Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 17th July 2026) - BRBY, ALU, SNWS, EYE, NTBR

It's been a long time since I shorted anything. Buying a few out-of-the-money Tesla puts several years ago was the last time that I couldn't resist having a flutter on the collapse of something (it didn't work out).

But I must admit that when SpaceX IPO'd, I did spend one or two evenings looking at the option chain and checking how much it would cost to bet against the thing (spoiler: it was horribly expensive - the more volatile a stock is, the more expensive it is to buy options on it).

My failure to bet against it is already causing me to experience FOMO as I read headlines like this:

Short sellers notch $8.7 bln profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

There are remarkable estimates of short interest being bandied about, such as "almost half of SpaceX's tradable shares, about 49% ‌of ⁠the free float".

CNBC reports a different estimate, but one that is still very high:

"About 185 million SpaceX shares are now sold short, representing roughly 29% of the company’s publicly tradable float and about $25 billion in bearish wagers"

Part of the difficulty is that SpaceX free float itself is very low, at less than 5% of outstanding shares. The short interest has to be measured against an estimate of the shares that can be publicly traded outside of various lockup agreements.

What I find interesting is that the sources quoted by both Reuters and CNBC say that shorting is being driven primarily by speculators, not by people hedging their long positions.

I find that a little hard to believe, although legally it makes sense: all of those SpaceX investors who are subject to lockup agreements are not supposed to be selling the stock short, in order to lock in their enormous profits. It must be very tempting for them to do so.

Looking ahead, huge numbers of SpaceX shares will see their lockup agrements expire this year. I think I'll be scanning this option chain on a regular basis.

Overnight market movements:

• The FTSE is down 0.3% at 10,525

• S&P 500 is down 0.8% at 7,475

• Brent crude (September) is down 0.6% at $85.50/bbl

• Gold is up 0.4% at $3,990/oz

• Bitcoin is down 1.8% at $63,000

---

Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.

---

Companies Reporting

---

Backlog

Northern Bear (LON:NTBR)

110p (£15m) - Preliminary Results - Graham - GREEN =

This group of building services companies has attracted a following among the nano-cap value investors, for obvious reasons:

The shares have already doubled since early 2025:

FY March 2026 results were posted yesterday:

• Revenue +10.2% to £86.1m

• Operating profit of £5.1m (2025: £3.4m)

• Adjusted operating profit £3.8m (2025: £3.8m)

£3.8m is a more realistic profit figure than £5.1m. Here’s the explanation for the difference between operating profit and adjusted operating profit:

The “non-recurring profit” relates to some non-recurring contracts which the company has helpfully designated as such, so that we don’t expect them to occur again in FY27.

Net cash is £6.2m, which at this market cap is a significant number. But don’t take it for granted: it’s volatile. Management have acknowledged that they “saw strong advanced payments from our customers prior to 31 March 2026, particularly from our public sector clients”, and that this boosted the cash figure.

They also say, very transparently:

As we have emphasised in previous years' results, our net cash (or net bank debt) position represents a snapshot at a particular point in time and can move by up to £1.5 million in a matter of days given the nature, size and variety of contracts we undertake and the related working capital balances.

The lowest cash position during FY26 was £0.6 million net cash, the highest was £6.2m net cash and the average was £3.3m net cash.

If only every company was so transparent!

Dividend: it’s nice to see such a small company paying a dividend. There is a 5p special dividend on top of the 2.5p ordinary.

Outlook

Our forward order book remains robust and we continue to see a pipeline of opportunities across the Group, supported by the investments we have made in our businesses. While the operating environment remains challenging, we believe these investments have strengthened our market position and provide a solid platform for future growth…

Conclusion:

Given the political changes on a local and national basis, we are experiencing some delay in the decision-making process within both the public and private sectors.

We have made a stable start in FY27 and are trading in line with management expectations.

Graham’s view

I was GREEN on this last November at a market cap of £18m and a share price of 124p.

While I generally shy away from being too positive on companies with such small market caps (due to delisting risk), this is a case where I’m happy to make an exception.

It’s profitable, has a net cash position, pays a dividend, and is more transparent to investors than it needs to be or is typical for a company of its size.

Against that, this stock certainly should be cheap, given the sector. But it is. Adjusted earnings per share are 22p, against a share price of 110p, for a trailing PE 5x. I think this is still worthy of a positive view from us.

Stockopedia views it as Contrarian, which makes sense. The ValueRank is a tempting 96:

---

Graham's Section

Burberry (LON:BRBY)

Down 4% at £10.71 (£3.86bn) - First Quarter Trading Update - Graham - AMBER =

(At the time of writing, Graham has a long position in BRBY.)

We’ve been neutral on this turnaround story, as the market cap has seemed to already price in the company’s expected financial improvements:

Looking forward to FY March 2028, for example, the P/E multiple is still quite strong at 19x (based on a net income forecast of £200m and EPS of 55.9p).

During a prior era of success, Burberry generated net income of c. £400m, but that sort of result is not expected in the near future.

Fortunately, the direction of travel remains positive. Today’s Q1 update:

• Retail revenue +4% at constant exchange rates

• Comparable retail sales +5%

There’s a wide disparity between geographies. With conflict in the Middle East, EMEIA (Europe, Middle East, India and Africa) comparable sales fell 3%. Americas, by contrast, are up 12% and Greater China is up 9%.

Within the operational highlights, these two points stand out to me (emphasis added):

Product and pricing strategy is working, delivering value for money in a luxury context across each category and good/better/best price tiers

Continued customer growth, led by Gen-Z up double-digit

“Value for money in a luxury context” is an important reference to positioning - the need to maintain luxury profit margins while still remaining within reach of the target customer base.

The reference to Gen-Z is also important - customers born between 1997 and 2012, who are still in their 20s. Double digit growth in that cohort means the company is staying relevant for the next generation of luxury shoppers.

Outlook:

As we look ahead, we are encouraged by the progress of Burberry Forward and will continue to build on it to drive performance and deliver sustainable long-term value.

In the full year we expect to make further progress on our financial ambitions, including delivering revenue growth and margin expansion, in line with expectations. We remain mindful of the uncertain geopolitical and macro-economic environment and its potential impact on consumer confidence.

Graham’s view

The trading update is nothing special - and the share price reaction reflects that. The reference to the “uncertain geopolitical and macro-economic environment and its potential impact on consumer confidence” is the type of remark that tempers expectations.

Personally, as a long-standing (long-suffering?) shareholder, I plan to continue holding this one. The forecasts out to FY29 suggest that net profits will continue to grow and exceed £250m by FY March 2029. FY29 sounds very far away, but that financial year starts only about 20 months from now.

Granted that much can go wrong between now and then, and there will inevitably be unwanted macro events during this timeframe.

But in general, when Burberry is performing well, I expect it to enjoy a P/E multiple in the region of 20x. So I’m hoping for a market cap of c. £5bn on profits of £250m+, or a share price in a couple of years about 30% higher than the current level, and with scope for profits to continue recovering towards historic levels.

And with the company profitable, that will also allow management some pleasant decisions on how to reinvest in the business over the next few years.

There’s no guarantee that any of this will happen, but I think the smoke signs are positive with positive comparable store sales and encouraging operational highlights.

The StockRanks are not convinced:

While I’m still positive on the long-term outlook here, our colour rating is based on a shorter-term outlook. With the recovery still needing a few years to play out, and with plenty of short-term uncertainties, I’ll leave us on AMBER for now.

---

Alumasc (LON:ALU)

Down 6.5% at 215p (£78m) - Full Year Trading Update & Suspension of CEO & Changes in Leadership - Graham - BLACK (due to suspension of CEO) (RED ↓)

Let’s get straight into the shocking piece of news here (emphasis added):

Alumasc (ALU.L), the premium sustainable building products, systems and solutions Group announces that CEO, Pamela Bingham, has been suspended by the Board pending an investigation into matters relating to her professional conduct. The Company is undertaking a full investigation, supported by its professional advisors.

The non-Exec Chair becomes Exec Chair “temporarily”, supported by Division MDs and the CFO.

This is a short RNS, concluding:

As set out in the trading update provided this morning, the Group continues to deliver a very resilient performance amidst a challenging market backdrop, and enters the new financial year with a significantly expanded order book. The Company will make further updates to shareholders in due course.

It’s important not to jump to conclusions, but it’s clearly a worrying moment for Alumasc shareholders.

Those worries are partly alleviated by an ok trading update, which says that performance is “broadly in line with the expectations set at the Q3 trading update”.

Full-year revenues for FY June 2026 have fallen from £113m to £107, and underlying PBT has fallen from £14m to £10m.

Net debt is modest at £7m, with a low leverage multiple of 0.5x.

Some colour is provided on each division - Water Management, Building Envelope, Housebuilding Products. Of these, the Water Management division has struggled the most in FY26:

The Water Management division has been particularly affected by adverse market conditions, and faced a tough prior year comparator that included significant revenues from its contract at CLK airport in Hong Kong. Excluding sales to the CLK project, divisional revenue was modestly behind the prior year, with lower UK revenues partially offset by an increase in overseas volumes.

Graham’s view

The good news is that regardless of the circumstances surrounding the suspension of the CEO, there doesn’t appear to be any particular impact on company performance. We already knew that the company was not doing all that well against prior expected performance.

In cases of possible misconduct, I think what shareholders probably care most about is whether they’ve been misled re: company performance. As a shareholder, you can financially survive a wide variety of executive transgressions, but you can’t necessarily survive that one. You don’t want to wake up one day and learn that you own a Patisserie Valerie.

But there doesn’t seem to be any evidence of that here, at least not yet. Performance is “broadly in line” with downgraded expectations.

I’m still going to mark this story “BLACK” as the suspension of a CEO is at best a serious distraction. The best-case scenario is that employees and senior management (and possibly customers and suppliers) are distracted, until it’s resolved.

A more typical outcome is that there’s an expensive and unexpected change in senior management.

We were already AMBER/RED on Alumasc after an April profit warning. I am going RED on this building products supplier today, due to the accumulation of poor news. Today's update  also leaves a lingering uncertainty over what the investigation might find.

This is one Contrarian stock that I’m not interested to bet on:

---

Smiths News (LON:SNWS)

Up 3% at 69p (£171m) - National Contract Awards - Frontline and Seymour - Graham - GREEN =

More good news from Smiths News. It already made two similar announcements to this one, and now we have another.

It has secured new long-term contracts with Frontline (“the UK's largest magazine distributor”), and Seymour, (“part of the Frontline Group and the UK's largest independent magazine distributor”).

I’m slightly confused about the distinction between these two companies, or whether there is any distinction. Checking their respective websites, I am going to treat them as the same entity, as I don't think there is any real distinction to be made.

Some details:

The agreements with Frontline and Seymour (the "Contracts") include an expansion of the distribution territories in which the Company is appointed as the exclusive national wholesale distributor for Frontline and Seymour titles across all of Great Britain (effective from April 2030) and an extension in the contract term of the Company's appointment through to April 2037.

This is similar to the prior announcements from Smiths News. Those ones related to News UK and Associated Newspapers.

There's also some great news on the revenue uplift and the market share that’s involved:

The Contracts together are expected to represent an incremental uplift in Smiths News' revenue of c.£105m per annum across the expanded territories of Great Britain from April 2030. Combined, the Frontline and Seymour portfolios account for over 60% of the UK magazine market.

That’s an enormous chunk of market share and the revenue uplift involved is material. Smiths News revenues are running at around £1bn annually.

Graham’s view

The revenue uplift from all of the contract announcements made here so far are set to generate a collective revenue uplift for Smiths News of over £300m, or 30% on the existing revenue base, when they go into force.

It won’t be free: the company is going to have to spend big on expanding its distribution network, and it hasn’t given us guidance yet on how much that is going to cost.

It's also possible that some contracts may be lost. But there is a qualitative difference between the new contracts and any old contracts that might be lost: the new contracts are on a truly national basis, which Smiths News hasn't achieved before.

Far from being a cigar butt stock that is on its way to extinction, these announcements make the company seem like a growth business with some exciting capex opportunities.

And yet it’s only trading at around 7x earnings:

Deaf to all of arguments about the inevitable decline of newspapers and magazines, the StockRank is 98.

I was GREEN on this before, and today’s announcement only cements my stance.