Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 20 Mar 2025) - PRES, BMY, TUNE, CAML, HSW, CWK, FSJ, ARB, WIX, ECEL, COST

20th Mar by Graham Neary

64 comments 5737 reads

Good morning! The Agenda is now complete.

1.30pm: let's wrap it up there, thank you.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Prudential (LON:PRU) (£20.3bn)	FY24 Results	2024 performance: in line. New business profit +11%. Dividend +13%. Outlook: growth of 10%+.
Investec (LON:INVP) (£3.3bn)	Trading Statement	Adj. EPS -4% to +4%. Basic EPS -30% to -36% (previous year saw gain from merger with Rathbones).
Cranswick (LON:CWK) (£2.6bn)	Upgraded Targets	TU: in line. New targets include mid single digit organic growth, upper teens ROCE, <2x leverage.	AMBER (Megan) This is a wonderfully high quality company with ambitions to tighten up the quality metrics even further. But with slower growth forecasts than we’ve seen of late, I am worried that the valuation has become a bit stretched.
Energean (LON:ENOG) (£1.54bn)	FY Results	Production +24% to 153kboed. Revenue +25%. All 2025 operations guidance reiterated.
Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY) (£472m)	Trading Update	FY Feb 2025 ahead of consensus.	AMBER/GREEN (Graham) A great little update with all of Bloomsbury's divisions trading well. I leave my moderately positive stance unchanged.
Wickes (LON:WIX) (£407m)	Full Year Results	Adj. PBT of £43.6m at upper end of exps. Weak consumer demand. Outlook: in line. £20m buyback.	AMBER (Mark) The upper end of consensus is still down on the previous year. Having risen 23% YTD, this no longer looks good value in this sector, especially when the onerous leases are accounted for.
Crest Nicholson Holdings (LON:CRST) (£390m)	Trading Update	Encouraging start. Outlook: in line. Housing sector remains susceptible to weak consumer.
Petrotal (LON:PTAL) (£340m)	FY Results	2024 sales & production 17,558 & 17,785 bopd, slightly above guidance. Excellent start to 2025.
Costain (LON:COST) (£285m)	Framework award	Chosen to deliver infrastructure for Urenco (uranium enrichment). Contracts over at least 3 years.	GREEN (Graham) [no section below] No numbers are given in relation to this project. Some indication of likely revenues would have been helpful, and/or that it might have a positive impact on forecasts. The CEO says " this new role is an example of our strategic focus on growth in strong markets and building a resilient customer mix." But it was already known that Costain provides services like this in the civil nuclear sector. Without any indication of the specific significance of this award, I'm afraid the announcement comes across as being purely a PR exercise.
Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML) (£278m)	FY…

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af20001

20th Mar

Looks like it must be an error, if you hover over the individual ranks, momentum for example has -21 over the last 30 days, which doesn't tally with the chart at all.

Rusty2

It is not just the share price, that affects momentum, profits do as well. M&G (LON:MNG) Results have been added now and they are a loss, for 2024.

I don't think it is an error.

JimMcLad

I have it showing as Neutral not Junk. Damage has been done by a drop in Value rank of 58 over last 30 days. Can’t help as to why I’m afraid other than revenue estimates are way down – not a stock I’m familiar with.

It is because the 2024 results are showing a large loss.

Charles Mitchell

I am afraid I am a sceptic. I fail to see why 3I would trade at a premium-and 56% seems extreme- based on a large holding in a potentially vulnerable to competition retailer. Far better and safer Investment trusts out there.

Tommy H

This sounds like a job for PlanetX as it is Sheffield Mafia territory, its on the way into town coming south from the M1

Stephen L

Dividend yield is showing as blank for M&G (LON:MNG) too, I think something is wrong on Stocko

jjis

Hi Graham, on Bloomsbury you say: "I think I can leave my AMBER/GREEN stance unchanged today. This is a
fine company but can we get excited about it at this valuation? Maybe
yes, if its M&A activity turns it into a compounding machine?"

I would say the recent weakness is more of an opportunity and would say GREEN myself as it is already a compounding machine. It's being offered at a fairly average 14x next years earnings for a top quality stock / management, although as a long term holder I am probably biased, here is something from last years Report & Accounts. Compound Income Score =73 & Shareholder Yield Score of 68 before any upgrades from today.

Which dividend figure do you mean, l have 2 showing on my screen. It is due next week.

The change is because the results have been updated on Stockopedia. I can't see anything wrong, they posted a large loss, which is what Stockopedia are now using.

In the top summary the ttm yield is 0

And in the dividend section all years prior to 2025E are blank

timarr

RE: M&G (LON:MNG)

I can't see anything wrong, they posted a large loss, which is what Stockopedia are now using.

Meanwhile in the real world most analysts think M&G increased their profits and beat expectations.

The loss is a figment of IFRS 17, but dumb software doesn't understand that, unlike all us smart humans ...

As Graham said yesterday "The £643m loss in “short-term fluctuations in investment returns” was caused by rising yields, rising interest rates and rising equity values. M&G hedged itself against falling rates and falling equity markets, but this meant that it incurred a loss when the opposite happened."

sparkler

But the big elephant in the room is that Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY) has gained its success through two 'once in a generation' authors (JK Rowling and Sarah J Maas). You could argue that it is due to the publisher's skill that they signed them both up, or you could say that lightening just happened to strike twice.

I really want to love Bloomsbury but what always puts me off is the abject failure to gain any real traction in academic publishing despite multiple acquisitions and plenty of investment. Maybe the profits from the two famous authors will just keep rolling in anyway and so the shares will continue to perform, but I would love to see some the academic side start to motor to give me the confidence to jump back in to the shares.

As Graham said yesterday ...

As said elsewhere:

The asset manager and life insurer grew its adjusted operating profit by 5 per cent in 2024 to £837mn. This was 9 per cent ahead of consensus estimates of £770mn. (Investors Chronicle)

M&G has seen profits rise by 5 per cent annually as the firm’s cost cuts start to take hold. In its full-year results for 2024, M&G reported profit before tax of £837mn, up from £797mn the previous year. (FT)

UK investment management firm M&G has adopted a progressive dividend policy following a 5% increase in pre-tax profits and "resilient" operating capital generation of £933m. (Investment Week)

M&G’s full year results delivered a big profit beat as cost actions improved the profitability of its asset management division. M&G reported a 5% rise in underlying operating profit to £837mn (Hargreaves Lansdown)

Fund manager M&G today reported annual profit that beat City forecasts, helped by management’s ongoing drive to improve efficiency (interactive investor).

Etc, etc.

But we do our own research and don't take any notice of pundits, don't we?

Sorry, l don't know what screen you are in, l can't read most of it. l don't that on my screen. TTM? the results have just come out.
This is what l have.

OK, l see what screen you mean now. That was before the results were updated on the system. Is it possible it is showing 0 on the TTM, because that dividend has not been declared yet?

Lord Gnome

Thanks to all for your input. Looks like an error on dividend and a misunderstanding of the accounts. The Stocko systems can’t handle mark to market differentials on hedges affecting IFRS profits. I won’t panic sell just yet.

The Stocko systems can’t handle mark to market differentials on hedges affecting IFRS profits.

Tbh I thought they did. Could be a data error. But by and large the results were well received - some disappointment that the dividend wasn't increased more and about the scale of net outflows. All balanced against the increasingly effective cost cutting.

It's very complex, but it really needs to see net flows reversing to get any postive momentum. But you could say that about any UK fund manager.

I'm happy to carry on holding - I've received 86p in dividends since I bought near the bottom in 2020 at 91p. Wish all my boring investments were this successful.

rmillaree

M&G (LON:MNG)

it is noticeable that the book value per share has shown material decline - from 278p per share in 2021 to 136p per share in 2024. could the erosion in book value be an issue when it comes to the calcs ?

Shark trader

this company looks debt laden with 2 billion in debt and price at near previous high so i have shorted it today. it has 4x debt against profits which is not a good sign

I doubt it triggered the dramatic overnight change in Stockrank, given it's been going on for some time, presumably due to the general outflows from UK fund managers.

If you're looking at individual stocks then Stockranks are a departure point, not a destination. Generally it's better to use them outside of results season when they're unlikely to be impacted by data errors. And, of course, on individual stocks they're often not a useful guide to the future performance.

Of course, soon the robots will be charge so data entry issues will be a thing of the past.

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 20 Mar 2025) - PRES, BMY, TUNE, CAML, HSW, CWK, FSJ, ARB, WIX, ECEL, COST

Companies Reporting

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Graham Neary

64 comments

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