Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 10 Feb 2025) - LIFS, SYME, FTC, PRV, BP., LIKE, ZIN, ENSI

10th Feb by Graham Neary

47 comments 5862 reads

Good morning! Let's see what's in store for us today.

11:30: wrapping this up here, thanks everyone! Another clean sweep!

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
BP (LON:BP.) (£69bn)	None	Noted activist investor Elliott Management has built a stake in BP, according to press reports.	AMBER/GREEN (Roland) BP shares rose by 8% this morning on news of Elliott’s interest. The US investor reportedly believes BP is undervalued. I am inclined to agree and highlight the stock’s discount to peers.
Porvair (LON:PRV) (£316m)	Final Results	Revenue +9% to £192.6m, op profit +8% to £22.8m. Trading mixed, 2025 outlook optimistic.	AMBER/GREEN (Graham) Not too much has changed since my last review. Underlying sales growth is now positive and a new CEO will take charge in 2025. A nice company, valuation somewhat full.
Filtronic (LON:FTC) (£203m)	Further contract win with SpaceX	£16.8m contract for FY25 and FY26. Both years now expected to exceed current market exps.	AMBER (Roland) This appears to be a relatively modest upgrade to existing forecasts. While I admire progress here, I continue to think the share price is largely up with events.
Likewise (LON:LIKE) (£48m)	TU & Acquisition of Logistics Centre	Positive start to 2025, revenue +8.4%. £1.2m acquisition near Plymouth completes UK coverage.	AMBER (Roland) Positive trading and the completion of its logistics network position this flooring distributor for growth. Further progress is already priced in though, in my view.
EnSilica (LON:ENSI) (£47m)	Interim Results	“Solid” H1? Rev fell slightly (£9.3m) and negative EBITDA (£0.2m). H2 weighting expected	AMBER/RED (Graham) I'm not RED on this because I presume that ENSI's customers would not be awarding contracts and funding to a supplier that was in danger of going bust.
Zinc Media (LON:ZIN) (£15m)	TU	Rev below exps, but adj. EBITDA +50% to £1.5m, in line. Excellent momentum into the new year.	AMBER/RED (Graham) Taking a more lenient view on this as it does not seem to be distressed currently, but the net cash balance is thin and the long-term financial track record is terrible.
LifeSafe Holdings (LON:LIFS) (£3.5m)	Business Outlook	The fire safety tech business is hoping for an €800k order in “coming months” and £800k contract over next two years. But no certainty of either yet.	RED (Roland) [no section below]. Shares down 90% since 2022 float. Appears subscale and loss-making. Some hope of a transformative deal but looks speculative…

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grumpy5

10th Feb

Having met the management at a Mello, they are very sensible, and therefore want to under-promise and over-deliver.

eParo

FTSE 100 hits another high. The MSM are all over it! (Not)

rhomboid1

Interesting post…but I think you may have been misinformed re vermiculite ..the principal competitor is AVD from Goodwin (LON:GDWN) …I hold btw…which is completely benign and industry standard certified for fighting Lithium Ion fires https://www.avdfire.com/what-i...

I’d be interested to know what certification Lifesafe products have for a comparison

I’d say the RNS is more likely plumping the cushions for one final fund raise to avert collapse

Bouden54

As Roland points out, BP does look cheaper based on CAPE (i.e average earnings over the past 10y ) - earnings are quite volatile on a year-to-year basis and tend to mean revert over time so CAPE is arguably a better measure than standard PE ratios.

carmensfella

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JSchoffer

Thanks for the write up on BP (LON:BP.) The team have produced some great research articles recently on stocko analysing performance after events such as 'ahead of expectations' and 'director dealings'- I would be keen to see something similar on activist involvement and whether that precedes outperformance.

Lolarose

Agree with you Planetx. I have been a holder for many years since it was 8p.I too read many things, I only use Stocko and other writers as a guide and as you said DYOR. I sometimes find what some of them say about stocks goes completely the opposite way. Glad I went with my own gut instincts :)

I totally agree with you PlanetX regarding Filtronic (LON:FTC. I have been a holder for many years since it was 12p drifting to 8p but followed my gut instinct rather than brokers. I too only use Stocko writers and other analyst as guides. Best policy is DYOR I find that a lot of the time the shares go completely opposite to what they predict.

Rusty2

I was looking the Stockopedia value as well. Does CAPE take into account the debt? Management has not been good either in the past, probably why the quality score is low.

I see Pan African Resources (LON:PAF) put out a trading update today, around 9am. Does not look very good to me but it is not very clear, shares are down 9%.

SontleyM

Likely a bit of a profit taking today on a day where gold miners did stonkingly well. I guess the grass was greener on this Monday

Pan African Resources (LON:PAF) Looks way below the forecasts, so much about rates of exchange. Gold sold was18% down.

I don't understand this: "The opportunity cost associated with the synthetic forward transaction of US$17.4 million (2023: US$1.7 million)."

Rare Bird

Liking against Filtronic (LON:FTC) there are certain similarities with Novacyt SA (LON:NCYT) , the diagnostics company which went from nanocap to borderline midcap on the basis of manufacturing the best Covid diagnostic kit on the market. It had a mountain of cash and the prospect of expanding into all manner of neighbouring fields of medical endeavour. It then fell out with it main client, the DHSC, and sank without trace. I still hold my stake which is currently showing a 93% loss (having once been some 250% up) partly as a reminder to be wary of investing in companies like Filtronic (LON:FTC).

Cancun

I haven't looked into this at all Rusty, nor do I know the company, but would it be an increased cost ( less profit ) due to more aggressive gold price movements upwards in 2024 compared to 2023 ... i.e. the downside gold price hedges lost more money as the gold price moved up more aggressively... causing bigger accounting entry losses ... ?

Nanotrader09

Excellent debate this. Thanks everyone for their comments on Filtronic (LON:FTC)

Wimbledonsprinter

11th Feb

Thanks. Your link to the properties of AVD is very helpful.

The Hierarchy

12th Feb

Interesting to note your views on ENSI, which I think are basically fair enough.

I'd disagree though on your view that they have a mountain to climb on the full year revenue numbers.

As, if you look at the last year split it was heavily weighted to the second half and this time round they have the Siemens chips being supplied now coming through. They also have the big Italian contract contributing, so I don't see those revenues as being difficult to hit.

With four chips now in production and twelve more following through in the 2-3 year design phase, then there looks like some real growth prospects on offer if they can deliver over the next 12-18 months.

Certainly it looks like it could do with a decent raise, but I suspect that they have enough visibility from these large contracts that have been sealed and as you point out, I doubt that these big customers would entertain them if they were likely to go out of business, given the nature of what ENSI is providing.

If they announce further contract wins in the coming months as I expect, then this could well prove to be a big winner. Highly speculative of course and it could do with a much strengthened balance sheet.

Engage Investor

13th Feb

In case you missed it, here is Zinc Media CEO Mark Browning discussing the Group’s current progress and prospects on the Engage Investor platform - https://www.engageinvestor.com/event/4d371385476c

21st Feb

Zenova (LON:ZED) did you take part in today’s £250k raise?

22nd Feb

Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 10 Feb 2025) - LIFS, SYME, FTC, PRV, BP., LIKE, ZIN, ENSI

Companies Reporting

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Graham Neary

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