Every cloud..... LoopUp (LOOP) and the Covid19 opportunity
'Every cloud has a silver lining' and Covid19 restrictions present a timely opportunity for online conference provider Loopup (LON:LOOP) and spark a reversal of fortunes.
It was a decline in their customers’ usage that caused a drop in profitability last summer but Covid19 has dramatically changed the market dynamics. LoopUp weren’t able to quantify the effect of this as it’s still early days and changing on a daily basis. Nevertheless, they revealed that new customer inquiries are up as the deficiencies of VoIP conference calls are experienced and firms look for a more reliable and higher call quality service. This is precisely the service that Loopup (LON:LOOP) offer and that following investment last year they have plenty of capacity to meet this increased demand. It achieves it's superior conferencing quality by routing the voice channel over more reliable telecom PTSN and the data over the Internet.
The recent preliminary results also give us a much better understanding of the root cause of the profit warning. Basically, there were two:
>> Macroeconomic factors: A slow-down in deals in the professional services sector; and
>> Substitution: Microsoft Teams has displaced some usage by clients for internal conference calling whilst still using LoopUp for external client conference calls.
What has also become apparent from this is that Loopup (LON:LOOP) has two very distinct user groups within their customer base:
>> Professional Services Sector: This group has distinct needs to which LoopUp uniquely caters by supporting online conferences with external clients; and
>> Other Sectors: That may have the same needs but to a far lesser extent.
The continuing growth in the former group is being masked by the decline in the latter. Similarly, the churn rate and customer acquisition cost (CAC) are far better for Professional Services clients but hidden in the overall metrics by the poorer performing Other Sectors. The key factor is the need for online conferences with external clients – the simplicity, reliability and call quality of LoopUp are unique differentiators from the other mass-market providers.
Loopup (LON:LOOP) have thus adapted their strategy to focus much more on this their competitive advantage and targeting their sales effort on the Professional Services Sector. Undoubtedly, Covid19 is hastening the trend towards online conferencing, with virtually no face-to-face meetings due to the current ‘lock-down’ and no opportunity for corporate hospitality – there is no other real choice. Whether this is a temporary phenomenon or becomes the new normal it is too early to say. But there is another driver, that of climate change and Corporate Social Responsibility, that might curtail business travel and maintain a higher level of demand for online conferencing than otherwise would have been the case.
LoopUp estimate the Professional Services segment to be about 30% or c. $2bn of a $7bn of the market for remote meetings. So, with this segment of LoopUp’s revenue amounting to £13.6m they have plenty to shoot at.
For the sake of balance I'll reference Paul Scott's SCVR analysis of Loopup (LON:LOOP) on the 24 Feb - his highly perceptive analysis is always worth reading. As a previous holder he identifies a number of concerns, including their capitalisation of development spend and outstanding debt.
Loopup (LON:LOOP) is a young business competing against considerably larger and formidable competitors such as Microsoft, Google, Adobe, CISCO, Citrix, AT&T, Amazon and ZOOM. However, they have now recognised their sweet spot in the market and are refocusing to target this niche. Covid19 is very timely as it will both increase market demand generally and also draw attention to LoopUp's superior qualities to support a firm's client relationship management.
Having confidence in a firm's management is an absolutely essential investment criteria. When everything is going well its difficult to make a judgement - so how well a management team deal with a challenge is for me a useful 'acid test'. The wheels came off Loopup (LON:LOOP) last year and they are clearly responding positively - Covid19 now presents them with an opportunity and I'm backing them to grasp it.
Maddox (long Loopup (LON:LOOP))
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31 comments
The stars are aligned to see LOOP deliver strong share price performance. It won't be a straight line progression as profits will be taken along the way. LOOP delivered eps of 13.9p in H1 eps (benefiting 4/6 months from Lockdown working from home (WFH)) so I'm penciling in a conservative 28p for the full year and p/e of c.10 on current 202p share price. That's very cheap for a growth stock and in the Telecom Sector Gamma Communications (LON:GAMA) is a fair comparitor on a p/e 29.
Investors Chronicle's Simon Thompson has a price target is 300p presenting a 48% upside. The Investors Chronicle hard copy will be dropping onto Boomers' door mats this Friday.
The newsflow is going to be supportive. We can expect ST to be re-tipping LOOP on a regular basis. Our very own Paul Scott is also a holder and has commented positively on the recent results https://www.stockopedia.com/co..., and we also heard on the excellent piworld that Cockney Rebel is also a fan - htTps://www.piworld.co.uk/2020/09/25/piworld-interview-an-hour-with-cockney-rebel/. Richard has a large following of personal investors via his CockneyRebel chat forum.
There is likely to be RNS announcements on contract wins and positive trading updates. One current fly in the ointment is that the Analysts are being surprisingly cautious. So I would thus expect to see future upgrades - as they'll be very difficult to justify their current forecasts in the face of WFH continuing and positive trading updates.
So prospects are looking very positive - accepting that the market background will undoubtedly contribute turbulence.
Regards Maddox (Holding LOOP and adding)
The sparkling H1 2020 results have had the desired effect on Stockopedia's algos; the StockRank has jumped from 59 to 92 as both Quality 51 > 88 and Value 19 > 38 have significantly improved. LOOP is now characterised as a High Flyer (previously Neutral).
This puts LOOP in the top-decile investment universe for the Stockopedia StockRank portfolio builders.
Indeed it has. I have to admit I'm so predictable that I'm suddenly extremely interested in both Loopup (LON:LOOP) and Novacyt Sa (LON:NCYT) (which has similarly seen a big StockRank spike recently) for this reason alone. I'm always happy to follow along later when all the ducks line up.
I have just bought an initial stake, largely on the basis of the leverage afforded by their new agreement with MS Teams, which could dramatically increase business. Importantly the deal is to give Teams users access to a high quality voice platform, not for Loopup users to access Teams' utilities. A tiny percentage take-up by Teams users will have a dramatic affect on profitability. It's far too early to put that on a spreadsheet except as a way of understanding the potential, but when the numbers are public it will be too late.
I have been frustrated by poor telephone quality speaking to large service companies, HMRC, etc. during lockdown when many of their support staff are working from home. I have read that early adopters of the service by Team users are persevering with public VOIP for internal use but providing the Loopup service for external meetings. As the pandemic subsides, hopefully next spring, I believe a large percentage of support staff will continue working from home. I also believe the necessary step of improving the quality of voice communication will be seen a good value compared to cost of providing a physical building for call centre staff.
It is not without risk but I believe the upside potential of the MS Teams connection is mouth-watering for a £125M market cap company.
My impression is that there is scepticism about LOOP that will take a number of reporting periods to dispel. In the meantime, those that have bothered to understand LOOP can build a position before the buzz arrives and the sp runs away.
Likewise, although I m really bad at trying to figure out what a company's worth (always been a contrarian investor). Healthy pull back from 240s (profit taking I suppose) followed by buys now. However, how much more does this have to go , if any? That's the big Q for me. Waiting on the sidelines to go in big but hesitant with current valuations...
It's really tough to value companies such as Loop UP although there are some SAAS valuation that can help. On a more Macro basis I like to look at a couple of things.
I look how comparable companies trade for. If I had unlimited capital would I buy this company? Lets say I am Constellation Software which specializes in acquiring software companies would I be interested? There aren't many SAAS companies listed in the UK so I may or may not compare them to them but since I look globally I will also expand my lens and compare it to global peers.
Assuming no growth, very unlikely, in H2 2020 than then Loop UP is trading at 2 times sales. They grew revenue at 43% clip. I keep track of 60 some SAAS companies in the US and YTD the average revenue growth was 40.97%. The average US SAAS company trades at 16.87 times sales. Loop notes only 30% of their revenue is recurring so per that metric Loop should trade at 5 times revenue if one is "cautious".
Does Loop Up meet the rule of 40? This can be calculated a couple of ways. It's essentially free cash-flow margin + revenue growth rate. Anything above 40 means a company is growing "profitably for the long term" and should shovel every cent into it's growth. So Loop Up grew revenue 43% so it qualifies solely on that. I did a quick calc and I get 19.83% free cash flow margin so add the growth rate and we get 62.83%. The average US SAAS in comparison is 42% Unfortunately I have exported my template to the UK market so I can't compare to UK listed equivalents.
There are other SAAS metrics that would be useful but Loop doesn't provide them. The lone one provided is the CAC% it cost Loop 40p to attract a pound of revenue. This is pretty good.
The next thing I would look at is the size of the market which Loop services. Always tough to do and these aren't static. Loop Up are really tackling a niche market in the rapidly expanding video communication field so hard to establish what is their total addressable market .
Global Market Insights, Inc pegs the total video communication market to grow to US $50 Billion by 2026. So lets say that 5% of the market fits the niche that Loop Up tackles we are looking at a possible market of $2.5B. Obviously they won't capture all that but comparing it to their current annual run rate of 63.8 million pounds shows that there is significant room for growth.
In addition they are free cash flow positive and generate positive EPS. I would conclude that they are still undervalued here and that you would be the market buying the shares at the current price.
Zoom announced 2Q earnings today. Revenue increased a jaw dropping 355% year over year. While I don’t expect Loopup to come anywhere near that growth rate this gives us an indication that the video conferencing market continues to grow.
Loop continues to be cheap based on its metrics.
Hi Alain, Yes, impressive, I hope that it doesn't set expectations for LOOP too high.
There doesn't seem to be any buzz at all on Loop so I am hoping that isn't the case.
Loopup Investor and Analyst Presentation today - Excellent presentation - and great demonstration of the quality of their 'event by loopup' hosted service.
We were expecting a presentation on the H1 results and the Covid-19 driver - however the focus was almost entirely on this mornings RNS announcing integration with Microsoft Teams.
I think that it'll take a while for Mr Market to fully appreciate the significance of the integration with MS Teams - which most commentators see as a competitor to LOOP.
In addition, to the linking up of what are complementary services it also allows LOOP full entry into a huge adjacent market for integrated business telephony.
LOOP's current sweet spot is catering to the professional services sector engaging, as they now must, via online meeting with their all important customers and clients. This is a different and complementary offering to MS Teams that's sweet spot is 'on network' employee collaboration.
The new opportunity to offer integrated business telephony (aka 'Direct Routing') linking MS Teams has huge potential and LOOP already has the ideal technical infrastructure and expertise to exploit it. The new investment this will require is thus minimal. On the other hand it significantly increases the addressable market as well as increases the potential deal size - particularly for Enterprise scale customers. This is a step-change in the LOOP proposition and market opportunity with, according to Gartner, 10% of firms 'Direct Routing ' in 2019 but with 90% set to switch by 2022. With MS Teams having currently 75m daily active users - that suggests truly explosive growth.
Mr Market has found it difficult to understand how LOOP can survive, let alone to thrive as it is doing, so it'll take a while for the penny to drop on today's announcement.
Hi Alain,
Yes the cash generation is exceedingly positive - cash holding has increased by c. £4m at the same time as debt has fallen by c. £6m and there is a further £1.3m in cash yet to come in. So basically a healthy net cash position overall.
However, when you see cash and debt on a firm's B/S it often raises a question - has the cash holding been manipulated? It's a point in time figure that can be improved by holding off making payments and chasing debtors. In LOOP's situation of rapid growth and Covid threat it is sensible to keep plenty of cash on hand - so not really concerned in the circumstances, particularly as the debt has been substantially reduced.
I would expect to see the SAAS metrics you want on the 29th in the presentation.
One important point is that H1 has been excellent but the Covid-kicker didn't start until March - so was absent for two months. If the Covid effect lasts throughout the period to the end of the year then it not difficult to envisage them doing even better in H2.
One further point is that Simon Thompson of Investors' Chronicle tipped them in his Alpha Report on the 3 July. I dare say he's penning his main IC article for Monday - as I post - there is a good chance he may tip LOOP.
I agree with your point about the cash and it would been nice to see a Cash Flow statement to get a better picture of the status of the business.
We are operating under incomplete information which I suppose is always true but I am currently giving them the benefit of doubt in that regards.
There are some indications such as the gross margins that point to good cash generation. As you mention the new spurt of business has just started so its quite possible that cash generation might come under pressure since the nature SAAS contracts is for outflows to occur at the start of such contracts. Regardless of that it looks like the debt is manageable within the current operational confines.
Good to know about Simon Thompson touting the shares.
Cheers,
Alain
It's not surprising that people find it difficult to believe that LOOP can survive let alone prosper against the likes of ZOOM, Microsoft Teams and CISCO's Webex. The reality is of course that they arn't. LOOP has a differentiated offering that is targeting the 'professional services' niche where meeting involve external clients and sound quality, in particular, is all important. If people are working from home where the ISP isn't offering good bandwidth or it has high contention then the inadequacies of the other providers services become apparent - Covid is doing just that.
Another point I'd highlight is that that LOOP's higher margin offerings - basically professionally hosted on-line conferences have contributed disproportionately to these results. Hence the widening of the gross margin to 71%. Again, this differentiates LOOP from the 'self-service' offerings of the competitors. Hosted service 'Event by LoopUp' was acquired with MeetingZone Group that they took over in June 2018.
Hi Maddox,
So far the thesis is playing out as you imagined.
What I liked is that cash generation seems to have increased significantly, Paul's calculation is as valid as any so I won't bother offering my own estimate, which means the debt as we previously mentioned isn't a concern and investors need not be diluted by the issuance of shares to tackle it. I would argue it's still in bargain territory given it's ability to generate consistent recurring cash.
At this point I wish they would issue some SAAS metric such as ARR and Net Retention Rate and so on. It would certainly help give a better sense of the future profitability LOOP and would be nice to be able to do comparatives with competitors. I'll be writing to their IR.
Cheers,
Alain
Here below is Paul's latest analysis on LOOP and great he's now far more positive. Indeed, considering the competitors in this market these figures are impressive.
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Loopup (LON:LOOP) - Paul Scott 16Jul20 SCVR
Share price: 180.5p (up 10%)
No. shares: 55.4m
Market cap: £100.0m
Trading Update
Some very impressive figures below for H1;
.
Key points;
Very strong rise in revenues
High gross margin, so nice operational gearing
Adjusted EBITDA again - this is NOT a valid measure of profits! Checking back to 2019, the depreciation & amortisation charge in the P&L was substantial, at £7.5m. Or looked at another way, it capitalised £5.0m of expenses into intangible assets on the balance sheet EBITDA ignores both types of costs, hence is an artificially inflated number. I prefer to work on a cashflow basis, so if we take the H1 2020 adj EBITDA of £12.2m, and assume that development spend is running flat, at £2.5m per half year, then we get £9.7m positive cashflow in H1 this year - that's highly impressive - although the commentary points out that H1 is seasonally stronger.
Net debt - this has come down a lot, to £5.4m, and no longer seems a problem. Net debt was £11.4m 6 months earlier, at 31 Dec 2019, so it's dropped by £6.0m in the last 6 months. Again, highly impressive.
Outlook - sounds good;
My opinion - I've been critical of management in the past, because they've made lots of mistakes. But when the facts change, then I change my mind. This update today is really excellent. The big question mark is obviously whether this is a flash in the pan from covid-related home working? Most people seem to think that things have (at least partially) changed permanently, with more people likely to want to work from home at least some of the time in future. As my sector expert pointed out in a phone call earlier, if just one key person is working from home, then the only option is a remote meeting.
LOOP is a niche specialist, so it's offering more secure conference calls (with a video option) than say Zoom, which is coded in China apparently, and has widely-known security issues. LOOP seems particularly popular with firms of lawyers and accountants, which are sticky customers. Hence I see LOOP as more a niche product, than mass market.
We can see how the product works on 29 July, with a results webinar.
Overall, I think this looks very interesting, and I've turned positive on this share again, due to the impressive figures published today.
Note below how the StockRank plunged into red territory when the problems began in 2018;
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Thanks arfournier, great again to get some independent substantiation.
As you say, I would expect the 40% revenue growth figure to be well under the actual April run rate.
The revenue growth will have been ramping up over the four-month period. Covid-19 was a threat on the horizon in January, 16 March we were told to Social Distance but full Lockdown didn't commence until 23 March. Also, there will be delay in the new clients and their revenue coming on-stream.
I'm not going to attempt to estimate what the revenue increase figure is April 2020 on April 2019 - but I'm pretty sure it's North of 40%.
...and here is the update.
Trading is 40% up in the first four months of the FY as a result of the Covid-19 Lockdown. Business is up across the board - existing clients, new business and aquired business. The most positive point is that the situation is highlighting £LOOP's differentiated market proposition:
'New customers switching to LoopUp, very often after having experienced reliability issues with their incumbent product relating to VoIP-based audio over the public internet'
Sales leads are 4x up on pre-Covid levels and contract signings 2x. They are also providing free services to 20 NHS Trusts which is great to see.
As Loopup (LON:LOOP) has already invested in capacity and has a flexible cloud based business model - gearing should ensure that this increased trading translates to the bottom line.
I think the interesting thing is that Zoom's security issues weren't really public until about the 9th of April so the kicker in revenue to Loop Up was only for a three week time period. So I would expect potential client interest in Loop Up's solutions to keep growing.
Today's announcement is certainly a step in the right direction but I think there is better yet to come.
Pexip which competes with Zoom and Loop Up is planning on going public on the Oslo Stock Exchange this month or in June. The prospectus has just been made public and I really haven't looked at it that closely but business seems to be booming as well. They like Loop Up are known for their secure platform. I'll eventually have a look at their prospectus and see if there is any read through to Loop Up.
I had been negative on £LOOP until recently as you mentioned the competitive pressures were having a significant impact on their business. I compared them to Zoom $ZM which I have been holding since their IPO and the difference in revenue growth was astounding.
Loopup (LON:LOOP) at one point seemed to be priced to not have any growth which in this environment seemed ridiculous so I had been buying shares.
This is, of course, may not be very significant but the Hedge Fund my wife works for has banned Zoom for official firm business. Internally they use Teams and with clients, they use Loopup and other solutions.
Thanks for the insight - a bit of scuttlebutt information to confirm the story is very welcome. It has been the internal switch to Teams that caused LOOP the drop in revenue last year.
What you haven't mentioned is that ZOOM has security vulnerabilities as well as potential performance issues when band width is constrained. Security is a LOOP strength - so any business that values security, such as a Hedge Fund, will choose LOOP. Are you able to confirm with your wife?
Security is indeed what drove her firm away from using Zoom and into using Loop Up and other solutions for official business. The counterparty of the meeting drives what the solution they use, and she mentioned that Loop Up has been rising in use in the last two weeks.
Covid had only just started to effect business meetings on 19 March LoopUp Results Day and to early to assess the impact on the firm. Full Covid-19 Lockdown then came in on 23 March since when I seem to be spending a good proportion of work and social time on either Skype, Teams, Zoom and of course LoopUp. LoopUp seems to be gaining ground with Stock Brokers, PR and Financial Institutions for Analyst Briefings - and I must say it's reassuring when they appear on the meeting invite. I was on one Results Conf Call recently and they lost the FD for about five minutes - I won't reveal whom as I may not get invited again.
Zoom appear to be doing extremely well and garnering most of the attention whilst LoopUp appear to be under the radar. Nevertheless, the day I published this article the share price closed at 71.5p - now 2 May 2020 it has run up nicely to 116p up 62%. I'm hoping that we'll get a further update on trading in the light of Covid-19 Lockdown. It appears that the Lockdown is going to persist until at least mid-May and eased only gradually thereafter. One imagines that the longer it continues the more this mode of online working will become new-normal.
Loopup (LON:LOOP) - Paul Scott 24Jun20 SCVR
Share price: 140p (up 10% today, at 09:04)
No. shares: 55.4m
Market cap: £77.6m
AGM Statement
LoopUp Group plc (AIM: LOOP), the premium remote meetings company, is pleased to provide the following statement ahead of its Annual General Meeting (AGM) at 10am today, 24 June 2020.
This is self-explanatory;
In our trading update on 6 May 2020, we noted a material increase in business volumes, driven by the large-scale migration towards working from home associated with the Covid-19 outbreak, and expressed our confidence in exceeding prevailing market expectations in terms of revenue, EBITDA and cash generation for the current financial year to 31 December 2020.
Since that update, the Group has continued to trade materially above pre Covid-19 levels. Whilst it remains difficult to predict near term developments in working practices and business climate, we do now nevertheless expect to exceed revised market expectations in terms of revenue, EBITDA and cash generation for the current financial year.
I want to know what profits are going to be like, not EBITDA.
Still, a second upgrade this year is clearly good news.
My opinion - market conditions this year couldn't have been more perfect for LoopUp - business should be booming, given that physical meetings have all but ceased, due to covid. Therefore, whilst today's update is clearly positive, is it positive enough? From what I'm hearing, meetings are moving onto Zoom, and Microsoft Teams, not onto LoopUp. Although occasionally I do hear "welcome to LoopUp" when joining a conference call, and of course it's tiny in comparison with those behemoths.
LoopUp does have some good product features, and is simple to use. But so is Zoom. To my mind, LoopUp looks a bit of an also ran. It's got a massive market opportunity right now, so let's see what the figures look like next time. It's used by firms of accountants & lawyers, and has an impressive client list. So there could be a decent niche for LOOP.
The balance sheet is weak. Last reported NTAV was negative, at about £(12m). Therefore, I think it might come under pressure to do an equity fundraising to eliminate unwelcome bank debt. That should be possible in the current environment, especially as LoopUp's product is so relevant to current circumstances. I urge management to bite the bullet, and raise c.£15m in fresh equity, which would only dilute existing holders by about 20% - well worth it, to eradicate insolvency risk. My invoice is in the post! ;-)
Thought it would be useful to capture Paul Scott's excellent appraisal on this thread.
I'm less concerned about the debt position than Paul - this was derived from the substantial acquisition of MeetingZone in 2018. The update also states cash generation is exceeding the previously revised estimates too - so that should start to repair the balance sheet.
MeetingZone also brought on board a new premium hosted webinar service. Indications are that this is proving highly popular with businesses needing to host larger online meetings with external participants, AGM's, Sales Promotions and the like. A professional host manages the meeting leaving the presenters to focus on delivery and the feedback from the external clients.
We shouldn't have too long to wait for a more detailed update on H1 ending 30 June.
I agree with you about the debt I am not worried. Free Cash flow was actually slightly positive last year. If things were static could probably go two years without the need to raise cash. Obviously to our delight things aren't static. SAAS companies expense mostly come upfront so there is a likelihood that expenses might increase short term. Eventually, though, SAAS companies practically mint cash. I also think that £LOOP in the midst of some broker upgrades so I would wait until then to raise cash.
I can't edit posts today for some reason. I suspect that cash generation will also be better than 2019 given the wording in the RNS so this need to raise cash may not be required. Any way you look at it Loopup (LON:LOOP) isn't in desperate need for cash and should only raise some judiciously which I don't think is now.
Hi Maddox
Hope you and yours are well in these peculiar times. Any decent beer gardens down Wimbledon way?
Anyway, I agree. My tiny stake is now a small stake and I don't think there's any urgent need for them to raise cash. However, I think they probably should unless they really think they can fund their way through. Timing of that would depend on how good the results are going to be.
The competitive environment is obviously dominated by Zoom but I'm inundated with different platforms at the moment. There's plenty of room for everyone as long as they intelligently specialise. Too early, in my view, to determine the winners but given the potential market size I don't think there's any issue with opportunity.
Cheers!
timarr
Agreed its a highly fragmented market and competitive market. Microsoft and Cisco among others also compete in the space. While I love $ZM and own shares they have some I would say significant risks. The most obvious one is the security vulnerabilities that were found a while back This is a short term blip and will be remedied . The bigger risk IMHO is that most of their software development is done in China.
As for £LOOP they have a niche which is a fairly big niche they can exploit and they can do very well doing so. Given the underlying economics of the business with marginal costs that keep decreasing with users and usage and the secular tailwinds of the industry, it operates in £LOOP is still an attractive buy here.
I also bought shares of Pexip which IPO'd on the Olso exchange recently which operates in the same industry. Ther main clientele being NGO's and government entities. The CEO reckons that you will see 5 years' worth of business compressed into one.
Hi Tim,
Fine thanks, you too I hope. Bottle of wine in the park I reckon for the next SW London meet-up if the weather's like this.
Yes, agreed and as arfournier also points out - huge competition from some colossal firms and new entrants too. On the face of it - not somewhere you'd want to compete, but LOOP have their niche, it's sizeable (c. $7bn) and it's a premium niche. And let's not be modest LOOP has the best technical solution - better than all of the other mainstream market players - ideally suited to their target niche.
I was on the CNIC webinar today - technical difficulties meant we kicked-off 30 mins late, without the CEO and the sound quality was pretty ropey. The presenters sounded like they were down the other end of a drain pipe.
We've put up with pretty awful comms in the past but once you've had a quality experience it sets the bar higher for all future webinars - and after all this is increasingly going to be how clients experience your business.