UK politics: the prediction market Polymarket is increasingly influential in mainstream media reporting. The latest UK politics predictions there include:
90% chance Andy Burnham is the next PM in 2026, now that he has won the Makerfield by-election.
Only a 6% chance there is no “next PM” in 2026.
Or in sport:
14% chance that England win the World Cup (the most likely outcome is thought to be quarter-final elimination, with a 24% probability).
56% chance that Scotland are eliminated in Round of 32.
Betfair Exchange has generally been my preferred venue for checking odds, but the sheer variety of events that are available on Polymarket is very impressive!
Bank of England: there was no change to rates at the Bank of England yesterday, as expected. Two of the nine members of the MPC wanted an immediate rate hike to 4%.
Overnight market movements:
The FTSE is set to open down 0.25% at 10,370
S&P 500 is down 0.4% at 7,465
Brent crude is up 0.8% at $80.50/bbl
Gold is down 1.7% at $4,140/oz
Bitcoin is down 0.5% at $62,800
Companies Reporting
| Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
Barratt Redrow (LON:BTRW) (£3.7bn | SR47) | The new CFO was most recently CFO of Britvic plc. Previously CFO of British Airways. | ||
| Cordiant Digital Infrastructure (LON:CORD) (£957m | SR91) | Full Year Results for the Year Ended 31 March 2026 | Aggregate adjusted EBITDA and revenue of the portfolio up 7.8% and 9.9% respectively. NAV up share increased to 146p, total return of 16.3% (or 12.3% excluding the impact of FX). Revenue visibility is supported by £952.1 million of contracted revenue. Outlook: "...well positioned to benefit from structural growth in demand for digital infrastructure, driven by increasing data consumption, cloud adoption and the development of AI. Near-term performance is expected to reflect recent customer churn and project phasing, with new business anticipated to support momentum as the year progresses." | |
PPHE Hotel (LON:PPH) (£837m | SR42) | Euro Plaza Holdings, which holds approximately 33% of the Company, is opposed to the Fattal Proposal. Fattal has informed PPHE it would not be prepared to proceed with the Fattal Proposal in circumstances where Euro Plaza Holdings is opposed to such an offer. Accordingly, the Fattal Proposal is not capable of being delivered in its current form. The Company received an indicative proposal from another interested party. This interest is at a very preliminary stage and is currently being assessed. | TAKEOVER (GREEN) (Graham) | |
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) (£387m | SR85) | Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited 2026 AGM Operational & Corporate Update | The Shaikan Field remains offline following the precautionary shut-in on 28 February 2026. Almost all capital projects have been slowed or suspended. Cash of $66m as at 18 June 2026. Ready to restart production and exports immediately once safe to do so. | |
Redcentric (LON:RCN) (£195m | SR55) | Proposing to return up to £90 million to Shareholders by way of a Tender Offer at a price of £1.60 per ordinary share. Shareholders will have a Basic Entitlement to tender approximately 35.3% of their shares. | ||
Synthomer (LON:SYNT) (£182m | SR66) | Agreement to divest Synthomer a.s., the operating company for its Acrylate Monomers business based in the Czech Republic “The transaction consideration comprises a cash generation sharing arrangement of up to €12m over three years, with no initial consideration at closing.” | ||
Mobico (LON:MCG) (£139m | SR48) | Formal contracts have been signed with the five German Public Transport Authorities in North Rhine-Westphalia and adjacent regions. These contracts implement the structural changes to the RME and RRX contracts. | ||
Record (LON:REC) (£108m | SR90) | AUM +14%. Revenue down 4%. Profit after tax down 23% (£30.4m) “reflecting tax rate normalising”. FY27 has started with strong momentum, with focus on maintaining the foundations in Risk Management while continuing the momentum in Absolute Return and Private Markets. | BLACK (AMBER/RED ↓) (Graham) | |
LBG Media (LON:LBG) (£56m | SR65) | Buys 75% of Uncovered, “a UK‑based, Gen-Z native social‑first creative agency”. Initial cash consideration £26.8m. Earnout cash payment up to £7m. Put and call options to acquire the remaining 25% of the company. | ||
Marks Electrical (LON:MRK) (£51m | SR60) | Revenue down 7.5%. Adj. EBITDA £2.5m as previously guided. Current trading is in line with market expectations, but “overall consumer confidence remains weak… we are taking a more cautious outlook for the year ahead on sales growth and gross margin.” | BLACK? | |
Amigo Resources (LON:AMGO) (£36m | SR81) | Processing Licence No. PCL 0356/2026 was granted in respect of the Kabete Project. Approximately 1.1 kilograms of gold recovered during initial commissioning activities. Preliminary interpretation indicates encouraging correlation between micro-seismic results and previously identified geochemical target areas. | ||
Atome (LON:ATOM) (£32m | SR2) | ATOME notes the recent share price movement and confirms that discussions continue to progress with the Government of Paraguay and with ANDE, Paraguay's state-owned electricity supplier. | ||
Emmerson (LON:EML) (£27m | SR11) | The UK Intellectual Property Office has recently confirmed that Emmerson Plc's patent application titled Processing of Evaporite Minerals (Application No. 2315003.0) has been granted patent status. This patent provides IP protection for the core KMP process and its optimised derivative products. EML’s subsidiaries continue to seek compensation ($1.215bn) from Morocco. | ||
Caffyns (LON:CFYN) (£11m | SR36) | Revenue down 2%. New car deliveries down 11%. Used car sales up 4%. Underlying loss before tax £1.5m. “We faced significant trading headwinds during the financial year ended 31 March 2026 and have taken a number of actions to increase order take and reduce costs. These actions are delivering improvement." |
Graham's Section
PPHE Hotel (LON:PPH)
Down 20% at £16.10 (£674m) - Update on Strategic Review & Formal Sale Process - Graham - TAKEOVER (GREEN)
Very dramatic news here as it transpires that hotel group PPHE’s top shareholder Euro Plaza, owning 33%, is opposed to the planned takeover by Fattal Hotels.
Euro Plaza is the vehicle owned by PPHE’s founder Eli Papouchado.
Mr. Papouchado and his fellow shareholder, co-CEO Boris Ivesha (who owns 11%) were the ones who put PPHE into play last November, with the announcement that they were interested in monetising their stakes.
This kicked off a Formal Sale Process which led to a takeover offer from the Israel hotel group, Fattal Hotels, at £22 per share.
Fattal are also existing shareholders in PPHE, owning 4%.
The £22 offer was a nearly 50% premium to the PPHE share price last November, when this process began (c. £15). But it was also a 20% discount to PPHE’s official net asset value (£27.40).
The PPHE Board were happy to recommend a takeover at this price, and said that they believed it represented fair value. But they have now learned that Euro Plaza (i.e. Mr. Papouchado) does not consent to it.
How things stand currently:
Fattal is not going to proceed, given Euro Plaza’s opposition.
The £22 offer therefore cannot be delivered in its current form.
PPHE has received “an indicative proposal from another interested party”.
No further details are provided on this “indicative proposal”, other than “this interest is at a very preliminary stage and is currently being assessed.”
Graham’s view
Although the PPHE share price has been badly hurt by today’s news, I don't think that it should negatively affect our view of what this company is ultimately worth.
After all, Mr. Papouchado could have simply accepted £22 per share. He evidently believes that it is worth more.
Also, the new “indicative proposal” must be at a higher level than £22, or else why would the Board even bother to assess it?
I’m therefore going to stand over the claim that although PPHE is not worth full NAV, it is worth significantly more than the market has been giving it credit for. The market has often put it at a 50% discount to NAV, while an informed buyer (Fattal) were willing to pay a 20% discount..
At today's share price, it has given back the majority of the gains it made since last November:
Personally, I’m therefore GREEN on this for value. Although it remains entirely unclear as to whether or not a takeover is going to be possible in the foreseeable future, as that depends on the view of the key shareholder. Given that he’s the co-founder of the business and still owns one third of it, he has every right to influence the outcome here.
Record (LON:REC)
Down 11% to 48.4p (£96m) - Annual Financial Report - Graham - BLACK (AMBER/RED ↓)
The market is not too impressed with the results from this FX specialist:
AUM +14%, boosted by exchange rates and other market movements.
Revenue down 4% (£40.1m), “due to mandate re-compositions and lower performance fees”.
Profit after tax down 23% (£7m), “reflecting tax rate normalising following prior year deferred tax credits.”
The final dividend is 1.45p. It’s not mentioned but this is a significant step-down from last year’s final dividend of 2.5p. And I don’t think the market was expecting it. So this is a surprise cut to the dividend.
Estimates: thanks to Panmure Liberum for publishing on Record today.
Their note confirms that the cut to dividend was a surprise move.
Other points of interest:
2026 earnings per share of 3.9p are below the 4.3p forecast
2027 EPS forecast gets cut from 5.1p to 4p
2028 EPS forecast gets cut from 5.4p to 4.8p
So let’s make no mistake: this is a pretty serious profit warning.
Using the new EPS forecast for FY27 and the latest share price, the shares are trading at 12x earnings.
At least the balance sheet remains strong and flexible with nearly £28m of net assets, which are almost fully tangible and highly liquid.
Outlook: focuses on the future and the need for a strong balance sheet to pursue their growth strategies.
"Record is a business in purposeful evolution… Private Markets strategies, in particular, offer the potential for longer-term, higher-margin and more scalable revenues as they mature. This is where our priorities are focused. These growth opportunities require continued balance sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation to support their full potential.”
Graham’s view
I’ve always had a great deal of respect for Record as an institution. But the difficulty with the investment thesis has been the lack of growth, and that remains the main issue today.
But they continue to look for new opportunities. The Private Markets strategies are described like this:
Private Markets includes strategies across areas such as Emerging Markets, Infrastructure Equity, Private Credit and Private Debt, designed in close partnership with our institutional clients… Private Markets strategies [...] involve a combination of longer lock-up periods, higher margins, or more predictable fee profiles, thereby improving earnings visibility over time. These solutions now contribute 28% of our revenue base…
Although the development of these Private Markets products has required patience and will be coupled with uneven revenue recognition in the early stages, this mix enhances the resilience and sustainability of our earnings base, while remaining aligned with our clients' long-term objectives.
Despite my fondness for the company, I’m going to turn AMBER/RED on it today, as today’s profit warning follows another one last November.
For what it’s worth, I do think that Record will continue to find success with its new strategies. But it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that these efforts are to some extent merely replacing older revenue streams that are drying up. If the shares were obviously cheap then I could be more positive, but I don’t think that’s the case right now.
The 3-year chart tells a story of gradual decline:
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