Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 12 June 2025) - NWF, CER, TSCO, HLMA

Thu 6:03am by Graham Neary

52 comments 5061 reads

Good morning! Welcome to Thursday's report.

Spreadsheet that accompanies this report: link.

The Agenda is complete.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Tesco (LON:TSCO) (£25.5bn)	Trading Update	Q1 LFL sales up 4.6%, UK market share +0.44% to 28.0%. FY exps unch: adj op profit £2.7-3.0bn.	AMBER (Roland) [no section below] Today’s update shows Tesco continuing to leverage its position as the UK’s largest supermarket (and one of the best managed). Market share has increased by 0.44% to 28%, nearly double that of second-place Sainsbury at 15.1%. Management says that the market remains “intensely competitive”, but the company is relatively well placed to deal with this thanks to its scale. UK LFL sales were up 5.1% ex-fuel in Q1, which I’d guess is slightly ahead of inflation. This supports the narrative on volume gains and increased market share. With a forward P/E of 14 and 3.6% yield, Tesco’s share price looks about right to me, so I’m leaving our neutral view unchanged
Halma (LON:HLMA) (£11.5bn)	Full Year Results	SP +5% Rev +11%, adj PBT +16% to £459.4m. 46th year of dividend growth. FY26 outlook “positive”: upper single digit organic revenue growth, adjusted EBIT margin modestly above the middle of the target range 19-23% (adjusted EBIT margin for FY March 2025 was similar at 21.6%).	AMBER/GREEN (Graham) [no section below] One of the most impressive stocks in the UK market has posted another strong set of results which I believe are ahead of expectations. There is a 7% increase in the final dividend. However, given the high valuation at which this stock trades, the trailing yield works out at only around 0.7% (forecast yield 0.8%). Applying a simple PEG ratio to the results gives an answer of 2.4x (adjusted) or 3.3x (actual). Given that the growth outlook is fairly modest this implies that the market places a very high premium on Halma’s earnings - a reasonable stance, given the solid track record. AMBER/GREEN seems to be a reasonable stance to take on this High Flyer, as its performance can’t be faulted. But given the valuation, I think that new investors here are likely to need a very long time horizon.
GCP Infrastructure Investments (LON:GCP) (£619m)	Interim Results	Net assets -6.6% YOY to £861.7m. NAVps -5% to 102.3p. H1 divi 3.5p (unch).
Cerillion (LON:CER) (£560m)	Proposed Secondary Placing (Wed - after market close)	SP -16%…

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Paul Burkitt

Thu 11:11am

Agreed. Also Halma find decent acquisitions to bolt on, so they obviously use the cash for these rather than doing nothing other than distributing via dividends.

af20001

Thu 11:33am

I saw a deep dive of those 0.7% growth figures from the last quarter a couple of weeks ago, where someone ploughed through all the ONS data.

It entirely consisted of exports to the US being brought forward to avoid the tariffs, and some kind of business investment number that had been seasonally adjusted upwards, although the real figure was down.

So no real growth at all.

Icarus2

Thu 12:13pm

Bad news for you I agree with your comments as my track record recently with AIM resource shares is horrendous. I thought the ticker on AIM was POW.

bsharman

Thu 12:32pm

Hi. I see that DBAY have gone over 14% in TT electronics (LON:TTG), although I am not sure why there are two shareholder names given : DBAY and Pershing ?

I have had quite a few takeover situations in the past where DBAY have been involved and it looks like this could be on the cards again? Any thoughts? Thanks!

donald pond

Thu 12:41pm

Pershing Nominees is just the name of the account at the global custodian they use. You can ignore that.

Rusty2

Thu 12:50pm

MS International (LON:MSI) I think a lot of the rise was due to increased defence spending and drones. Most peers also have gone up. Chemring (LON:CHG) is up even more in the last month.

SundayTrader

Thu 2:06pm

Most companies with nil revenues have more cash than the market cap. Valuation is a matter of the quality of the assets, including assets which happen to be quoted. In the case of a mining exploration co, that is not easy for those of us with no knowledge of the industry.

The Boon Fund

Thu 2:48pm

The investment case for PayPoint (LON:PAY) for me is summed up in one paragraph.

They are "THE" tech stack in over 20,000 convenience stores across the entire UK. That Tech Stack (called Paypoint One) powers all kinds of services - from parcels to depositing money for a bank account to applying for an international driving permit.

Its a very big moat. Shopkeepers love it as they get to cross-sell so many extra services, on top of the milk+bread+vape that someone comes into store for. Also drives footfall, to increase the milk+bread+vape sales. There is no other player in the UK that can compete against Paypoint.

The key investment case is whether you think Paypoint can continue to roll out more Services on the Paypoint One platform. Or whether we're now at the saturation point.

The paypoint One estate continues to grow in low-single digits, and churn (I believe, haven't seen figures published) is low.

I was invested in Paypoint at 440p and sold out at c660p. Been waiting for an opportunity to get back in, but was a worried about the Yodel situation over the last year, as well as the Utilita litigation (now settled). But at the current SP of 790p I'm not a buyer, probably 600p or lower I would be. I just think they don't have enough in the NPD pipeline in terms of new services to add double digit growth for the next few years.

JSLDUK

Thu 3:03pm

Renold (LON:RNO) good to see this one up 9% today on no news (that I can see) feels like marketing expecting news on the sale shortly……

planetx

Thu 4:32pm

Mmm

“Quslity of assets” - well cash is cash and it tells no lies and Gmet is highly realiseable (thats where the 7/8 million came from.

Not sure I know of too many comoanies with more cash than market cap ? If you can share that would be intersting

POW sold its first tranche of gmet and the SP of POW was 14.5p

Now its cashed up and GMET is up
30%

I think this is about outflows and a strong seller

Just cant see any downside if GMET holds its gains , which is a 50/50

Anyway not my normal stamping ground but Neil my FD was right “cash in the bank tells no lies”

bottomoftheheap

Thu 4:53pm

Renold (LON:RNO) the takeover panel time announcement (unless they're granted an exception) is due on 17th(next Tuesday), perhaps the rise is punters gambling on an improved offer. https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

disc: very overweight in RNO since the Millenium.

Tomas Gomez

Thu 5:30pm

Dissapointing not to see much coverage on Paypoint from Stockopedia today, as seems to be a lot of interest on it.

The Phoenix

Thu 5:59pm

Plenty of good stuff in the comments though on the bull and bear.

Thu 6:01pm

Yes a bit curious, no coverage of PayPoint (LON:PAY) but full report on NWF (LON:NWF).

Thu 6:14pm

Yes but it is not tagged, so it won't show up on further searches.
But Tesco (LON:TSCO) will.

Trying to find comments, on this site, is too much hard work.

Revs8

Thu 6:49pm

Yes. Very unusual for the most viewed stock not to get coverage. Maybe Graham didn't have time and will do a backlog? Some excellent info posted below.

Jon F

Fri 3:14am

Hi planetx,

"Not sure I know of too many comoanies with more cash than market cap ? If you can share that would be intersting"

If you screen for negative EV, you can find companies with net cash. Mostly they are uninvestable, but they exist.

Another favourite of mine is screening for Price vs Net Net Working Capital less than 1.

Nexus Infrastructure (LON:NEXS) (I hold) was one example which has now re-rated.

Regards ,

Jon

Graham Neary

Fri 6:06am

Roland's section on PayPoint has been published today, Rusty.

Fri 6:17am

We've got Roland's section on PayPoint published in today's report, Tomas!

ShoeShineBoy

2:43pm

Thank you to Megan for the write-ups on Tesco (LON:TSCO) and J Sainsbury (LON:SBRY) earlier in the year. Due to my employment status, I couldn't quickly get out of my large holding in Tesco (LON:TSCO) back in March when Asda private equity bosses announced they were going to be more competitive on prices. So I decided to hold on and there has been a lovely recovery in the SP since then.

Thursday's announcement confirmed an increase in both LFL sales and market share. Booker and lack of non-food sales along with the Clubcard are Tesco (LON:TSCO) strengths. The CEO confirmed potential cyber attacks are top of his inbox and higher taxes / more regulation is taking is adding to cost inflation.

I originally bought back in 2021 before inflation took off and higher interest rates provided a return (of sorts) on cash. QVM was 34/93/16 back in mid-2021 versus 50/56/91 now. I bought on the hope of continued dividends (which have happened) and maybe a special dividend (which hasn't happened) but didn't expect a decent capital gain (which has clearly happened). I'm wondering whether the SP will finally go through 400 pence and be taken higher by momentum ? I'm tempted to sell and bank my gains. Would like to buy Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) but that has also taken off post Trump tariffs!

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 12 June 2025) - NWF, CER, TSCO, HLMA

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Graham Neary

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