Archived articleThis is an archived article from 2010 - please note that any content within the article may be out of date.
AUD/USD: Does the rolling top formation suggest it's trending down?
The daily chart for AUD/USD reveals a key test of support coming up after a clear failure by the Australian currency to break back above the cloud formation. We could see another recovery from a break of the "neckline" as was seen in late December, but the overarching rolling top formation is starting to suggest that the intermediate term trend for this key carry trade currency is down.
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3 comments
I think there's a more interesting question here - if the AUD can't hold onto its recent gains against the US dollar anybody who's invested in the generality of commodities this year is looking at fairly meagre gains unless they get lucky with the drillbit with specific companies - whether oil or mining .
Of course its a game of 2 halves [as they say] - you'd expect the OZ dollar to be strengthened by the bull story from China and the US dollar by generalised equities risk aversion -seen a bit of that today.
On the other hand I guess the latter case could be undermined by a retreat from the dollar in fundamental terms -you'd think sometimes (especially from the gold bulls) that everybody and his dog thinks the US dollar is a basically flawed currency whch is going to get trashed eventually .
Personally I'm a AUD bull .
I think parity with the $ is inevitable in 12/18 months.Interest rates and debt are the issues which will swing it IMV.
Perhaps....
the past is no guide to the future.......