Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 30 Jan 2025) - SOM, TPFG, NFG, MUL, KETL, FEVR, SAGA, KMK, CAM, RCDO

30th Jan by Graham Neary

66 comments 7070 reads

Good morning!

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1.15pm: we've run out of time now, cheers!

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Shell (LON:SHEL) (£157bn)	Fourth quarter press release	2024 “another year of strong financial performance”. 4% divi increase, $3.5bn buyback.
3i (LON:III) (£36.8bn)	Q3 performance update	Total return 20% for nine months to Dec 2024. NAV rises from 2261p (Sep) to 2457p (Dec).
BT (LON:BT.A).A (£14.3bn)	Q3 TU	“On track to deliver our financial outlook for this year. Year-to-date adj. rev -3%, adj. EBITDA +2%.
Sage (LON:SGE) (£13.4bn)	TU	Reiterate guidance for the full year. Q1 revenue +10%.
St James's Place (LON:STJ) (£5.0bn)	2024 New Business Inflows & FUM	“Strong final quarter”, “successful year”. New charging structure on track for H2 2025. FUM £190bn.
Airtel Africa (LON:AAF) (£4.9bn)	Q3 Results	Year-to-date revenue down 5.8%, EBITDA down 11.9%. Affected by currency devaluation.
Serco (LON:SRP) (£1.5bn)	Acquires leading US defence business	Price is ~£264m in cash.
Wizz Air Holdings (LON:WIZZ) (£1.4bn)	Q3 FY25 Results	Load factor 90.3%. Rev +10%. Loss-making (grounding of 20% of its fleet, FX). Net debt €5.1bn.
Future (LON:FUTR) (£983m)	Appointment of CEO	An internal hire, he has been with Future for over 20 years.
Greencore (LON:GNC) (£810m)	TU	Outlook is in line. Unprecedented labour cost challenge. Committed to offsetting it in full.
Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR) (£768m)	US Strategic Partnership with Molson Coors	Network of distributors/customers. MC invests £71m in FEVR, FEVR to buy back £71m of its shares.	AMBER/GREEN (Graham) Very exciting deal to take advantage of the opportunity to grow market share in the US. A little expensive in P/E terms but worth it in my view.
Auction Technology (LON:ATG) (£740m)	AGM Statement	Trading in Q1 is consistent with FY25 outlook.
CVS (LON:CVSG) (£737m)	Half Year TU	H1 LfLs -1.1%, softer conditions. Tax changes to cost £11m before mitigation. Outlook in line.
Alfa Financial Software Holdings (LON:ALFA) (£608m)	Q4 TU	FY24 op profit +13% to £34m, 5% ahead of exps. Rev in line, costs lower. Well positioned for 2025.
Discoverie (LON:DSCV) (£603m)	Q3 TU	In line. Sales for Q3 flat year-on-year…

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Rusty2

30th Jan

I think it is important, to know the reasons, why a stock is rated red, writers don't always get it right, they may have misunderstood something. Yu (LON:YU.) was rated Amber/Red and that has been one of biggest multi-baggers, in the last few years. See Ed's articles about it.

The comments have changed, because quite a few small cap commentators, are no longer here. I don't know how many comments there are on Paul's site, as l'm not a subscriber.

Monty Carlo

I'm afraid Stocko subscribers are neither here nor there.

If you were to look at the shareholder register of a listed company you can broadly tell which shares are held within in SIPPs/ISAs because they will be in nominee accounts. It is far from all, and overseas investors can't use ISAs/SIPPs either.

Most importantly - you can bet that management won't be able to shelter all of their share awards in ISAs and SIPPs....there are limits to annual pension contributions.

Then throw in property sale proceeds and inheritances - it can take many years to get those lumps of cash into your ISA. You don't have to be a billionaire to get hit by income/dividend tax.

Charles Mitchell

I hold- showing a loss at the moment though better than it was. I bought after the Britvic bid expecting something to happen re FEVR. Taken time, and not sure anything will happen re a takeover for 3-4 years. But this announcement today does resolve expanding in the USA without financial pain.

NewInvestor1972

Anyone else still in Cavendish Financial (LON:CAV) ?

So dull watching it tick down constantly but it just seems really cheap and if the doom and gloom on uk small caps passes, as it surely will surely they are well placed to benefit from this.

not sure if they are more of a lifestyle company than a real business, 10% down and considering buying something a bit more interesting

Silver Moon

Sparkler, I agree with you here as each year I Bed and ISA across from my trading account and see the time coming when all of my shares will be in my (and Christine's) ISA. If anybody should be shamed it is the Chancellor who could yet reduce the tax allowance on dividends earned from the paltry £500 further.

It is reported in the Media today that a certain Scottish judge doesn't care much for the importance of North Sea Oil, basically placing two undeveloped oilfields on ice.

I don't know, I pulled out selling the last shares last March at 13.8 pence thus saving my bacon but I do know that when I took up the Tender Offer by RockRose Energy the share price subsequently shot up, netting the company a healthy profit from its own shares. Anything can happen on the stock market and experience can only warn.

abtan

Many thanks to Graham and the team for such an in-depth report today.

Harry Hindsight

Just Googled (sorry MindSeeked) "blackouts in the UK". Not sure why I did that :(

LSL Property Services (LON:LSL) (market cap = £300m)

I've bought heavily in the last year and I thought today's update was excellent. It completely smashed my own forecasts and I remain cautiously optimistic for the year ahead.

Some very brief thoughts:

1 - Financial Services
New Lending market share up to 11.6%, an upward trend over the last 2 years.

For context the latest Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) (LON:MAB1) (market cap =£400m) market share equivalent figure was 8.2%, albeit this was reported in their half-year report and they operate somewhat differently to LSL (for now.)

2 - Surveying & Valuation Division

Last year the group decided to retain staff so that they were prepared when the market returned to normal.

It looks like that decision is now bearing fruit, with Underlying Operating Profit Margins of 23% compared with 8% last year.

3 - Group Operating Profit %

16% for the year, implying underlying operating profit of £27.7m
For context these figures were 7.1% and £10.3m in 2023.

4 - Director Buy

Finally, a director purchase today, the first one in a year.
It wasn't that large (£25k), but it's better than no purchases at all.
Fingers crossed more directors buy soon.

The story was 'what can they do with their overnight delivery network' and kicking a main competitor in Menzies this could be good for them. Great intel and a good read - tks. Sorry should just have ticked lol.

rmillaree

£SLS

cheers abtan - info as useful as always.

Its a nice refreshing change to see a company that exactly the same number of sahres in issue as 11 years ago - now if only they had been buying back 5% of the shares every year for the last 11 years !! the shareprice may have actually gone somewhere had they done that ?

ken mitchell

Yes I still hold Cavendish Financial (LON:CAV. Currently I’m down7% after averaging up! . Don’t know why the share has turned down recently. Unless it’s because of bad news leaking Cavendish Financial (LON:CAV) looks very cheap now. Graham gave it a green rating at 11.5p (up 7% that day) when analysing their most recent Results. Note though the bit about it being run for the benefit of the Managers. As the leading AIM broker, the AIM index waking up and some IPOs at long last could see the share rocket. I’ll be holding until the next update. Here’s the link to Graham’s commentary:-

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

intuitive6191

"I appreciate most of the value of the Stocko subscription lies in the data and so effectively the SMR is bundled in for free and probably doesnt have the resources to do more."

I think that was what was envisaged by Stockopedia when it started, that subscribers would drill down remorselessly into data and presumably want to discuss this in incredible detail on an attached forum.

Not so

I think it must have come as a bit of a shock to Stocko when its main forum developed into a small cap environment where investors would post on all sorts of stuff, to the point where some subscribers were apparently oblivious to any other threads.

Some subscribers would post openly that the only reason they did subscribe was for the SCVR.

I would guess that the recent changes and more data driven articles are an attempt to stop the tail wagging the dog and to bring Stocko back to its original concept. Just a guess.

TEIN

Hi Portugull, as the Two Paul's discussed in last week's Vox weekly review, HM Gov always arrive at the right policy decision once all other options have been exhausted.

John LA

31st Jan

I have worked with analysts and their models they are detailed, a 3 yr horizon, regularly tweaked to reflect qrtly results and changes in the business environment. The guys & gals at stockpedia do a great daily job, of sorting out the runners and their prospects. The subscribers comments are for most part are hugely insightful, generously sharing their experience. The one thing that would be helpful to me would be providing a commentary on why the stock ranks have moved.

Thank you to the stockpedia team you do a great job

Patrickmylnetrade

6th Feb

I hold and got paid a juicy dividend today ,so looking forward to any upside

Which stock, might that be?

7th Feb

Sorry Rusty this was supposed to be a reply, but must have just hit the comments box. Smiths News (LON:SNWS)

It wa thoughts on the comments about smiths news stealing market share…potentially from rival

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 30 Jan 2025) - SOM, TPFG, NFG, MUL, KETL, FEVR, SAGA, KMK, CAM, RCDO

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Graham Neary

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