Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 24 Dec 2024): VTY, WNWD
Good morning and Happy Christmas Eve!
A profit warning and a takeover offer today have provided quite an apt summary of the UK markets in 2024. But for those looking for a bit more festive cheer I would encourage you to read one of the review articles we've published in the last few days:
Graham has published his watchlist, including a review of the ten stocks in his 2024 list and an updated list for 25. You can read that here.
Ed has reviewed the winners and losers in the StockRanks. Click here to read that.
And Mark has provided a poignant summary of 2024 through the eyes of risk. Click here for that.
Companies reporting
| Name (Market Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view |
|---|---|---|---|
Vistry (LON:VTY) (£2.2bn) | Trading update | Profit warning. Delays in expected transactions means FY24 adj PBT now forecast at £250m, from £300m previously | RED/AMBER |
Harworth (LON:HWG) (£550) | Disposal | Completion of the sale of 278-acre site for £53.5m. | |
Windward (LON:WNWD) (£129m) | Takeover offer | All cash offer at 215p per share (47% premium to yesterday’s closing price) which values the company at £216m. | PINK |
Kooth (LON:KOO) (£59m) | New contract | $1.45m pilot contract awarded in the US | |
Roadside Real Estate (LON:ROAD) (£43m) | Final results | Nearly negligible ongoing revenue flat. Profits from discontinued operations of £43m. The company has transitioned to focus on joint ventures. |
Vistry (LON:VTY)
Down 16% - Trading Update (profit warning) - Megan - AMBER/RED
The cynic in me thinks that any company choosing to announce a profit warning on Christmas Eve is doing so in the hope that fewer investors will be around to see it. But as this is the third profit warning from housebuilder Vistry (LON:VTY) since September, this may be more a question of management running out of dates to reveal its steady stream of bad news.
This morning, the company has revealed that a number of agreements which were expected to complete in the current financial year will not be concluded until 2025. That is in addition to the transactions which management has walked away from, deeming commercial terms not favourable enough.
The upshot is that adjusted pre-tax profits will be £250m for the 2024 financial year, down from previous guidance of £300m, while year end net debt is now expected at £200m (compared to a previously forecast net cash position).
Today’s announcement concludes a horrible quarter for Vistry. In September, management revealed accounting problems which had affected 9 of the company’s 300 subsidiaries - problems which stemmed from a slowdown in the housing market. Then, adjusted PBT guidance was revised downwards to £350m.
Then came a second warning when it turned out that the nationwide housing market slowdown was not solely confined to a handful of the company’s operating divisions. And now a third. Profit warnings really do come in threes.
So is that it?
Some of Vistry’s shortfall in 2024 comes from the fact that contracts have taken longer to conclude than previously expected and they will therefore come in 2025. But some of the shortfall comes from the fact that contract terms are not as favourable as management would have liked and so they have walked away, awaiting better market conditions in 2025.
There is hope that these improved conditions might indeed materialise. Base rates are likely to come down at the start of the year which will improve mortgage terms, providing some stimulus for the housing market. Recent outlook reports from the likes of Zoopla have pointed to a better year for UK housing in 2025. Perhaps management has been quite canny in writing off 2024 as a disaster and waiting for better market conditions next year.
Megan’s view:
Compared to some of its UK listed housebuilding peers, Vistry looks like an enticing valuation. Shares are currently trading on less than 7 times forecast earnings, although it should be noted that those forecasts haven’t yet stabilised.
There’s an attractive yield on offer too, but with the balance sheet in worse shape than expected, the dividend maybe isn’t as safe as it once was.
Today’s update doesn’t answer all the questions investors might have on the outlook for the business. Those could be provided in January when management will put out another trading update alongside a call for analysts. I am inclined to stay on the fence until then. RED/AMBER
Windward (LON:WNWD)
Up 42% - takeover offer - Megan - PINK
Another day, another takeover bid for a UK listed company.
Windward is a maritime specialist which offers AI powered ‘decision support’ to help companies manage their supply chains and trading routes. It listed in 2021 and has enjoyed decent demand since then - maritime safety has been a hot topic in the last few years. Revenues were £28m last year and are forecast to be £36m in FY2024.
Today’s takeover offer, which has been recommended by the board, values the business at £216m. Investors will receive 215p per share in cash, which is a 47% premium to the closing price on Monday. The offer is subject to the approval of shareholders who will have the opportunity to vote at a general meeting next year.
And the acquirer is, you guessed it, an American private equity firm. FTV Capital will be buying Windward via its UK fund, Octopus, via a newly set up bidco. The fund has reportedly been eying up Windward for some time because of its “best-in-class maritime AI analytics”.
Megan’s view:
There isn’t an awful lot shareholders can do about this one. Standard recommendations around takeover offers is for shareholders to sell half their shares at the date of the announcement to free up the cash (otherwise there is an opportunity cost which comes from waiting for the deal to mature) and then wait for the deal to complete for the final payout.
That seems like a sensible thing to do in this case. The board is onside, so this looks like a done-deal. Rival bids could perhaps push the share price higher, but that seems unlikely.
But away from the specifics of this case, this is yet another example of the UK market failing to grasp an interesting opportunity.
It’s true Windward hasn’t been an easy company to analyse. It’s loss making, Israeli-based and operates in a novel market. Its shares suffered heavily in its first few years on the market, reaching a nadir below 40p in June 2023. Since then momentum has picked up, but this has been partly fuelled by takeover speculation.
The company hasn’t been especially well capitalised and management failed to prop up its wobbly balance sheet with a cash injection from the market - falling share prices don’t tend to encourage capital raises.
Today’s takeover offer is a premium to the IPO price, so most investors who bought Windward while it has been listed will have made money from the deal. But overall this isn’t a good reflection of the state of the UK markets at the moment. Interesting opportunities in fast growing industries shouldn’t be being snapped up by US private equity. Here’s to hoping for a more positive 2025.
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55 comments
As an aside Tim I know you are pretty clued up on UK financial sectors and started a thread on Abrdn (LON:ABDN) a few months back just wondered if you have a top three financial sector picks for 2025 assuming at some point these UK companies see positive inflows again.
Great to see some of the top table posters having a virtual fireside debate on run up to xmas eve.
Without blowing the proverbial smoke the top 25% of posters on this platform are outstanding and happy to share the knowledge, throw in Wolf's pearls and I can see myself hanging around stocko for a good few years.
Thanks to all the posters on this platform for what you bring to the table hopefully 2025 will be healthy for us all, a kind market and maybe the world at large will see more lasting peace, than the last two years.
10-yr bonds end up at over 4.6% both in the US and UK. 4.7% was the peak. This is not going to plan!
Shock horror! UK shares rally ahead of Xmas. Police have been seen attending the London Stock Exchange to investigate.
HO, HO, HO.
Vistry (LON:VTY. Yet another example where my preferred tactic of always selling on the first bad news works well, Vistry investors could have sold around £9 in October on the day of that first warning. If still keen to hold a housebuilder there are good quality alternatives.
Now the Vistry (LON:VTY) share price has fallen so far those who sold but perhaps now believe the outlook looks better , or the share looks oversold, or whatever, can consider buying back again. Isn’t that far better than holding on after both the first and second warnings and now wondering whether to average down after putting up with (an unnecessary?) 40% loss since that first profits warning.
Separately, money has been wasted buying back their shares ahead of this latest profits warning and share price fall. Buybacks should only be done when the shares are obviously cheap. Next (LON:NXT) is a good example of a user of that sensible tactic.
Well that is precisely the problem with share buybacks, Ken. Management always believe their own company to be 'cheap', but the trouble is that when the market is telling us otherwise the market is often right. I find it staggering that investors go along with the whole 'buyback' idea in the lazy belief that it will put support under the share price and financially engineer earnings uplifts. All fine until the actual business disappoints and the share price crashes anyway. Sometimes you then get the double whammy of the company not having sufficient cash for its day to day operations.
My view. Either invest the surplus cash in growing the business or find a suitable acquisition target. If neither of these are viable then return the cash properly to shareholders with a special dividend.
Always seen buybacks as (generally *) a sign of management failure or lack of ideas or knowledge.
1. If i wanted to buy more of the company, I would buy more shares in the company myself, I do not appreciate someone else doing that for me with my money.
2. The management should have enough knowledge of their own company to use that money to fund a project that will increase the company's performance. this could be by acquisition.
* NXT being an exception.
Buybacks are often a sign of management who want to boost EPS to hit the target in their poorly designed incentive scheme (which a remuneration committee did get past shareholders - so think carefully about where you point the finger and when you last voted).
Well the large US companies do them, do you think their management are failures?
Acquisitions often go wrong, if they are struggling to manage the existing company, adding another is not likely to help.
The directors have bought, millions of £ worth of shares in Vistry (LON:VTY), so they presumably thought it was undervalued. Seems many of the issues have been caused by our new Govt. When will this building program start?
The directors have bought, millions of £ worth of shares in Vistry (LON:VTY), so they presumably thought it was undervalued. Seems many of the issues have been caused by our new Govt. When will this building program start?
You can criticise the government for quite a lot, but hardly for being unable to fix the broken planning system and trigger a housing boom in six months - it's not like flicking a switch. Trying to force through new planning rules on nimby local councils isn't going to be easy. There are signs that the pressures in the planning system are easing. This from Henry Boot (LON:BOOT) earlier this month:
Hallam has seen noticeable improvements in the planning system since the change in Government during the summer. In the year to date, Hallam has secured consents on a total of 2,870 plots (2023: 1,014 plots), of which 2,056 have been achieved since the beginning of September. In addition, Hallam has appeals lodged on 2,189 plots across seven sites and in total has 11,191 plots in the planning system.
A lot of the changed proposed by the government are structural and will take time to come through. All the more reason for them to not talk down the economy ahead of time.
The problems Vistry (LON:VTY) faces are of their own making, although they do seem to be very good at finding external issues to blame them on. At least management have thrown some of their own money into this pit.
timar
My comments were more to do with their negativity, effecting the economy, rather than the planning rules. Instead of a bright new start, it has been doom and gloom, all the way. Then l can't see how the budget will grow the economy, many companies are talking about price increases and reducing staff. If inflation rises then interest rates won't be cut so quickly.
Rents are also soaring, up 9% this year, this is not included some of the inflation figures.
Some of Vistry problems seem to be from delayed or postponed contracts. Also with costs rising some contracts are now uneconomic.
And you could add to this the limited availability of building trades. Any increase in house building may well lead to a rapid cost inflation.
Maybe need bricklayers and carpenters on the dinghy's not just doctors.
Vistry boss: Our affordable homes strategy looks like a winner
The Timeshttps://www.thetimes.com › ... › Companies5 Sept 2024 — The boss of Britain's biggest housebuilder has claimed that his decision to go all-in on building affordable homes could start to look “inspired”
This was the CEO/ Chairman slapping himself on the back in front of the Times’ photographer not long ago.
Personally I find it astonishing that this guy can possibly have any credibility whatsoever remaining when , less than four months later, he has presided over three big profit warnings and the shares have lost almost 60 % of their value.
As for the significant directors’ share purchases made within a day of the first profit warning , which came by all accounts within only two days of the first discovery of accounting/costing/pricing blunders, I dont think I can ever recall a more arrogant and embarrassing move by a CEO who clearly has no idea of what is going on in his business
The idea that the company’s problems over this period of time are anyone’s fault and responsibility other than their own is laughable
That doesn't excuse Vistry (LON:VTY) consistently buying their shares as the price kept hitting new highs
That doesn't excuse Vistry (LON:VTY) consistently buying their shares as the price kept hitting new highs
What doesn't?
I agree with your statement, though. The only thing you can say about this is that the directors spent a fair amount of their own money buying shares, so it seems they believed the equity was worth more than the market did.
They were wrong, of course ...
timarr
Surplus cash belongs to shareholders so should be returned directly to them as a dividend - if shareholders think the shares are cheap they are then perfectly free to use that cash to buy more shares. The key point is that the shareholder should decide this not the company on their behalf!
Surplus cash belongs to shareholders so should be returned directly to them as a dividend - if shareholders think the shares are cheap they are then perfectly free to use that cash to buy more shares
Having given 45% of that dividend to the tax man. No thank you. Buy great companies whose shares compound over time and embrace the buybacks that are making you even more money. If you need spare cash, sell some shares and pay less than 24% in tax since only gains are taxable.
Ken, if you’re reading this, please, please don’t mention Whitbread for the hundredth time. We’ve all heard you. The problem isn’t the buybacks. It’s the vulnerable business.
Obviously this is all about investing in different pools, quality vs value. And I do think value names should focus on dividends. I just don’t own (m)any.
To be honest, this buyback conversation has been done to death here and is about as useful as the posts whinging about the government for all the good it will do: it's simply people shouting at each other in an echo chamber.
Obviously this is all about investing in different pools, quality vs value. And I do think value names should focus on dividends. I just don’t own (m)any.
Multibaggers have a number of interesting characteristics, in general:
If you can find a business growing revenue at over 10% with rising margins and those characteristics it's worth more than a second look. Not many in the UK - Alpha International (LON:ALPH) and Ashtead Technology Holdings (LON:AT.) come to mind.
timarr
Really. Yu (LON:YU.) one of the biggest multi baggers, in the last 3 years, did a large buyback this year.
Alpha International (LON:ALPH) l hold but has done nothing for years, share price wise. Ashtead Technology Holdings (LON:AT.) shares are down considerably. Probably because of our Govt. North Sea policies.
Hi Rusty
Your crystal ball is working well looking backwards, as usual.
What about pointing it forward for a change? What do you think is going to multibag in future?
timarr
Hi timarr,
You have actually beat me to that!
No one really cares about the past or anyone’s past trades.
Tell us something about the future , although to be fair to Rusty, he has made the effort to provide 3 US stocks for 2025.
All the best
Well l have owned Yu (LON:YU.) for over 2 years.
Future multi baggers, that is a good question. Not sure at the moment, there too many uncertainties. Maybe Games Workshop (LON:GAW) if the Amazon deal really takes off. I have listed my top picks for 2025 on Ed's article today.
I expect a US correction at some time next year. After that l see opportunities in the US market.
What are your multibggers?
What are your multibaggers?
Acknowledging that we’re all happy to come across one of these at an early stage in its journey, I think it pays to plan like Geoffrey Boycott, rather than reaching for the moon:
“Don’t go out onto the pitch to score 100, aim for 10. When you get there, target 20…”
Look for companies that you can be confident will deliver 10% growth year after year after year. The UK isn’t the best hunting ground but one only has oneself to blame if one ignores better markets. I don’t expect a single share in the BnB fund to double next year, maybe one or two will, if fortune smiles, as it did on AI beneficiaries this year and last. But I have a high level of confidence in the average growth rate of eps across the fund, without trading, absent a recession. Virtually every holding has been compounding at that rate for more than 10 years, and is the hurdle for entering the fund (outside some cyclical plays and a bit of fun money on stuff like Vistry, maybe!)
What are your multibggers?
Fair question.
Currently - Alphabet (NSQ:GOOG, Apple (NSQ:AAPL), James Latham (LON:LTHM), Cerillion (LON:CER), PayPal Holdings (NSQ:PYPL), Warpaint London (LON:W7L), Meta Platforms (NSQ:META), Pearson (LON:PSON).
This year has been as odd as any - my biggest gainers have been CMC Markets (LON:CMCX), Meta Platforms (NSQ:META) , Trustpilot (LON:TRST), Cairn Homes (LON:CRN), Petershill Partners (LON:PHLL), Garmin (NYQ:GRMN) and PayPoint (LON:PAY).
Of those I might have predicted CMC as a big gainer, the rest I wouldn't have. That's normal I find, I have no idea what will happen in future.
I expect next year to be extremely volatile, I'm more concerned with downside protection than making huge gains, but if pushed I'd go for Wise (LON:WISE), Foxtons (LON:FOXT) and Treatt (LON:TET) - the latter mainly because I still can't believe it hasn't received a takeover offer. But frankly there's so much value in the mid and lower reaches of the UK market we're spoiled for choice.
The US is more difficult. I can't help thinking that there's an indexing effect in play here - the more it grows the more money it attracts. That said the US is home to the best companies, the deepest capital reserves and a pro-business culture that we can only admire from afar. Assuming China doesn't invade I'd go for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYQ:TSM), Alphabet (NSQ:GOOGL) and Palantir Technologies (NSQ:PLTR) .
So I wouldn't go for any of those, if I were you.
timarr
Thanks, l hold a number of those. I lost patience with James Latham (LON:LTHM) held for a number of years. No multibaggers this year, 2 are quite close Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) and Synectics (LON:SNX). Synectics (LON:SNX) was the surprise, only bought in August, has almost doubled.
A lot of ones l had high hopes have gone south like Zotefoams (LON:ZTF) or just treading water. CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) has fallen back quite a bit, like PayPoint (LON:PAY.). I do hold Wise (LON:WISE) but won't buy at this level.
US looks over valued, but there was a bit of a correction, many of the top momentum stocks, are down 10-15%, in the last 2 weeks.
Ed's top trending US folio is down 10%.
Hi Rusty, not aware that Yu (LON:YU.) have ever done a share buyback least of all this year. Could you confirm when was this buyback you mention, thanks.
Yu (LON:YU.) Well that is what it says here: https://uk.marketscreener.com/...
it was mandated at the 2023 AGM.
Thanks. Believe on 17th May 2024 it issued 254,120 shares following g exercise of options and then bought 234,978 to be held in treasury for future option exercises.
They haven’t as yet, unless I’m mistaken, implemented a pure share buyback program, in other words they haven’t bought shares and cancelled them to reduce the shares in issue and thus increased their eps. Thanks for the feedback.
Multibaggers have a number of interesting characteristics, in general:
Certainly not true of the US, where the multibaggers huddle together at the top of the indices, merrily buying back their own shares.
Certainly not true of the US, where the multibaggers huddle together at the top of the indices, merrily buying back their own shares.
Yes, different rules apply there at the moment. Maybe it's a sign the market there is overblown, maybe it's a sign that we're entering an era where we're finally able to reengineer the world around the microprocessor rather than just using it to improve old processes.
Frankly I have no idea, but I'm quite happy to hitch a lift.
And, of course, different rules around dividend taxation in the US.
timarr
Hi BnB,
This is not going to come down very well but I have the impression that the average UK investor does not understand the concept of share buybacks. A brief look at the US market and how buybacks are properly executed (enhancing EPS) will enlighten everyone.
Perhaps the execution of buybacks here in the UK by average CEO’s, managing well below average companies that will not grow faster than the money committed in the buybacks, does not help.
All the best
Yiannos, I was a Fund Manager for plenty long enough to understand all the theoretical merits of buybacks and sure, if the company performs consistently (e.g. Next) buybacks can enhance eps. However they are a dangerous weapon when placed in the hands of senior management at many average companies who have short term agendas to prop up ailing share prices and reach share option triggering eps targets.
I have no doubt that the US has many better businesses (especially in the tech sector) that have utilised buybacks successfully, but let's maybe have this debate again when the US market as a whole has emerged from its current 'bubble ' and many share prices are floundering rather than the 'one way bet' environment they currently occupy.
Here the same-still i am (unfortunately!).
This is exactly what I am saying as well.
I will give an example for people to clearly understand.
Oxford Metrics (LON:OMG)
They have announced a £6m buyback!
This company will not make any way near this figure in 2025 so the buyback is just a deceiving attempt by the management to try and keep the price as high as possible before it goes further down. This is not a buyback-this is turning shareholders cash into toilet paper!
Whether this was a buyback or a dividend or a special dividend or anything else you want to name it the outcome is the same. Buyback announced at 60p and the price is 53p now.
I could name another 100+ UK same cases.
There is nothing better than a buyback but it has to be done when a company grows and there are signs that it will keep doing so Hence the US comes into play here.
Merry Christmas to everyone and your loved ones and have all the health in the world.
All the best
"A brief look at the US market and how buybacks are properly executed (enhancing EPS) will enlighten everyone."
I find that most share buybacks in the US are simply camouflaged management remuneration. I recall one of the fund managers interviewed by Paul Hill (sorry, can't remember his name) said exactly the same thing, which made me more convinced that I wasn't imagining things.
Don't quote me on this as I haven't looked at them in a few years now, but Match (NSQ:MTCH) and Check Point Software Technologies (NSQ:CHKP) come to mind as I write this.
Their cashflows looked excellent on the surface, but when you accounted for their share buybacks as an operating cost/management bonus that did not appear in their P&L, and that those shares would come back into the market eventually (thereby depressing EPS), the picture did not look as rosy as it first appeared.
For completeness:
Vistry (LON:VTY)
Separately, money has been wasted buying back their shares ahead of this latest profits warning and share price fall
well said i am a fan of buybacks for well run companies on solid foundations - where they cant even manage their own staff to add up numbers cant forecast and admit they still have other stuff to look at seems crazy to be doing buybacks . Hey ho perhaps profits will bounce back strongly here but i wouldnt trustb this bunch of muppets at present. Personally i think top bod and perhaps cfo should be shown the door.
Wise words. It's hard crystallising a loss (actually goes against every grain in my body) - ok one day my prince will come, or just write off to offset the massive gains tax bill (hope not fact).
I think we need to be 'assassins' and less what the media want you to be - compliant connoisseurs - there was a book on this which included rabbits but not pigs (that was Animal Farm).
Vistry (LON:VTY) Call me a contrarian. The housing demand isn't going away. Why take a bad deal when the same buyer will be there in January. They are still make good profits
Took the opportunity to doubled down.
Exactly. Nothing wrong with the business model or market demand and supply dynamics. Look ahead 2-3 years and this will all be forgotten. Yes, management have messed up but IMO this is a great opportunity to capitalise on a low valuation on normalised earnings.
Just a quick comment about the weekly podcast given its a quite news day and the survey monkey form does not work if you sent in a response about the first show. I really like the format and was pleased to see that the problems with big variations in the sound levels of the different contributors has been sorted out. A suggestion going forward would be for some of the contributors to have pop screens for their microphones as there is additional noise coming through from being too close to the microphones that distracts from the content. I may have missed it, but in terms of highlighting the podcast to new subscribers, it probably needs a link somewhere on the main site.
Vistry (LON:VTY) what an utter balls up , total mismanagement, CEO previously well regarded, asleep at the wheel. Another I wish I had sold long ago
Win some, lose some. Vistry (LON:VTY) was one of my winners. Didn't realise it had 300 balls in the air, may not have touched it in the first place.
Balls in the air or balls up? Commiserations to holders we all know that feeling.
bit disappointed with Santa this year but hey ho optimistic for 2025
Happy holidays and hunting in the New year fellow stock pickers and stocko staff
Vistry (LON:VTY)
to be honest it was clear from prior updates that management here were taking zero responsibility - i still think there are aslo ongoing other o/s isues they didnt even update on tday.
They previously threw one area under the bus and said everything else was a ok - it was their job in the fisrt place to have proper systems to manage everything in competent manner - there will only be bad pcactice like this if those at the top let it exist.
0/10 for mangemement here. One would like to have thought prior uopdate would be the end of the major bad news - clearly todays update cant really give anyone confidence that they are making the profits they say they expect to make ?
unbelievably poor management
Re Vistry
"The Group has seen a number of agreements with its partners which were expected to complete in FY24 take longer to conclude, and now expects these transactions to complete in FY25. In addition, the Group has chosen not to proceed with a number of proposed transactions where the commercial terms on offer were not sufficiently attractive."
Raises more questions than answers. I would assume that if commercial terms were not that attractive it would not have got as far as a "proposed transaction" but have been weeded out at the inital evaluation stage. Poor in my view.
The management look suspect in my view as these issues should have been flagged well before Christmas Eve- but there is now the additional concern that the business model is weak. It may sound good to have a host of partners but in my view this just slows the process with multiple decision makers.
Dont hold.
Harworth (LON:HWG) on a roll.
Sale of Ansty Strategic Land site for £53.5m announced this morning adding to the sale of Plot 1 at Skelton Grange to Microsoft for £53.4m four days ago.
Held in family portfolios.
Christmas gift
Wimdward
Cash offer 215p
Only bought in 10 days ago at 118.5p bought a pretty good chunk
Actually clipped 30% of my holding as was up 25% in a week which seemed too good to be true so that is annoying
Big holding of Lawrence Hulse / Dowgate who has been raving about it for some time .
So a sort of 3-1 victory pity about the stupid own goal .
Doesnt happen very often but deffo lucked out there .
Wow. Didn’t expect the Windward (LON:WNWD) takeover offer to come so soon. Brought into it Monday last week with 40% of my pf as I saw it had big potential. I was looking for 100% uplift before going to take initial stake out. Still, can’t complain I suppose. Will give another 25% increase to the value of my pf on top of a 52% rise already for the year. Just the dilemma of selling now, wait or partial sell.
There may be other fruit waiting to be picked.
Quiet? Vistry shatters the calm with a third PW.
Delayed agreements, delayed completions, and slim pickings in the pipeline are to blame. Not management, then.
Effect on current year another 17% drop from 300m to 250m. No mention of effect on next year.
Sneak that out on Christmas Eve, that looks as dodgy as the Southern area management team’s forecasts.
What a shower of …….. Vistry (LON:VTY) they don’t seem to have any clue what’s going on in their own business
Merry Christmas
Morning BnB,
Commiserations, I am not holding much in the property sector at the moment, more through shear ARGH (nervousness) and impending life event (financial fall out of a divorce and buying another house to live in) than any sort of genius.
I wish I was better at finding older information on this site but this reminds me of reading something a long time ago (and I ignored for far too long) about profit warnings often come in threes - I think that it was one of Ed's early pieces, and that our own minds will find a rational to hold on, but data says bail out. Ok we miss on the bounces sometimes, but in the 6 out of 10 cases it is a better decision to sell on the first warning.
Good luck
Tommy
Thanks Tommy, but thankfully no commiserations required. I”ve just been playing the bounces on this one for kicks and sold a couple of weeks ago. As I posted in the “other place” I find this PW the worst of the three in that the first was an idiosyncratic internal cock-up, the second an expansion of the first with some signs of delay in completions. Now a third acknowledges slow completions but adds that new deals are thin on the ground and commercial terms are unattractive, ie the bottom has fallen out of the market, at least temporarily. No suggestion in the note that FY25 will be the beneficiary of deferrals from this year, adding weight to this interpretation.
Tommy
Try https://www.stockopedia.com/academy/reports/the-profit-warning-survival-guide/