-1 work programme and to meet ongoing corporate and administrative requirements.

Avation (LON:AVAP) (£86.6m | SR42)

NEW AIRCRAFT DELIVERY

Delivered a new ATR 72-600 aircraft (one of the ten ATR 72-600 new aircraft ordered by Avation in 2024) to South Korean airline, SUM Air, on a two-year lease.

AMBER/RED (Mark) [no section below]
These ATR planes have proven to be good business for Avation, as they can be deployed to customers on good lease terms, or sold for a profit at the moment. However, a two-year lease seems a little short for this industry.
Fundamentally, this doesn’t change the investment case which is based on the shares trading at half their tangible book value. This is balanced by a couple of negatives in my opinion:
1. The rate the company pays on unsecured debt makes the current structure unproductive. The recent bond refinancing increased this rate by 25bps, leading brokers to cut EPS by 12%.
2. Rangely Capital were a large activist shareholder here and tried to force change. That they are no longer holders, with no narrowing of the discount to TBV, suggests to me that they failed to achieve what they wanted.
The recent narrative from the company is more of the same; a focus on fleet expansion, rather than shareholder returns.
While the company seems unable (via better debt refinancing) or unwilling (by selling assets or agreeing to a takeover) to take the necessary action to make their assets more productive, I suspect the discount will remain, making this a possible Value Trap.
Given the declining Momentum Rank and below-average StockRank, I am reducing our view a notch today, to reflect these factors.

Caspian Sunrise (LON:CASP) (£64.8m | SR41)

Re-issue of BNG Contract Area licences

Re-issue of the licences at the Airshagyl and Yelemes Deep structures, after significant tax concessions granted:
Airshagyl: A three-year appraisal licence has been issued during which the Group must submit credible plans to develop the Airshagyl structure.
Yelemes Deep: A two-year appraisal licence. Three further deep wells each with an expected maximum depth of 5km need to be drilled to be eligible for the award of a full 25-year production licence.

Zanaga Iron Ore (LON:ZIOC) (£63.7m | SR33)

Corporate and Project Workstreams Update

Have completed targeted project value enhancement workstreams on time and within budget, and look forward to announcing the results of these workstreams on the 6th of January.

Agronomics (LON:ANIC) (£63.2m | SR54)

Further equity investment in BlueNalu

$600k invested in BlueNalu Convertible Promissory Notes and $6m in Preferred Shares with consideration for the Share Subscription to be satisfied by the issue of 30,643,003 new Ordinary Shares at 14.65p. The subscription for the CPNs will be satisfied using cash from the Company's existing available resources. Agronomics' interest in BlueNalu is expected to be 12.96% on a fully diluted basis.

Zephyr Energy (LON:ZPHR) (£57.8m | SR11)

Year-end update

Q3 production from the Company's non-operated asset portfolio averaged 925 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("boepd"), net to Zephyr, versus average net production in Q2 of 632 boepd. Production from the Slawson wells recommenced in October 2025 and is expected to add additional production of circa 130 boepd, net to Zephyr, in the fourth quarter of 2025 ("Q4").

Defence Holdings (LON:ALRT) (£50.5m | SR18)

New National Security Pillar & Strategic Collaboration with Gloucestershire Police

A strategic collaboration with Gloucestershire Police to deliver a Proof-of-Value (PoV1) programme for AI-enabled automation of ROVI (Record of Video Interview) and ROTI (Record of Taped Interview) reporting.

RED (Mark) [no section below]
A strategic collaboration for a “Proof of Value” presumably means that they have agreed to do a lot of work at their own cost to try and see if they can make something work. This seems to be so far away from producing any actual revenue or profits, that I question why this was released as a “Trading & Operational Update” RNS rather than a press release.
Likewise, a company with a market cap of £50m, with historical revenue of £4.3m, a figure lower than the previous two years, and no broker coverage, seems to be very far away from an interesting investment proposition. I can’t help but take a very negative view on this “Sucker Stock”, no matter how many times they issue an RNS with the phrase “AI” in it!

Europa Oil & Gas (Holdings) (LON:EOG) (£18.5m | SR19)

EG-08 Farm-out Agreement Signed

Fuhai will acquire 40% working interest in EG-08 in return for funding 95% of the costs (the "Fuhai Carry") of the Barracuda well, up to a cap of $53 million for the total well cost ("Total Well Cost"). Antler shall fund the remaining 5% of the Total Well Cost


Litigation Capital Management (LON:LIT) (£8.3m | SR22)

Covenant Waiver Extension

Debt covenant waiver from its lender, Northleaf Capital Partners (Canada) Ltd ("Northleaf"), that was due to expire on 30 December 2025 has been extended to 31 January 2026.

RED = (Mark) [no section below]
While this is not as shocking an announcement as when Roland reviewed this on Christmas Eve, it highlights the perils here. The debt covenant waiver is extended on the day, and only for one month.
I think Roland may be wrong about this being suspended tomorrow, as they released audited results to 30th June here.
However, in my opinion, the most likely outcome remains that lenders assume control of the business, wiping out shareholders.

Jarvis Securities (LON:JIM) (£7.6m | SR83)

Audited Results, FCA Update & Notice of GM

As at 29th December 2025 the Group currently has cash of £10.4m.
Due to historic breaches of FCA conduct of business rules determined it has incurred an obligation to provide redress to certain clients. Having taken legal advice, currently estimates that this will incur a liability over the next 12 months in the region of £2.8m.
Still the intention of the Directors to seek cancellation of the Company's admission to trading on AIM.

AMBER/RED = (Mark) [no section below]
It is tempting to think £10.4m + £2m contingent payments - £2.8m = £9.6m, which is 26% higher than last night’s market cap. However, those contingent payments probably require investors who are moved from X-O to ii, not to leave, which is not a given. Plus the redress could be significantly higher, and there will be ongoing costs of winding all this down.
Overall, it is hard to see investors getting more than the current share price even if these figures are accurate, and they will have to hold unlisted equity to get it, making it an unattractive return.

* Market caps at previous trading day’s close


Mark’s Section:

Gulf Marine Services (LON:GMS)

Up 3% at 19.3p - Contract - Mark - AMBER/GREEN

It’s another contract win announced over the festive period:

…a two-year contract extension (comprising one firm year plus a one-year option) for one of its Mid-size vessels currently operating in the GCC region. With this extension secured, the company's backlog has increased to $607 million.

Shareholders have certainly warmed to these announcements, with the shares up 20% on the month, and with the backlog now reaching a recent high, this shows the strength of their delivery.

Roland did a detailed review of the previous two contract extensions on Christmas Eve, so I won’t repeat that coverage. However, I think it is worth pointing out a couple of things:

Firstly, these contracts have added £45m to the market cap, or around $60m. The backlog has increased by $90m since the half-year. With a Gross Margin around 47% in H1, this will have added around $42m of additional PBT over the lifetime of these contracts. So the market has more than priced these contract wins/extensions on a purely numerical basis. Of course, these announcements also improve sentiment, and this is a share price that has repeatedly cycled between about 15p and 20p in recent times, so these moves make sense not just on a pure valuation basis. However, it is worth noting that the share price is now approaching the top of that trading range and it will probably require new positive news, not just contract extensions to break out of that existing 15-20p trading range.

My second concern is what is not said in today’s announcement. When announcing a contract extension on 13th March this year, the company said “These extensions, secured at enhanced rates…”. So the implication may be that they haven’t been able to secure higher rates for this contract. Broker Zeus makes no change in forecasts today. I haven’t seen them comment on rates for new contracts. However, average day rates were up by 8% in H1. With utilisation typically around 90%, and the need to move rigs for new contracts, any growth here is going to come from only two sources. The first is new vessels. Fleet expansion is something most shareholders would oppose, given the history of capital allocation. The second is enhanced rates. What rate enhancements they manage to deliver in H2, plus the rate outlook for 2026 will be the key figures to watch when the financial results are released.

Mark’s view

The positives that Roland highlighted in his review remain; the shares trade at a discount to TBV and with net debt being paid down, there should be scope for shareholder returns in coming years, as long as management can resist the siren song of ordering more ships. So while the valuation case at today’s 19p share price is not as strong as it was at 15p, it is still positive enough for me to keep an AMBER/GREEN view.

Given the constraints on the business, rate trajectory is absolutely key here, and matters far more than overall backlog. Especially, if these assets are to become much more productive, and hence make the business deserving of trading at a premium to tangible book value. This will be what we will be looking for when the financial results are released.

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