Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 27 Feb 2025) - AVAP, RR., MACF, TW., JUP, CVSG, PPHE

27th Feb by Graham Neary

63 comments 6209 reads

Good morning! It has been a busy week for updates, let's see what's in store for us today.

And we'll kick things off with a backlog section from Mark on AVAP.

Spreadsheet that accompanies this report: updated to 14/2/2025.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
London Stock Exchange (LON:LSEG) (£61.3bn)	Final Results	Total rev +5.7%, adj EPS +12.2%. Equity FCF of £2.2bn. 2025 exps for >£2.4bn FCF, higher margins.
CRH (LON:CRH) (£54.6bn)	Final Results	Rev +2%, net income +15% with higher margins. 2025 outlook +ve, w/ “supportive underlying trends”.
Rolls-Royce Holdings (LON:RR.) (£53.6bn)	Final Results	Adj op profit +54% to £2.5bn, FCF of £2.4bn. Net cash £475m. 2025 guidance for £2.7-£2.9bn FCF.	AMBER (Roland) [no section below] A strong set of results, with £2.4bn of free cash flow allowing management to end the year in a net cash position. “Commercial optimisation” is credited for improving operating margins across the group to an overall figure of 15.4%. Outlook positive, driven by improving aftermarket performance in Civil Aero and Defence in particular. 2028 guidance upgraded to £4.2-£4.5bn FCF and 18%-21% ROCE (versus 13.8% in FY24). With the stock on a P/E of >30, I’m neutral but impressed by progress.
HALEON (LON:HLN) (£35.8bn)	Final Results	Org rev growth +5%, adj op profit +9.8%. FCF of £1.9bn. 2025 outlook for org revenue +4%-6%.
Aviva (LON:AV.) (£14.1bn)	Final Results	GWP +11.9% to £12.2bn, adj op profit +20% to £1,767m. Dividend +6.9% to 35.7pps.
WPP (LON:WPP) (£8.3bn)	Prelim Results	Underlying rev -1% LFL. Adj op profit +2% LFL, margin 15.0%. Divi held. 2025 outlook H2 weighted.
St James's Place (LON:STJ) (£6.2bn)	Final Results	Adj net profit +14% to £447.2m, net inflows £4.3bn, y/e FUM £190.2bn. Dividend -25% to 18p.
Howden Joinery (LON:HWDN) (£4.6n)	Final Results	Rev +0.5% to £2,322m, op profit -0.3% to £339m. 2025 outlook “challenging”. Targeting mkt share.
Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW.) (£4.1bn)	Final Results	2024 new homes -2.3% to 10,593, op profit -11.5%. ASP -1.5%. 2025 outlook in line with market exps.	AMBER/GREEN (Roland) [no section below] TW delivered an improved sales rate from a reduced number of sites last year but now seems to be positioning for a return to growth. The order book at 23 Feb was 8,021 homes, up from 7,402 last year and pricing is now said to be flat YoY. Net cash of £565m is…

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RJS89

27th Feb

Rolls-Royce Holdings (LON:RR.) officially a ten-bagger since oct 2022!

yes, i passed on it lol

JSLDUK

Given the relatively small size of foxtons (market cap) and number of stores this could impact them?
When a similar thing happened at McDonald’s a number of employees came forward to confirm similar things happened to them.

Mark

With your experience do you see any others in this sector that do justify investment?

The Phoenix

Thanks Graham appreciate your efforts.

doctor dave

Time Finance (LON:TIME) Hi Rusty where did you see that? I don;t see it on the Stocko page:

Wow now that's what I call service haha!! Time Finance (LON:TIME)

If only all my idle enquiries resulted in a same-day RNS followed by a phone call to the Finance Director for clarification!!

Rusty2

Hi Dave, It is on the net profit forecasts. It seems the previous forecasts were incorrectly stated on here.

raggedtp

I hold NextEnergy Solar Fund (LON:NESF) @ 32% discount and 12.9% yield, Foresight Environmental Infrastructure (LON:FGEN) @ 34% discount and 10.9% yield and SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust (LON:SEIT) @ 45% discount and 12.6% yield. Even safer is Bluefield Solar Income Fund (LON:BSIF) which this morning had reasonable results but is now @ c. 30% disc + 10+% yield. The frustration is evident in all. Do read the Bluefield Solar Income Fund (LON:BSIF) RNS. Sales are being made in the secondary market that show individual NAVs are not overblown. Most prices really started to slide with the interest rates going up and they did have to increase the discount rate on which their NAVs were judged. But this has been done and factored in. And now central rates have been going down for a while, but NONE of them have adjusted their discount rates back down yet. Eventually they must, which will make NAVs rise. I know I'm talking my book, but, given these are all diversified to some extent, whether by technology or geography, and, pace the dark, still winter the northern Europe has experienced this last year, their incomes are reasonably predictable and even, in some cases index-linked, is it likely we will see such high income opportunities again? I've already had one bought out in the last year. The Boards are all having to pay attention to offers now. If these all get bought out/taken private in the next year or so, where will anyone find such high and rising income again?

Bouden54

Can anyone explain in simple terms while all the renewable ITs have been battered over the last year? I understand the earlier sell-off was all about higher rates, but rates haven't really moved over the last year so there is clearly another factor at play. Sentiment to all things ESG has clearly taken a dive, but this in itself should have no impact on their underlying cashflows.

GreyInvestor

The discount to NAV is 27.5% on Greencoat UK Wind (LON:UKW)

Wind speeds are forecast to fall by 10% in the summer over the next 20 - 30 years, according to the latest AI calculations and global warming assumptions.

But...offshore wind is now 50% the cost of gas. Onshore is 25%. That's a huge margin of safety. Greencoat UK Wind (LON:UKW) is about 50% on shore.

Solar is mid priced. It all depends upon whether it is subsidy free. You have to watch for subsidies that are being phased out over the next decade. I'm not sure what the position is. I've only researched wind so far.

Wind turbine blade efficiency is improving, thanks to better software.

In summary, yes there are issues, yes, the company has downgraded wind forecasts. But in my view there is sufficient safety baked into everything, thanks to the huge discounts on offer.

DWit199

Stocko defines Net Profit as:

"... the profit reported net of all taxes, interest and expenses. Often referred to as the 'bottom line' and used to calculate per share earnings"

If that is the case, the stocko data table for Analyst Forecasts can't be correct as it shows a reduction in net profit and an increase in eps. If net profit goes down (and net profit is the figure used to calculate eps) then eps should go down in proportion, unless the shares in issue has changed... or perhaps I have misunderstood the table.

Time Finance (LON:TIME)

Time Finance (LON:TIME) it seems the figures are correct now but were not before. Where did their data provider get £7.2m net profit from?

Seems £7.2m is profit before tax not the net profit.

Dodds98

I've been thinking about taking up a starter position in Greencoat UK Wind (LON:UKW) along with an attractive 9% yield I believe the Trump effect across the pond will strengthen Europe's position in being world leading in renewables. Keep a close eye on this sector.

In the Cavendish table that Dojosan posted the 7.2 is PBT(reported). It looks as though somebody mixed up pbt and earnings.

I'd be very sceptical of forecasts which try to calculate what wind speeds will be in 20-30 years.

Went to a big Invesco macro meeting today few points off top of my head they aren't to worried about tariffs they see them as a one off inflationary hit as prices will rebase after a year, they see deportation of illegal immigrants as a possible big inflation issue.

If Trump deports 2 million people this will make jobs market even tighter meaning wages go up further as competition for staff goes up.

The other thing of note mentioned is China spending over 8% of gdp on the military this is reason US is worried about then as it used to be very low but they have really ramped up spending last 2-3 years.

They prefer equal weighted S&P 500 tracker, China very cheap now could be time to get in, Europe should be decent if Ukraine resolved, If mag 7 start to drop money should recycle into UK and Europe.

Talked about different permatations of 60/40 Portfolio best outcome although still negative was 60% in value share, 40% sub 3 year duration bonds.

Well, I think it is partly that they are simply Investment Trusts, which are out of favour, and also not simply traditonal ITs that are aggregations of other publicly listed shares which can be valued daily. You could say they are trying to do something harder. I could show you similar discounts (if not quite such high yields) in Private Equity and specialist Commercial and Healthcare Real Estate Trusts. As Charles Mitchell over on the Investment Trust discussion thread would say, go to https://www.theaic.co.uk/ and set up a watchlist of these and you'll see. I think it's all too challenging for UK retail punters, who effectively set the price when Fund Managers are down on UK shares and therefore doubly so on 'alternatives'. Quite how investing in a basket of real assets with largely predictable income is harder than, say, bitcoin or a mining company in Africa, is beyond me, though.

Lochinver

Unreliable, evasive Board with a lack of candor and integrity ?

chelsea

interesting positive candle on the chart today. High volume, new low (for this downwave) with long tail but closed near the high !

Thank you for your informative reply raggedtp. They look perfect for what I want a section of my funds to do. The hard part is they look to good to be true.

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 27 Feb 2025) - AVAP, RR., MACF, TW., JUP, CVSG, PPHE

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Graham Neary

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