Good morning! Hoping for another batch of "ahead" updates, but yesterday will be hard to beat...
Today's Agenda is complete.
Companies Reporting
| Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our View (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) (£103bn | SR77) | Copper production +11% in 2025, ahead of guidance. Pilbara iron ore flat. Aluminium production +3% (upper end of guidance). 2026 production guidance unchanged. | ||
Experian (LON:EXPN) (£29.6bn | SR62) | Q3 revenue +12% (+8% organic), in line with expectations. FY26 expectations unchanged. | ||
Pearson (LON:PSON) (£6.0bn | SR73) | £350m share buyback programme. First tranche of £175m to complete by 21 May 26. | ||
ICG (LON:ICG) (£5.9bn | SR82) | Fee-earning AUM of $85bn, +1% QoQ, +11% YoY. $36bn of dry powder, completed $4.4bn fundraising. | ||
Burberry (LON:BRBY) (£4.4bn | SR57) | Q3 revenue +1% to £665m. Comparable store sales +3%. Expected FY26 adj operating profit to be in line with consensus of £149m. | ||
British Land (LON:BLND) (£4.1bn | SR66) | Strong leasing momentum, with 151 deals averaging 8.5% ahead of ERV. FY26 expectations unchanged for adj EPS of at least 28.5p. | ||
Aberdeen (LON:ABDN) (£4.0bn | SR90) | AUMA +9% to £556bn, with positive market movements offsetting net outflows of £3.9bn. FY25 adj operating profit to be in line with expectations. FY26 adj op profit to be at least £300m. | ||
JD Sports Fashion (LON:JD.) (£3.9bn | SR78) | Q4 revenue +1.4% (-1.8% LFL). YTD revenue +2.2% (-2.1% LFL). Improved sales in NAm, weaker in Europe and UK. FY26 adj PBT to be in line with market exps, expect free cash flow of c.£400m. | ||
Hochschild Mining (LON:HOC) (£3.1bn | SR74) | FY production in line with revised guidance. Gold equiv. -10.5% to 311.5koz. AISC “marginally above” guidance of $1,980-$2,080/GE oz. 2026 guidance 300-328k GE oz with AISC of $2,157-$2,320/GE oz. | ||
Drax (LON:DRX) (£3.0bn | SR99) | Acquired Flexitricity Limited from Quinbrook for £36m. Provides optimisation and route-to-market for flexible energy assets (e.g. battery storage). | ||
Quilter (LON:QLT) (£2.6bn | SR85) | Q4 AUMA of £141.2bn, +5% vs Q3. Q4 core net inflows of £2.4bn, FY25 core net inflows of £9.1bn. | ||
Premier Foods (LON:PFD) (£1.47bn | SR79) | Strong Christmas, Q3 Branded revenue +5.2%, total revenue +4.1%. Expect FY trading profit at upper end of expectations (£193.0 to 198.2m). | AMBER/GREEN = (Roland) Today’s update suggests continued good progress across the group’s core UK brands and its newer growth initiatives. My overall impression is positive, with the caveat that this isn’t a business I’d want to pay a very high multiple for. It’s also worth noting that the company’s house broker – presumably well-informed – does not see the need to change its forecasts today, as they were already close to updated guidance. On balance, I don’t see any reason to alter our broadly positive view today. | |
Currys (LON:CURY) (£1.39bn | SR96) | Peak LFL revenue +6%, H1 revenue +4% LFL. Gross margin improvements. Adj pre-tax profit to be £180 to 190m, ahead of consensus exps of £180m. | ||
Elementis (LON:ELM) (£940m | SR68) | 2025 revenue to be in line, adj operating profit “marginally ahead” of consensus. | ||
J D Wetherspoon (LON:JDW) (£824m | SR49) | LFL sales +4.7% in 25 weeks to 18 Jan, total sales +5.3% YTD. Costs higher than expected, H1 profit likely to be lower than last year, currently anticipates FY profit “slightly below” FY25. | ||
Workspace (LON:WKP) (£793m | SR49) | Enquiries lower in Q3, but letting conversion improved. LFL occupancy +0.9% to 81.2%, with LFL rent/sq ft -1.4%. £106m of disposals secured. Trading in line with expectations. | ||
Serica Energy (LON:SQZ) (£774m | SR91) | 2025 production -20% to 34,600 boepd, in line with guidance. Revenue -17.3% to $601m. Net debt $200m at 31 Dec 25. 2026: expect production “over 40,000 boepd”, with the potential to reach 65kboped following completion of recently announced acquisitions. | ||
Volex (LON:VLX) (£756m | SR90) | 9M revenue +14.8% to $902.7m, benefiting from Data Centre demand. FY26 revenue and adj operating profit now expected to be ahead of consensus ($1,152.3m & $112.7m, respectively). | AMBER/GREEN = (Roland) Volex appears to be executing well and profiting from the AI Data Centre boom. While performance in other parts of the business appears to have been flatter in Q3, I continue to think that the outlook and valuation are broadly positive, so my view remains unchanged today. | |
Galliford Try Holdings (LON:GFRD) (£528m | SR95) | Trading ahead of the prior year, and the Board's expectations. Now expects full-year revenue to be towards the upper end of expectations and for adjusted profit before tax to be slightly above the top end of expectations (current range: £46.8m to £47.7m). Average month-end cash for 2025 was £189.9m. Strong pipeline of medium and long-term opportunities. | ||
Everplay (LON:EVPL) (£486m | SR57) | Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2025 in line with current market expectations (£48.5m). Exited a low-margin distribution business, which is a headwind to revenues. Revenues therefore broadly flat and below expectations. “New release line up for 2026 is set to be one of everplay's most exciting and extensive to date.” | BLACK (revenue warning only, adjusted EBITDA in line. £173.6m revenuew was expected, actual revenue will be broadly flat on last year’s £167m). | |
Avacta (LON:AVCT) (£231m | SR24) | FDA clearance of the Investigational New Drug (IND) application for the Company's second program FAP-Exd (AVA6103), the first pre|CISION® peptide drug conjugate based on the highly potent topoisomerase I inhibitor, exatecan. | ||
Kenmare Resources (LON:KMR) (£227m | SR47) | Achieved production guidance. Capital expenditure will be significantly reduced in the year ahead. Primary operating focus for 2026 will be on value over volume. Annual production guidance for 2026 is therefore lower than in recent years. Further reduction in pricing assumptions to cause an impairment charge that is not anticipated to exceed $300 million for the year. | ||
City of London Investment (LON:CLIG) (£197m | SR97) | Cooper Abbott was President and Chairman at Carillon Tower Advisors which he founded and built into a $70+ billion global asset management company. | ||
Avingtrans (LON:AVG) (£179m | SR79) | H1 trading to 30 November 2025 was in line with management expectations. “We remain confident in our ability to meet market expectations for FY26…” | ||
Foxtons (LON:FOXT) (£155m | SR54) | Acquisition builds on the Group's strategy to grow non‑cyclical, recurring Lettings earnings whilst also expanding the Group's footprint into Birmingham. Initial consideration of £3.2m, with a further £0.8m deferred. FleetMilne’s recent revenue and PBT were £1.5m and £0.2m. | ||
KEFI Gold and Copper (LON:KEFI) (£148m | SR35) | Final documentation with respect to the US$240M Loan Facility is fully signed. $100m of equity-risk capital is undergoing final documentation. Additional offerings which are “not dilutive at the plc or asset level” for $36m are being considered. Following the December placing, a number of works related to the Tulu Kapi Gold Project have commenced or advanced this month. | ||
AFC Energy (LON:AFC) (£137m | SR13) | Completion of the first build of new generation LC30 30kW liquid-cooled fuel cell generator. Now undergoing operational testing and producing power in accordance with its design specification. | ||
Shield Therapeutics (LON:STX) (£119m | SR36) | In line with guidance, achieved positive operating cash flow in Q4 2025 (“a significant milestone”). FY25 total revenues c. $50m ($32m in FY24). ACCRUFeR® contributed $46m of this and saw 21% growth in average net selling price to $223 and 33% growth in total prescriptions to c.199,000. | ||
Journeo (LON:JNEO) (£84m | SR87) | Revenues for FY25 of £55m (2024: £50m), with adjusted PBT slightly ahead of market expectations at £5.7m (2024: £5.0m). “We enter 2026 with confidence in delivering on another year of significant growth.” Cavendish updated forecasts: | GREEN ↑ (Roland) [no section below] Today’s ahead update is Journeo’s third broker upgrade in four months. The company is effectively telling us that Journeo’s adjusted pre-tax margin for the year is now expected to be 10.4%, versus 10.0% previously. This improvement in profitability outweighs the slight downgrade to revenue guidance, which is cut from £56m to £55m. My reading of this is that costs have come in slightly lower than expected for some reason. This is obviously good news, although I’d be more excited if revenue was also being upgraded as that would indicate a potential increase in sales growth. Stripping out the year-end net cash balance of £12m gives me a cash-adjusted FY25E P/E of 15, falling to a P/E of 12 in FY26. I don’t think this looks too expensive for a business that’s generating high-teens returns on capital and is expected to report 25% earnings growth in 2026. I’m going to take a chance today and upgrade our view to be fully positive. | |
Andrada Mining (LON:ATM) (£79m | SR26) | Conditional, staged earn-in agreement. ACAM could provide up to $51 million in staged funding to accelerate the exploration and development of the Brandberg West polymetallic prospecting licence. | ||
1Spatial (LON:SPA) (£76m | SR26) | 73p per share in cash. 57% premium. Follows on from the announcement of an agreement in principle in December. Irrevocable undertakings and non-binding letters of intent to vote in favour for 52.45% of shares. | PINK | |
Ilika (LON:IKA) (£66m | SR19) | First revenue-generating purchase order from Cirtec Medical (Cirtec) for the supply of Stereax electrodes, marking the commercial transition of this strategic partnership. | ||
Getbusy (LON:GETB) (£42m | SR38) | Group ARR +8% (cc) to £22.6m. Revenue at least £22m (+ 5% cc) and adjusted EBITDA £0.3m, in line. Net cash £0.9m. Company “well positioned to deliver material cash returns to shareholders in the medium term”. | ||
Headlam (LON:HEAD) (£37m | SR32) | Full year results in line with expectations, with trading in the final months of 2025 having been as expected. | ||
Tan Delta Systems (LON:TAND) (£24m | SR25) | 2025 revenue is expected to be c. £1.2m, 20% ahead of management expectations as of Sep 2025. Cash c. £1.5m with no debt. 2026 pipeline of interest remains strong. |
Roland's Section
Volex (LON:VLX)
Up 6.5% at 435p (£822m) - Trading Update - Roland - AMBER/GREEN
Booming demand for AI Data Centres has allowed cabling manufacturer Volex to upgrade its full-year guidance today.
The company says that revenue and underlying operating profit for the full year are now expected to exceed previous consensus forecasts of $1,152.3m and $112.7m respectively.
By the numbers:
Strong trading reported in H1 continued into the company’s third quarter, which saw revenue rise by 14.8% on a constant currency basis. CEO Nat Rothschild says the company’s Data Centre business saw “elevated demand”, reflecting global investment in AI and digital infrastructure.
Growth from other industrial customers was said to be robust, with flatter performances in other markets such as Electric Vehicles, Medical and Consumer Electricals.
Operating margins are said to have remained strong, “around the upper end of the group’s 9-10% target range”. This result has been supported by price rises, cost control and efficiency gains.
Net debt is also said to have fallen, with covenant leverage now around 1.0x. This appears to address a concern I flagged in November.
Improved Outlook for FY26
With the year end approaching in March, Volex now has sufficient visibility to upgrade guidance:
With good momentum into the final quarter, we now expect to exceed current market expectations, thereby giving increased confidence in achieving our five-year plan targets.
Volex helpfully provides details of FY26 consensus forecasts in today’s update:
Revenue: $1,145.1m to $1,167.4m (average: $1,152.3m);
Underlying operating profit: $111.7m to $114.9m (average: $112.7m).
We already know that brokers upgraded forecasts following November’s half-year results:
Today’s upgrade should extend this positive trend. While I don’t have access to any updated broker forecasts this morning, the c.7% share price rise this morning suggests to me that we could see full-year results perhaps 5% above previous estimates.
Based on Stockopedia’s FY26 consensus earnings of 37.5 cents per share, I’d estimate updated forecasts could be 39-40 cents per share, equivalent to a FY26E P/E of 15.
Roland’s view
I highlighted Volex as a UK-listed beneficiary of the AI data centre boom in our Stockopedia Panel discussion at November’s Mello. The company reported an 80% rise in Data Centre-related sales during H1, driving 48% revenue growth in its Complex Industrial Technology division.
Q3 sales growth appears to be a little more measured than this, but was still strong. My impression from today’s update is that Data Centres were the only substantial area of growth during the quarter.
I continue to see both risk and opportunity here. While demand for Data Centre products remains strong, Volex seems well positioned to benefit.
However, weaker sales performances elsewhere highlight the risk of a slowdown at some point.
In November, I concluded that the valuation and outlook were both broadly positive. That view is unchanged today, so I’m going to remain at AMBER/GREEN.
Premier Foods (LON:PFD)
Up 6% at 179p (£1.57bn) - Q3 Trading Update - Roland - AMBER/GREEN =
The maker of brands such as Mr Kipling and Bisto is the top riser on the Main Market this morning after a strong Christmas trading update. Full year trading profit is now expected to be at the upper end of expectations.
By the numbers:
Q3 branded revenue up 5.2%, total revenue up 4.1%
Grocery Branded revenue up 5.8%, Sweet Treats Branded revenue up 3.1%
Market share gains in Grocery and Sweet Treats
Revenue from new categories up by 29%
International revenue up 10%
Recent acquisitions delivered double-digit sales growth
Why it matters:
As we’ve discussed recently, Tesco reported sales growth of 3.8% over the comparable period, while Sainsbury’s managed 4.9%.
This means that Premier Foods’ performance appears to have broadly matched that of its supermarket customers.
In the Grocery category, which includes Christmas staples such as Paxo, Bisto and Ambrosia, it looks like Premier Foods’ sales may have been ahead of the biggest supermarkets.
Double-digit sales growth from recent acquisitions such as FUEL10K and Merchant Gourmet is also encouraging. In addition to providing evidence of the company’s successful approach to buy-and-build, these brands (which sell various high protein/fibre products) are also seen as having good potential in the weight-loss drug era, as consumers seek out healthier products.
While International revenue remains below 10% of the group total (as of H1 26), my feeling is that this could be a promising route for growth beyond the natural limit the company’s UK-centric brands are likely to face in their home market.
Outlook & Broker Estimates
Outlook guidance for the year to March 2026 is upbeat:
Trading profit for the FY25/26 financial year is now expected to be at the upper end of market expectations.
Premier Foods helpfully cites previous market expectations for trading profit (adjusted operating profit) as being £193.0m to £198.2m, with an average of £195.3m.
This is already a fairly narrow range. This suggests to me that any upgrade to broker estimates will be fairly modest.
Indeed, house broker Shore Capital has left its FY26 forecasts unchanged today, commenting that its estimate for a trading profit of c.£197m is already “broadly within that guided zone”.
On this basis (and given its status as the house broker), it seems logical for me to use Shore’s earnings forecasts as a guide to updated expectations:
FY26E adj EPS: 15.0p
FY27E adj EPS: 15.5p
These numbers are already similar to the consensus numbers on the StockReport and leave Premier Foods trading on a FY26E P/E of 12 after this morning’s gains.
Roland’s view
After a strong four-year run, Premier stock has cooled recently:
Despite this, earnings estimates were already moving higher before today’s update:
Assuming limited increase to EPS estimates, today’s share price gain means investors have re-rated the stock modestly higher. The P/E of 12 implied by Shore Capital’s latest forecasts compares to a P/E of 11 prior to today:
A QualityRank of 87 is encouraging, supported by mid-teens operating margins. But Premier Foods’ return on capital employed of <10% is a reminder that this is a relatively capital-intensive manufacturing business:
I would imagine that pricing will always be under pressure from the group’s much larger supermarket customers, too.
For these reasons, I wouldn’t want to pay a high multiple of earnings for this business. Looked at differently, the stock’s price/book ratio of 1.05 looks about right to me for a business generating a sub-10% return on equity.
This caveat aside, I am encouraged by progress and have a positive view of management. On balance, I’m going to leave our AMBER/GREEN view unchanged today.
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