112
Archived articleThis is an archived article from 2025 - please note that any content within the article may be out of date.

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 12 June 2025) - NWF, CER, TSCO, HLMA

Good morning! Welcome to Thursday's report.

Spreadsheet that accompanies this report: link.

The Agenda is complete.


Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)RNSSummaryOur view (Author)

Tesco (LON:TSCO) (£25.5bn)

Trading Update

Q1 LFL sales up 4.6%, UK market share +0.44% to 28.0%. FY exps unch: adj op profit £2.7-3.0bn.AMBER (Roland) [no section below]

Today’s update shows Tesco continuing to leverage its position as the UK’s largest supermarket (and one of the best managed). Market share has increased by 0.44% to 28%, nearly double that of second-place Sainsbury at 15.1%. Management says that the market remains “intensely competitive”, but the company is relatively well placed to deal with this thanks to its scale. UK LFL sales were up 5.1% ex-fuel in Q1, which I’d guess is slightly ahead of inflation. This supports the narrative on volume gains and increased market share.
With a forward P/E of 14 and 3.6% yield, Tesco’s share price looks about right to me, so I’m leaving our neutral view unchanged

Halma (LON:HLMA) (£11.5bn)

Full Year Results

SP +5%
Rev +11%, adj PBT +16% to £459.4m. 46th year of dividend growth. FY26 outlook “positive”: upper single digit organic revenue growth, adjusted EBIT margin modestly above the middle of the target range 19-23% (adjusted EBIT margin for FY March 2025 was similar at 21.6%).
AMBER/GREEN (Graham) [no section below]
One of the most impressive stocks in the UK market has posted another strong set of results which I believe are ahead of expectations. There is a 7% increase in the final dividend. However, given the high valuation at which this stock trades, the trailing yield works out at only around 0.7% (forecast yield 0.8%). Applying a simple PEG ratio to the results gives an answer of 2.4x (adjusted) or 3.3x (actual). Given that the growth outlook is fairly modest this implies that the market places a very high premium on Halma’s earnings - a reasonable stance, given the solid track record. AMBER/GREEN seems to be a reasonable stance to take on this High Flyer, as its performance can’t be faulted. But given the valuation, I think that new investors here are likely to need a very long time horizon.

GCP Infrastructure Investments (LON:GCP) (£619m)

Interim Results

Net assets -6.6% YOY to £861.7m. NAVps -5% to 102.3p. H1 divi 3.5p (unch).
Cerillion (LON:CER) (£560m)Proposed Secondary Placing (Wed - after market close)SP -16% at 1,600p

CEO Louis Hall announces plans to sell 1.3m shares at 1,500p, equivalent to c.£20m. My sums suggest this is equivalent to c.15% of his previous 30.5% holding, leaving him with a c.26% stake

AMBER (Roland) [no section below]

This placing price represents a chunky 21% discount to yesterday’s closing price of 1,900p. It’s a little disappointing to see such a big discount, as it suggests to me that institutional demand may not have been that strong.
Assuming this placing completes as planned, institutional buyers will enjoy an immediate profit while private investors will simply see the value of their shares slump. If Cerillion continues its strong long-term growth this may not matter too much. But a ValueRank of 4 and a forward P/E of 30 suggest to me that current growth expectations are in the price. The company also recently warned of an H2 profit weighting. I’m going to maintain the neutral view I took in May.

PayPoint (LON:PAY) (£534m)

Results for year ended March 2025

Rev +1.4%, adj PBT +10.2% to £68m. Extended buyback. FY26 outlook in line with exps.

Crest Nicholson Holdings (LON:CRST) (£486m)

Half-year Report

H1 in line, FY guidance unch. H1 rev -3.1%, completions -6%, adj op profit +92% to £11.9m.

Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI) (£390m)

Full Year Results

EPRA EPS +4.9% to 6.1p, dividend +3.5% to 6.0p. NAVps +2.9% to 96.1p.

Origin Enterprises (LON:OGN) (£326m)

Trading Update

Rev +4.1% YTD, with good organic growth. FY adj EPS guidance 50 to 52 cents.

Idox (LON:IDOX) (£276m)

Half Year Results

Rev +4%, op profit +14% to £6.4m. Adj EPS +17% to 1.48p. Record H1 orders, outlook in line.

Norcros (LON:NXR) (£240m)

Results for year ended March 2025

Rev -6.1% (+0.9% LFL CCY). Adj PBT +0.3% to £36.5m. YTD sales -1.8% LFL, FY26 exps unch.

Benchmark Holdings (LON:BMK) (£178m)

Interim Results

H1 rev from cont. ops -22% due to sales pause. Adj EBITDA -56%. Net cash £126m. Outlook in line.

Team Internet (LON:TIG) (£155m)

10-year contract to operate .co domain

Colombia’s .co domain has over 3m registrations. TIG JV will retain 8% of gross revenue.

Motorpoint (LON:MOTR) (£139m)

Full Year Results

In line, rev +8.0%, return to profit with PBT of £4.1m. EPS 3.7p, div 1.0p. FY26: “positive momentum”

John Wood (LON:WG.) (£128m)

Extension of PUSU deadline

Deadline for firm offer from Sidara extended to 30/06/25. Working on refinancing and FY24 accounts.

JZ Capital Partners (LON:JZCP) (£122m)

Full Year Results

NAV -13% to $274.6m. NAVps -0.5% to $4.06. Realised $47.4m. Portfolio $167m + $77m cash.

Avation (LON:AVAP) (£98m)

Sale of ATR Aircraft from Orderbook

Opportunistic deal releases $5m in net cash proceeds, may be used to deleverage.

NWF (LON:NWF) (£86m)

Trading Update & Acquisition

Slightly ahead of expectations as strong Feed results offset a disappointing performance in Food. PBT also boosted by one-off finance savings.
Acquisition in fuel distribution, no price given. Net cash £6m.

AMBER/GREEN (Roland)
Profits for the year just ended should be higher than expected, due to a mix of trading benefits and one-off finance savings.
I like this business but I’m a little concerned by slowing growth and apparent management issues in the Food business over the last year.
I don’t want to over-react, given positive overall progress. But I think a measure of caution may be prudent until we learn more, despite NWF’s solid track record.

Christie (LON:CTG) (£38m)

AGM Trading Update

Encouraging demand with robust lender and investor appetite. Full year expectations unchanged.

Hercules (LON:HERC) (£37m)

Acquisition of Quality Transport Training

Increases capacity of Hercules Academy in West Midlands. QTT’s employees will transfer there.No price given.

EnSilica (LON:ENSI) (£34m)

Contract Update

Extended royalty agreement, estimated worth c. $28m over 10 years (previously $15m over 5).

Gear4music (HOLDINGS) (LON:G4M) (£31m)

Asset Purchase

Buys stock from administrators with cost value of £2.4m. Price: £1.2m.

Manx Financial (LON:MFX) (£26m)

2024 Results Advance Guidance

FY Dec 2024: anticipating 41% increase in PBT to c. £9.9m. Results to be released by 25 June.

Revolution Beauty (LON:REVB) (£25m)

Update on Formal Sale Process

Evaluating proposals from a number of parties. Also engaging with shareholders re: equity raise.

Symphony Environmental Technologies (LON:SYM) (£18m)

Preliminary Results

Rev +4% (£6.59m). Operating loss £1.09m (previous year: £1.99m). Q1 loss substantially reduced.

Mind Gym (LON:MIND) (£17m)

Full Year Results

Rev -14%. Adj. EBITDA £1.0m, statutory loss £6.2m. Cash £0.6m.

Abingdon Health (LON:ABDX) (£13m)

€2m contract win for companion diagnostic health

Most revenue will fall into FY26. “..underlines the strength of our fully integrated CDMO service”.

Pod Point group (LON:PODP) (£9.5m)

Full Year Results & Recommended Cash Offer

Utility group EDF has made a cash offer of 6.5p per share (£10.6m), recommended by PODP’s board.

PINK

Mobile Tornado (LON:MBT) (£4.6m)

Full Year Results

Rev -10%. Adj. LBITDA £0.6m. New CEO. 2025: renewed sales momentum. Material uncertainty.

Roland's Section

NWF (LON:NWF)

Unchanged at 172p (£85m) - Trading Update & Acquisition - Roland - AMBER/GREEN

NWF Group plc ('NWF' the 'Company' or the 'Group'), the specialist distributor operating in UK markets, today provides a trading update for the financial year ended 31 May 2025 ("FY25") and announces the bolt-on acquisition of Pinnock Brothers.

Today’s update from this AIM-listed distribution specialist is billed as ahead of expectations. However, the share price is flat this morning, with the market perhaps sharing my view that the majority of today’s beat is due to one-off finance savings rather than trading outperformance.

Let’s take a look.

Trading update: NWF has very precisely provided amended guidance for two different measures of profit today.

  • Headline [adjusted] operating profit: this is expected to be “slightly ahead of expectations” for the year ended 31 May 2025 due to stronger trading than expected, albeit with a different mix – see below.

  • Headline pre-tax profit: this is expected to be “ahead of expectations” – a larger upgrade. This is due to the operating profit beat plus the late delivery of some new vehicles, resulting in lower lease costs than expected.

  • Year-end net cash was £6m after paying for acquisitions, also ahead of expectations.

Market expectations are helpfully provided in the footnote (useful, as we don’t have access to any broker notes for NWF):

  • FY25 consensus headline operating profit: £16.0m (FY24: £14.2m)

  • FY25 consensus headline pre-tax profit: £11.7m (FY24: £12.5m)

  • FY25 consensus net cash: £3.1m

Assuming a beat of less than 5%, NWF shares are trading on c.10x earnings at current levels, which is fairly typical for this business:

AD_4nXfdWAOm0kBl2iQc2caiAH4gSXxouWfQ_F7Wn847HMuYx0v96pW3bSLHrXYWqMsVvlZD4VSbe7VvWPu5xW7bh6tA82HixaTTTUFiP-D9axa2bbEP_hsC-qnVtPGEgZgxANWVZXmD?key=fVQzW3xlryjEzEvvMILejQ

This business trades through three semi-autonomous divisions, Fuel, Food and Feed. Today’s commentary on each of these is worth noting and contains some mixed news.

Fuel: fuel volumes last year were in line with the prior year, with an increase in demand for domestic heating oil offsetting lower commercial volumes. However, margins are said to have improved, with the benefit of cost savings and new initiatives to improve sales and fleet efficiency.

Fuels is the largest business and contributed over half group operating profit last year. However, it’s a mature market that’s arguably in the early stages of decline.

NWF’s strategy is to act as a consolidator, buying up smaller local firms. The company has made two acquisitions recently (including one announced today) that add 55m litres or 8% to NWF’s existing volumes. It will be interesting to see if this volume increase is reflected in the FY26 results.

Food: a year ago, NWF was using overflow storage to cope with strong growth and had committed to building a new warehouse to add capacity. In the intervening period, something seems to have changed:

The business had a disappointing year generating lower profitability than planned.

In today’s results the company reports average storage volumes of 156,000 pallet spaces last year (FY24: 137k), which was “lower than anticipated”.

The new 52,000 pallet warehouse at Lymedale completed to budget and schedule in Q1, but it has not filled up as quickly as expected:

The warehouse is operating well but continues to have excess capacity as conversion of the customer pipeline has been slower than anticipated, and continues to be a focus for the business.

NWF says that measures have been taken to improve performance in Food, including “management changes and a restructuring process to right-size the cost base”.

In addition to this, the company says it’s continuing to work with advisors on resolving IR35 payroll tax issues relating to “a conflict of interest” that was discovered in H1 (relating to the provision of transport services).

I’ve previously had a very positive view of the Foods business. But things seem to have gone a little off track over the last year.

Feed: it looks like some of the weakness in Food has been offset by a stronger performance in Feed, with “overall performance ahead of expectations”.

NWF says that strong milk prices have encouraged dairy farmers to maximise [milk] yields from their herds, boosting demand for feed. As a result, “volumes in FY25 were ahead of the prior year”.

An investment in “moist feed production” has also gone well, generating customer demand ahead of plan.

Roland’s view

I’ve previously been a fan of this business, which delivered strong growth under its previous long-time CEO Richard Whiting, who was in charge for 15 years before retiring in March 2024.

AD_4nXel1MFP350TFtk9M2ug3Qo-XHu6vrmhsGJJZa0KxFgPsCPcrxPU3PcGBJ6dgEtSJdbotZEjhMUsgODSj0yssDbrDI3xCzggMFVQ2FAYblxHqUEZLTNcmcJ0QeuRht5ejTIx5YZE?key=fVQzW3xlryjEzEvvMILejQ

This steady track record is also reflected in an impressive 28-year record of dividend growth. Against this backdrop, I think the current 4.8% yield could be attractive:

AD_4nXe-7HieQBastukLUwArBiNnHF2f2imdFA74ZyfFgB47KJf2FCR4dHcDi1ozovzhxU6lmCKYv_FJ3nyF0n_izMvYFqw3GbbXlMhaf1bHRwMznDSFIosdhCrB54BJ9-fdoVmwo133GA?key=fVQzW3xlryjEzEvvMILejQ

However, I’m a little concerned by the apparent multiple problems in the Food business over the last year. To me, these seem to suggest possible problems with management and culture in this division.

While Fuel and Feed are both fairly mature markets with adequate capacity, Food was previously a core engine of growth for NWF. My impression from previous results webinars is that current CEO Chris Belsham saw this as a key market for expanding the business, potentially by creating a national footprint.

In fairness, changes are underway and last year’s setbacks may simply be a bump in the road. The Fuels business seems likely to remain a reliable source of profits and I believe both Fuels and Feed have sufficient scale to remain competitive in their regions.

On balance, I think the NWF shares look fairly priced at 1x book value and am encouraged by today’s upgrade. To reflect recent share price gains and my mixed view on last year’s performance, I’m going AMBER/GREEN ahead of the company’s full-year results in July.

Disclaimer

This is not financial advice. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for information and education purposes only. Please read our disclaimer and terms and conditions to understand our obligations.

52 comments


Avatar for ShoeShineBoy

Thank you to Megan for the write-ups on Tesco (LON:TSCO) and J Sainsbury (LON:SBRY) earlier in the year. Due to my employment status, I couldn't quickly get out of my large holding in Tesco (LON:TSCO) back in March when Asda private equity bosses announced they were going to be more competitive on prices. So I decided to hold on and there has been a lovely recovery in the SP since then.

16a38218-c67b-4f87-8681-5a99d006daaf.png

Thursday's announcement confirmed an increase in both LFL sales and market share. Booker and lack of non-food sales along with the Clubcard are Tesco (LON:TSCO) strengths. The CEO confirmed potential cyber attacks are top of his inbox and higher taxes / more regulation is taking is adding to cost inflation.

35a8938f-64b1-4408-94bf-31bebd3a5377.png

I originally bought back in 2021 before inflation took off and higher interest rates provided a return (of sorts) on cash. QVM was 34/93/16 back in mid-2021 versus 50/56/91 now. I bought on the hope of continued dividends (which have happened) and maybe a special dividend (which hasn't happened) but didn't expect a decent capital gain (which has clearly happened). I'm wondering whether the SP will finally go through 400 pence and be taken higher by momentum ? I'm tempted to sell and bank my gains. Would like to buy Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) but that has also taken off post Trump tariffs!

1
Avatar for Tomas Gomez

Dissapointing not to see much coverage on Paypoint from Stockopedia today, as seems to be a lot of interest on it.

9
Avatar for The Phoenix

Plenty of good stuff in the comments though on the bull and bear.

1
Avatar for Rusty2

Yes but it is not tagged, so it won't show up on further searches.
But Tesco (LON:TSCO) will. 

Trying to find comments, on this site, is too much hard work.

4
Avatar for Rusty2


Yes a bit curious,  no coverage of PayPoint (LON:PAY) but full report on NWF (LON:NWF).

4
Avatar for Graham Neary

Roland's section on PayPoint has been published today, Rusty.

2
Avatar for Revs8

Yes. Very unusual for the most viewed stock not to get coverage. Maybe Graham didn't have time and will do a backlog? Some excellent info posted below.

3
Avatar for Graham Neary

We've got Roland's section on PayPoint published in today's report, Tomas!

2
Avatar for JSLDUK

Renold (LON:RNO) good to see this one up 9% today on no news (that I can see) feels like marketing expecting news on the sale shortly……

5
Avatar for bottomoftheheap

Renold (LON:RNO) the takeover panel time announcement  (unless they're granted an exception) is due on 17th(next Tuesday),  perhaps the rise is punters gambling on an improved offer.  https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

 disc: very overweight in RNO since the Millenium.

3
Avatar for bsharman

Hi. I see that DBAY have gone over 14% in TT electronics (LON:TTG), although I am not sure why there are two shareholder names given : DBAY and Pershing ? 

I have had quite a few takeover situations in the past where DBAY have been involved and it looks like this could be on the cards again? Any thoughts? Thanks! 

745e5960-2c36-4ff3-ae8d-56a224e83554.png

3
Avatar for donald pond

Pershing Nominees is just the name of the account at the global custodian they use. You can ignore that.

6
Avatar for Mark

If you get a chance can you please have a look at Manx Financial (LON:MFX) Graham. Jim Mellon chairs the company and is doing very well but communication to the market is diabolical! Your views would be very appreciated. 

2
Avatar for planetx

Head sctatcher valuation

Power metal resources

Not my usual playing field but anomalous valuation

Market cap 15 million

7 or 8 million cash

They own 20% of gmet which has rerated - 20% of gmet is now worth more than the entire market cap of PMR

Plus other investnents

Assuming GMET holds its price gains its an anomaly

As gmet goes up PMR goes down , looks like theres a determined seller

Not for the faint of heart but hard to see 7million cash and 16 million of GMet plus its other invrstments being worth only 15 million

Stock market is a voting machine not a weighing machine

I keep buying in the 13p region

Surely its like being able to buy a quid for 50p

Maybe PMR management are so useless that they are going to blow the lot , but i just think the stock is unloved, unfollowed .

Maybe GMeT will pull back but the fag packet still looks ok even if gmet slips back 25%

13
Avatar for Icarus2

Bad news for you I agree with your comments as  my track record recently with AIM resource shares is horrendous. I thought the ticker on AIM was POW.

2
Avatar for SundayTrader

Most companies with nil revenues have more cash than the market cap.  Valuation is a matter of the quality of the assets, including assets which happen to be quoted.  In the case of a mining exploration co, that is not easy for those of us with no knowledge of the industry.

4
Avatar for planetx

Mmm 

“Quslity of assets”  - well cash is cash and it tells no lies and Gmet is  highly realiseable (thats where the 7/8 million came from.

Not sure I know of too many comoanies with more cash than market cap ?   If you can share that would be intersting 

POW sold its  first tranche of gmet and the SP of  POW was 14.5p

Now its cashed up and GMET is up 
30% 

I think this  is about outflows and a strong seller 

Just cant see any downside if  GMET holds its gains ,  which is a 50/50 

Anyway not my  normal stamping ground but Neil my FD was right “cash in the bank tells no lies”




5
Avatar for Jon F

Hi planetx, 

"Not sure I know of too many comoanies with more cash than market cap ? If you can share that would be intersting"

If you screen for negative EV, you can find companies with net cash. Mostly they are uninvestable, but they exist.

Another favourite of mine is screening for Price vs Net Net Working Capital less than 1.

Nexus Infrastructure (LON:NEXS) (I hold) was one example which has now re-rated.

Regards , 

Jon

1
Avatar for Dicky Mint

Very sad news regarding Air India flight 171 which has crashed with a reported 240+ passengers and crew. 
The aircraft was a Boeing Dreamliner 787 powered by General Electric engines. 
This is breaking news and all over the news if anyone wants further updates. 

19
Avatar for sheeza

I know queries like this are disliked, but I know there are several knowledgeable holders of MS International (LON:MSI) here. Any idea why the price has dropped sharply this morning?

2
Avatar for Rusty2

MS International (LON:MSI) It is only down 4%. Probably just profit taking.

Cerillion (LON:CER) is down 16% due to a large director sale.

6
Avatar for sheeza

Thanks

0
Avatar for Spider1234

Opp for Cerillion (LON:CER) ?

1
Avatar for jamesalastair

Looks within the band of normal volatility + has had a good run after a flat year, so maybe swing traders cashing in? I hold. I would not worry ... prime takeover target. Maybe Cohort (LON:CHRT) (also hold) will step in buy the naval gun business and sell the forklift and petrol station cowlings business?

2
Avatar for rmillaree

MS International (LON:MSI)

downgrades in economy perhaps ?

looking at graph why did shareprice make recent jumps up ? if there is no specific reason for jump up and thats reversing and we are back where we were 30 days ago - is this not simply natural variance at play - or no variance overall if it was simply spike up that reversed itself.

Many shares do follow  the same when they go up nicely in price - once that trend up ends and reverses it simply comes back down to a less hightened level. 30% gain in short order was pretty decent. thats pretty natural if we say it overshoots at the top a bit. Prbabaly one more for chartists.

4
Avatar for Rusty2

MS International (LON:MSI) I think a lot of the rise was due to increased defence spending and drones. Most peers also have gone up. Chemring (LON:CHG) is up even more in the last month. 

3
Avatar for Spider1234

Hello,

MS International (LON:MSI) chart a bit vertical, profit taking not unusual

1
Avatar for mikebianchi

Nice update from Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI. REITS much covered some months back inc Paul ex Stocko but I've never seen any comment on this particular REIT. I've been upping my holding as I like thier small unit model, its far more diverse. Handsome div also.

Interested even in brief re your thoughts


7
Avatar for Bouden54

Nice diversified REIT with solid track record and fully covered divi - there's been quite a big re-rating across the sector and of course several REITs have recently been taken out.  I think CREI and SREI are the only decent REITs still trading on a double digit discount. Of the two, I slightly prefer SREI due to its higher reversionary potential (i.e. the income it should eventually generate when all the rental uplifts go through) and long-term, low cost debt (they cleverly took out very long term, cheap debt just before rates spiked higher a few years ago - from memory the fair value of this loan is worth around 3p but not included in the NAV).

7
Avatar for snowdrop

I am seeing no Our View at all atm, nor any longer analysis.Is it just me, Billy no mates.

1
Avatar for Cuddlesticks

For those interested in PayPoint (LON:PAY) and want to decipherer the Group’s lack of transparency, I hope the following helps a little:

Adjusted PBT

Exceptionals:

Legal settlement Utilita

Legal fees Utilita/Global 365

Office lease write off

Love2shop ERP write off

Investment values:(obconnect/Yodel)

Amortisation intangibles on acquisitions

Statutory PBT



£(14.2)m

£(6.4)m

£(2.0)m

£(0.8)m

£68.0m





£(23.4)m

£(9.6)m

£(8.7)m

£26.3m

Somehow the Utilita settlement, agreed on 13 May 2025, didn’t merit an RNS.

Pluses

Building niche services for business that:

  • Are retreating from high street: banks, Royal Mail
  • Require last mile delivery/collection/returns for ecommerce: Amazon etc
  • Want more shop footfall e.g. local newsagents, convenience stores

Strongly cash generative – FCF yield above 6%

Leveraging local shop estate assets, enables asset light model and combined with digit nature of services drives high operating margins - above 35%

Today’s buyback and leverage target announcements may focus management’s attention on organic growth

Minuses

  • Combines complex array of services with poor transparency e.g. there is no profit breakdown by business line
  • Legacy business (collecting cash payments for energy business) is in decline and subject to legal disputes that appear more costly than management indicated
  • Difficult to get a handle on how new businesses are replacing legacy – the strategic targets announced are limited to revenue growth and capital allocation, nothing on profits
  • Quality and rationale of love2shop acquisition seems questionable at best
  • Amongst all this net debt has grown from £67m to £94m with dividends and share buy backs outstripping free cash flow generated.
  • In summary, given the modest revenue growth targets (5% to 8%), the lack of profit and cash flow visibility means it’s difficult to see how PayPoint (LON:PAY) will realise its new buyback and leverage targets. More transparency around the construction of the sausage is required.
75
Avatar for LumpedOn

Good work on PayPoint (LON:PAY) , thanks. Good to see different viewpoints on this one - it's a long termer for me but I traded out at the high last year, and then back in again when it dropped back by 20%. So I watch it closely but probably through rose-tinteds !

I know others here, esp Revs8 are holders too, so hope there's some varied viewpoints alongside some coverage from Graham and team today. Good to see it break £8 today, question is will it hold & grow.

It still passes a screen I made combining two of the "Fix the Odds" screens that Megan and team developed, the ValueGrowth and QualityGrowth ones, and I'm trying to stick with more mechanical principles nowadays so put some faith in this screen...could be wrong of course.

21
Avatar for Brookeda

Thanks for your thoughts and summary. As an holder of PayPoint (LON:PAY) I found this very useful

9
Avatar for The Boon Fund

The investment case for PayPoint (LON:PAY) for me is summed up in one paragraph.

They are "THE" tech stack in over 20,000 convenience stores across the entire UK. That Tech Stack (called Paypoint One) powers all kinds of services - from parcels to depositing money for a bank account to applying for an international driving permit.

Its a very big moat. Shopkeepers love it as they get to cross-sell so many extra services, on top of the milk+bread+vape that someone comes into store for. Also drives footfall, to increase the milk+bread+vape sales. There is no other player in the UK that can compete against Paypoint.

The key investment case is whether you think Paypoint can continue to roll out more Services on the Paypoint One platform. Or whether we're now at the saturation point.

The paypoint One estate continues to grow in low-single digits, and churn (I believe, haven't seen figures published) is low.


I was invested in Paypoint at 440p and sold out at c660p. Been waiting for an opportunity to get back in, but was a worried about the Yodel situation over the last year, as well as the Utilita litigation (now settled). But at the current SP of 790p I'm not a buyer, probably 600p or lower I would be. I just think they don't have enough in the NPD pipeline in terms of new services to add double digit growth for the next few years.

16
Avatar for Paul Burkitt

Halma (LON:HLMA)


Had this for 20+ years.  46th year of dividend growth is  very impressive to say the least.  

17
Avatar for bohenie

Yes I can't get my head round this - its obviously highly regarded with PE at a staggering 36 and a divi which as you say has increased every year but is still well below 1% 

2
Avatar for BnB


Halma (LON:HLMA) divi which as you say has increased every year but is still well below 1%

Not if you bought 10 or 20 years ago - at least based on your original stake!

4
Avatar for Paul Burkitt

Agreed. Also Halma find decent acquisitions to bolt on, so they obviously use the cash for these rather than doing nothing other than distributing via dividends.

2
Avatar for The Phoenix

Another one for PayPoint (LON:PAY) if you have time team.

21
Avatar for rmillaree

Norcros (LON:NXR)

Bit of a mixed bag here - their trading is very anaemic at present. Overall though despite poor start to the year on lfl basic they say they are stil on track. Defo gradual evolution here rather than revolution - as the evolution does come at a  price as they have clsoed units down. I do have confidence though core trading in the uk is ok and their "plan" to get decent quality products sole that compliment each other and have decent margins is broadly on track - they are very much running to stand still.  Key metrics like concentrating on target margin and  ROCE seem sound.  For example they have moved form 26 to 15 warehouses in the uk - thats shows the behind the scenes work to get everything working at scale and out with the old.

Ref pension great progress here - as things stand they can stop contributions form 2027 and put excess into eschrow funds just in case its not needed. Issues hasnt gone away but its never been more under control. Scheme liabilities have dropped by £17 mill - the less they owe out ref pension scheme liabilities the less potential there is for the return on assets to fall short - the overal sum they has been trending down nicely for years now - so less needs to be invested on which returns may be variable. Debt coming down nicely - so finance costs will reduce and they probably have funds now for complimentary acquisition(s) to fight against the anaemic prganic growth.

Plenty to not like here - SA not doing great - execptional costs to p&l chunky albeit mostly flaged previously non cash costs.

perhaps if we end with their core metric its not to shabby overall bearing in mind semi depressed housing market 

UK and Ireland - record underlying profit of £39.8m (2024: £38.4m) and underlying operating profit margin of 15.5% (2024: 13.6%)


 Share price has being doing ok - p/s is up to heady 8. cant see many adding at this price but i am in no hurry to sell any of my core holding here at this price - happy to get my 4% payout while i wait.

9
Avatar for NeilS

Agree with all your points and you have an intelligent fanatic management team making good decisions and pulling the right levers to make progress through lots of  continuous improvement so there’s no point worrying about short/medium term macro issues.

In the long run they will have created a stronger business, better able to take advantage of the upturn. I also think that their development of ‘complete bathrooms’ could drive high value sales and there is lots of talk about strengthening the supply chain backbone of the business.


Biased as I’m a long term holder!

2
Avatar for Bouden54

£NXR Are there any plans to get rid of the South African business? This probably contributes to the low rating and performance of this division seems to be quite erratic, so surely better just to sell it.

2
Avatar for rmillaree

Norcros (LON:NXR)

Norcros (LON:NXR) Are there any plans to get rid of the South African business? This probably contributes to the low rating and performance of this division seems to be quite erratic, so surely better just to sell it.

The SA side is at present trensing to perhaps less than 10% of profits as things stand - certainly less than 20% if it fires on all cylinders and fuly recovers. This being the case its clearly non material and shouldnt really be affecting the valuation too much now as it did a few years back. Note their have been material issues in Sa ref energy and the like over the lastc puple of years. They are conducting strategic review of SA right now - so there will be update here.

Personally i am 100% happy for them to not make any knee jerk changes ref SA  - perhaps streamlining or winding down on anything that is not at least covering itself. SA has many issues and i like to think that by having a presence in SA they are providing necessary jobs and a boost  to the local economy. 

They have specifically mentioned they have used Sa supply chain to design theyr new enhanced ranges of stuff - so SA also bring something to the table ref the overall running of the business.

so as long as its obviously not losing money or wasting capital resources - i very much want them to keep their SA ties - mostly so loyal workforce in that country keep their jobs - if stuff closes down there the odds of anyone else coming in and picking up the slack may be minimal - as thre  are many other "easier places to do business" - its all too easy to shut up shop and move somewhere where life is easier - hopefully they will stick with SA. SA has ben churning out reliable consistent profits (labeit they may have droped down) and has paid them back well ref acquisitions they made there - so its all fine and dandy to me. at 10-15% of group profits max and reducing it warrants virtually no reduction ref valuation now imho - or say no more than  5-10% max 

 

7
Avatar for eParo

The UK economy shrank more than expected in April, official data has shown, suggesting momentum built up in the beginning of this year has already worn away.

New figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showing a 0.3 per cent contraction come off the back of a strong 0.7 per cent growth in the first quarter, which made the UK the fastest-growing economy in the G7.

18
Avatar for af20001

I saw a deep dive of those 0.7% growth figures from the last quarter a couple of weeks ago, where someone ploughed through all the ONS data.

It entirely consisted of exports to the US being brought forward to avoid the tariffs, and some kind of business investment number that had been seasonally adjusted upwards, although the real figure was down.

So no real growth at all.

11
Avatar for Revs8

PayPoint (LON:PAY) win the award for most comprehensive set of results. I’ve no doubt the team will be unpicking this one today. Good luck. 
PayPoint (LON:PAY) is one of my larger holdings and today’s report does nothing to dent my confidence. They are consistently delivering their plan and openly reporting their progress. 
In my view they are rapidly becoming a significant player for online services, that need a point of contact with consumers, through the UK’s myriad of small shops and businesses. 

I’ve no idea how the market will react today but buying back circa 20% of the issued shares whilst promising growth and a good dividend is a reason to hold. 

41
Avatar for doctor dave

But why are they buying back shares rather than paying down the £100M debt? 

39
Avatar for TEIN

Morning Revs, Doctor Dave, 

Re PayPoint (LON:PAY) Panmure Liberium increase FY27 EPS forecast by 5% and FY26 debt forecast by 63%, both as a result of the buyback announcement.

24
Avatar for chumba

Bring back a daily podcast!

9
Avatar for Silver Moon

No need to, you can follow PS if that's what you want.

17
Avatar for Disco Dan

You can say please! 

10
Avatar for Rusty2

Really??

5
Get the free newsletter