Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 13 May 2025) - MIDW, WHR, TET, REVB, OTB, MACF, IQE, ANG, AOM, RST

6:02am by Graham Neary

27 comments 3830 reads

Good morning! After yesterday's gains, the S&P 500 is now 200 points higher than it was on 31st March, just before the tariff shock.

The Agenda is complete.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Carnival (LON:CCL) (£19.8bn)	$1 billion Senior Unsecured Notes	Redeems nearly $1bn of notes due 2026 (7.625%), replaces them with 5.875% notes due 2031.
DCC (LON:DCC) (£5.0bn)	Full Year Results	Adj. op profit +4.9% to £704m. FY March 2026: “good operating profit growth on a continuing basis”.
Bytes Technology (LON:BYIT) (£1.33bn)	Audited Results	Invoiced income +15%, op profit +17% (£66m). FY26: “Confidence for continued strong growth”.
Renew Holdings (LON:RNWH) (£629m)	Interim Results	Rev +13%, PBT +5% (£31m). “Confident… to navigate current headwinds and deliver exps”.
Wickes (LON:WIX) (£474m)	Trading Update	Strong start to 2025. Rev +6.9% y/y. Comfortable with market forecasts for 2025 adjusted PBT.
On Beach group (LON:OTB) (£422m)	Interim Results	Volume +11%, ahead of market. Confident in delivering expectations (adj. PBT £38.2m).	GREEN (Roland) Today’s results are in line, but suggest OTB is enjoying strong booking momentum and potentially gaining market share. With the peak summer season ahead, I’m going to leave our positive view unchanged in light of strong booking momentum and my belief that continued growth could translate into improved profitability.
Warehouse Reit (LON:WHR) (£403m)	Extension of PUSU Deadline (yesterday)	SP down 13% yest. to 94.9p There was a 115p indicative proposal from Blackstone but "several matters” have arisen from due diligence, including contrasting views on the value of a development project.	PINK (AMBER/GREEN) (Graham) This once again trades at a highly material discount to NAV. It's now cheaper by £80 million compared to what Blackstone considered paying for it. That should price in plenty of bad news.
Restore (LON:RST) (£336m)	Trading Update	Confident of achieving full year expectations, with all divisions expected to deliver higher adjusted operating profit. Two acquisitions were completed in April, one of them immaterial but the other costing nearly £8m: an on-site shredding company based in Surrey.	AMBER/GREEN (Graham) [no section below] This provider of business services (notably document storage and document destruction) reassures investors of its prospects both organically and inorganically. Profit margins are fine (they target an adj. margin of 20%, from the current 17.7%) and net debt is ok at £89m, with a leverage multiple at 1.6x.…

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The Phoenix

8:33am

Agreed Tim I would say the biggest three drivers bar complete black swans like Russia invading Ukraine are interest rates, inflation and QE/QT, if its interest rates heading down and QE should push up most assets, rising rates and QT your probably better standing aside or being in gold and short dated quality bonds.

I think also it is becoming apparent with "The great Boaster" Trump he will back off when his chaos starts to reflect back on him every time.

Its now all great with China and to deflect his dumb ass decisions he quickly needs to invent a new enemy its now us nasty Europeans again who are ripping off the US.

Harry Hindsight

8:43am

TDS

dscollard

8:53am

Though there is signal in the noise if you filter appropriately: some work I did 15 April which highlighted a capitulation low based on the number of UK stocks hitting 52 Week lows: the big spike in the below - (as a matter of record I posted it here with that viewpoint and a comment "there's never a bell") -

These precede breadth thrusts as an indicator of the impending recovery (it's work by Zweig originally) . I know you have much deeper insights on the behavioural nature of these things

There is some science to timing markets albeit it's often considered pseudo or dark arts but it has a reproducibility that is statistically relevant : net- net it informed my buying despite the macro doom and gloom which is frequently largely narrative and often semi quantitative

Kentspec

8:58am

Would be good to have the teams thoughts on Diaceutics (LON:DXRX) please

JASVFS

9:05am

I'm not a fisherman but 409,000 members of MyAD Europe's largest fishing club are, that number is up 86% which as holders of Angling Direct shares is a pleasing rise to see. Good numbers today as noted by Graham in their FY results, rev up, margins up, adjusted profit up, it's a change for us to be considering doubling up on small cap shares, rather than doubling down. I hope you might get chance to cover it on another busy day Graham.

Graham Neary

9:44am

there is a section on ANG being written JASVFS (but not by me!) G

Fire Juggler

11:53am

Looks like Revolution Beauty (LON:REVB) see above, is dragging down -6% Warpaint London (LON:W7L) - I hold- on no news. Might be a buy the dip opportunity as they seem on the face of it (geddit?) similar but are actually quite different companies with different 'profitable growth' strategies and FCF.

Probably not helped much by US/China tariff strategy. A reminder since April - if you have been away over Easter; Up 34% , up 145%, up 120% (de minimis/Temu) down to 30% , down to 54% (de minimis/Temu) . Could be anywhere from 0% to 200% by the time you read this.

Anything could happen. Time to put a brave (warpaint) face on...

boringchess

Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) now admitting that customers personal data was stolen in the attack too. They're being extorted with threats to leak the data. News out in the last few hours but no further movement on share price (guess its not surprising to some extent, maybe already priced in)

Last time I was in there I couldn't buy a shirt because they didn't keep it in stock in shop in the right size, and they told me there was no solution as the only way to order it was online which was still not taking orders (this was a week or two ago maybe)

Bit insane the whole situation.

Chrisp

11:55am

Kinovo (LON:KINO) received a bid yesterday at 87.5p from Sureserve and I am wondering why the shares are sitting below 80p - any suggestions? I hold Kinovo so pleased with the bid

12:01pm

Thank you for your review on Angling Direct Megan, I agree with all your points but had bought a few more before I read it. We're slightly ahead and will stick with it to see if those overpaid directors can turn the growing revenue into worthwhile profits.

djlcollinge

12:21pm

Angling Direct (LON:ANG). "Management insists on reporting heavily adjusted EBITDA as the main profit figure, which rose 20% to £3.4m". That would raise immediate concerns with me. Pointless metric

doctor dave

1:17pm

Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) can't help thinking though that 20% off the share price is rather a lot for this kind of temporary glitch. I'm adding at this level....

threeputt

1:55pm

I also hold Kinovo (LON:KINO) can only imagine it's mms maintaining a bit of doubt, personally I'm confident, also a chance of Tim Scott upping their own bid they made back around 40

shanklin100

2:31pm

Given the complete silence to date from Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) as to the extent of the cyber problem, and how long it may take to fix it, describing the situation as a “temporary glitch” may be massively optimistic.

The company has an obligation to keep the market properly informed as to the extent of the cyber incident business impact and is completely failing to do so. if Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) are taking their reporting obligations seriously (I imagine they are) one might reasonably conclude they are completely clueless currently re how they resolve the cyber problem and the potential financial impact of the situation

3:52pm

I admire your optimism Doctor Dave... I'm not so convinced, the price is still higher than it was as recently as March isn't it? It was trading at a pretty high valuation recently (for the UK market). Now we've seen a tiny little pull back but the incident is still on going and so little is known about the impact...

Presumably at minimum they will have much higher CapEx costs going forward (not to mention insurance...), they could face compensation claims from consumers over the breach, they're likely to face fines (although history suggests an initially huge fine could be reduced significantly to a more sensible number), and of course there is gonna be a lot of lost revenue (orders still not possible online and many products ONLY buyable online).

Could see a profit warning next?

Unclear what mess is caused in pricing/purchasing/logistics by throwing a big spanner in the works like this too, no doubt they must be operating wildly inefficiently with no online sales happening and it could be difficult for them to just instantaneously reach a happy optimised equilibrium when they're back open for business online, badly optimised -> bad margins?

It seems like a very small pullback for the level of incompetence on display, basically :)

4:10pm

Well, you may be right, but given that cyber attacks are not direct managerial incompetence (unlike eg Argentex (LON:AGFX) and are more of an occupational hazard these days, I would expect that in a years' time, this episode will be long forgotten and this price will look favourable....

af20001

4:20pm

While it might prove to be a buying opportunity when looking back, with online ordering still offline, can we be sure the hit to Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) won't be greater then 20% in lost profits?

4:21pm

The incompetence is not just in the breach itself but in the lack of resolution since, which is a far bigger indication of genuine incompetence not just of a single individual (which is all it really takes for something bad to happen, fair enough), but a more structural and serious problem in the business itself that will take a lot of CapEx to fix, over (best case) a couple of years of transformation, probably.

Trident

4:51pm

You'd be surprised at how long it takes. The external cyber agency will take a decent time to track where and what systems have been accessed and try to clean them, and that's after the time they impose any additional sanitation precautions on systems, which may involve further software monitoring tools being applied throughout the system. So they will shut down any systems that they think are potentially problematic before bringing them back on line, to avoid a trespasser who may be still lurking in the system. This will mean passwords have to be changed, and with a great number of users, that will take time too. It takes a lot of man hours, and they may have no definitive single cause that they can pin down as allowing the intruders, but have suspicions about what may have compromised the system.

Unfortunately, the weakest part in any 'secure' system is the human operator, and if they have been phished in some way to give their details, external agents can get in. Also, if there are weaknesses in the threat defence systems, this can give them opportunities particularly within online purchasing systems to find a way in.

If the external agent is claiming a ransom of some kind they will make themselves known, but paying them is no guarantee that they will give anything back and they may just take a copy and sell it on the dark web, even if they are paid.

The fact is that sadly there is massive targeting of companies. Its a huge problem, and does not necessarily mean incompetence of those affected.

Stop Loss

5:07pm

Hi fellow traders: Is there a method of monitoring and recording the daily incremental rise or fall of a share price? It`s easy enough to see on a graph, of course, but how about isolating it to a daily figure? Maybe I`m looking too hard, but I can`t see anything that lets me do this. Any thoughts, please?

Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 13 May 2025) - MIDW, WHR, TET, REVB, OTB, MACF, IQE, ANG, AOM, RST

Companies Reporting

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Graham Neary

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