Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 12 May 2025) - US-China Agreement, SNX, IGG, VLG, CWK, VCT, OPT, LIKE, TAND

Mon 6:02am by Graham Neary

52 comments 5355 reads

Good morning!

Welcome back to another week. Today's Agenda is complete.

2pm: let's wrap it up there, thank you!

US-China Trade Talks & Agreement

When I wrote The Week Ahead last week, I mentioned that there would be "ice-breaker" talks between the United States and China in Switzerland over the weekend.

I did not expect - and I don't think anybody else anticipated it - that the two countries would almost immediately agree to reduce their tariffs by anything like this:

Source: BBC

For 90 days, starting on Wednesday, the US tariff on China is reduced to 30%, and the Chinese tariff on the United States is reduced to 10%.

These are still much higher than they were a few months ago. But I would expect the majority of trade to resume at these rates.

The two countries "will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations". Perhaps this may lead to further progress and a normalisation of tariffs back to where they were before this episode began?

As I've been saying from the start, I think Trump's main objective is to be able to point to concessions he achieves from other countries. If he gets that, I think he's quite happy to drop tariffs.

The FTSE hasn't moved much today (+0.4%) but the S&P is set to open up nearly 3%.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) (£73bn)	Definitive Agreement for Winu Project joint venture	Press Release, not an RNS. Sumitomo Metal Mining will pay up to $430m for 30% JV equity share.
IG group (LON:IGG) (£3.8bn)	Update on trading and balance sheet management	Ahead. FY25 revenue & adj PBT now expected to “meet or slightly exceed” top end of consensus.	GREEN (Graham holds) With accounting changes, a larger credit facility and a bond issuance, IG are going to have a great deal of flexibility when it comes to M&A, investment in their existing business and share buybacks. I remain a happy shareholder but will monitor their next moves carefully.
Cranswick (LON:CWK) (£2.9bn)	Daily Mail abuse claims	SP down 8% Daily Mail article claims “horrific abuse” at one of Cranswick’s farms.	RED (Megan) I’d be inclined to steer clear of this one until it is clear that all of the rest of Cranswick’s farms are operating free of suspicion.

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Pimlico on Thames

Mon 11:40am

Warehouse Reit (LON:WHR) significant drop (10%) on valuation issues raised by Blackstone in PUSU extension of offer to 30 May

Camtab

Mon 11:47am

Perfect a US President providing inside information! The only thing a sound investor needs to understand is he tells fibs to suit his own agenda. So the drive for risk today is absurd. You cannot invest in risk if you can't have some confidence on the outcome. Less sophisticated societies understood you don't build your house on sand and a leaders character is more important than his policies (because they might not be his policies.)

Bouden54

Rather unnsual and makes you wonder if they uncovered some things in due diligence and now want out - tempted to buy some on the dip but will probably watch on sidelines for moment.

yiannos1

Mon 11:49am

Synthomer (LON:SYNT)

Yes I have

Can you tell -:)

All the best

boringchess

Mon 12:00pm

"Previously, Blackstone, acting on behalf of its affiliated investment funds, had proposed a final indicative, non-binding offer of 115 pence per share for Warehouse REIT, adjusted for the interim dividend already paid. However, after due diligence, Blackstone raised concerns about the valuation of a key development asset, which has led to ongoing discussions between the parties.

Warehouse REIT, which had initially indicated its willingness to recommend Blackstone’s offer to its shareholders, is now working with its financial advisers and an independent valuer to address the valuation issues raised by Blackstone."

Classic last minute chipping the price situation sounds like. Probably they'll still agree a deal on a slightly lower valuation.

Given the price is no longer the price as it were, I will not be taking a position again. Who knows what they'll end up agreeing, or whether they'll fall out altogether. Could sink a lot further if they pull out of the deal (in which case personally I would be happy to take up a long term position again at that point).

rmillaree

Mon 12:40pm

Card Factory (LON:CARD)

I don't think that's fair to say I'm speaking nonsense

happy to disagree with yourself - i quoted linked text here that confirmed Paul S had downgraded Card Factory per the last update he formally did here last year - how on earth does him downgrading the stock and flagging up uncertainty tally with your comment below

Just thought I would mention it as I only ever hear the bull case for Card Factory (LON:CARD) from Paul Scott

imho facts are your comments are at best misplaced/misleading - or worse than that malicious nonsense. Hopefully others can see that when Paul has commented he has commented on pluses and minuses ref this copmpany - whether he is positive or not.

i'm just throwing out an alternative view to a highly popular, highly promoted small cap that everyone seems to think is undervalued.

We all respect alternate viewpoints - your post is useful and valid commentary ref margins other than the assertion Paul has not flagged up bear point issues ref this company previously when he mostly certainly has done so - thats all i am trying to correct here - your text quoted above leaves little to the imagination in that regard and imho is plain outright wrong factuially speakaing imho.

ref podcast thing i havent seen it or been provided link - so i cant comment on that text - but prior commentary imho speaks for itself

dscollard

Mon 12:55pm

The FTSE 100 hasn't moved much as it's a rotation out of the more defensive names including gold as risk is firmly back on - mid caps and small caps have continued to move north: AIM closed above its 200 day moving average on Friday - first time in almost 7 months

meanwhile almost half of the names rallying today have short interest - shorts have continued to rise even as UK indices staged a V shaped recovery . Does suggest hedgies may be offside and highlights how hated this rally is - also worth noting that some of the best performers over the past few week have been some of the most hated names and sectors. Also a bullish sign . I post this kind of stuff on X - here

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littledavesab

Monty Carlo - Thats a really well balanced response, thank you

djlcollinge

Mon 1:09pm

Two issues for Cranswick. Seemingly horrendous farming practices and directors who seem more interested in their remuneration than the company. A sobering reminder of what american factory farming would look like.

Richard P

Mon 1:31pm

Worth noting that Warehouse Reit (LON:WHR) is now trading at 95 pence versus a 130 pence NAV... now a lot cheaper than many other listed REIT's not in a takeover situation... Good risk reward, IMO

The Phoenix

Mon 2:03pm

He also sells Tesla's if your interested in buying one, and overvalued worthless meme coins

Mon 2:36pm

A NAV that is now under question to the point that a 115pence offer was no longer considered realistic by an acquirer for whom it should be a no brainer to buy and sell it in parts if the NAV is actually even close to fair though...

But maybe you're right, if you are happy to buy and hold for the (potentially) long term its still a good risk/reward

Revs8

Mon 2:47pm

The chart would suggest some profit taking here. I still feel this is all part of a long term bottom inverse H&S but I did sell early today. I may buy back in if inverse H&S starts to materialise.

ACounsell

Mon 3:01pm

Absolutely right! Trump is manipulating the market. Caused it to crash with his 'Liberation Day' and probably bought a huge amount of stock (or his lackeys did) knowing full well that when he backed down on tariffs the markets would rocket and he would make a fortune. This will no doubt be discovered one day and the 'leader of the free world' will be found out for the insider trading he has surely been orchestrating.

Patrickmylnetrade

Mon 4:00pm

i highly doubt it, who's going to police him? He's broken more laws that my deceased grandmother and managed to wriggle out of every situation

Silver Moon

Mon 4:04pm

Pay peanuts and you get monkeys, here and now, in the UK.

ken mitchell

Mon 4:28pm

Agree that there’s no chance of proving Trump manipulates the markets, though it was obvious that was also his game when he was last President.

Mon 9:10pm

Just sold mine.

Mon 9:12pm

And the Supreme Court have said that he cannot be held liable for any crime he commits whilst the President. Genius.

WimborneMiser

Mon 9:27pm

There was nothing malicious , misplaced or misleading in Burnt Onions’ post above, just reporting facts, which clearly you don’t like.

Burnt Onions correctly pointed out that in the small caps podcast with Paul Hill last week, Paul Scott was once again saying that Card is undervalued and couldn’t understand why it’s so cheap, especially after the recent results. Maybe the cost pressures has left investors a little wary?

PS was very positive about it to say the least and his valuation was minimum £1.50. He owns but top-sliced before the results.There was a similar positive comment the previous week as well.

I personally don’t hold, good dividend, but the margins and sector, it’s not my thing.

Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 12 May 2025) - US-China Agreement, SNX, IGG, VLG, CWK, VCT, OPT, LIKE, TAND

US-China Trade Talks & Agreement

Companies Reporting

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Graham Neary

52 comments

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