Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 13th July 2026) - MEGP, BBSN/SYS1, CNC, PAGE, EGT, PLUS, ONT

There has been little change over the weekend in terms of the Iran situation: more tit-for-tat attacks with the US, and disagreements over whether or not the Strait of Hormuz is currently open.

Oil continues to creep higher and is now over $79, having fallen towards $70 when optimism over the ceasefire and the peace negotiations was highest.

In sport, Wednesday evening will see England vs. Argentina, with England taking on Lionel Messi for the first time. That match is at the respectable time of 8pm (as is the World Cup final on Sunday night).

Overnight market movements:

• The FTSE is down 0.2% at 10,470

• S&P 500 is down 0.6% at 7,530

• Brent crude (September) is unchanged at $79.35/bbl

• Gold is down 1.7% at $4,050/oz

• Bitcoin is down 2.1% at $62,850

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Wrapping it up there for today, thanks all. Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.

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Companies Reporting

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Graham's Section

System1 (LON:SYS1)

Up 0.4% at 306.2p (£39m) - Graham - TAKEOVER (AMBER/GREEN =)

RNS from Brave Bison (LON:BBSN): Possible Offer for System1 Group Plc

RNS from System1 (LON:SYS1): Response to announcement by Brave Bison Group plc

In my call with the CEO and CFO of System1 last week, I mentioned the interesting situation with Brave Bison to them, while acknowledging that they wouldn’t be able to tell me anything that wasn’t already in the public domain. And they didn’t tell me anything - but now we learn that there was indeed a lot going on behind the scenes!

On Saturday, The Times scooped that Brave Bison was preparing a bid for System1 (the 72% of it that they don’t already own).

Brave Bison confirms that “collaborative discussions have been underway between the boards of Brave Bison and System1 Group plc… regarding a potential combination.”

System1 rejected the initial approach, with an important “but”:

Whilst the board of System1 rejected Brave Bison's original proposal on grounds of value, it has acknowledged in discussions that a combination of the two businesses has a strong underlying industrial logic.

This is a widely-held view: that it would make sense to strip out some of System1’s overhead by combining it with another group. At its current scale, it has struggled to generate the attractive profit margins of which it should be capable.

The Combination would create AIM's challenger marketing data and technology company with pro-forma net revenues of £79 million and Adjusted EBITDA of £14 million on a pro-forma basis. This pro-forma does not include cost savings derived from duplicate board, plc, property and IT costs which have the potential to increase profitability further.

Details of the offer

There was an all-share approach which valued System1 at 297p.

This has been revised to: 68p in cash and 2.7553 new BBSN shares.

To come up with an estimate of total value for this, Brave Bison uses the 20-day VWAP (volume-weighted average) of their share price, which is 94p. This gives a total value of 327p.

However, their closing share price last week was a little lower than this, at 90.5p. If we use that instead, the total value is 317.35p.

At 327p, the premium against SYS1’s share price last week is 7%. At 317.35p, the premium is only 4%.

This is an unimpressive premium, no matter which way you cut it. Which leads us to System1’s response.

They tell us that the initial proposal was received over a month ago, on 8th June, and “represented no premium to the System1 share price at that time”. But they nevertheless engaged with their largest shareholder:

…acknowledging Brave Bison's position as a major shareholder of System1, the Board has engaged constructively and shared certain information with Brave Bison. This has led to a period of dialogue with the intent to help Brave Bison materially improve the terms of its Initial Proposal.

On Friday, System1 learned of the new bid (the “Revised Proposal”), including cash and shares:

[The Board] has considered the Revised Proposal with its advisers and believes it materially undervalues System1. The Board unanimously and unequivocally rejects the Revised Proposal.

The Revised Proposal does not include any notable premium for control of System1.

They note that the premium being offered now is indeed 4%, using Friday’s share prices for the two companies..

Graham’s view

There are a few interesting features around this M&A situation.

Brave Bison, being System1’s largest shareholder, has to be treated respectfully by the System1 board.

On the other hand, making a zero premium takeover offer, or even a 4% premium, isn’t very respectful.

Brave Bison must think that System1 shareholders are really desperate for a takeover, for this to even be entertained. And they may be right to some extent - plenty of System1 shareholders probably do want a takeover to happen. But I’d find it strange if they were willing to accept a negligible premium to their existing share price.

The only case when a zero premium makes sense to me is when you get an all-share merger of equals. In that case, two companies between one and each shareholder group are left with about 50% ownership of the total.

But that’s not the case here. Brave Bison is worth over £100m, while System 1 is worth less than half that. Even if it was an all-share deal (which System1 doesn’t want), System1 shareholders would be left in the minority. Under the revised proposal, System1 would own 19% of the combined group. And so it’s reasonable for them to expect to receive a control premium.

Having said all of this, the industrial logic makes total sense to me. In the words of Brave Bison:

The enlarged group would have a highly desirable revenue mix, with approximately 58% of net revenue derived from high-margin, low marginal cost, scalable platform solutions. Furthermore, revenue would be diversified across UK, EU and US, with over 700 customers, and limited customer concentration risk.

The marketing technology landscape is undergoing rapid and fundamental change, and AI-native capabilities are fast becoming the price of entry in modern markets. Well-resourced competitors are moving quickly, and the businesses best placed to lead are those with the financial firepower, talent platform, and technical infrastructure to invest decisively and at pace.

This takeover should happen - it’s just a question now of whether the two sides can find an acceptable compromise. My feeling is that Brave Bison should be the first to budge.

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Plus500 (LON:PLUS)

Down 16% at £41.50 (£2.88bn) - Half Year 2026 Trading Update - Graham - AMBER/GREEN ↓ [BLACK (profit warning) against H1 expectations, but full-year expectations are unchanged]

Plus500, a global multi-asset fintech group operating proprietary technology-based trading platforms, today announces its trading update for the six-month period ended 30 June 2026.

The market doesn’t like this update, even though it emphasises that FY 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance is reconfirmed.

Key points:

• H1 revenue +12% (Q2 revenue +5%)

• H1 EBITDA +1% (Q2 EBITDA +1%)

CEO comment: highlights recent launches in the US and Canada.

"H1 2026 delivered the strongest Customer Income in five years and the highest revenue in three years, reflecting the quality of our customer base, the power of our proprietary technology, and the growing breadth of our global platforms…

…The Board expects FY 2026 revenue and EBITDA to be in-line with current market expectations, following several upgrades this year."

US: “Plus500 has established itself at the centre of the US prediction markets industry… In February 2026, the Group launched its B2C prediction markets offering and, in June 2026, launched its next-generation offering with CFTC-regulated sports event-based contracts, representing the highest-engagement category in prediction markets.” (website can be found here).

Canada/Japan: Canada gets a new localised OTC platform, while Japan gets an “enhanced multi-asset product offering, tailored for the local market”.

Outlook:

Plus500 enters H2 2026 with strong operational momentum and with a broader, deeper and more competitively differentiated strategic roadmap across both its OTC and non-OTC businesses…

Supported by a robust, debt-free balance sheet, proven best-in-class proprietary technology and a growing pipeline of B2B and B2C opportunities, the Company's Board of Directors is confident in the Group's prospects and expects FY 2026 revenue and EBITDA to be in-line with current market expectations, following multiple upgrades this year.

Estimates: the RNS hopefully provides market expectations for FY 2026: Revenue of $811.5m and EBITDA of $368.1m.

Peel Hunt are quoted on Proactive Investors saying the following (emphasis added):

"Revenue was a 4% beat versus consensus, while EBITDA was 3% below consensus, as Plus500 increased investment in customer acquisition, contributing to 17% growth in new customers, but no change in the FY26 expectations in current consensus."

It’s important to note that it’s perfectly possible for the company to miss H1 expectations while still maintaining full-year forecasts.

Cavendish have said something similar in a note published today: that Plus500’s Q2 revenue beat their expectations, but that EBITDA was below expectations, with higher than expected churn. They say “...we believe that the lack of upgrades given the macro environment and share price performance YTD might be perceived as slightly disappointing.”

Graham’s view

With H1 EBITDA of £187.5m, they’ve already secured 50.9% of the full-year forecast. And bear in mind that the market was expecting a slightly higher number than this: it seems to me that the market was expecting about 52.5% of full-year EBITDA in H1.

The revenue picture is even more interesting. The company has already achieved 57% of full-year revenue expectations.

Given the level of product development and the launches that occurred in H1, and the revenue that was achieved, I do think it’s reasonable to be surprised that there is no upgrade.

However, the company has rebuffed that notion, effectively telling us that we’ve had enough upgrades for now.

The conclusion? That H2 might be very quiet, compared to H1.

That does make some sense, considering the extraordinary drama in H1 as Trump’s war on Iran helped to spike the volatility punch bowl:

Vix Volatility Index. Source: Google.

With Vix now at the lower end of the range, it’s logical that Plus500 might expect a quieter H2.

But it’s also the case that customer acquisition has been a little more expensive than expected, as the company spent big to replace customers who fell away. Revenue grew 12% but EBITDA didn’t, due to this marketing spend:

EBITDA increased by 1% YoY to $187.5m (H1 2025: $185.1m), equating to an EBITDA margin of 41%, reflecting the flexibility of the Group's operating cost base and its ability to invest in growth while maintaining strong profitability. During H1 2026, the Group deliberately increased investment in customer acquisition, driving a 17% increase in New Customers…

There’s nothing wrong with an EBITDA margin of 41%, but it was 45% in H1 last year (and 46% the year before that).

Overall, then, we have a picture of deteriorating (albeit still very high) profitability, and a big drop-off expected in H2.

I’ve been GREEN on this stock for a long time, and I don’t think today’s announcement changes the big picture.

There’s a little disappointment on customer churn and marketing spend, but the company did successfully replace its outgoing customers and achieve very high revenues - and should be easily on track for full-year expectations.

I’m going to put us on AMBER/GREEN today, with my downgrade respecting the market’s disappointment, the lower profit margin, the miss against H1 EBITDA expectations, and the higher customer churn. We also had an unusually high (for PLUS) P/E multiple, going into today’s update:

Long-term, I’m still a believer in this company. So I’ll be keen to get us GREEN on it again at the next reassuring update.

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Roland's Section

ME International (LON:MEGP)

Up 11% at 115p (£432m) - 2026 Interim Results - Roland - AMBER/GREEN ↑

Trading during the first five months of the 2026 financial year was broadly in line with the Board's expectations, although in April the Group experienced a slowdown in vending revenue, principally driven by a significant reduction in photobooth activity in a small number of countries.

Today’s half-year numbers follow a profit warning in June from this instant-service equipment group, which I covered here. Brokers cut earnings forecasts by 12.8% following June’s update:

Markets were evidently fearing further bad news today as ME shares have responded positively to today’s unchanged full-year guidance:

Let’s take a look at today’s results

Half-year results: key points

ME Group’s headline figures for the six months to 30 April 2026 show (real) profits dipping slightly on flat revenue:

• Revenue: £154.3m (H1 25: £153.8m)

• EBITDA up 7.1% to £57.0m

• Pre-tax profit down 3.8% to £32.7m (down by 6.2% at constant currency)

• H1 earnings down 3.9% to 6.48p per share

• Interim dividend down 6.5% to 3.6p per share

• Net cash down 73% to £7.5m

April sales slump: June’s profit warning was triggered by a sales slump in France affecting both laundry and photobooth demand:

[...] the Group's overall H1 performance was impacted by trading in France in April, which the Board believes was largely attributable to a shift in consumer spending patterns and lower consumer confidence due to the Middle East conflict.

France is described as “the group’s largest and most profitable market” but ME doesn’t provide a country-level breakdown of revenue, so we can’t see how significant the impact really was.

German passport photos: last year’s regulatory changes in Germany also continued to place a drag on photobooth revenue in H1. Changes to photo ID regulations last year “require passport photos to be taken in the citizens’ office or by certified photographers”.

ME says it’s developing new machines incorporating “liveness detection and anti-spoofing technologies, designed to meet the new requirements”. Deployment is expected to start in H2 2026, so revenue could recover over the coming years.

WASH.ME is cleaning up: one of ME Group’s self-service laundry units has recently appeared in the car park of the Co-Op supermarket in my local town. According to the company, it’s one of 499 net machines installed during the first half of the year, with a further c.800 installations planned for H2.

A recent deal with Asda seems likely to accelerate UK growth – the company is targeting up to 700 machines across ASDA sites “in the longer term”. This is said to be the largest partnership in the company’s history.

For the first time, WASH.ME contributed more than half the group’s profit in H1.

Segmental results: the majority of revenue and profit comes from the photobooth and laundry businesses, so I’ll restrict this overview to these two key units:

PHOTO.ME

• Revenue down 6.4% to £79.0m

• EBITDA down 8.1% to £27.3m (47.7% of group EBITDA)

• EBITDA margin: 34.4% (H1 25: 35.1%)

• Number of units in operation down 0.7% to 30,356

Capex rose to £8.2m in H1 (H1 25: £5.7m) as the company continued to roll out its next-generation photobooths, mainly in France. These are said to be “multi-functional” and should require less maintenance while generating higher revenue.

The rollout still has a long way to go though – 4,362 next-generation machines had been installed at the end of April, less than 15% of total number in operation.

WASH.ME

• Revenue up 15.6% to £60.0m

• EBITDA up 20.9% to £30.7m (53.9% ot GROUP EBITDA)

• EBITDA margin: 51.2% (H1 25: 48.9%)

• Number of units in operation up 16.1% to 8,106

The company is continuing to roll-out new products and features. These include 200 dog washing machines “following successful trial”. I think these are being installed alongside laundry units so that pet owners can wash their dogs out of home.

Capex rose in this business too, up 3.5% to £14.9m.

Profitability & Balance Sheet: under pressure?

ME Group’s quality metrics are generally very strong and the group has historically maintained a net cash position on the balance sheet.

H1 margins were below last year’s full-year result, but were consistent with H1 in the prior year:

• H1 operating margin: 21.7% (H1 25: 21.5%)

• Trailing 12-month return on capital employed: 32.0%

Last year’s profits were weighted to the second half of the year, as is the norm for this business. A similar H2 weighting is expected for FY26.

• Net cash: £7.5m (H1 25: £27.6m)

The decline in net cash is pretty significant, but I don’t think it’s necessarily a concern. Checking the balance sheet and cash flow statement shows an £8m increase in inventories and some working capital outflows. Capital expenditure over the period also rose, with purchase of PP&E rising to £32.2m (H1 25: £27.6m).

All of this fits the profile of a business that’s investing in expansion – assuming this continued investment drives a recovery in revenue and profit growth, then I don’t think it should be a concern.

Outlook: H2 weighting, but no change to guidance

The H1 slowdown in France is being billed as a temporary blip from which the company is already recovering:

In H2 2026 to date, the Group has seen a return to more normal trading patterns, with total vending revenue for May 2026 11.1% higher than May 2025. Wash.ME and Photo.ME vending revenues increased 25.9% and 1.8%, respectively. The positive revenue trend continued in June.

June’s revised full-year guidance is unchanged today, with the caveat that “geopolitical factors [...] may lead to a softening of trading patterns”:

ME Group remains on track to meet revised full year expectations and for FY 2026 profit before tax to be in the range of £69 million to £74 million.

We don’t have access to broker coverage for this business.

Using Stockopedia consensus figures, this morning’s share price rise leaves ME stock trading on a forward P/E of 8.3 with a possible 7%+ dividend yield.

Roland’s view

Zooming out on the chart reminds us that this business has had periodic ups and downs before:

Our research has found that companies often underperform for an extended period of time after an initial profit warning. In my opinion, today’s outlook commentary is deliberately worded to leave some wiggle room if macro conditions do worsen again during the remainder of the year.

On the other hand, sometimes one-off factors do affect performance without signifying an underlying issue. That could be true here.

The StockRanks style this as a Contrarian share, with strong quality and value but (very) low momentum:

Today’s results don’t appear to highlight any serious issues. On this basis, I think ME shares are likely to be attractively valued at current levels on a medium-term view, given the group’s historical profitability and cash generation.

I can’t rule out the risk of further disappointment later this year, though. I’d also note this business has a slightly unfortunate record of accounting problems (see June).

On balance I feel I should upgrade our view to AMBER/GREEN today to reflect the value on offer. While such cheapness implies a certain risk, I think there’s a good chance this is reflected in the current valuation – the stock has fallen by c.50% over the last year.

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Concurrent Technologies (LON:CNC)

Up 2% at 255p (£222m) - Trading Update - Roland - AMBER =

There is nothing to dislike about today’s update from defence-focused computer group Concurrent Technologies, but at the same time I can see why the shares haven’t really moved.

Sprinkling the word record liberally through management commentary doesn’t change the fact that this update is in line with expectations, with a strong (albeit expected) H2 profit weighting required to meet guidance. Given the valuation metrics, a measured response from investors seems fair to me:

Key points - continuing momentum

Here are the key points from this morning’s half-year update, which covers the six months to 31 June:

• Revenue expected to be up 9.5% to £23.1m

• Pre-tax profit to be up 22% to £3.3m

• H1 order intake up 110% to £46.9m

• Excluding a recent c.£17m win, H1 order intake was still ahead of “any prior half-year period”

More broadly, Concurrent appears to be making progress in both its core Product division and the nascent Systems business. The company is also on track to expand its manufacturing capacity:

• Design wins: Concurrent secured further design wins in both Product and Systems “with a projected lifetime value of approximately £129m”.

• Product: “more modest order intake in the first quarter, followed by an improvement in the second quarter, providing greater revenue visibility in the second half”.

• Systems: secured orders totalling $8m in H1 “and delivered a profitable first half”. The Systems business is expected to become “increasingly material” to group performance over the medium term.

• Colchester factory: expansion is going to plan, with manufacturing capacity expected to “approximately double from Q3 2026”.

Memory shortages are a big issue in the computer industry currently, due to demand from deep-pocketed AI buyers. However, Concurrent says it has been able to manage these issues so far, “securing supplier commitments for forecast DRAM requirements through 2026 and into 2027”.

Outlook

The Company has entered H2 FY26 with good momentum, demonstrated by the $9.4m contract win announced post period end. Combined with a healthy backlog and pipeline and the expected conversion of design wins into production in H2, the Board believes that the Company is well positioned to at least deliver full year results for 2026 in line with current market expectations*.

The term “at least” suggests the risk is to the upside here, perhaps with the potential for an upgrade to guidance later in the year.

For now, expectations are unchanged. Details of current consensus expectations are helpfully included in the RNS:

• FY26E revenue: £53m (+15.5% vs FY25)

• FY26E pre-tax profit: £8m (+23% vs FY25)

The growth rates implied by these forecasts are very similar to those of 14% and 25%, respectively, achieved in 2025.

This is a good update that suggests Concurrent is maintaining the strong momentum of the last couple of years. Although these forecasts imply a 60/40 weighting to profits, we’ve got used to seeing H2-weighted results from this fast-growing business. I don’t see this as a particular concern.

Roland’s view

Since taking charge in June 2021, CEO Miles Adcock has rejuvenated a previously somewhat stodgy business.

Without wanting to take anything away from this achievement, I would argue that Adcock has also benefited from one of the greatest gifts that a new CEO can receive – wonderful timing.

Profitability has not particularly improved, to date:

And while Concurrent’s quality metrics are respectable, they are not exceptional:

The StockRanks also have a somewhat mixed view, perhaps reflecting the stock’s High Flyer status:

With Concurrent Technologies now trading on a forward P/E of 30, I would want to see a material upgrade to guidance or improved profitability to justify taking a positive view. I don’t see that today, so I’m going to leave our previous neutral view unchanged.