As Sir L said yesterday on the analyst thread, we should have a more general thread, so here it is.
With Oilbarrel and the IMS today, it should get active quickly.
SirL - Given the failure by all parties including to the management of Aminex to see the expansion of the Songas plant take place earlier and thus in the case of Aminex see its gas get to market timeously which will now not occur until 2012, it would have been wise to agree a new Nyuni PSA with the Tanzanian authorities. That would give the time to use resources to develop proven reserves at SC -possibly another way of expressing your argument. In turn not only might the company go into P/L plus but there might be some reserves to fund Tanzanian activities and/or sensibly improve the sp to be able to raise capital at a better price.
That in turn would give a return to shareholders who might wish to vacate which has been missing for many a year. Also Key seem to lack the funds to cover their share of Nyuni -2 so that unless some kind of deft deal is done to cover both the Aminex cost of the Nyuni-2 drill and assist or relieve Key, the Nyuni-2 drill may have to be delayed in any event.
I am not sure that your $24m pa gross and 18mmboe for SC are accurate - if anything perhaps too optimistic; but your theory appears to be based on the premise of returning value to shareholders.I see the logic. It may/will however well fall on deaf ears.
I still prefer the possibilty of a take out by a third party. The value is there but it needs to be extracted by those with the capital and expertise to do so. It might be worth up to 25 pence but 15-17 pence might suit many and give a good return to the members of the board that hold stock in the company.
At least the North Korean concept has been abandoned or put on hold - fruitless and costly for shareholders.
.JPG)
