Investment Trust , REIT and ETF's- Thoughts (May 2026)
Investment Trust , REIT and ETF's- Thoughts (May 2026)
Links to older monthly thoughts.
April 26 March 26 Feb 2026 January 2026 December 25 November 2025 October 25 September 2025 August 25 July 25 June 25 May 25 April 2025 March 25 February
25 January 25 December 24.November October September August July June May April March February
For more information on Investment trusts visit:
Association of Investment Companies.
https://www.theaic.co.uk/
Free to sign up. On the site you can create portfolios, screen and compare Investment Trusts by Geographic region, Sector , Yield and more. A few Trusts who are not AIC members have limited data.
Jonathan Davies's website https://money-makers.co/.
You can also sign up(Paid membership) for insights on Investment Trusts from him and others. Weekly email and podcast .
Citywire do a daily Investment trust email. Free, does have sponsored content but keeps you up to-date with Investment Trust news.
https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider
Trustnet have an Investment trust section. https://www.trustnet.com/
Kepler Trust intelligence produce reports for Investment trusts
Edison cover Investment Companies and do a monthly Investment trust round up. You can sign up for free.
https://www.edisongroup.com/equities/investment-companies/.
You can sign up for newsletters/fact sheets from most of the Investment Trusts on their websites.
For ETF's I use https://www.justetf.com/uk/. You can screen buy region, sector and see performance comparisons.
March 2026 Investment Trust monthly performance.
Equity Only
Top 10
Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIT) +36.1%
Polar Capital Technology Trust (LON:PCT) +26.5%
Molten Ventures (LON:GROW) +25.9%
Manchester And London Investment Trust (LON:MNL)23.2%
Allianz Technology Trust (LON:ATT) +21.9%
Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LON:SMT) +20%
Pacific Horizon Investment Trust (LON:PHI) +18.1%
Athelney Trust (LON:ATY) +17.9%
Cordiant Digital Infrastructure (LON:CORD) +17.7%
Fidelity Emerging Markets (LON:FEML) +17.5%
Botton 10
Sure Ventures (LON:SURE) -17.6%
Digital 9 Infrastructure (LON:DGI9) -12.9%
DP Aircraft I (LON:DPA) -5.9%
British and American Investment Trust (LON:BAF) -3.7%
CT UK High Income Trust (LON:CHIB) -3.3%
Global Opportunities Trust (LON:GOT) -2.1%
Castelnau (LON:CGL) -1.4%
Worsley Investors (LON:WINV) -0.4%
Schroder British Opportunities Trust (LON:SBO) -0.4
Sts Global Income & Growth Trust (LON:STS) -0.2
All Tusts
Top 10
Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIT) +36.1%
Polar Capital Technology Trust (LON:PCT) +26.5%
Molten Ventures (LON:GROW) +25.9%
Manchester And London Investment Trust (LON:MNL)23.2%
Allianz Technology Trust (LON:ATT) +21.9%
Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LON:GPM) +21.3%
Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LON:SMT) +20%
Pacific Horizon Investment Trust (LON:PHI) +18.1%
Athelney Trust (LON:ATY) +17.9%
Cordiant Digital Infrastructure (LON:CORD) +17.7%
Bottom 10
Aquila European Renewables (LON:AERS) -23.5%
Sure Ventures (LON:SURE) -17.6%
Digital 9 Infrastructure (LON:DGI9) -12.9%
DP Aircraft I (LON:DPA) -5.9%
Macau Property Opportunities Fund (LON:MPO) -5.6%
Ecofin US Renewables Infrastructure Trust (LON:RNEW) -4.4%
British and American Investment Trust (LON:BAF) -3.7%
CT UK High Income Trust (LON:CHIB) -3.3%
Syncona (LON:SYNC) -3.5%
Global Opportunities Trust (LON:GOT) -2.1%
I am in Cornwall on a garden tour/meet friends for the w/e so limited time this morning as off to a booked slot at the Eden project. So no property or ETF figures and need my 2 screens at home to do this. Next month !
Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for information and education purposes only. Please read our disclaimer and terms and conditions to understand our obligations.

192 comments
Investor Meet Company this coming week.
Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIT) SERAPHIM SPACE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Third quarter results for the three-month period ended 31 March 2025
3rd Jun 2026 at 11:00am BST.
CT UK Capital and Income Investment Trust (LON:CTUK) CT UK CAPITAL AND INCOME INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Mid-year update
4th Jun 2026 at 2:00pm BST.
Capital Gearing Trust (LON:CGT)
Capital Gearing Trust - Annual Report
4th Jun 2026 at 2:30pm BST
VITP Friday update - week 533
The weekly VITP updates are an experiment to see if weekly creates more interest and follow up, including whether weekly is too often or not.
I’ll comment a bit further on the new June thread, probably after number33 next updates.
Meanwhile, whatever its failings the VITP shows well the big plus points for having a well balanced Investment Trust portfolio (and also for our own share and Trust and ETF portfolios). I.e a high chance the portfolio will be holding current high flyers.
e.g the VITP is really benefiting from holding current high flyers like Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LON:SMT) and Allianz Technology Trust (LON:ATT) and also the stunning mining Trusts CQS Natural Resources Growth and Income (LON:CYN) and BlackRock World Mining Trust (LON:BRWM)
Ken, I updated the VITP on Friday, do you want me to repeat it in the June thread?
I had meant this coming Friday, but it’s a good idea to post it on the new June thread as well. So yes please.
I bought Springfield Properties (LON:SPR) on Weds. Price has fallen sharply recently but as it trades now at a large discount, an OK yield and looks like they have a secure decent margin income through SSEN Transmission housing agreement. Be aware family pretty much have control and dividend has been cut in the past. My view is the fall has been over done and a reasonable chance of seeing a 25% uplift in the share price.
Hi Charles. I think the whole building sector is looking quite attractive, but my concern is "what will be the catalyst that propels housebuilding back on track?"
The likes of Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW.) Barratt Redrow (LON:BTRW) and others all offer very attractive prices, but they all need some sort of catapult to restart the growth story. With the bond market struggling again then mortgages are priced very highly. Maybe the resolution of both the Iran war and the Govt/PM shenanigans will provide the catalyst, in which case you would hope that Autumn maybe time.
I hold two other plays in this area - Marshalls (LON:MSLH) and Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) (LON:MAB1) but I would also be tempted to go for a mainstream builder as well.
Obviously waiting for the news to land regards resolving the above issues will be too late, so now might be a good time if you are prepared to ride the ups & downs over the summer.
I agree Kevin, but for me SPR looked particularly cheap. I do hold BTRW as well, but bought that too early. I had a mortgage in the early 1990’s , so find talk of very high mortgage rates now amusing.I am sure rates will continue downwards once Trump loses control of congress and senate.(Hopefully).
Even though his approval rating is very low I still worry he will find a way to keep/fiddle control of the senate (I think he will lose the house) the democrats seem so weak despite all the gifts he is giving them.
Quite often the catalyst can come out of the blue and unexpectedly when shares are at rock bottom valuations, something happens from leftfield and we’re left scratching our head thinking I knew they were too cheap!
I bought HICL Infrastructure (LON:HICL) first thing this morning after very positive Results. Should have bought sooner. Note small dividend increase ahead.
Brief paste of highlights summary here:-
NAV per share of 160.2p, delivering a Total NAV Return of 10.3%, driven by accretive portfolio rotation, strong operational performance and disciplined capital allocation (31 March 2025: 153.1p; 2.0%).
·
Strong underlying portfolio performance, with a 12.2% portfolio return, significantly ahead of expectations, supported by outperformance from growth assets and active asset management. Growth assets delivered 9% EBITDA growth year-on-year.
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Dividends of 8.35p per share, fully supported by portfolio cash generation, with dividend cash cover of 2.38x including disposals and 1.10x excluding disposals, reflecting improved underlying cash flow strength (31 March 2025: 1.56x / 1.07x).
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£536m of disposals completed in the year, materially exceeding the Company's target, and demonstrating the resilience and value of the portfolio, with over £1bn realised over the past three years at an average premium to carrying value of 11%.
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FY27 dividend target1 reiterated at 8.50p per share and a new FY28 dividend guidance of 8.65p per share, reflecting strong cash flow visibility and confidence in the portfolio's long-term earnings profile.
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Disciplined and active capital allocation, including £103m of share buybacks completed in the year, and a further £25m completed post year-end, alongside selective reinvestment, supporting NAV accretion and ongoing portfolio optimisation.
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Strong and flexible liquidity position, comprising £87.7m of cash, £333.3m of disposal proceeds and an undrawn RCF, providing significant capital flexibility to support allocation priorities.
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Improved management terms agreed2, moving to a 100% market capitalisation fee basis and a step-down in the notice period to 2 years, enhancing alignment with shareholders and materially reducing vehicle costs to a proforma OER of 0.90%3. Fees continue to be capped at the level under the previous GAV-based approach.
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Board to propose a biennial continuation vote from the 2028 AGM, to be triggered if the Company's shares trade at an average discount to NAV per share of more than 10% over the preceding financial year.
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Board succession planning underway, with Mike Bane approaching his nine-year term in mid-2027. A Chair search process has commenced.
Looks good, though not one I hold. Foresight Environmental Infrastructure (LON:FGEN) also reported good results, which I do hold.
Recently bought back into SDCL Efficiency Income Trust (LON:SEIT) . Must be mad.
Brucie, i also hold Foresight Environmental Infrastructure (LON:FGEN) and afew months ago sold SDCL Efficiency Income Trust (LON:SEIT)
Buying back! You're a braver man than me. Good luck.
Why do you think there is more share price upside given dividend yield is now 6.6%, which seems like it can’t go any lower given where gilt yields are?
Nurzel
Assuming you are asking aboit HICL Infrastructure (LON:HICL) (it helps when posters name the investment they are referring to) it’s for the reasons given by HICL Infrastructure (LON:HICL) in their recent Results including those seen in the highlights section I posted.
If they can continue to increase NAV and the dividend then modest upside is likely. But a rising share price is not the key reason for looking to buy HICL Infrastructure (LON:HICL) . It’s an attractive income Trust. There are far better alternatives for anyone prioritising capital gains.
Hi Ken - yes I was referring to HICL Infrastructure (LON:HICL). I agree that it is a safe 7-8% return p.a., but I am mainly looking at high yielding income trusts that have share price upside to deliver total returns in the low teens. I thus prefer Cordiant Digital Infrastructure (LON:CORD) and Newriver Reit (LON:NRR) as I think TSR will be higher here than at HICL Infrastructure (LON:HICL)
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund (LON:GRID)
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund plc (GRID) has formed a long-term strategic partnership with Summit Transition Partners (STP), a joint venture between Sumitomo Corporation and TPK Holdings.
STP will provide equity funding and international expertise, starting with an exclusivity agreement to acquire a 25% stake in three immediate pipeline projects: Cockenzie, Monets Garden, and Elland 2. Construction on these projects will begin immediately. STP also holds exclusivity for 25% stakes in two future projects, Lister Drive and Ocker Hill.
This collaboration validates GRID’s asset quality, enabling project-level capital growth despite challenging market conditions.
HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) According to dealroom.co "Rightsline, a leading rights and royalties management software provider, has secured a $500 million strategic growth investment from Hg. HgCapital Trust will invest approximately £11 million, with other Hg clients participating through the Hg Mercury Fund.
The platform serves over 300 organisations across eight IP-intensive sectors, including media, publishing and life sciences. It processes more than $40 billion in royalties annually and manages over 150 million IP assets across 28 countries.
The investment will accelerate Rightsline's AI product development through Hg's dedicated AI incubator and support international expansion. The company has already launched AI-powered tools, including a contract ingestion assistant and natural-language rights assistant. Rightsline achieved record growth in 2025 across bookings, revenue and retention.
Literacy Capital (LON:BOOK) Another trust I heard on an historically high discount “
"The sale of BOOK's largest remaining fund interest helps to accelerate the process of rebalancing the portfolio away from third-party fund interests and towards direct buyout investments in profitable UK businesses, which has been BOOK's stated objective for several years.
Similar to the sale of the previous fund interest in late 2024, this transaction achieves a highly attractive price and swift receipt of cash proceeds relative to typical secondary transactions, demonstrating the quality of BOOK's diverse holdings and investment strategy.
Including this sale, more than £36 million of cash has been received by BOOK since the start of 2026. All disposals in Literacy Capital's history, including those completed in 2026 to date, have valued the assets in line with or at a premium to prior carrying values."
Just to say that I had been unable to watch the Money Makers podcasts and wrongly thought it was because of changes they had made.
So I emailed them……..and the customer service was outstanding. Prompt personal replies to emails and they left no stone unturned to try and sort it.
Then I suddenly wondered whether it was a glitch on my iPad so I shut it down and tried again.. That’s what it was and it’s working fine now.
I apologised for inadvertently wasting their time. Again an immediate understanding reply and no hint of their feeling annoyed.
Very timely Ken, just listened to BlackRock World Mining Trust (LON:BRWM) and the Polar Capital Technology Trust (LON:PCT) chat with Ben Rogoff two weeks was equally informative. Large holder of the former and of the management company of the latter only unfortunately!
Getting back to Investment Trusts………….
Look no further than Vietnam for a Country to invest in for potentially spectacular longer term gains. The current long dull spell looks a great buy opportunity. There are 3 Vietnam Trusts to check out, all at discounts, VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (LON:VOF) VietNam Holding (LON:VNH) and Vietnam Enterprise Investments (LON:VEIL) . I hold all 3.
Read this article and perhaps be convinced. I’ll paste the text shortly for any who don’t subscribe:-
https://www.thetimes.com/money...
“The Asian powerhouse you can’t ignore.”
I went to Vietnam in 2019 — for a holiday, not an investment research trip. I’d been examining it as a potential investment for a few years before that, so I was keen to see the reality behind the numbers.
I left more convinced than ever that the growth story was real. It could have been confirmation bias, where we only take on information that confirms what we already think — and investing shouldn’t take place simply based on “vibes” — but the data and the experience stacked up.
The cities felt alive, tourists were everywhere and businesses were booming. There’s lots to be excited about for investors who are looking for the classic emerging market story: the sleepy fishing village turned into a port; the shantytowns replaced by skyscrapers; millions of young, eager workers; new infrastructure, education, industrialisation and progress.
Decades ago the same could have been said of South Korea, Taiwan and China. Vietnam has a lot in common with South Korea — it’s a coastal Asian nation, tightly bound up in global trade, it has strong relationships with the US and China and has been undergoing a centralised rebuilding program after a devastating war.
Vietnam is about thirty years behind South Korea. It has the same GDP per capita as South Korea did in the early 1990s, a metric on which South Korea now beats the UK and EU. So, can Vietnam follow the same path?
The country’s economic structure has changed. Farming is no longer the main engine of growth in Vietnam. Big companies looking to diversify production away from China find Vietnam politically stable, trade-friendly and cost-competitive. The manufacturing sector is booming, taking domestic construction and the service sector with it.
GDP growth doesn’t tell you everything, but when it’s at an average of about 7 per cent a year, good things are happening. Government debt is about 30 per cent of GDP, literacy is 96 per cent, and the workforce is, age-wise, in the sweet spot, with two workers for every dependant.
There are challenges to such rapid growth. Electricity demand has risen faster than supply, making Vietnam more dependent on imported fuels and vulnerable to power shortages. Staying neutral in disputes between the US and China is a high-wire act. And state control over internal politics is causing rumbles of discontent.
Of course, you can’t buy an economy. You have to buy the stocks listed there. So it’s worth thinking a little about what you’re getting exposure to if you’re investing on the incongruously named Ho Chi Minh stock exchange.
The Vietnamese market is one tenth the size of the UK’s — £270 billion v £2.7 trillion. Over the past decade earnings have grown an average of 14 per cent a year, as the companies turn GDP growth into profits. The market is dominated by a few big players, with a huge number of tiny companies. Most investors should focus on the big, established businesses — the Xtrackers Vietnam Swap exchange traded fund (ETF) gives you exposure to 28.
One of the biggest companies is Vingroup, a conglomerate that does, well, everything: housing developments, shopping malls, healthcare and education.
Another big business is the steelmaker Hoa Phat Group. In an economy that is building at a frantic pace, being the main provider of steel is pretty lucrative — the Carnegie family in 19th-century America is proof of that.
And then there are the banks: Saigon–Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank and Sacombank. A fast-growing economy needs financing and, as households enter the banking system, the banks are the beneficiaries, offering loans, insurance and mortgages.
In fact, all these companies will do well if the Vietnamese economy and its people become wealthier — and the opposite is true if its fortunes take a nosedive. You should expect a wild ride. The economy is new and changing quickly. The market is dominated by local investors and swings from panic to elation quickly. The currency impact is unpredictable.
Towards the end of this year Vietnam will be “promoted” to emerging market status by FTSE Russell, the subsidiary that licenses and manages stock market indices. This will put it firmly on the radar for investors and will mean that lots of tracker funds will be obligated to invest.
In a few years Vietnam might be as popular for investors as it is for holidaymakers.
Ben Kumar is the head of strategy at the investment firm 7IM.”
Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) has broken fairly emphatically up through it's 200 sma. This is a share that's been reduced in value to over 90% from its 5vyear peak, but ha instituted a robust series of buy backs, which will now continue to tighten the availae float. Shorts have also, I understand, all but closed. Beyond the fortunes of the business itself, it may prove instructive in terms of a recovery of a largely generic asset manager, with broad stable of funds. It lacks the specialisms of Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) or the niche of players like Ashmore (LON:ASHM) or Impax Asset Management (LON:IPX) . But would stand to benefit from any redirection from passive to active, and of course ex-US flows.
I bought back in to a full position about a week ago.
Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIT) Much as I like SSIT and the managers, and did OK with it although I sold out far too early, the current premium seems extraordinary-90% to last published NAV. I bought Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIC) on launch and they are up 5%. But as away into SSIT I might buy more as they will convert at NAV not the market price. I guess this is due to SpaceX- I have not/will not look at it as an investment for personal reasons- I am no fan of Musk despite his extraordinary ability to get his companies valued highly. Morals do cost money but that is how I invest.
I am waiting on SSIT until the next NAV and see if the price calms down. I was equally negative on 3i (LON:III) and whilst I made money holding it sold far too early when the premium rocketed due to Action- still mystifies me and not a trust I would buy unless it was dirt cheap-and even then would want to see Action manage to work in the US. Action still has the potential to get in a mess in the US in my opinion.
I am sure most of you are aware by now but Mello2026 is exactly one week away and this time next week 450 of us will be in the conference centre in Chiswick engaging with 14 Investment Trusts and funds plus 40 listed companies and networking together. We have also laid on entertainment in the evening and have an excellent female singer joining us in the Mello bar which will be open until late.
If any attendees want to do a Stockslam for five minutes at Mello in the theatre on the first evening just let me know
Yes but please explain the use of the “us” for the second time in posts this morning as any marketing spin however slick is looking…………………..Rob
Interesting piece in this weekends MoneyWeek on the opportunity in investing in Kazahkstan.
Appreciate that state involvement is always a risk but the story here looks good. The article suggests: Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya Kazatomprom AO (LON:KAP) as a way to play the uranium play. East Star Resources (LON:EST) as an early stage exploration play and Air Astana AO (LON:AIRA) as a play on their growing connectivity.
I don't think I have read much here about investing in Kazahkstan - is there something which puts most investors off?
JS worth having a look at commentary from Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML) and others operating in country re- attitude towards Foreign Direct Investment in the 9th largest country in the world. A few years ago they had to, sorry chose to, make an exploratory investment in some other tailings from another Soviet era development. Cost them £3m or so from memory. I think that was, shall we say, management of political expectations. After sampling they didn't progress. Probably wrote off the 'investment'.
Surprised me that they then acquired Sasa in North Macedonia. Not quite Central Asia!
I suspect Kazakhstan is probably little different from operating in Vietnam or similar. Free to operate within varying levels of controls.
Covered Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya Kazatomprom AO (LON:KAP) in a past report
JSchoffer, I worked in Kazakhstan for a long time and still invest there. I hold Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya Kazatomprom AO (LON:KAP), Halyk Bank AO (LON:HSBK) and Kaspi.kz AO (NSQ:KSPI) (Nasdaq listed). I recently sold out of Air Astana AO (LON:AIRA) though agree longer term, it has potential. The planned fleet expansion is quite something (as is the debt they'll take on to fund it). I think I'm right in saying BAE Systems (LON:BA.) have now sold out completely from Air Astana AO (LON:AIRA).
As for the banks, Halyk Bank AO (LON:HSBK) looks reasonably well valued to me and I recently reduced. Kaspi.kz AO (NSQ:KSPI) is weak, but appears to be improving. They have expanded to Turkiye, which if it goes well, will certainly be price enhancing. Within country Kaspi is ubiquitous... shops, taxis, restaurants, etc. They really stole a march on the competition! That said, there was a short note put out just before the price collapsed...
Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya Kazatomprom AO (LON:KAP) is my favourite long term growth idea for KZ. Some head winds at the moment, but I consider it a top up opportunity (almost...)
I'd also say there's a difference between investing in Kazakh companies and companies that operate in Kazakhstan, i.e. those listed above vs (e.g.) Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML), Steppe Cement (LON:STCM) or Steppe Gold (TSE:STGO). The government looks after their own...
Jon
Thanks Jon - great insights!. I've taken a small position in Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya Kazatomprom AO (LON:KAP) and will keep an eye on the banks. Any concerns with the currency value? Looks like the Kazakh Tenge fell off a cliff around 10 years ago and has just been slowly decreasing in value since against GBP and USD
Ah yeah, I forgot to mention that. The currency is generally declining and anyone investing should be aware of that. It has bounced recently and I read an article along the lines of countries exposed to commodities such as Kazakhstan can see currency appreciation in these conditions of high demand. But you are certainly right to raise the point.
Regarding Natsionalnaya Atomnaya Kompaniya Kazatomprom AO (LON:KAP) the following is copied and translated from Telegram channel I'm a member of:
#kazpromotions #KAP
❗️The world's largest uranium producer, KazAtomProm (hereinafter KAP), published its operating results for Q1 2026. Uranium production on a 100% basis increased by 9% to 6,144 tonnes. The share of production attributable directly to KAP increased by 10% to 3,247 tonnes. Sales volumes for the Group and for KAP decreased by 40% to 1,535 tonnes. It's worth noting that the company's operations are characterized by sales volatility. Uranium sales volumes depend on the metal delivery schedule, which is typically determined by customers, and these sales may not always be uniform.
The average realized uranium price in January-March 2026 was $61.3 per pound, 12% higher than last year but lower than the average metal price for the reporting period ($86.5 per pound). Experts predict that uranium prices will exceed $93 per pound in 2026 and rise to $104 per pound next year. In January 2026, uranium company shares reached multi-month highs amid uranium prices rising above $100 per pound. KAP equity instruments also reached new all-time highs, with the LSE reaching a record high in the third ten-day period of April, and the KASE reaching a record high at the end of January.
The company maintained its operating guidance for the current year. Positive operating performance is expected to continue in 2026. KAP estimates 100% uranium production volumes at 27.5–29.0 thousand tons and 14.5–15.5 thousand tons for KAP alone. This year, the company plans to sell 19.5–20.5 thousand tons of uranium, of which 13.1–14.1 thousand tons will come from KAP sales.
Oakley Capital Investments (LON:OCI) has invested in XTEL. What I find interesting is this comment “
“ At the same time, rapid adoption of AI and data-driven decision-making is accelerating demand for best-in-class platforms such as XTEL.
XTEL's software brings together large amounts of complex sales and commercial data into one system that customers rely on as a core system of record. Combined with the Company's deep industry expertise, this creates a highly embedded and mission-critical solution. AI is expected to further enhance the platform's capabilities, enabling customers to make faster and better decisions using the data already managed within XTEL.”
This confirms my view that the market has over-reacted in marking down trusts with software exposure such as OCI and HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) .
(just my opinion) - it depends :) - seen a number of demos where you point Claude at AirBNB and it clones it / describe a social media app for rabbit owners and it builds it - you dont even need a development team (!). Then they claim traditional software is dead.
I think if your business is a social media app for rabbit owners you might be in trouble.
Otherwise I think
- companies that "own" data or are trustworthy sources of data will tend to do well as all those ai apps have to get data from somewhere (google didnt blow $billions on maps for no reason - if you are a commercial user, you pay)
- 'regulated' software isnt going anywhere (it runs the bank / the enterprise / the mri scanner / transmits money / runs your sipp / your car / calculates and pays your tax)
- platforms with 'inertia' will remain - rightmove - estate agents hate RMV because expensive but use it because we all go there - I think this will remain so even if somone cloned RMV as they then have to get people to go their site and that is hard and expensive.
Of the HG capital top 10 holdings, some may be vulnerable
Septeo - Legal, Real Estate, and Corporate Compliance Software3.9%
Ideagen plc - Regulatory Compliance, Risk, and Safety Software3.6%
Auditboard - Cloud-based GRC (Governance, Risk, and Compliance)3.5%
Even then actual coding is a fraction of the development effort, which is a small part of the hosting cost (non-hosted apps are less vulnerable to AI) , which is often a small part of the business's overall costs.
Also, there is nothing stopping those companies using AI in their development process.
It's a red queens race really.
Really enjoyed the last couple of Money Makers podcasts: Ben Rogoff of Polar Capital Technology Trust (LON:PCT) and Evy Hambro of BlackRock World Mining Trust (LON:BRWM). I have held the latter for a number of years as a low risk way of getting commodities exposure and a steady dividend stream. I missed the opportunity to top up 18 months back.
https://tinyurl.com/yvxh3att
What I found recently interesting in the BlackRock World Mining Trust (LON:BRWM) interview was around 20 minutes where the discussion turns from the demand for commodities (particularly copper from the 'hyperscalers' building data centre capacity) to valuations. EH says they do not need to see higher resource prices because the constituent companies are already highly profitable; if that was to happen it would be a bonus for the trust. Higher prices would incentivise mining companies to develop new and existing mines. But the key issue here is that these companies are trading on multiples way below where they have historically; there is a compelling value proposal here. Plus mining companies have better balance sheets than they ever had before.
So using Stockopedia for the London listed companies and Google for the non-London listed companies, what multiples (typically trailing PE ratios) are they trading on ?
Following list is from the AIC web site.
https://tinyurl.com/3999n66b
Barrick Mining Corp (NYSE): 11
Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE): 16
Rio Tinto (LON:RIO): 12
Newmont Corp (NYSE): 14
Vale SA (NYSE): 24
Anglogold Ashanti (NYSE): 13
Anglo American (LON:AAL): 27
Kinross Gold Corp (TOR): 12
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp (TOR): 32
BHP Group (ASX): 20
So the answer is 'mixed' but I did notice one or two cases where the mkt cap > enterprise value which indicates net cash on the balance sheet.
Interesting to catch up on this trust but I don't think I'm tempted to add at these levels.
I agree ShoeShineBoy about the recent Money Makers podcasts. The one with Andrew MacHattie made a strong case for Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SREI) and he was positive about the all share offer by Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SREI) and Londonmetric Property (LON:LMP) for Picton.
And this week it became clear what a strong case there still is for BlackRock World Mining Trust (LON:BRWM) and by implication other Investment Trust alternatives like very high flying CQS Natural Resources Growth and Income (LON:CYN) . I’m likely to be wrong in thinking the share prices have peaked. I hold BlackRock World Mining Trust (LON:BRWM) CQS Natural Resources Growth and Income (LON:CYN) and Blackrock Energy and Resources Income Trust (LON:BERI) and all have rocketed, as well as Glencore (LON:GLEN) andRio Tinto (LON:RIO) .
It’s well well worth listening to both the podcasts as you suggested ShoeShineBoy.
I really liked the Pensioncraft write-up on SpaceX. It raised some points around the Nasdaq (NSQ:NDAQ) and also Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LON:SMT) that I hadn't previously realised. Presumably, the valuation that Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LON:SMT) use post-IPO will be part-market price and part-private valuation. I don't hold Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LON:SMT) and have no plans to buy shares in SpaceX. It may be a roaring success but I don't like the share structure and I have no idea if the valuation is sensible.
I can't find a link so I will re-produce the article in full here....
This week, Elon Musk's SpaceX filed for the largest initial public offering in history. My heart and head have been thrown into conflict.
I'm a self-confessed space nerd, raised on a diet of Star Trek, Arthur C. Clarke, and a cheap telescope pointed hopefully at the sky. But I'm also a valuation nerd. And valuation nerds, unfortunately, are paid to ignore the stars.
SpaceX is, by any measure, one of the most remarkable engineering companies of the twenty-first century. It launched more than 80% of the world's rockets last year. It lands its boosters back on the launchpad in perfect synchronisation. It has 10,000-odd Starlink satellites whirling overhead, beaming internet to ships, planes, war zones, and the kind of remote farmhouses that used to suffer the sound of a dial-up modem being strangled.
And the IPO itself is a cultural event as much as a financial one. For the first time, everyday investors get to own a slice of the future they were promised as children. An actual moonshot. The kind that involves real rockets, real satellites, and a roadmap that ends, with a straight face, on Mars.
And yet.
SpaceX generated $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, up 33% on the prior year. Respectable for a rocket company. Less respectable for a company asking to be valued at $1.75 trillion.
That's a price-to-sales multiple of 94. For context, Nvidia trades on around 25. Apple, around 10. Saudi Aramco, the previous record-holder for the largest IPO in history, listed at about 5.
The bottom line is worse. After folding in xAI, the combined entity reported a $4.9 billion net loss, with $41 billion of accumulated losses on the books. And the spending taps are loosening. Capex jumped from $5.6 billion in 2024 to $20.7 billion in 2025, of which $12.7 billion went on AI infrastructure.
Three businesses in a trench coat
So where's all that money going? SpaceX is now three businesses bolted together: rockets, satellites, and, since February, artificial intelligence.
The rocket business is the famous one, but it isn't the sales engine. Starlink is. The satellite internet division generated $11.4 billion of revenue last year, up nearly 50%, and $4.4 billion of operating profit, up 120%.
Meanwhile, the AI division — acquired when xAI was absorbed at an implied $250 billion — lost $6.4 billion on $3.2 billion of revenue last year. But SpaceX expects big profits in the future, telling investors it is targeting the biggest addressable market "in human history" at $28.5 trillion, of which $26.5 trillion comes from AI. If they're right, today's price could look cheap.
For now, though, Grok — Musk's chatbot — is struggling to gain traction. Thankfully, the chips are not going to waste. Anthropic has agreed to pay $15 billion a year to lease SpaceX's Colossus 1 data centres, more than covering the AI division's hardware bill.
So what's the company actually worth? Aswath Damodaran — NYU’s so-called Dean of Valuation — models the company at a fair value of $1.22 trillion. Roughly 30% below the apparent asking price. And that's Damodaran in a generous mood, baking in years of Starlink growth and assuming nothing important blows up.
Scottish Mortgage, a prominent UK investment trust that has owned SpaceX since 2018, holds the stock on its books at a valuation of $1.25 trillion. Half a trillion dollars below what SpaceX is asking the public to pay.
If the IPO lives up to the hype, it would make SpaceX the 9th most valuable company on Earth, leapfrogging Tesla. This is no ordinary IPO. In more ways than one.
Who's flying this thing?
Firstly, there just won’t be many shares available. SpaceX is selling roughly 5% of the company, the smallest free float of any mega-cap listing in modern history. This could make trading especially volatile.
Then there's who can buy in. Unusually, SpaceX will sell a portion of its IPO directly through Robinhood, Fidelity and Charles Schwab. Normally retail investors are last in the queue, picking up shares in the open market after the institutions have already had their fill, sometimes at sharply higher prices. This time they’re being allowed in at launch.
But once you're in, you'll find your influence is limited. SpaceX is using a dual-class share structure that gives Musk near total control. Class B shares get ten votes each, and lowly Class A shareholders get just one. After the IPO, Musk is expected to control around 80% of the voting power despite a much smaller ownership share. He will likely become the world’s first trillionaire in the process.
Musk can only be removed as chair or CEO by a majority vote of the class B shareholders, in effect guaranteeing his position in perpetuity.
The SpaceX board recently granted him 1.3 billion class B shares, with the award vesting in tranches as the company meets valuation milestones and technical achievements. To get the maximum payout, Musk needs to get AI data centres orbiting Earth and establish a permanent colony on Mars with at least 1 million inhabitants. (To be fair, if Musk moves to the red planet with his kids, he’ll have got a significant head start on the target.)
Cleared for takeoff
Back on Earth, the IPO is going to leave a mark on the market long before Musk gets to Mars.
By rights, the tiny free float should have ruled SpaceX out of the major indices. The indices, on reflection, have decided the rules needed updating.
Nasdaq has shortened its waiting period from 3-12 months to fifteen days, just in time for SpaceX. The company will join the Nasdaq 100 with an index weighting equal to three times the value of its floated shares. A consultation is under way over similar fast-track changes for the S&P 500, including dropping the requirement that companies be profitable.
All the passive money mechanically flowing to SpaceX has to come from somewhere. Index funds will be forced sellers of every other constituent to make room for SpaceX, with the smallest names — the candidates for eventual index deletion — feeling it hardest. Some hedge funds are already positioning to short the most vulnerable Nasdaq 100 stragglers. The pressure will only build when an unusually permissive lockup period begins to expire and insiders are free to sell, though Musk has committed not to sell stock for a year.
Final approach
Let's run the pre-flight checks. The largest IPO in history, the thinnest float of any mega-cap, a related-party AI merger the SEC is already eyeing, a controlled company where outside shareholders get a fraction of the votes for their money, and a prospectus that relies on plans involving "technologies that do not exist".
The bull case is a genuinely unique moat and a founder you would not, on the historical evidence, want to bet against. The bear case is everything else. As one analyst put it, "the valuation is completely dependent on the degree to which people believe in Elon Musk."
And SpaceX is only the opening act. OpenAI's IPO plans are imminent, and Anthropic says it is on track to turn a profit for the first time, laying the groundwork for its own flotation. The biggest, most expensive, most narrative-driven private companies of the past decade are about to become public ones, all at once. SpaceX will set the tone for whatever follows.
T-minus twenty days until SPCX starts trading. Head or heart ?
VITP Friday update - week 532
Is anyone here interested in robotics / physical AI as a theme for the next decade? I've built up holdings in KraneShares Gl Hmn and Embd IntelIdx UCITS ETF USD (LON:KOIB) WisdomTree Physical AI Humanoids and Drones UCITS - USD Acc ETF (LON:PAIG) and L&G ROBO Global Robotics and Auto UCITS ETF USDAcc (LON:ROBG) and would be interested to hear if anyone else here holds these or others.
WisdomTree issued the following recently. The case for physical AI: Why intelligence is moving from digital to the real world
Peter I bought WisdomTree Physical AI Humanoids and Drones UCITS - USD Acc ETF (LON:PAIG) a few months ago . Not done much since either way, but looks an interesting sector. A small holding but one I will look at increasing. The development in robotics in China is happening at a pace.
Definitely interested. Currently hold botz and rbot. Considering adding to both
No point going in to detail about REITS while they are mostly flatlining, but note that several of them have now updated and the tone is positive overall. Today it was the turn of Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI) and British Land (LON:BLND) to reassure.
It seems clear Commercial Property is now on the up, but share prices don’t reflect that, and with higher interest rates ahead might not for a while. I’m happy collecting the big dividends from the large number I hold, while waiting, but the lack of any posts here after all the recent positive updates, suggests interest has wained for now.
Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI) today has this useful summary on the sector. Only read until the ASSET MANAGEMENT heading. The rest of it was pasted in error:-
“The advent of the conflict in the Middle East, and its impact on inflation and interest rate expectations as well as supply chain pressures, created volatility at a time of renewed confidence in UK commercial real estate. Listed real estate share prices suffered a sharp decrease in late 2022, as interest rates rose, with associated weak valuations continuing throughout 2023 and into 2024. By mid-2024 we could see the bottom of the valuation cycle in most property sectors, yet investor confidence was weighed down by uncertainty of the November 2025 Budget.
In the three months between the Budget and the start of the conflict in Iran, Custodian Property Income REIT enjoyed a 12.3% recovery in share price, consistent with most listed real estate. What followed was sharp volatility, with the previous three months’ gains reversed by the 31 March 2026, but since then a generally upward trend in share price, recovering some of the lost ground. We believe the underlying positivity towards listed real estate can be explained by the structural forces supporting a rental growth story which will support long-term total returns.
Valuations across the Company’s portfolio have been recovering since Q3 2024, largely through positive asset management, securing lease renewals and rental growth or from delivering modern, energy efficient buildings through refurbishment. This theme has been widespread across the market with a strong focus from occupiers on good quality buildings. Subject to further negative news from the Middle East, and ongoing uncertainty over the UK government’s leadership, we expect this steady valuation recovery to continue. However, unlike in previous cycles, we do not expect this to derive from significant yield shift[9] supported by falling long-term gilt rates but from primarily asset management led rental growth.
A key support to the current delivery of positive asset management outcomes is the limited supply of modern or refurbished buildings. Supply has been restricted by limited development since 2022 in all but a few property sub-sectors, with an acute reduction in speculative projects more recently. In the two largest sectors of the Company’s portfolio, industrial and retail warehousing, which account for 42% and 22% of income respectively, the supply side effect has had the greatest impact, supporting refurbishment projects and rental growth. Over the last 12 months the portfolio has recorded like-for-like growth in estimated rental value of 4.1% in industrial and 2.7% in retail warehousing.
In addition to supply/demand dynamics, rental growth in commercial property is also driven by inflation which has been, and will likely continue to be, a feature of the economy. Build cost and labour cost inflation requires rents to grow to support refurbishment and new development. Without higher rents cost inflation will restrict supply, which will in turn put pressure on rents to grow. In short, commercial property should perform relatively well in an inflationary environment as investors are naturally drawn to real assets and the high inflation we experienced over the last few years has been met with higher rental levels across most sectors of real estate.
Unlike in 2018-2023 when rental growth was focused principally on logistics assets, which brought forward significant investment and development capital, the market is now much flatter with rental growth potential a feature of all sectors, as seen in the Custodian Property Income REIT portfolio in the year to 31 March 2026. Investors appear less focused on single sector investing and more attracted to the diversified portfolios than previously.”
Asset management
Custodian Capital Limited, the Investment Manager, has remained focused on active asset management during the Quarter, completing:
Further details of these asset management initiatives are shown below:
New leases
£0.8m of new annual rental income was added to the rent roll through the letting of four vacant units, in aggregate, in line with ERV:
Renewals/re-gears
10 lease renewals/re-gears at a combined average of 22% ahead of passing rent and 6% ahead of ERV:
Rent reviews
Three rent reviews at an average 6% ahead of previous passing rent:
Other asset management
During the Quarter, the Company acquired the freehold interest of Jubilee Close, Weymouth for £0.7m. CREIT previously held the 125 year long leasehold interest over this retail park which had 82 years remaining.
Disposals
During the Quarter, the Company sold:
Corporate acquisitions
The Board retains strong ambitions to continue scaling the business through selective portfolio acquisitions. During the Quarter the Company completed the majority-share acquisitions of Grove Court and Scorpion for an aggregate consideration of £40.3m (before costs), based on a NAV-for-NAV exchange ratio at a weighted average adjusted issuance NAV per share of 95.9p. This consideration is expected to rise to c. £41.9m[10] (before costs) once deferred consideration has been settled, comprising £29.2m equity and £12.7m cash.
The Transactions together provided the Company with a £44.4m portfolio of 12 smaller lot-size assets and added £3.4m of net rental income on day one. Respectively the properties are located on the western outskirts of Greater London and the South Midlands and are highly complementary to the Company’s existing assets. We have identified a number of opportunities to drive further value from these portfolios, including increasing rental income from upcoming lease events.
Last year’s Merlin transaction had provided a strong blueprint of how the Company can utilise the combination of its listed status and smaller-lot size investment strategy to provide a tax efficient solution to families seeking to simplify the ownership structure of their property investments.
Both Grove Court and Scorpion were long-established family property companies and the Transactions presented attractive opportunities for the sellers to solve a family succession issue by passing day-to-day operations to a professional manager and obtain a more liquid investment that is also easier to apportion to family members, in a highly tax efficient manner. At the same time the Transactions allowed the vendors to fulfil their desire to maintain the focus of their family wealth on regional real estate investments with attractive income characteristics. For the Company, the Transactions also offered compelling economic benefits, particularly when compared to acquiring the properties directly.
Borrowings
On 10 February 2026 the Company and Lloyds Bank plc agreed to extend the term of the RCF by one year to expire on 10 November 2028 and increased the RCF facility limit from £60m to £75m.
On 25 March 2026 the Company secured an asset in Dundee valued at £1.9m to its Aviva loan pool.
At 31 March 2026, the Company had £185.0m of debt drawn comprising:
At 31 March 2026, the Company’s borrowing facilities were:
Variable rate borrowing
Fixed rate borrowing
Each facility has a discrete security pool, comprising a number of individual properties, over which the relevant lender has security and covenants:
Portfolio analysis
At 31 March 2026, the investment property portfolio was split between the main commercial property sectors, in line with the Company’s objective to maintain a suitably balanced investment portfolio. Sector weightings are shown below:
31 March 2026
31 December 2025
Sector
Valuation
£m
Weighting by value
Weighting by income
Quarter valuation movement
£m
Quarter valuation movement
Weighting by value
Weighting by income
Industrial
332.2
50%
42%
1.6
0.5%
51%
43%
Retail warehouse
138.8
21%
22%
-
-
22%
22%
Other[11]
100.7
15%
15%
(0.2)
(0.2%)
13%
14%
Office
59.5
8%
14%
(0.1)
(0.5%)
9%
14%
High street retail
38.1
6%
7%
(0.3)
(0.8%)
5%
7%
Total
669.3
100%
100%
1.0
100%
100%
For details of all properties in the portfolio please see custodianreit.com/property-portfolio.
Board
Elizabeth McMeikan stepped down from the Board of McBride plc on 31 March 2026.
- Ends -
Further information:
Further information regarding the Company can be found at the Company's website custodianreit.com or please contact:
Custodian Capital Limited
Richard Shepherd-Cross – Managing Director
Ed Moore – Finance Director
Ian Mattioli MBE DL – Chairman
Tel: +44 (0)116 240 8740
www.custodiancapital.com
Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch
Hugh Jonathan / George Shiel
Tel: +44 (0)20 7260 1000
www.DBnumis.com/funds
FTI Consulting
Richard Sunderland / Ellie Sweeney / Andrew Davis / Oliver Parsons
Tel: +44 (0)20 3727 1000
@fticonsulting.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">custodianreitFTI Consulting (NYQ:FCN).com
Notes to Editors
Custodian Property Income REIT plc is a UK real estate investment trust, which listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange on 26 March 2014. Its portfolio comprises properties predominantly let to institutional grade tenants throughout the UK and is principally characterised by smaller, regional, core/core-plus properties.
The Company offers investors the opportunity to secure an attractive level of income with the potential for capital growth through a diversified portfolio of UK commercial real estate comprising principally smaller, regional, core/core-plus properties, accessed via a closed-ended listed fund.
Custodian Capital Limited is the discretionary investment manager of the Company.
For more information visit custodianreit.com and custodiancapital.com.
[1] European Public Real Estate Association.
[2] EPRA EPS: Profit after tax, excluding depreciation and net gains on investment property, divided by weighted average number of shares in issue (excluding treasury shares) during the Quarter.
[3] Based on 84.5p share price as at market close on 19 May 2026.
[4] Adjusting for property acquisitions, disposals and capital expenditure.
[5] Grove Court Properties (Holdings) Limited (“Grove Court”) and Scorpion Properties Limited (“Scorpion”).
[6] NAV per share movement including dividends paid during the Quarter on shares (excluding treasury shares) in issue at 31 December 2025.
[7] Gross borrowings less cash (excluding rent deposits) divided by property portfolio and solar panel valuations.
[8] A quarterly interim dividend of 1.5p per share was paid during the Quarter, relating to Q3, on shares in issue on the associated 16 January 2026 record date.
[9] Yield shift refers to a change in the percentage return (yield) an investor receives on a property due to movement in its capital value due to investor market sentiment rather than movement in rental expectations.
[10] Comprising: issuing 27.9m new shares and paying cash consideration of £12.4m during the Quarter; plus 1.4m further new shares and cash of £0.3m cash to satisfy deferred consideration.
[11] Comprises drive-through restaurants, car showrooms, trade counters, gymnasiums, restaurants and leisure units.
Dissemination of a Regulatory Announcement that contains inside information in accordance with the Market Abuse Regulation (MAR), transmitted by EQS Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
View original content: EQS News
Thanks Ken.
Re:REITS I have been adding to Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) and TR Property Investment Trust (LON:TRY) on down days - both have 15 yrs+ of maintaining/increasing divis, which makes me more comfortable in the 'sit and get paid while I wait' approach.
Thanks Bouden.
Agree about Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) but TR Property Investment Trust (LON:TRY) has never appealed with too small yield to tempt me.
In case of interest these are our current REIT holdings and current gains and losses EXCLUDING those big dividends. Yields in this post are now, and not at my buy prices.
Aew UK Reit (LON:AEWU) + 45%.Yield 7.6%. Looks fully valued.
Alternative Income REIT (LON:AIRE) 25% 7.6% yield. Recent bid approach looks either a damp squib or at not much higher than the current share price.
Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SREI) +25% Yield 7.6%. Doubt that Londonmetric Property (LON:LMP) will bid now. Looks too cheap though.
Social Housing REIT (LON:SOHO) +1% Dividend 8%. Tempting? Recent buy.
Supermarket Income REIT (LON:SUPR) +8% Yield 7.4%. Unexciting?
Land Securities (LON:LAND) Recent buy with part stake. Hope to get the chance to average down. +2% and 6.8% yield. As with British Land (LON:BLND) who reported today LAND is well worth checking out. I’ll be buying British Land (LON:BLND) on any dip, but dividend yield not quite high enough to tempt me yet, despite the increase announced this week.
Londonmetric Property (LON:LMP) Another fairly recent buy. DOWN 9%. 6.6% yield. Big FTSE100 Trust. Looks good value.
Value and Indexed Property Income Trust (LON:VIP) Another fairly recent buy. DOWN 5%. Yield 6.7%. Wide spread and alternatives look better for now.
Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI) Another recent buy. + 9% Yield 7.1%. No share price reaction today to latest very positive update. Well worth checking out.
Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) +2% and 7.8% yield. Another well worth considering.
Real Estate Credit Investments (LON:RECI) +5%. Yield 10%. Probably limited upside as focus is on income.
Newriver Reit (LON:NRR) Flat. Yield 8.7%. Looks too cheap. Well worth checking out.
Ken
Thanks for that list.
I own many of those.
The one that worries me most is Real Estate Credit Investments (LON:RECI).
From 2022 to 2026, it has been paying an uncovered dividend.
The NAV has declined from 151p to 141.4p
It seems to me that they are paying the dividend out of capital and thus that capital is declining.
Hardman's forecast for 03/27 is 12.1p and NAV of 142.9p
So a "just" covered dividend and a small increase in NAV.
Let's hope they are right, otherwise the RECI share price will slowly decline.
Agree Chris and as Real Estate Credit Investments (LON:RECI) has limited share price upside, I’m going to wait for their next update before deciding whether to continue to hold. Others including Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI) who reported yesterday and Londonmetric Property (LON:LMP) who reported today look far more tempting.
I'm with you on both Real Estate Credit Investments (LON:RECI) . Will need to see a better performance in recurring cash generation.
I topped up some Londonmetric Property (LON:LMP) TODAY.
Ken - wondered if you had run the slide rule over RGL? I've topped up today. Huge discount to NAV and a tasty yield. Yes, its office space (maybe not flavour of the year), but around 62% of their portfolio is A or B rated - so increasingly in demand as new / tougher regs hit. And that is being reflected in the rising rent figures they are able to obtain.
Oakbloke did a recent update / appraisal and again seemed convinced it was perhaps a good time to invest.
Certainly for for folks to research.
Hi Lincs
I follow Regional REIT (LON:RGL) for a more definite buy opportunity, but sold a while ago. For now it’s a risky punt with (unless an unlikely bid) limited share prices upside. For my occasional risky punts I’m looking for big share prices gain.
Regional REIT (LON:RGL) has a long record of over optimistic updates. e.g this time; that 62% of their portfolio being either A or B glosses over more than a third of their portfolio that isn’t!
Other negatives are far too high, 25% vacancies, along with disposals including occupied properties and not enough of the vacant ones. Debt is still high but it’s good that a big loan due for repayment this year has now been extended to 2028.
A big plus is 98%. Rent collection.
Dividend has been cut again. Is current 8p level sustainable and covered looking ahead?
Arguably the negatives are now priced in and the 50% discount to NAV (assuming that figure reflects reality) suggests Regional REIT (LON:RGL) is worth a punt. Against that there are other quality REITS with similar dividend yields that imo appeal far more
Thanks for your input Ken - much appreciated.
I am thinking that the 60% + level of A & B rated properties is apparently double their peer group average - so some have a lot of catching up to do. Sure, there are exceptions, some having even higher levels of A & B rated properties, but those aren't displaying the same level of discount to NAV. Happy to hold / add at the mo.
I own quite a few REITS but holding off adding anymore with interest rates looking like moving higher over the next 12 - 18 mths. Even the USA looks like their will be a 50% chance of an interest rate hike before the end of the year.
Agree about the interest rate risk, but so does the market, so hopefully it’s already priced in. There’s the plus pull of clear signs the sector is recovering against the negative holding back the share prices of higher interest rates. I.e the sector is ripe for recovery in time.
For short term gains the sector is unattractive. For building a Commercial Property portfolio if not already holding, now could be a very good time, not least to lock in the current high dividend yields at least for half stakes. Then use the other half to average down or up, depending how World events and Trump’s complete idiocy unfold.
Appreciate the update on REITS Ken. I sold out of Aew UK Reit (LON:AEWU) and Alternative Income REIT (LON:AIRE) as agree they are fully valued. Supermarket Income REIT (LON:SUPR) is too but seems to have access to funding to keep growing so have kept that. Unexciting sounds about right but that's fine.
Happy holder of Newriver Reit (LON:NRR) too and will take that level of divi and reduce the cash that always tempts me to look for other opportunities. Tritax Big Box REIT (LON:BBOX) has a decent yield, over 5%, and a 20% discount to NAV since the Iran War started so scope for recovery in due course. Paying over 5% while we wait too. Also holding GCP Infrastructure Investments (LON:GCP) yielding over 9% with 25% disc to latest NAV if that can be relied upon. Seems fairly stable now.
Not fully convinced on the wider property front yet but watching those you mentioned plus Shaftesbury Capital (LON:SHC) as West End will always be in demand for one reason or another. Lower yield at 3.5% or so but discount has widened to nearly 40% with price down at 132p. Can always be too clever trying to time these things.
Thanks for the reply sevenccc.
Tritax Big Box REIT (LON:BBOX) dividend yield is too low for me, but I’m hoping for a dip buy chance.
Also well worth considering are FTSE 100 shares Land Securities (LON:LAND) (I bought recently) andBritish Land (LON:BLND) where like BBOX the yield isn’t quite tempting enough, but will be if a modest dip.
I also hold GCP Infrastructure Investments (LON:GCP) .
Key point.
Those US tech valuations now like SPACE X are big bubble madness, with similarities to the dot com bubble at the turn of the century that saw subsequent massive falls for the NASDAQ. Then it was quality shares and Trusts that were the ones to hold up ok, and will probably be this time too.
And Commercial Property Trusts can ride it out well too.
I’ve looked at the share price falls at their worst in previous bear markets for blue chip type, quality Trusts and shares, and the standard worst point declines for those were around 35%. But key point is that was to the very bottom and investors holding plenty of cash could soon cash in on the big recovery opportunity ahead.
And high quality big yielding portfolios can ride out those falls…..as share price recovery for the vast majority of them will be near certainty. Same applies to an Investment Trust portfolio …..see the VITP portfolio for some evidence for that.
Also the regular big dividend yields mitigate that share price downside AND provide the free cash for the buy/top up the big dip opportunity.
I generally go for high-yield, but have a little in Agronomics (LON:ANIC) , partly because of Jim Mellon's track record. This RNS came out last week and seems to have not got logged on the Stocko RNS news list.
"Agronomics Limited (AIM: ANIC), the leading listed company focused on clean food, is pleased to announce that its portfolio company SuperMeat The Essence of Meat Ltd. ("SuperMeat") has completed an initial closing of its Series A-4 financing round, raising US$ 6 million from Agronomics and New Agrarian Company Limited ("New Agrarian"), an affiliated company. Milk & Honey Ventures and other existing investors have also subscribed as part of a targeted US$ 10 million financing.
Agronomics is investing US$ 5 million in the round through the issue of new ordinary shares in the Company to SuperMeat, with New Agrarian participating with a US$ 1 million cash investment.
The US$ 5 million consideration due from Agronomics will be satisfied in full by the issue of 26,805,903 new ordinary shares of the Company, each new share issued at a price equal to 13.78 pence (being the net asset value per share as at 31 December 2025 and a premium of approximately 109% to the closing mid-market price of 6.60 pence on 8 May 2026). The new shares shall be subject to agreed lock-in and orderly market arrangements for a year from Admission. In particular, SuperMeat shall be restricted in relation to its shareholding from a) releasing more than 1/12th of the Agronomics shares per calendar month, b) trading more than 10% of the prior day's volume, c) trading below 95% opening price, and d) appointing a third-party broker without first giving a right of first refusal to the Company's appointed broker(s) to sell their shares. The lock-in restrictions will not apply in certain circumstances such as an offer for the Company.
SuperMeat is focused on the production of cultivated meat. The funding is expected to support SuperMeat's commercialisation strategy through a licensing-led model, with Switzerland identified as the initial target launch market. SuperMeat has entered into an R&D and technology development framework agreement with Ajinomoto and has extended its collaboration agreement with Micarna, a subsidiary of Migros Group. Near-term milestones include joint product development with Ajinomoto, a consumer validation study led by Migros in Switzerland, process verification at commercial scale and a Swiss regulatory submission. SuperMeat is also progressing a reorganisation under a UK holding company as it continues its international expansion.
This follows SuperMeat's November 2025 fundraise of US$ 3.5 million through the issue of a Simple Agreement for Future Equity (a "SAFE"), in which Agronomics invested US$ 2 million, comprising US$ 0.75 million in cash and US$ 1.25 million in new Agronomics shares, with Milk & Honey Ventures also participating.
SuperMeat has also reported a number of operational milestones in recent periods. In March 2024, it published a life-cycle analysis conducted by CE Delft which estimated that its cultivated chicken could generate approximately 50% lower carbon emissions than conventionally farmed chicken. In November 2024, SuperMeat announced a cost-efficiency milestone indicating the potential to produce 100% cultivated chicken (85% muscle, 15% fat) at an estimated cost of approximately US$ 11.79 per pound at scale, broadly in line with premium pasture-raised chicken in the US.
Jim Mellon, Executive Chair of Agronomics, said: "SuperMeat's Series A-4 financing marks an important step in its development and reflects continued progress towards commercial launch. Having supported the business since 2020, we believe the company is well positioned to advance its licensing-led strategy and we are pleased to continue backing the team through this next phase of growth."
Agronomics first invested in SuperMeat in December 2020 and, following this investment, will have invested a total of £15.2 million. As part of the Series A-4 round, the November 2025 SAFE investment has converted into equity, with the shares now forming part of Agronomics' holding in SuperMeat. Following the completion of this round, Agronomics will hold approximately 27.8% of SuperMeat on a fully diluted basis. The Series A 4 fundraise is not expected to have a material impact on the Company's carrying value of its investment in SuperMeat."
Agronomics (LON:ANIC) is trading at around 50% below its NAV, so it's interesting to me that they have managed to support this round with paper at >100% premium, which is rare. Any thoguhts welcome. It's speculative, but I'm hoping it becomes the next Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIT) . That's because I believe that a handful of the investee compan ies, if they can get to price parity and scale, will become hugely valuable kin the next couple of years. Thoughts welcome!
(And I couldn't help myself: after much deliberation, family stakes in Renewables Infrastructure (LON:TRIG) and Foresight Environmental Infrastructure (LON:FGEN) today. 10.5% yield that both have strategies to maintain. NAVs have been tested hard, and the prices are still at c. 30% discounts.
Oakley Capital Investments (LON:OCI) Citywire write up. I hold.https://citywire.com/investmen...
Has anyone managed to decipher the Riverstone Energy (LON:RSE) RNS this morning to establish what is left in terms of NAV/holdings after the distribution last week.
I appreciate I only briefly looked at it this morning as I needed to get out on the golf course, but it was not easy to decipher.
I am still holding some of my Riverstone Energy (LON:RSE) but am inclined to cut my losses if there doesn't appear to be any upside on the horizon.
Had only a quick look Kevin as I am in Porto. Could not see anything that made me think I should sell. Was a reference to supporting a business to maximise sale value.
Kevin.
You were unlucky buying at about the highest price of that day after my inaccurate post on Riverstone Energy (LON:RSE) which caused a flurry of buys. I still feel bad about it!
Unless you are like Charles and happy to wait patiently for a better sell opportunity, then a sell decision makes sense. There could well be another compulsory tender offer near to NAV …but when?
I sold for a 2% loss. There’s no dividend while we wait and I preferred to get most of the cash back for other opportunities. BUT there is still that big discount to NAV and a good chance of a profitable outcome eventually…..but is it really worth waiting patiently for a probably modest profit?
Ken, I appreciate your comments, but its in no way any fault of yours - we all make our own decisions, and I appreciate anyone bringing forward ideas for investigation - if we decide after investigation to invest then we can only blame ourselves if our thesis doesn't come through.
I have now sold out (last rump was around close of play on Tuesday) - not because there "could" be a positive outcome, but more on my concerns that the bond market could be about to cause a serious market moment.
Whilst still only about 20% cash, I am looking at potentially going further - this will also allow me a period of time to potentially do some more consolidation and when I go back into the market I will likely find myself with a much smaller spread of investments - I haven't done any detailed analysis, but was thinking along the lines of maybe 10-15 IT/ETF's covering 70-80% and then the rest restricted to a maximum of 10 individual holdings.
Whilst nobody can time the market perfectly there does seem to me to be a lot of pressure on equities currently and absolutely no sign currently of the secondary effects of the Iran war. This does though need to be balanced with the fact that companies are still producing some excellent results. When looking at PKA's PF holdings the other day along with a number of others, I was surprised at how so many charts were at such highs.
We have a lot of companies presenting at MELLO 2026. A great opportunity for keen investment company investors & followers to meet a variety of portfolio managers across the two days of the event 2nd & 3rd June.
@Harbourvest Global Private Equity (LON:HVPE) Rockwood Strategic (LON:RKW) Onward Opportunities (LON:ONWD) EJF Investments (LON:EJFI) B.P. Marsh & Partners (LON:BPM) Oxford Technology CT UK Capital and Income Investment Trust (LON:CTUK) CT Global Managed Portfolio Trust (LON:CMPG) Merchants Trust (LON:MRCH) Brunner Investment Trust (LON:BUT) Odyssean Investment Trust (LON:OIT) Nippon Active Value Fund (LON:NAVF) Ruffer Investment (LON:RICA) JPMorgan Asset Management will all be showcased at the event.
Hopefully many keen investment company investors can come along. If you are new to Mello, use code NEWBIE for a £30 a day ticket.
Stocko & Mello regulars can use code Stockopedia25 for 25% off.
Are there any holders of Global X European SuperDividend UCITS ETF EUR Dist (LON:EUSP) here ? I am trying to find out any dividend history for the GBP version. It looks like the EUR version has paid out 7% over the last year, but I cant find any info for the UK version.
Re LON:SDIP Try this site (it apparently pays out monthly and goes ex div on 21/05/26 for the May dividend) - https://stockanalysis.com/quot...
Thanks EZ, but there is a difference between SDIP & EUSP. SDIP looks to be the UCITS version of SDIV, but the holdings between the EUSP & SDIV are different. I would hazard a guess that the 'European' version has only the European holdings of the US ETF.
Hi EZ .... your site came good after all, but your link is to SDIP ! So 5.4% for those interested. (The SDIP is 8.91%) https://stockanalysis.com/quot... (many thanks again :o))
iShares £ Ultrashort Bond GBP ETF (ERNS) 11.0%
Some nice stuff in there aka. I;ll take a look at a couple that seem of interest - I already hold VanEck Ms Developed Markets Div Lead UCITS ETF (LON:TDGB) and I suspect I have similar holdings in other gold funds.
Thanks for sharing.
Thanks KevinS1. My investment strategy has evolved into having some defensive assets in the form of ERNS (a short-term bond ETF) and CGT and PNL (multi-asset investment trusts) together with a reasonably diversified set of large ETFs (with assets greaer than £500 million) that are selected using the JustETF website with the rules that they should all have positive 1-year and 6-month previous returns and prices above their 200-day simple moving averages, and also have highish values of (1-year previous return / 1-year previous volatility) although I ignore bond ETFs that can have very high values of this measure due to their very low volatilities. I try also to avoid buying ETFs with 1-year volatilities greater than 30% in order to reduce risk, and also to have lower weightings in the more volatile ETFs for the same reason. I use ETFs rather than ITs nowadays (apart from CGT and PNL) because: ETFs (unfairly in my view) do not incur 0.5% stamp duty on purchase whereas ITs do, large ETFs tend to have smaller bid-offer spreads than ITs, and ETFs tend to be less volatile than ITs because ETFs always trade at NAV whereas ITs don't. I've been following this 'absolute momentum' ETF strategy for about two and a half years now, and so far it has worked well (with better returns and smaller draw-downs so far than a global equity index tracker fund). But that might just be because the past two and a half years has been a favourable period for this type of strategy. However, I do trade some ETFs in my portfolio every few weeks, and this requires quite a lot of effort, in researching and deciding which ETFs to trade, and also in the administrative work needed to keep track of a changing portfolio.
Molten Ventures (LON:GROW) (I hold)
Molten Ventures (LSE: GROW), a leading venture capital firm investing in and developing high-growth technology businesses, announces a further partial realisation of its holding in Revolut, generating proceeds of circa £63 million.
To date, Molten has now realised proceeds of circa £120 million from its investment in Revolut, delivering a multiple on invested capital of approximately 20x. The remaining holding in Revolut is valued at circa £110 million based on the anticipated 31 March 2026 year end valuation.
As reported in the Full Year Trading Update on 27 April 2026, Revolut was among the key contributors to the Gross Portfolio Value (“GPV”) increase of 11% to circa £1,520 million as at 31 March 2026. This GPV growth was also driven by strong performance from others in the Core Portfolio including ICEYE, Ledger and Riverlane.
I hold both HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) and Literacy Capital (LON:BOOK) . Both used to trade near NAV now at 33% discounts. I will hold on. Below is aan AI summary of why I think they are worth holding.
The outlook for both **HgCapital Trust (HGT)** and **Literacy Capital (BOOK)** boils down to a classic mismatch between a tough public stock market and a resilient private operational reality.
While their share prices are suffering from wider market pessimism, their underlying businesses are fundamentally sound and well-capitalized.
1. HgCapital Trust (HGT): Weathering the Tech Multiple Storm
The near-term outlook for HGT is tied entirely to sentiment in the public software markets.
The Short-Term Headwind
HGT’s Q1 2026 financial update showed that a severe contraction in public tech valuation multiples dragged its Net Asset Value (NAV) down by 5.4% (to £5.28 per share). Even though the underlying companies grew their earnings by 5% during the quarter, it wasn't enough to fully offset the **9% hit to valuations** caused by the public market tech sell-off.
* Until public markets stabilize and the panic over AI disrupting traditional enterprise software passes, HGT's valuation multiples (which dropped from 25.2x to 24.0x) could face further compression.
The Long-Term Strengths
* **Earnings are Buffering the Hit:** HGT's underlying portfolio companies are highly defensive. They boast **16% revenue growth, 19% EBITDA growth, and 34% profit margins**, meaning they are generating huge amounts of free cash. Over time, this compounding growth will organicially rebuild the NAV.
* **Proven Realizations:** HGT continues to successfully exit businesses at a premium. They realized **£91 million in cash** in Q1 2026 alone, including the full exit of *Intelerad* and a partial sale of *Septeo* at substantial uplifts. The exit of *Geomatikk* is scheduled to close soon, which will bring in even more liquidity.
2. Literacy Capital (BOOK): Rebounded Balance Sheet & Hidden Value
BOOK's outlook has dramatically improved on a structural level over the last few weeks, even if the share price doesn't reflect it yet.
The Short-Term Headwind
Like HGT, its Q1 2026 NAV dipped slightly (-0.6% to 481.3p) due to a mix of expenses, charitable donations, and conservative adjustments to their valuation multiples (now down to a historically low **9.2x EV/EBITDA**). Performance remains mixed, as the trust continues to work through the operational challenges at *RCI Group* and *Grayce*.
The Turnaround Catalysts
The "Net Cash" Breakthrough:** The massive cash inflows from the sales of *Tyrefix* (February) and *Wifinity* (April) brought in over £31 million. Literacy Capital has officially **returned to a net cash position for the first time since 2021,completely wiping out its revolving credit facility debt and dramatically lowering its financing costs.
*Fresh Growth Drivers: The trust's 2025-vintage platform investments, *Red Sky Food Group* and *Trinitatum*, are on an exceptional upward growth trajectory. Management expects both to break into the Top 10 largest holdings by June, providing fresh growth engines to pick up the slack from RCI.
Addressing the Discount:** CEO Richard Pindar announced that the company is launching a wave of marketing and investor education initiatives over the summer to directly address the 33% discount and bring new buyers into the stock.
Summary of the Outlook
Main Short-Term Risk | Main Mid-Term Catalyst | Valuation Reality
HgCapital (HGT)** | Continued public tech multiple compression. | High-margin portfolio cash generation & corporate buybacks. | Heavy 33% discount; underlying EBITDA growth remains strong at +19%. |
|Literacy Capital (BOOK)** | Sluggish public sector contract demand for RCI. | Debt-free balance sheet; rapid expansion of new assets (*Red Sky*). | Heavily insulated by a fresh net cash position; portfolio valued at a very conservative 9.2x. |
The Bottom Line:For both trusts, the operational engines are still running fast. The outlook is a waiting game: they are using their cash reserves to buy back shares (HGT) or clean up balance sheets (BOOK) while waiting for the UK and European small-cap/tech markets to cycle back into favor.
All good and fine, but the main reason why the shares have crashed and are trading at significant discount to NAV is that nobody knows for sure how the terminal value of software businesses will be impacted from AI and at what multiples software businesses can be sold in the next 5 years. This will not be resolved in the near term as this uncertainty will continue to persist. That’s why I don’t think you will see any near term share price appreciation and why I would stay away from software ITs.
Investor Meet Company this coming week.
3i Infrastructure (LON:3IN) 3I INFRASTRUCTURE PLC
Full Year Results
20th May 2026 at 1:30pm BST
Grainger (LON:GRI) GRAINGER PLC
Half year financial results for the six months ended 31 March 2026
20th May 2026 at 3:15pm BST
I just bought Grainger but will have to listen later as we are in Porto next week.
Saba now have 19% pf SDCL Efficiency Income Trust (LON:SEIT) and Jeffries 8%, I believe. What is the end game here any thoughts?
VITP update - week 531
Info for anyone else holding Alternative Income REIT (LON:AIRE) . Possible cash offer from Glenstone REIT announced near to the close today. Link to that statement:-
https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
Is reality about to strike with US Markets at illogical all time highs?
Gilt yields rising there and here. Strait of Hormuz still closed. Higher Inflation (Perhaps much higher inflation) looks a certainty along with rising interest and mortgage rates. Intense cost pressures on Supermarkets and other retailers makes price rises inevitable. And Middle East news could get worse. So could chaotic UK!
I’ve already top sliced heavily. Yet again CQS Natural Resources Growth and Income (LON:CYN) and BlackRock World Mining Trust (LON:BRWM) have hit £4 and £10 and then fallen back. Holders surely have big profits……..final opportune top slice opportunity? Certainly a good time to have plenty of cash from top slices and sells in our accounts.
Hi ken
Most of the US market rise is driven by AI. The overallocation of capital is going to cause serious problems at some point, but irrational exuberance can continue for much longer than expected. Here in the UK the market still looks undervalued - we've seen bids at serious premiums for Intertek (LON:ITRK) , Spire Healthcare (LON:SPI) and Tate & Lyle (LON:TATE) just this week. Rumours swirling round Legal & General (LON:LGEN) and ITV (LON:ITV) too.
Of course, if the whole AI thesis blows up everything will be caught in the blast. But in the end value will out. Many UK stocks are just too cheap, although if they're effectively bond proxies then the current government identity crisis may see them go lower in the next weeks.
timarr
Hi timarr
I agree with all your key points. Should have made it clearer that it’s only where we have too good to miss profits on Trusts that have soared perhaps too far, rather than as my post read, top slice across the board. e.g note that Anglo American (LON:AAL) and Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) are down 7% and 9% today.
I’m not top slicing any of my big quality big dividend paying shares and Trusts except where as was the case with CQS Natural Resources Growth and Income (LON:CYN) and BlackRock World Mining Trust (LON:BRWM) they became too big a proportion of the portfolio. Why cut the income from the big dividends by top slicing and the more so with bidders going for undervalued UK shares?
Even after some big gains, shares I hold bought much better prices than now like Aviva (LON:AV.) M&G (LON:MNG) Aberdeen (LON:ABDN) Chesnara (LON:CSN) Legal & General (LON:LGEN) TP Icap (LON:TCAP) I’m not selling with the yields all in double figures.
Also quality Trusts like City Of London Investment Trust (LON:CTY) and many others like that can be held too. This is the big plus for buying on big dips; even another severe bear market provides shelter from the falls.
Invesco ChiNext 50 UCITS Acc ETF (LON:CHNX) available through Interactive Investor now (it wasn't last year when I was looking for it). Chinese equivalent of the Nasdaq - a bit racy at the moment.
As said I cut my exposure to India to a small holding in Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust (LON:AIE) which is down 18%. At the current level not inclined to sell. The India market is on a p/e of 20 which is near the cheapest of 18x. Vietnam- which maybe has better growth prospects trades ona P/E of 13.4x, which is pretty average for Vietnam, but discounts, in my opinion, the Emerging status (FTSE only at moment but MSCI should follow) and growth prospects. Japan is on a P/E of around 20. China is on a multiple of 15x which is historically a modest rating.
If the Oil situation can be sorted then all these markets could be worth looking at.
I lost patience in Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust (LON:AIE) earlier in the year and recycled the money into Fidelity Emerging Markets (LON:FEML) which was an extremely lucky move - it appears that FEML has responded positively with large holdings in chips/electronics which have done well recently.
I need to look to see if I should be topping up, but also consider getting back into Nippon Active Value Fund (LON:NAVF) which I sold off around the time of the Iran war starting - not a great move as it is up 10% since then.
My Vietnam holding Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF 1C (LON:XFVT) hasn't done as well (up only 3% since end of Feb when things kicked-off), but I see this as being a winner in the longer-term especially as its EM status kicks in later in 2026.
I hold FEML, NAVF and XFVT. Agree all look good for the medium term. AIE I hope will recover post-war.
I see the Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIC) shares have been credited to my HL account and are now fully trading - these are the "C" shares.
Looks like in early trading they were up by about 2.5%, but have now settled around 1.5% up.
Will be interesting to see how these progress over the next few months.
We're selling a house shortly since the decease of a relative for whom I had financial responsibility. Proceeds, some of which will come to me, will either sit in a bank pending a larger decision, or possibly be parked, partially at least in some REITs. I can't help noticing the Grainger (LON:GRI) is a near dead ringer for actually buying a share in a BTL, but without having to administer it oneself. But the price just seems to go down. It's now a 50% discount to book value. Can those you with great in depth knowledge explain to me what the deeper risks -aside from depressed share price- of such an investment might be under current/ongoing circumstances? Usually those would be some kind of liquidity event like a default on loans, but a property company of this scale is by its nature highly securitised and has cash flow from all those tenancies. I also see from the RNS yesterday that it has agreed new financing arrangements on its debt, which all seems very positive. That leaves a dividend of 5.8%, which is roughly competitive with the top UK government gilts, but of course with that huge discount to NAV. Or are we to say that UK debt is at an equivalent discount to true value? (Only partly in jest!)
It appears on Stocko under the Benjamin Graham deep value screen, which includes a number of property companies.
Benjamin Graham Deep Value Checklist Stock Screen | Stockopedia
Views appreciated. And in the meantime, here's that RNS, which I thought quite reassuring.
Grainger PLC Grainger extends core banking facility to 2033 - ADVFN
Grainger, the UK's largest listed residential landlord and leader in Build to Rent, today announces that it has agreed an extension on £540m of its core banking facilities to 2033 with AIB, Barclays, HSBC and NatWest.
The extensions further strengthen the company's balance sheet with weighted average facility maturity including extension options increasing to 4.6 years.
The extensions were agreed at lower margins, resulting in an annual saving of c.£1m in finance costs.
This is in line with Grainger's previously stated plan to deleverage by £300-350m by FY29, targeting an LTV of 30% and Net Debt to EBITDA of 8x.
Hi Brucie
I've been thinking of buying Grainger (LON:GRI) for a year now and still it declines ...
I don't think there's much wrong with the company, it's more the environment. We have an unstable government which is pushing bond rates higher, mortgage rates rising and no certainty of short-term reductions and concerns over the Renter's Act (which overall is probably good for GRI, but may be a drag on performance).
However, if you want to be negative the company carries a lot of debt. Under normal circumstances that isn't a problem with GRI's earnings profile but if interest rates go up and property valuations fall ... it becomes a problem. Their Net debt to EBITDA is unusually high - although CLS Holdings (LON:CLI) is higher. In theory this is a growth problem, but if they're unlucky and a UK financial crisis unfolds they may be exposed.
Personally I want dirt cheap in this situation - but that may happen with GRI soon. If not then if we ever get back to something akin to political stability they'd be a buy at higher levels.
timarr
Thanks Timarr. The paradox of Mr. Market, which I also feel when seemingly we are offered value too good to be true... we mainly appreciate it when it's passed. As you say, cheap can always get cheaper. I seem to remember Legal & General (LON:LGEN) available at 20p in2008 while offering a dividend of 20%. But my reluctance to buy it was also part of a protective paranoia that saved me from the worst of the banking crisis, when I refused my broker' s recommendation to triple down on RBS on basis that it could never be allowed to go bankrupt. Wrt housing, the problem seems to be that while we don't have nearly enough housing stock, what is built is no longer generally affordable to buy. This is odd for a properly functioning market where price points generally meet demand. But there is general refusal to allow the only solution that I can see, which is for a bursting of property values back into the realms of the affordable, at which point people could start buying and builders continue to build. I'm sure I've missed something important in there, including land values, which of course supplies house builders with their ultimate bargaining chip. They can simply sit on the land rather than crystallised a loss. Posters on the Grainger (LON:GRI) BB are saying that this is exactly what the company should do, while buying back shares like no tomorrow.
Hmm. A quandary. For time being the commercial REITs seem to offer more compelling stories. But I'm very tempted to make a move in due course.
Just looked at Grainger results. Looks good value to me and they seem confident higher interest rates will not affect them in the short term. 21 periods of dividend growth is encouraging. I hold Spire Healthcare (LON:SPI) And if the price gets anywhere the 250 offer price announced this morning will be out. That holding has been very up and down for me over the last 18 months. Proceeds into Grainger.
Thanks Charles. Results looked strong to me and Grainger (LON:GRI) continues to be a favourite of Paul Scott, whose subscription blog is well worth the price! However, the drip drip in share price continues, notwithstanding a resilient and growing bond like yield, against a 50% discount to book. With new money, I would probably be picking some up off the floor as well.
I bought some today and will buy more over the next few weeks depending on price movement. Annoyingly- and typically Spire Healthcare (LON:SPI) did not get that near the possible offer price- I am up but it has been a frustrating investment. Given the history I will sell 50% anyway.
Me too, Charles. Just started downpayment on a modest position for the charity folio I manage. I can see it going further down before we see capitulation. Among catalysts for rerating may include vulture funds, or likes of Mike Ashley..?
Doesn't look to me to be the best investment EPS is a bit volatile, forward PE ratio is still a bit high given the nature of the business and free cash flow not great either for Dividend cover. However, clearly they continue to invest in properties which and the rental market will need more properties like this going forward as individual renters sell off with change in tax and regulations. 50% discount and a 10 year low, not sure the market is seeing significant earnings growth potential. Feel free to chip away at this I haven't done a deep dive.
Doesn't look to me to be the best investment EPS is a bit volatile, forward PE ratio is still a bit high given the nature of the business and free cash flow not great either for Dividend cover
Grainger (LON:GRI) has converted into a REIT and has a massive development pipeline so interpreting the figures takes a bit of work. But roughly you're looking at over 96% occupancy - it's a very stable and predictable income stream.
Because of the build out traditional FCF looks poor as you have to subtract the capital expenditures for construction - genuine one off funding as opposed to ongoing maintenance.
On top of that, as a REIT, they need to pay out 90% of statutory rental profits to shareholders to keep the corporation tax benefits - which they're doing by selling older, low yielding properties. As dividends are paid out of EPRA earnings, which track real cashflows and not accounting adjustments the payout is fully covered. Net rental income increased by 7.8%. Overall they have dividend cover of about 1.45.Anyway, I bought a few this week. It's never going to shoot any lights out but it's likely to provide a safe, growing income for many years to come. Annual rental growth is expected to be around 3% to 3.5% but the dividend growth is expected to be around 9%, driven by the new properties being delivered. If achieved that will do very nicely.
timarr
Mello's Investment Trusts & Funds webinar is back today (12th May) from 1pm and it is FREE to join. We have three very different investment companies presenting so hopefully something of interest for most!
More details and registration is available here: https://www.melloevents.com/mitf120526
The agenda is as follows:
1:00pm Company Presentation from IP (LON:IPO)
Chris Glasson (Finance Director) will be presenting and available for questions
1:30pm Company Presentation from JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust (LON:JFJ)
Emily Whiting (MD, Investment Specialist, Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific) will be presenting and available for questions
2:00pm Company Presentation from Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI)
Richard Shepherd-Cross (Managing Director, Custodian Capital) will be presenting and available for questions
Do join us to learn about each company investment opportunity from presenters and they will be available for your questions. Look forward to seeing you all on zoom tomorrow.
If you cannot make the webinar due to timing, you can register for the event and the recording will be distributed within a couple of days.
David
Not sure why all involved in the Picton Property Income (LON:PCTN) bid have seen share prices fall, PCTN the most?
Charles.
I think it’s partly rising gilt yields that’s partly responsible for the falls across the REIT sector today. Higher interest rates ahead too which narrows the yield attractions of REITS.
And the joint all shares bid by Londonmetric Property (LON:LMP) and Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SREI) for Picton Property Income (LON:PCTN)hasn’t gone down well. It’s particularly disadvantageous for Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SREI) as it’s now far less likely that LMP will bid for them, and after the lock up period there’s the likelihood of LMP selling their stake in SREI. I can’t fathom why Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SREI) got involved in this. Picton Property Income (LON:PCTN) shareholders perhaps come out best with an increase in dividend yield.
Following up on my previous post number33; please sell both stakes in Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SERE) at 59p and HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) at 360p. Hefty and unnecessary loss on that one!
VITP sale confirmation
SCHRODER EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC, (SERE), 1,383 sold at 59.0p, Proceeds = £809.97, Loss = £67.57
SCHRODER EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC, (SERE), 2,781 sold at 59.0p, Proceeds = £1,634.79, Profit = £647.61
HGCAPITAL TRUST PLC, (HGT), 356 sold at 360.0p, Proceeds = £1,275.60, Loss = £630.07
Available cash = £6,993.
Note: profit/loss reported on sales include any dividends received.
Funny you should write that as I have just this morning sold mym own personal holding in Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SERE) - a 15% overall loss. With the proceeds I topped up Newriver Reit (LON:NRR) and opened a new position in FDM (Holdings) (LON:FDM) -"FDM Group (Holdings) plc is a United Kingdom-based global professional services provider focusing principally on information technology (IT)." (from Stocko). This is a new idea for me that derives principally from Alex Newman's recent Strategy Screen in the IC, which I posted about on yesterday's Stocko digest. It has a lot of cash, a high dividend and some very substantial recent director buys. It has also received some positive recent coverage from Paul Scott, whose excellent blog I follow, though cannot any further divulge, for obvious reasons.
Rather a severe day in the markets I notice, particularly on the poor old REITS , which seem to be suffering from those high bond rates, I imagine. Grainger (LON:GRI) at a massive discount and yet no signs of stabilising. Perhaps because you can get about as much income from a UK government long dated bond?
Some of the REITS are looking very cheap - I expect this is due to gilt yields spiking (10 year is over 5%) - It could be the time to pick up some long term bargains. My picks are Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) Grainger (LON:GRI) Unite (LON:UTG)
Agree a lot of REITS are looking cheap, and could well get cheaper still, so probably no rush to buy or top up any of them.There could be a great buy opportunity ahead. If Starmer and Reeves go, and Labour lurches further left, don’t rule out a major Truss type crisis ahead either.
I’m happy to ride it out, and hold Aew UK Reit (LON:AEWU) , Alternative Income REIT (LON:AIRE) Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI) Social Housing REIT (LON:SOHO) Newriver Reit (LON:NRR) Land Securities (LON:LAND) Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) Supermarket Income REIT (LON:SUPR) Londonmetric Property (LON:LMP) Value and Indexed Property Income Trust (LON:VIP) and Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SREI) . Also have British Land (LON:BLND) and Tritax Big Box REIT (LON:BBOX) on the watch list for a higher yield than now if the share price falls continue. The yields on my holdings at the buy prices are high and it’s comforting to get so much income from them.
There are so many REITS that I find it very difficult to choose between them. Personally I think that Streeting will launch a challenge and he is from the right of the Labour Party, so I don't think that would be so bad actually.
I agree about Wes Streeting…..but the big question is whether he has any chance of winning? His standing is likely to see other leadership candidates including Andy Burnham who are well left of Starmer and Streeting, and as with Milliband seems ignorant about markets. Like Truss he will learn the hard way but at the expense of higher interest rates for starters.
I dont think Burnham is a possibility because he isn't an MP UNLESS he does some kind of deal with Starmer for transition in the future once he becomes an MP and this therefore makes it harder for Streeting. Milliband would be a disaster! Streeting needs to act soon to avoid Burnham contesting too. Lots of politically manuvers going on!
Once he becomes an MP? I wouldn't bet on Burnham winning any by-election based on last weeks results. His opportunity which Labour squandered was the Gorton & Denton elections which would have been a walkover for Burnham. As someone who worked in Westminster for a long time, this reminds me of David Moyes at West Ham. Won them their first trophy in a generation and yet still got the sack. Look at West Ham now. Kier (who I personally don't rate as a first class operator), still took the party to a landslide victory and has only been in 18 months. Blair lost over a 1000 seats in local elections and still powered on to win the next election. The media and public are to blame for this as we want instant gratification and are not prepared to wait.
Thanks for some great replies on the VITP. I hadn’t thought of timarr’s point that it’s rare to see a genuine long run portfolio like it.
No problem btw with anyone posting about the haphazard way I’ve run it, because it’s been the case for ages. I’ve concentrated on our portfolios ahead of the VITP.
e.g HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) should have been sold long before the current 32% loss on my sell if in doubt or bad news rule. And the doubt continues to be the effects of AI on their portfolio. Also I sold Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SERE) after this news in March and on doubts about the sustainability of the dividend. So it too should have gone a while ago. I’ll do the sell posts for number33 after this post. It will raise cash for new buys in time.
“The Company also announces that at its Alkmaar industrial property in the Netherlands (c. 5% of portfolio income), Shuurman Beheer B.V., the sole tenant, has, as a result of financial difficulties, been forced to cease operations at the asset, following which it has elected not to fulfil its lease obligations. The Company has initiated legal proceedings, including enforcement of the €350,000 rental guarantee. Active marketing of the premises, which is located in a prominent logistics and distribution hub and features on-site renewable energy and an EPC A+ rating, has commenced with good initial interest from prospective occupiers. Further updates will be provided in due course.”
I’ll certainly react to any buy/sell suggestions posted here as Brucie suggested.
I might post more on this another time, and will also reply to some of the posts (thanks!) on the VITP.
For now….markets are often right but fwiw I still can’t fathom why they seem to be ignoring the effects of Trump’s disastrous war even in the unlikely event of it ending tomorrow. e.g higher inflation, higher wage demands and supply supply shortages for starters. So why are US markets at record highs??
And in the UK add the risk of current Labour Party chaos and possible very left wing policies and clowns like Milliband or Rayner being touted as Chancellor or even Prime Minister and surely there’s a high risk at some point this year, and possibly soon, of big market falls and a repeat of the Truss chaos or worse ahead, and eventually a much better buy opportunity than now?
Time to clear out anything we have doubts about and also to top slice a few or sell to have increased cash available for after all this?
Finally imo the quality of our politicians has never been lower. Rishi and Jeremy Hunt were two glaring exceptions but they had to battle on against their own MPs trying to get rid of them. Rishi Sunak’s weekly column in The Sunday Times, shows his high quality and knowledge.
Totally agree Ken, I’m at least 33% in cash in my Sipp and Isas at present and am waiting patiently for the next opportunity. Can’t predict or try and argue with the market but “surely” a correction has to be on the cards and in the current climate I’m not prepared to risk and give back those lovely profits made over the years. Also one has to have a balance that enables one to sleep at night so that 33% cash doesn’t include family money that I would never consider putting anywhere near the stockmarket. My current holdings are also weighted to high yielders with growth shares, my historic profitable hunting ground very much in the minority. Although I’m not well known here I’m also gonna mention the VITP portfolio. Probably I’m bias being one of the original crowd on the Mike Walters site but over the years everyone fully appreciated the effort of yourself and number33. Although you probably don’t devote the same amount of time to it now I suspect that a majority here will feel the same with some of the less experienced investors taking note of the performance of the various Investment Trusts each month which gives them food for thought and ideas for further research. The very best of luck though to all whichever way the markets decide to turn in the medium term.
Any chance of a portfolio breakdown George ? as you say your a bit in the background here out of choice which I totally get as you were super modest back in the Mike Walters days also.
I would say for anyone who doesn't know George he's one of the very best investors I have come across in two decades of investing, so hopefully with the proverbial smoke now blown we can squeeze out a couple more posts/updates a month lol.
Hi Andy
Below is my current portfolio as requested. I'll list the stocks in alphabetic order showing the capital gain/loss at present followed by the current dividend yield plus any comment I feel worthwhile. Remember my tactic has always been to buy when markets are down or when good companies are out of favour, run the winners and cut losers or when stories change. Many of the larger companies I've held for a while so the dividends received will have considerably boosted my pot. At the end of the post I'll mention one or two stocks that I reckon could be oversold and I'm tempted to buy.
Aberdeen Group, gain to date 55%, yield 6.5%
Aviva, gain 68%, yield 6.24%
Audioboom, gain 70% yield nil. This company has put itself up for sale and if a bid appears great, if not I'll cut and run
Blackrock World Mining, gain 89%, yield cos of the price rise now only 2.35%
Bloomsbury Publishing, gain 6%, yield 2.5%, bought back recently after a positive trading statement
BP, gain 44%, yield 4.6%, have traded this one a few times and top sliced recently
Brave Bison, gain 15% yield 0.50%, a fairly recent buy, market not really taken to the company yet but got high hopes as earnings forecasts keep being upgraded. Also Simon Thompson wrote a bullish IC article this week which can only add to the cause.
Foresight Group, level, yield 5.8%
GSK, gain 40%, yield 3.6% but watching closely as price has come off recently
Hollywood Bowl, down 9%, yield 5.25%, despite a decent trading statement the shares aren't acting well so unlikely to hang on for much longer
JP Morgan China, down 3%, yield 3.8%
L &G, gain only 4% but yield 8.8%, ex div for the final at present and a bumper payout every year but am puzzled at the very narrow trading range and why the share hasn't joined in the Aviva and Standard life party.
Lloyds, gain 70%, yield 3.7%
Mony, gain 14.5%, yield 7.25%, a fairly recent buy near the low and just received the final dividend
New River Reit, gain 12.7%, yield 8.5%
Pollen Street, gain 25%, yield 7%, have traded this one a couple of times, I think it's a good company
Primary Health Properties, level, yield 7.6%, another more recent buy
Prudential, gain 62%, yield 1.72%
Restore, gain 12%, yield 2.6%, have traded in the past, not held this time around too long, a decent trading statement this morning and encouraged recently by Richard Staveley writing an article "Shares that I love, Restore"
Rockwood Strategic, gain 13% yield nil
Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust, down 4%, yield 7.3%
Serica Energy, gain 58%, yield 6%, have top sliced recently
Social Housing Reit, level, yield 7.8%
Standard Life, gain 46%, yield 7.25%
Supermarket Income Reit, down 1.5%, yield 7.5%
Winvia Entertainment, up 5%, yield nil
I've always been an active investor but have joined the new kids on the block with a bit of passive investing. I hold HSBC FTSE World Index Fund and LG Global Equity Index Fund and thanks mainly to the US they have both done very well. The enjoyment isn't the same though but can't complain at the profit so far. As a hedge I also hold the Vanguard Global Bond Index Fund.
As previously mentioned my portfolios are currently near 35% in cash and I am watching 4 shares that I think could be oversold. They are ME International a stock I bought in mid 2024 at £1.72. All was going well with an offer for the company of £2.20. But they turned it down, the shares fell so I sold for a small loss at £1-65. Now the price is £1.37 and I think the chances of a turnaround are promising, yes the photo booth side of the business is looking tired but they are rapidly expanding the more profitable laundry business. We will see! The other 3 companies I've got my eye on are Relx, Craneware and GB Group.
I am waiting for the next buying opportunity though so I'm in no rush to part with any cash just yet and am quite happy to watch and wait.
I'm sorry if this post is a bit long winded but I thought it best to give more detail than just list the holdings. Any comment, one way or another, please post!
Thanks George pleased to see quite a few names I also hold in your list, I did top up on ME International (LON:MEGP) yesterday it does look cheap as chips and the washing machine play seems shrewd particularly as your never going to get a competitor operating next door.
I'm also mulling Foresight group (LON:FSG) I already hold Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) and ideally don't want two plays in the same sector but Foresight is different from most fund managers as they are heavily into infra-structure and things like VCT's.
The owner is advancing in years and holds a large stake so one would think he will want an out in the short term. Yield is very good, they do have a rep for being a bit double glazing with sales/deals but equally they aren't as reliant on pure fund flows in from retail/institutional money as the other fund managers in the UK.
Also hold Legal & General (LON:LGEN) and intending to follow Naked Traders advice on range plays as this one looks a great example so if it gets near £2.35 ish I will look to add with a view to getting out if it then falls below £2.10 ish.
Andy after the rise in Polar Capital I recently sold at a nice profit and switched into Foresight but it’s possible I may have dropped a clanger. Will give it time to see what happens but if Foresight doesn’t play the game I won’t be hanging on for long
I have 20% in short dated gilts( outside a tax wrapper) and money market funds. We also have 40% in cash that will never be invested. Having suffered a wipeout in the 90's (Property and business investment) and rebuilt we are both to cautious to risk more than 50% in the markets. Partly as we may move in a few years and will need access to cash to do so.
I would agree the political class in this country are on the whole pretty mediocre. I suppose why would a successful, business person want to become an MP so we just have many who studied PPE and think they know everything.
If nothing else the portfolio shows how a reasonably well thought out (not totally random) portfolio has performed over a long period of time. In that it adds confidence to the investment trust sector when other events might cast a gloomy view (and there have been quite a few not least expanding discounts) I find it very useful.
It is NOT a list of stocks/ trusts with a backward looking 10 / 15 year view that anyone can produce. It is a result of "lived" decisions by the the administrator of the trust. Although Ken "admits" to forgetting to trade or update it occasionally - that reflects real life for many investors who also have a full time job, family and kids (so Ken don't be too harsh on yourself) !
Just after thoughts if anyone's happy to chip in, I've run an update on my quality screen and its thrown up the following as possible income opportunities.
I appreciate there type of investments are probably slightly safer if we were heading into a falling rate environment not a rising rate scenario which is possibly more likely for the next 18 months all be it I'm thinking maybe 0.50-1% increase for the US,UK and Europe over that time period worst case.
As follows, Target Healthcare Reit (LON:THRL) , Biopharma Credit (LON:BPCR) , TwentyFour Income Fund (LON:TFIF) , Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI) Real Estate Credit Investments (LON:RECI) happy to hear any comments good or bad.
Regards
Andy
They look good to me, Phoenix, though I hold neither Target nor Custodian REIT. But I do hold Real Estate Credit Investments (LON:RECI) , Biopharma Credit (LON:BPCR) and TwentyFour Income Fund (LON:TFIF) quite extensively, on basis that they pay good dividends over time and never cost me any sleep! Of the other two, Target might interest me except that I already hold Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) .
Thanks Brucie my screen weeds out most stuff sub 200 mil market cap, loss makers and most listed investments with very high levels of debt. The names it through up aren't any I'm overly familiar with but ideally I'm after a bond type substitute for part of my portfolio.
I followed you into BPCR via my dollar account on IBrokers. The LSE listed firm is priced in $ and has primarily US loans. No currency charge. I am still not clear if the overall transaction costs are less!
Interesting article in MoneyWeek this weekend - 'Back the big winner from the gulf crisis'. The author suggests looking at Guinness Sustainable Energy UCITS ETF Acc (LON:CLMP) and Guinness Global Energy Fund (cant find the ticker here).
"The world has been reminded of the risks of supply distruption" - the article suggets we could see lots more energy projects as countries try to broaden their supply. Worth having a look at the Just ETF page for the sustainable fund https://www.justetf.com/uk/etf... as it highlights a relatively even weighting across companies, and only 33% exposure to the US.
Keen to hear any thoughts on them, ive taken a position in Guinness Sustainable Energy UCITS ETF Acc (LON:CLMP)
Guinness Global Energy is a Unit trust. Code: GB00B56FW078. This fund invests in Oil and Gas- CLMP in renewables. Looks quite an interesting want to be exposed to net zero transition. 37% is in Equipment and componests such as solar panels, turbines etc, 20% in Energy efficiency , smart building tech and 20% in EV infrastructure and components. Thanks for mentioning CLMP looks interesting as an EV owner I can see the growth almost weekly in new charging points.
Interesting, JSchoffer, and for those others who might be interested, here's the article: Back these energy funds – big winners from the Gulf crisis | MoneyWeek
In the meantime there are of course those homegrown infrastructure ITs languishing at extraordinary discounts. Among them, TRIG, which put out a reassuring update this morning, I would have thought!
Renewables Infrastructure Grp (The) Strategy/Company/ Operations Update - ADVFN
Market has given it two cheers - up 2%. Bit in terms of sheer value/income proposition I'm not sure what more you could ask for.
Renewables Infrastructure Group | The AIC
I take the view that almost everything UK based is severely discounted and after a while this becomes self-perpetuating. Even our MPs pensions are only fractionally invested in the UK! But that does mean that any reappraisal or rediscovery could lead to sharp rises. Even the sheer refusal to go down any further in a profound bear market can be the sign of a market turnaround, though the economic recovery is yet to be seen. In this respect, I I continue to monitor ever more closely the share chart on Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) , which is very, very close to a breakout through its historically declining 200ma. The decline here has been monumental over time, yet it has continued to buy back shares and recently declared its intention to buy River Global Holdings asset management arm in a deal that it claims will be earnings accretive. LIO is clearly among the least focused of the managers that I know of, which has so far been its downfall, while others that I hold have actually begun their recovery, led notably by Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) , which has been a stunning performer when share price is taken together with dividends received. Who knows, as a bottom fishing generalist, it many now be the turn of Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) to benefit from a rediscovery?
Mello's Investment Trusts & Funds webinar is back tomorrow (12th May) from 1pm and it is FREE to join. We have three very different investment companies presenting so hopefully something of interest for most!
More details and registration is available here: https://www.melloevents.com/mitf120526
The agenda is as follows:
1:00pm Company Presentation from IP (LON:IPO)
1:30pm Company Presentation from JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust (LON:JFJ)
2:00pm Company Presentation from Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI)
Look forward to seeing you all on zoom tomorrow.
If you cannot make the webinar due to timing, you can register for the event and the recording will be distributed within a couple of days.
I don't really understand the rational or reasoning behind posting a random portfolio here to be honest. We all have watchlists and our own portfolios. Sorry to be harsh but it doesn't really add any value, as you say yourself it is managed in a very haphazard way. What is beneficial is discussion of Investment Trust buys or sells and the reasoning behind these - bull and bear points - not just a random list of investment trusts, it would be better to get this data from the AIC.
No problem with you being harsh and your comment is fair, . One of the reasons for opting for weekly updates for now was to get more replies including critical and supportive. What we don’t know is how useful or otherwise people who read posts here but never post find the portfolio. They can search AIC as you suggest. The portfolio is not really a random list but an attempt to cover a wide area beyond the UK. I would manage it more efficiently if there was more interest in it than so far there seems to be.
If your opinion is widely held, then as number33 had already suggested to me we can wind up the portfolio.
Just to add to my previous reply. I’m open about my failings in running the Virtual Investment Trust portfolio, yet despite that it still manages easily to outperform the FTSE250 and AIM indexes, and even matches the now high performing FTSE100 index. So if nothing else it shows the plus case for having a good quality and balanced Investment Trust portfolio.
Spot on Ken I think that's the over reaching message if you want an easy life just put together a well diversified portfolio of 15-20 trusts (include a gold etf and oil etf in those numbers for extra diversification) and even if you don't pro-actively manage it you should do okay long term.
I haven't checked but I reckon even with a haphazard/lack of interest approach since the end of the Mike Walters days the numbers the trust portfolio has returned would still be in the top 25% of whatever sector the asset mix fell into against full time investment manager pro's.
The ideal situation once you have it set up is to probably rebalance end of May and start of Oct and ad hoc when pull backs of more than 10% happen.
Ken, I think it's a useful idea, but could it be developed further into a folio that reflects ideas from this bulletin board, which are then used or ignored at your discretion? For example, each month there could be a position up for grabs, which would then be subject to discussion along with a reminder of the objectives of the folio. John Baron of course does this with four distinct folios. Obviously we don't want to add to your and No33 workload, but I think to have a bb folio of It's on an IT thread is a great idea. I would even suggest developing a second, as growth and income folios might each have their followers? But thank you for your continued efforts and expertise this far.
I absolutely think the VITP serves a useful purpose - it's public information that can validated, not some random poster claiming they've made 25% a year for two decades (someone did that not long ago - they've apparently smashed Warren Buffett's returns ...)
Generally it's very hard to get real-life long-run examples of portfolios. Backtesting data is subject to all sorts of biases and indexes are hopeless for assessing returns. Finding total return data is an even bigger pain in the proverbial.
What the VITP shows is that a fairly haphazardly managed portfolio (sorry ken) can match the returns on the local index without a lot of effort - 139% return is pretty much what you'd have got on the FTSE100 on a total return basis and way better than the tiny amount you'd have got in high interest bank accounts (where most UK savers put their money).
If I were near the beginning of my investing career as opposed to near the end I would look at this and think: "Well, if you can do that with a bunch of investment trusts at near zero risk what can I do if I spend a bit more time on it?"
The answer, it turns out, is around 20%, but it's been a long hard slog ...
timarr
I read this component of the Stocko site all the time and enjoy learning from both you and your brother in arms Charles! As I get older I am becoming less adventurous and have bought into several ITs. I have also been a long term customer of TEP but never bought the shares. Please continue with all your commentary. I need to broaden my perspective internationally and ITs offer that opportunity. My son has already done that and he is very happy with Artemis at the moment.
Hi Dereksp.
Artemis have some outstanding Unit Trusts (many of which I hold), but only one Inv Trust (as far as I can tell) - Artemis UK Future Leaders (LON:AFL) which to be honest looks to be a bit of a dog.
The Artemis SMART-Garp approach looks to bring in some really good results, although this could simply be some excellent marketing from the group, but the performance of their fund managers is generally excellent. I hold the UK, European and Global Income unit trusts.
I'd be keen to hear of anyone else's experience in broader Global Growth trusts. Again I am invested more in Unit Trusts here - Ranmore & Argonaut, but always happy to look at any outstanding Inv Trusts that might be lurking out there.
Having read this article I am going to consider my India exposure. I had reduced it but still have a holding in Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust (LON:AIE) https://asia.nikkei.com/view-n...
AJ bell have an article on the best performing funs over 10 years. Link here
VITP update
In light of the current volatile stock market we have decided to publish the state of the VITP weekly from now on.
The Virtual Investment Trust Portfolio (VITP) is managed by Ken Mitchell and administrated by me (number33). It represents an ISA portfolio and does not pay capital gains or income tax. It is as close to a real portfolio as it can get with holdings being bought at offer prices and sold at bid prices and a fixed dealing fee is charged. It even pays the PTM levy where appropriate.
Note, the FTSE100TP and FTSE250TP reference indices used in the charts are the Total Return versions with dividends reinvested.
Prices are taken from ADVFN, yields and Discounts are now taken from the AIC website.
VITP - And of course I should have mentioned that stamp duty is charged on purchases.
Hi number33, Ken,
Thanks for this. It's interesting to note that the VITP hasn't yet regained it's pre-US/Israel vs Iran highs and even pulled back slightly from the recent recovery. All the more so, since my own mainly single company shares portfolios have (slightly disconcertingly) powered on to ever increasing highs... perhaps this reflects the trade off in volatile times, IT's being somewhat less volatile. The prices moves in some (mainly US stocks) are bizarre to me, given the conflict is not resolved and the after effects are likely to be felt for months to come when it is!
In a roundabout way, this brought me to another thought. Have you considered adding a global comparator to the current UK ones? The reason being many IT's are global funds?
Regards,
Jon
I will look into the possibility of adding a global index to the VITP but the problem is going to be finding one that I can download along with the prices and obtaining the required historical values to construct the chart.
Does anyone have a link to a summary of what the VITP is? I've tried searching for info a few times and not been able to find anything. I'm trying to understand the buy/sell rationale, position sizing, scope, balance between funds/sectors/regions, etc.
Ken Mitchell manages the VITP and it basically reflects his personal ideas on investing in investment trusts. He has made loads of posts explaining those ideas here on Charles Mitchell's monthly investment trust threads.
Adding a bit to the reply you’ve had from number33. Have you looked at the VIRTUAL INVESTMENT TRUST PORTFOLIO posted by number33? The title speaks for itself. I.e it’s a virtual Investment Trust portfolio with every holding so far being an Investment Trust. It’s well worth looking at it closely.
As number33 explained I choose the Trusts included in it, and make the sell or buy decisions. You can see too the date purchased and. so so much more including the total gain or loss for each holding since purchase.
There is no sophisticated rationale that you asked about. I manage it in a VERY haphazard way, often failing to get round to making sell or buy decisions even when I sell and post that I’ve bought or sold . Performance would probably be a lot better if the portfolio was better managed. I’ve covered and explained why it isn’t many times here.
Again if you look at the holdings you’ll see that the portfolio covers a very wide area. Also it’s a test of whether an established/often leave alone Investment Trust portfolio can look after itself even during the worst of bear market falls.
EDIT.
The decision to post it weekly is to see if it perks up interest here in the portfolio. If so I would try to manage it more efficiently including reacting to reader suggestions.
I’ve added a short edit to my reply to DaveR.
Thanks both for clarifying. I guess I was assuming too much but absolutely nothing wrong with your approach and performance. Hope it continues for a long time.
Investor Meet Company this coming week.
International Biotechnology Trust (LON:IBT) INTERNATIONAL BIOTECHNOLOGY TRUST PLC
Half Year Results
12th May 2026 at 9:00am BST
I know Charles that you have a sizeable holding in Molten Ventures (LON:GROW) and was trying to see if it still provided a decent chance of a return despite going up so much in the last couple of months.
Similar to Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIT) there seems to be a lot of excitement around space - and with GROW having nearly 10% in ICEYE (39% of £350m assets) vs 10% of £1,500m in GROW.
I wouldn't be prepared to pay for SSIT on a 60% premium but do understand that this is based on an out of date NAV which could be way off if there are some early flotations. However, the 20% discount on GROW looks quite a good starting point - although fully accept that the 120% gain by GROW in the last year may mean the big gains have been had, but then again there could be much more - I sold out way too early on SSIT and missed probably another doubling in the SP.
I might dip my toe in here and see what happens.
Kevin- GROW have 7% in space companies and they see this growing. There was a mention of this in today's AIC "Compass" mag. https://theaic.turtl.co/story/...
It is one on my larger holdings and I have no plans to see any at the moment despite the rise.
I bought a few more GROW to-day Kevin . The GROW portfolio is looking pretty good and I guess the Space exposure will attract more investors. Be interesting to see what the SSIT C shares open at !
Yes - I dipped a toe. Small amounts across SIPPs & ISA's (mine & wife).
I bought some Tritax Big Box REIT (LON:BBOX) as well. The board are either highly optmistic or it looks cheap!
Phoenix Spree Deutschland (LON:PSDL) Compulsory redemption of 7.45% of a holding. The redemption price is £2.56 - current market price is £1.71. Record date June 30th so last date to buy is 26th June. I hold this share and given the company says that it hopes to sell €55m in 2026 there will most likely be more redemptions. The issue is the Berlin property market- rental and property laws are complex, interest rates are making it harder for individuals to get mortgages. It could take 3 years (or more) to liquidate the portfolio- hence the discount. The next redemption could be in the 10--15% range-assuming the sales are achieved. The current LTV is 41%.
I will most likely re-invest the proceeds of the compulsory redemption into more PSDL shares.
I agree and hold. Based on my math, this will be a low teens IRR under conservative assumptions even assuming the wind down will take 5 years. Not going to shoot the lights out but pretty attractive income stock as they redeem shares going forward. Also, the redemption gains will be treated as capital gains in the U.K. and not income, so does not necessarily have to be held in ISA or SIPP.
I see that Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIT) has announced the outcome of its C-share equity raise;
Pursuant to the Issue, a total of 136,508,663 new C Shares will be issued at a price of 100 pence per C Share, raising gross proceeds of approximately £137 million. The Issue comprises:
· gross proceeds of £76.4 million by way of the Placing;
· gross proceeds of £15.1 million by way of a direct subscription by an institutional investor; and
· gross proceeds of £45.0 million by way of the Retail Offer.
They will start to trade on Tuesday 12th May.
I hold.
Very interesting solution for any investors in Herald Investment Trust (LON:HRI) and the long established manager Katie Potts.
https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
This deal seems to buy out Saba from Herald Investment Trust (LON:HRI) and reduce there ‘interference’ in other Aberdeen Investment trusts for 3 years anyway. Would imagine supporters of Katie Potts are very pleased that she is still in charge of the successful investment strategy she has followed over many years even if it is under the Aberdeen (LON:ABDN) umbrella.
It was interesting deal, and Katie has a hard core followers, I sure ABDN will want her to succeed and give her a free hand
Big move this. Morning at Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR), which fortunately happens to be my largest single position. The contrast with Reach (LON:RCH) could not be starker! But to state the bleeding obvious, it's clear that there are simply better and worse businesses, which on a clever trading approach it's quite difficult to outsmart. What marks out POLR is of course it's stable of specialist ITs, with the success of those teams feeding back to the profits of the group. So you can of course invest in Polar Capital Technology Trust (LON:PCT) , for example, and accept its volatility, or simply buy the mothership. I'm also aware of my other fund managers including M&G (LON:MNG) , City of London Investment (LON:CLIG) and Ashmore (LON:ASHM) dking well. Impax Asset Management (LON:IPX) has yet to feel the love, but surely can't be far behind if this is truly a function of flows rerouting away from the US..? I'm also continuing to watch Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) where I sense a huge potential recovery opportunity, if it breaks up above it's 200ma.
Bu let's face it, there seems to be no logic to cling onto in present markets, which can turn on the single line of a presidential social media post.
Hi Brucie as a fellow Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) holder do you know the reason for the decent rise today ? broker upgrade or such like maybe ?
Chatter suggests Deutsche Bank upgrades Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) to 10.50 level, though I haven't seen the note and wouldn't know what to do with it if I did! I think Cavendish published a target of about 127p for RCH yesterday and noone takes a blind bit of notice. One has the wind in its sails, the other not so much.
Very brief on this as it’s off topic. Luckily I cut the Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) loss at £11.30 just ahead of the 11% fall today. I think even more strongly now that the real reason for the decision to opt for buybacks and cut the dividend was not because Management thought it a likely more rewarding idea, but because they knew and tried to hide that the dividend was unsustainable. Profits warning ahead?
The other dud idea I posted Riverstone Energy (LON:RSE) I’m still holding for a better sell opportunity. The sell price has gone up and the huge discount might provide support for the share price or even lead to a further share price increase and even a profitable outcome.
Fortunately I sold all my Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) at time of last RNS, albeit at a loss already. 1000 is the 5 year low so might expect some support here. Reach (LON:RCH) was my biggest loser today, exceeding Harbour Energy (LON:HBR). I'm a bit mystified by the extraordinary value seemingly available at RCH, with 14% dividend several times covered and a pension fund almost paid out. I get the issue of declining revenues and legacy media of course, but how long on an earnings basis before you now get all your money back..?!!!
To answer my own question, Stocko has it on PE of 2.5. Surely there's a PE investor running an abacus over it..?
I cut my Reach (LON:RCH) yesterday after several different losses over different spells of trying to bottom fish…I did receive a nice divi though albeit lost far more. I’m amazed there’s been a frenzy of interest in the Daily Telegraph sale and surely Reach (LON:RCH) have some important IP and valuable data and all for next to nothing. They seem to have found a base at 50p…. Trigger finger is itching again!
Ken, I sold TEP at £12.837 after the first RNS. Sort of followed your theory- I saw the change as a warning. Small loss but that is they way it goes. RSE I am holding, down a couple of % after the buy in, but huge discount so relaxed about that.
Well off this thread but bought back into Young & Cos Brewery (LON:YNGA) . Sold after Trump first attacked Iran, bought back in 7% lower. Stayed in a Pub in Appledore on my recent Devon/Cornwall trip. Rooms were great, staff good and it was busy.
Delighted to see you enjoyed Appledore and it is busy. A very good friends daughter and son in law have settled there and are very involved in the hospitality sector. They have an excellent fish and chip shop and pub next door, amongst other things!
We popped into the Champ pub- very lively -and friendly . We stayed in the Seagate- in the annexe- lovely large room with great views.
Just reinforces my own theory that I cannot consistently find winners in single companies however good the numbers look - I will decide what to do with Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) tomorrow.
Hi Kevin
You/we were unlucky with Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) so we can’t blame ourselves for being caught out by what imo (and obviously the market opinion too) was shock bad news. Charles did well selling at nearly £13 and with hindsight I should have sold too on my “always sell on a profits warning” rule instead of waiting to see if there might be a bounce. OK it wasn’t actually a profits warning, but I interpreted it as such straight away.
I’m still surprised as a shrewd poster/investor you don’t do better with your single company choices……there were so many bargains to choose from when the UK market was chronically undervalued, and shares like Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) available under £1, and high quality shares with double digit dividends, including some promising dividend increases. Perhaps those were seen as too boring??
The key focus for my buy and sell decisions for shares and Trusts is the Company Results and trading updates. I always try and run my winners all the while updates are positive, and focus on those regularly issuing better than expected updates. e.g Next (LON:NXT) when it was around £45. I also use charts a bit, but mainly for when to buy, where I look for the bottom of the current trading range, and for signs of double top or bottom.
My sell on first hint of bad news rule works very well, but the record is less impressive where I anticipate good news ahead from the latest Trust or share update. Unfortunately that applied in spades with Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) . When a share or Trust proudly promotes a multi year record of dividend increases, the last thing to expect is a change to that policy…..unless they had no option but to cut!
Thanks Ken - I sold my Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) this morning along with Topps Tiles (LON:TPT) - both around a 20% loss.
In all honesty I need to keep sticking to the 20% SL rule I have as this has been a good way to protect my capital - whenever I have flexed on this it has been a costly mistake. I don't stick to it automatically, but I ensure I do a full review when I hit the 20%.
I still have a few single companies and am always on the lookout for other opportunities - I hope I haven't come across as someone who always loses - that isn't the case, but the binary outcome of a single company share is often not a place I wish to be. I still have a good hit rate and its nice to see that without these losers on board my overall PF is looking much greener. Whilst this year has been up & down it's gratifying to see it positive currently.
I think part of the issue is finding in today's choppy markets real bargains - there isn't a huge amount such as those you mention above from a few years back - M&S, RR. etc.
I can see a few for the future, but currently the chart is keeping me out eg. Jet2 (LON:JET2) , Dunelm (LON:DNLM) etc.
In the meantime I'll sit and smile at some of the decent returns on collectives (and the odd share) that appear to have come alive - which incidentally reinforces my thinking around trying to pick your own shares eg. M&C Saatchi (LON:SAA) Baker Steel Resources Trust (LON:BSRT) Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LON:GPM)
Things are still very choppy so now is probably a time to sit and wait and be ready to deploy capital when we get a decent signal; end of hostilities, confirmation of growing economy or the opposite; AI top/blow-off, inflation worries etc etc I sure as heck can't quite work out where this market is sitting.
Kevin- I am with you- sitting quiet at the moment as Trump is so unpredictable. I assume soon the TACO effect will kick in and he will become irrelevant. Nov primaries probably. I am still moving slowly into an income generating ISA as I am slowly handing my small business over to a younger person to take it on.
For all the Stocko members joining or planning to join us at MELLO2026
Here is the current list of investment trusts & funds joining us:
B.P. Marsh & Partners (LON:BPM) Brunner Investment Trust (LON:BUT) CT UK Capital and Income Investment Trust (LON:CTUK) CT Global Managed Portfolio Trust (LON:CMPG) EJF Investments (LON:EJFI) Harbourvest Global Private Equity (LON:HVPE) Merchants Trust (LON:MRCH) Nippon Active Value Fund (LON:NAVF) Odyssean Investment Trust (LON:OIT) Onward Opportunities (LON:ONWD) Oxford Technology Rockwood Strategic (LON:RKW)
Plenty more to follow. Use code M26BHSpecial for 30% off your ticket (code expires tomorrow)
For anyone wondering why Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) is down today, they have been downgraded by Deutsche Bank from Buy to Hold with a £13 price target from £20 (I hold)
Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) is it just me, or is there something deeply ironic about the 20% decline in TEP's SP since their announcement that they are moving to buybacks (and reducing divis) has now made those buybacks much cheaper (and likely to get even cheaper...).
HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) reports full year numbers on Thursday so worth revisiting what got said in the trading update on 6th February (this was just after the Anthropic release of a new autonomous legal productivity tool)....
https://tinyurl.com/3rfufs9p
The important piece was "estimated NAV total return per share was 4.0%2 over the year, and as a result, at 31 December 2025, the estimated NAV per share stood at £5.62 with net assets of £2.6 billion (unaudited)". So a recently calculated NAV (albeit based on lots of assumptions and probably similar non quoted companies rather than live market quotes). Will be interesting to see if the NAV is adjusted for the full year results. The trading update plus lots of director buying and the stake taken by Valhalla Ventures helped the SP back in February but it has declined again since then.
I still hold on the basis of the fact they have never sold an investment at less than the most recently reported NAV. But I hold at a loss and so I have not added to my holding (yet). The following podcast interview with Luke Finch is interesting and the main messages are that AI will help HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) and news in the pipeline should be positive. Also available on the Apple Podcast app. I may add after Thursday but want to read the RNS in full first.
https://tinyurl.com/mw6rfufr
At the opposite end of the risk scale, Tritax Big Box REIT (LON:BBOX) has it's AGM on Thursday. No specific NAV announcement expected but there may be some sort of trading update ? Full year results were announced on 27th February....
https://tinyurl.com/3tpfdxrc
And similar to Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP), a neat table of all the relevant financials was included, this makes it really easy to understand performance (my markings in yellow)....
Importantly, weighted average cost of debt as at end of December 2025 was 3.6% (versus 3.1% as at end of December 2024). 73% of the drawn debt is either fixed or hedged.
AIC site says the shares trade at an -18% discount to NAV with a yield of 5.3%. Not the best stats in the sector but Tritax Big Box REIT (LON:BBOX) is well managed IMO and I may well add tomorrow.
Let's see what Thursday brings.
SSB
Investor Meet Company next week.
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Dividend Income (LON:JEMI)
JPMORGAN EMERGING MARKETS DIVIDEND INCOME PLC
A Closer Look at Emerging Markets
5th May 2026 at 10:00am BST
Investor meet Company next week.
Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIT) SERAPHIM SPACE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Investor Presentation
5th May 2026 at 10:00am BST
For those who attended the investor presentation - was there any key points you came away with
They were very bullish. Expect C shares to be converted in bathes from fairly early on. Implied the Ordinary NAV will increase quite a lot over the next year or 2. No plans to sell IcEYE. I am buying the C shares and will just hold this time rather than buying and selling as I have been doing with the ords. They reckon that Space will be more transformative than AI.
Here is a link to the Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIT) meeting PDF https://www.investormeetcompan...
Morning all and thank you to the usual suspects including the two Mitchells (presumably unrelated except for their shared acumen on all things investment trusts related!) for keeping this board up to date as a veritable resource and daily go-to for comment. Now we're in May I thought I'd submit my current folio, which contains - or has contained - so many of the shares touched on here. It is an income folio, hopefully, though not always successfully, skewed towards value, wherein lies my basic strategy and whatever capital upside it might have. I am also fast approaching the moment in July when wifey and I will be largely living off its dividends, which will of course have a significant effect on the YTD, currently running at +4.4%.
Looking back on the month I see that I sold my Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) after their rather mixed messaging about the dividend; also SDCL Efficiency Income Trust (LON:SEIT) and Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust (LON:ORIT) . In place of which I have started a full position (2.77%) in ME International (LON:MEGP) , as a growth with income idea that I have known about for years, but which is now available at a reason price, with an interesting story of a tie up with Asda for a great number of new laundromats! Also fortified positions in existing holdings, Foresight group (LON:FSG) (2.8% - largish for me!), Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) (2.5%) , Supermarket Income REIT (LON:SUPR) and Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SERE) at equal standard position sizes.
The folio at 8.2% overall dividend yield should be enough to support the two of us along with my rather meagre work pension ( a teacher, but with lots of bits in between!) and hopefully, leaving a little bit to left to reinvest. To the extent that it does, is the subject of our forthcoming next journey. Neither of us is yet old enough to qualify for our state pension.
AAIF, ABDN, ASHM, BBOX, BLND, BPCR, BVXP, CLIG, CSN, CYN, DUKE, GCP, FGEN, FSFL, FSG, HBR, HFEL, IPX, ITV, LGEN, MEGP, MNG, NESF, NRR, OSB, PHP, POLR, RCH, RECI, SDLF, SERE, SEQI , SHHP, SOHO, SNWS, SREI, SUPR, TFIF, TMIP, TRIG, UKW.
My position in IPX, on which I recently and perhaps recklessly doubled down is likely to be dividend shortly with a renewed attempt to capture the earlier recovery at Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) . The two shares have different risks and opportunities, though both have been very badly battered recent years. While I'm still convinced that IPX still holds a niche position in a sector that will be rediscovered off the back of a global convergence on electrification vias renewables, I think Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) will be a beneficiary in due course of funds redirecting away from the increasingly toxic US. Obviously, I could be wrong, which is where I've been for the last eighteen months at least, in that regard! But the chart looks ripe for a massive, secular bottom.
In which regard, I'm also optimistic on Renewables. I love Renewables Infrastructure (LON:TRIG) Greencoat UK Wind (LON:UKW) and Foresight group (LON:FSG) in particular, though some may accuse me with some justice of overlooking my own confirmation bias. Nevertheless, and risks not withstanding, there are times when the markets seems simply unable to look beyond the wall of negativity that has brought previously great stories well and truly down to earth. There is the spectre not just of a Reform government (disaster!) but of this government's seemingly inconsistent messaging around support pricing - call it what you will. I do however understand the need to get off the so called 'marginal pricing' policy at which energy is priced to the consumer at the most expensive rate of base load gas, as opposed to the actual cost of power being generated. That said, it's a complex issue, and one that I don't pretend to fully comprehend. But i do think that electrification is no longer a fad, but a megatrend that has only just begun, as this rather fascinating feature in this week's IC seeks to explain: Investors Chronicle It's a remarkable article that should be read by all investors with an eye to emerging trends, and includes this one telling example (by which i mean, of the opportunity as well as the headwinds!) among so many others:
"If anyone can spot a smart return on investment, it’s a 143-year-old, family-run engineering firm. Goodwin’s (GDWN) installation of 6.7 megawatts (MW) of solar panels has led to a 30 per cent drop in electricity purchased from the grid. The Stoke-based group has also secured planning permission for a further 4.3MW solar installation but has been told by National Grid that planned upgrades to a nearby substation mean the project cannot complete until at least 2037."
Happy belated May Day!
B5.
Thanks for sharing interested in your reason for selling up on SEIT, I am concerned that subsidies falling in the renewables put them at risk. Like you I do think Goodwins is oversold on a poorly worded RNS and is a good time to buy. I also think Liontrust will have eventually rise from the ashes.
I’ll try and get round to a proper REIT update fairly soon.
For now, a key point is 10 year gilt yields over 5% making REITS less attractive as their yields are mostly around 7%.
Also rising interest rates would be another headwind for the sector. So most of the REITS I hold look holds rather than buys, unless any of them get bid for. I’ve sold Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SERE) recently. Why?….another time.
Newriver Reit (LON:NRR) up 11% year to date but still with a 9% dividend looks well worth checking out. Recent Results good.
Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SREI) DOWN 11% looks oversold.
Custodian Property Income Reit (LON:CREI) on an 18% discount and up 5%year to date looks tempting too.
Land Securities (LON:LAND) down 5%year to date is one that is worth buying now if the share again falls back for a while to up the yield a bit. I’m down 2%.. Tempted to add more to my half stake.
Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) is down 5% this year and again worth keeping an eye on.
Social Housing REIT (LON:SOHO) up 6% this year looks one to monitor too.
I also hold Aew UK Reit (LON:AEWU) , my best performer but fully valued, even though down 5% ytd and Alternative Income REIT (LON:AIRE) down 4% ytd . I wouldn’t be a buyer now, Finally Supermarket Income REIT (LON:SUPR) was a great buy when highlighted on the Investment Trust threads at the low, but less tempting now.
VITP update
Discounts are temporarily unavailable.
Yes the FTSE is unchanged over the month and the VITP has had one of its biggest rises ever.
Thanks for posting the latest VITP update number33.
Wow! That stunning 1 month performance gain of 6.5% while both the FTSE100 and FTSE250 were flat was a surprise. The Nasdaq index was up 14% so that explains some of that gain with the VITP Tech focus Trusts doing well. And again it’s the big gains for commodity Trusts, especially so CQS Natural Resources Growth and Income (LON:CYN) that gave the big boost.
What was also a surprise was that nearly all the VITP holdings were up a bit or at worst flat. REITS were flat and HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) the only (tiny) loser. Perhaps all this also shows the plus case for our holding a well balanced portfolio whether it be for shares or Trusts and ETFs? Investors can always play around the edges too. I.e have a core portfolio but enjoy researching and finding new investments, either for trading or potentially new long term holdings too.
Finally so far in its history the VITP has shown that a quality Investment Trust can ride out the inevitable big market ups and downs, with each significant dip proving to be a buy opportunity. That also shows imo that buying quality on those big dips is a very good investment tactic.
Impressive. What is the YTD, may I ask? Apologies if I've looked right through it.
As you can see from the green line in the One Year Growth chart the value of the VITP is about the same as it was at the beginning of the year. The Value Change chart below now shows the individual value changes since the beginning of the year. The FTSE100 index has risen 4.4%.
Thank you. Amazing charting! So I also notice that my own folio is in line with the FTSE 100 in terms of YTD, but given dividends reinvested. The things that seem to differentiate the VITP would include your geographical themes, like China, Vietnam, some Japan and EMs. I notice Stuart Kirk in the FT has recently included Blackrock Latin American Investment Trust (LON:BRLA) in his new folio of otherwise very largely ETFs. That's one I might consider.
Brucie5
Based your posts on the VITP I wonder if you realise that it’s the new name for what used to be the KITE (Ken’s Investment Trust) on Mike Walters bulletin board.
I usually select the Trusts that are in it, and it’s number33 who presents it superbly as you’ve now seen. Perhaps you’ve never looked at the KITE (now VITP) portfolio and the replies on it, until very recently???
Interesting post of yours on your current holdings btw. I hold a lot of yours.
Yes, I think I made that connection without particularly thinking why the KITE had turned into the VITP... I do look at it and your commentary is very helpful. My current thoughts have been how to include thematically -and geographically- based outliers, to boost performance on what in my case is a mainly for income based folio. To some extent of course, I have already done this, as have you, with FE and commodity based stocks. But you have also gone down more country specific routes like Vietnam and perhaps, China. A good call when it work out, certainly. But I note that the VITP has not equalled the FTSE on YTD, so something perhaps to tweak there? In other words, a good month, but not such a good YTD?
Not criticism, just observations. We're all trying to play the same game of income plus some degree of capital appreciation, with the larger existential question of why not put it all into a passive fund, if we can't keep up with the index!
You and No33 do a great job, so please continue!
Hi Brucie.
Surely the VITP has usually kept up with the UK indexes and apart from the big recovery in the FTSE100 has outperformed the FTSE250 and AIM indexes? Also though I’m very happy with number33 opting to compare with the UK indexes arguably that is not always appropriate for a portfolio investing worldwide. .
Short term under or over performance compared with the FTSE100 is surely inevitable? Also inevitable with the Middle East war currently is that Countries and Regions most negatively affected will underperform, while sectors like Commodities will outperform. Check out on the VITP the great performance from CQS Natural Resources Growth and Income (LON:CYN) and BlackRock World Mining Trust (LON:BRWM) both short and long term. Quintupling Trusts like those also show the longer term Investment Trust gains that can be achieved by investing in them.
What really matters is longer term performance and whether (as we are both trying to do with our portfolios) the VITP can ride out the big market falls.
You’re right about the need to tweak more including now, A reason I don’t is the lack of interest in the portfolio with usually zero replies to the changes I suggest and then make.
Had I put more effort in to the buying and selling, KITE (now VITP) performance could have been way better. e.g the times I make changes to our portfolios and post on them but don’t get round to doing it for the VITP. Ditto when posters here post on good Trust buy opportunities and I end up buying them but not for the VITP.
I've been very busy over the last month and not had time to look in here, but, as a slightly pained lover of renewables, I will try to find time to comment more soon. I have lived through the announcements of most and will admit to an error with NextEnergy Solar Fund (LON:NESF) , whose strategy doesn't excite me (although Next Energy Capital seems to be doing OK). They have all suffered from even worse sentiment about the government changes to various regulations in pursuit of lower electricity costs, but I believe the worst of that is over. For instance, the supposed windfall tax element has been announced by various as not affecting them, as their power price forecasts had already been adjusted down. It depends where you started, of course, so I'm only really underwater on the two solar funds. And most of the divs are being held at least. My main concern is that this **** war is making the BoE think they should increase interest rates, rather than continue the decline. I think this is misguided. This is a supply shock, not a demand pull. Why does making borrowers' lives doubly more expensive help, if the country needs tax income to pay its huge debts? Answers to that would be interesting, as it does affect funds like these.
One of my best in this sector in the last year has be VH Global Energy Infrastructure (LON:ENRG) , which is now in wind-down. If the others do gradually sell to private/international actors, they may well also revive closer to their latest NAVs.
So, in these volatile times, I have bought back into Biopharma Credit (LON:BPCP) . It has been a consistent performer, as a provider of credit for last-leg costs of getting new drugs and devices market-ready, and only to publicly-listed companies. This does seem to me well insulated from Iranian ripples. And of course, Social Housing REIT (LON:SOHO) came out with solid results, also a good diversifier from current macro news.
April was a better month for markets and the trust sector was lead by tech stocks. I see Manchester And London Investment Trust (LON:MNL) did well. I never managed to buy any shares as unable to get a quote and if I did the spread was huge- limit orders failed. I will avoid it as I have memories of getting locked in holdings with poor quotes/huge spreads. A rule of mine. Not sure why they do not do a share split to maybe increase liquidity. Molten Ventures (LON:GROW) is one of my larger holdings- glad it has gone up as I feel it is, and like many of the PE type trusts undervalued. Oakley Capital Investments (LON:OCI) has not done much, another large holding of mine , recently even thought they frequently say that AI qill be of use to many portfolio companies.-I see HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) has said much the same in a Citywire article yesterday- I hold that as well.
I have applied for the SSIT C shares. I am nervous of Trusts new issues falling to a discount, but givenm the large premium the ordinary shares are on and given I have a feeling they will have some investments lined up which are just past the seed capital stage worth an investment. That is based on hunch rather than fact I should state.
Emerging markets have had a hard time recently, though good to see Fidelity Emerging Markets (LON:FEML) up in April. I remain committed to the sector. Despite what the BoE spokesperson said I am not sure UK and European markets are massively over-valued at the moment. My only fear would be a Reform landslide in next weeks elections, but we will know in 7 days. November mid-terms loom for Trump and given his 60 day free pass to attack Iran is over hopefully Congress will start flexing what muscles it has to sort this mess he created out.
Hi Charles. It seems April was a bit of a mixed month (for me at least) - a lot of the commodity holdings staged a bit of a comeback; Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LON:GPM) Baker Steel Resources Trust (LON:BSRT) CQS Natural Resources Growth and Income (LON:CYN) whereas a few others dropped a little; Invesco Physical Markets (LON:SLVP) L&G Gold Mining UCITS ETF USD Acc (LON:AUCP) and of course one of my fav fund managers Barry Norris didn't have a good month - especially his Absolute Return Fund.
It is also good to see my Vietnam holding Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF 1C (LON:XFVT) do quite well, although it is quite volatile - my daughter regularly asks me why did I encourage her to invest in this!!!
It feels like we are in bit of a holding pattern regards the more mainstream funds/trusts as we await the outcome of the Iran War/blockade whilst listening to the continuous media cries of we are all doomed........unemployment, inflation, fuel shortages, Brexit blah blah blah. Interesting that Neil Woodford continues to call the other side of the argument and sees a lot of positives.
I don't think anyone can predict with any certainty how long the war/blockade goes on or what the real impact is going to be - whether a country is impacted or not, secondary effects from the wider global economy could easily infect others.
From my perspective I am continuing to deploy funds into areas I see as having a little more strength or have not yet bounced back - this includes further commodities although I feel like I have enough deployed there currently - and interestingly I listened to a Podcast yesterday which highlighted that there could be a slow down on the Energy Transition related resources should countries delay their transition and focus more on extracting their own G&O on the back of the war.
Anyway.........who knows - it's a long-term game so I try not to panic when things don't work out.
Going back to yesterdays excellent comments from Timarr & Ken regards Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) - BTW its interesting how as a IT/ETF/Fund thread we are having some good debates on a few individual stocks as well, but I think the value there is that there are some great investors/commentators on here - I did a bit of more work on the volumes and ownership to try and understand who may have been selling on Wednesday.
It appears there are 80m shares in issue with normal daily volume of around 235k. The major holders have 42% of the shares and include all of the usual big names; Aberdeen, Schroder, JPM, Blackrock, Jupiter etc. The only other major holder is the founder & Non-exec Chair Charles Wigoder with 7%.
Whilst the volume on Wednesday was nearly 10x the NDV (approx 2m sold/bought) I havent yet seen any major holder changing their % holdings although I appreciate it is still a bit early to see any forms being logged.
My own feeling is that the 2m sales/buys was probably a reaction from the PI community at the prospect of a major change in the dividend policy - although its not a definite as from my reading of it, they will only buy-back if it is at the right price and provides a decent shareholder return. Looking at the individual trades the vast majority seem to be of small values (I am uncertain if major holders sell in very small batches or would appear as much larger slugs).
I could be wrong, but I think this reinforces my view that I will hold on for the moment and may even top-up.
Anyway - a great board, brilliant contributions and hopefully see/meet some of you at Junes Mello event in London.
An interesting note but can I respectfully disagree with your fear of a Reform landslide What I think we investors have to be concerned about is a Green landslide and a Labour rout. If Starmer goes in comes the soft left, Miliband, Rayner & Co. so it will be goodbye to BP and more.
urnh
PFowler, thanks for this reply. In similarly respectful style I would say that I see dangers both Left and Right, wherever populism offers facile solution to complex problems. Unfortunately, given what's happened in the US and Farage's explicit and outspoken allegiance to Trump the values of MAGA, I think we can fairly see the direction of travel of any future Reform party: whether you think this is a good thing or a bad thing would then be the point of disagreement between us.
Thereafter, the UK's attitude towards its energy future is another controversial, but fair key issue: I come down fairly strongly on the importance of electrification via renewables and would refer anyone doubting this to this week's IC, which I referenced in one of my posts. Not even so much because of climate (though again, for me, this is a genuine moral and existential concern!) but because the migration away from fossil fuels towards electrification is already underway and we can choose either to with/ahead of the curve, or behind it. The US under Trump has made the most disastrous decision, not just in my opinion, but in the opinion of most people with in depth knowledge of the way energy production is moving. As in so much, the attitude of China is probably the most significant pointer, since they have the luxury of thinking far more strategically. Again, I would recommend to read either the IC or FT coverage of this issue. Though neither (especially the IC) seems overly supportive of this government's economic policy. And I can certainly sympathise with a lot of the criticism.
As for the Greens, I think they have a similarly unnuanced approach to the necessary complexity of issues, from immigration to green energy - though I'd rather have them in alliance with Libdems + Labour than Reform together with the Tories. But I well understand that might not be your cup of tea! Happy to confess that I have become a left centrist in my old age, where I started on the other side of the spectrum. From austerity to Brexit it seems to me that the right have done simply too much much damage to be given another such option on its future direction.
But once again, I say this in spirit of respect and good disagreement. This board is obviously mainly about investment, but inevitably, political viewpoints as well as other world issues, impinge on economics. As we're currently finding out from the disaster that is MAGA, with all its consequences for the world.
I was also surprised that Manchester And London Investment Trust (LON:MNL) have a 42% stake in Nvidia and 10% stakes in both TSMC and Broadcom Inc. Not a very balanced portfolio for a trust.