Is the Scene Set for Summer Stage 2's?
I love Stan Weinstein's stage analysis, elegantly simple, you could teach a child in no time what to look for and what to avoid.
2022/23 there were a few decent stage 2 moves on things like Yu (LON:YU.) and MS International (LON:MSI) Now we're probably 6 months into a new bull market in small/mid caps, theres many more potential candidates. This is much easier with a uptrending market, everyone's a stock picking genius at this point in the cycle and mistakes aren't punished nearly so severely, with breakouts tending to have more ooomph as institutions are done selling and/or buyers.
Always have to caveat no one knows the future, June in particular has historically been a hopeless month for AIM shares. FTSE250 not much better. So its no sure thing and theres always risks to be managed.
But as Mark Twain said-
“October—this is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.”
Personally, what I look for is
- A decent stage 1 base built, longer the better.
- Moving averages at least flat, preferably starting to rise
- EPS upgrades ideally, tho many will move well before earnings come through
- Volume increase, tho not a deal breaker for me.
- Price above moving averages.
Gamma Communications (LON:GAMA) This is what I want
Shoe Zone (LON:SHOE) This is what I want to avoid. May be a great company but its not what im looking for. Moving averages pointing down, broken support. Time to buy this was Oct '21 when it started stage 2 + gap up.
Anyway heres a few recent possible stage 2, either broken out or close. I sometimes buy a starter or half position before the breakout if theres good news or a volume spike, then add later on a breakout or earnings upgrade.
LSL Property Services (LON:LSL)
Cavendish Financial (LON:CAV) (tho it is a different company now so the chart isnt really relevant)
GB (LON:GBG)
Anpario (LON:ANP)
Eurocell (LON:ECEL)
IG Design (LON:IGR)
Luceco (LON:LUCE)
Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR)
Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO)
Premier Miton (LON:PMI)
Supreme (LON:SUP)
Grafton (LON:GFTU)
Alumasc (LON:ALU)
Persimmon (LON:PSN)
Venture Life (LON:VLG)
Moonpig (LON:MOON)
Bridgepoint (LON:BPT)
Kier (LON:KIE)
Windar Photonics (LON:WPHO) At the riskier end of the spectrum
Tpximpact Holdings (LON:TPX)
I'll maybe add any new ones as they develop (or breakdown) over the coming weeks. Please feel free to add any in the comments also
thanks to Rusty for the following suggestions-
Team17 (LON:TM17)
Volex (LON:VLX)
Avon Protection (LON:AVON)
Knights group (LON:KGH)
Cake Box Holdings (LON:CBOX)
Future (LON:FUTR)
Frontier Developments (LON:FDEV)
Synthomer (LON:SYNT)
Character (LON:CCT)
Quilter (LON:QLT)
Next 15 (LON:NFG)
Resolute Mining (LON:RSG)
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1,483 comments
OK I've buckled, as its nearly 1500 comments probably is time for a new thread. Started a new trade/chart thread.
Please post comments here - https://www.stockopedia.com/co...
Watches of Switzerland (LON:WOSG) decent update, guidance unchanged, the market likes it. Jeffries ups target to 575 which would also close the gap on daily chart
Future (LON:FUTR) also, shares up 13%.
Card Factory (LON:CARD) trading inline, albeit not yet through key period.
If they hit forecasts they'll have had a great H2. I thought they'd have no chance after H1.
Did someone comment on Water Intelligence (LON:WATR) recently? Update today looks positive and chart looks like a good base forming? Any thoughts?
Deleted
Brickability (LON:BRCK) might have found a bottom. Interesting how the overnight 8% drop (a few days ago) technically filled a gap below! Just like Stelrad, I sold out of Brickability (LON:BRCK) a few weeks ago after the post election bounce. Again it looks like it might be time to give it another go. I do like the long term chart. If it can just get past the resistance at around 65 to 75p.
There you go Revs8, if you want to extrapolate, it looks to me like a reversion to mean will give the top line a very healthy boost.
Brick delivery data, unbelievable, you're welcome......
Is the red line the average from 18-19, which seems a bit random?
Presumably to find a base of 2 ' normal ' , pre-Covid years ?
Stelrad (LON:SRAD) may have just performed a successful retest of the breakout (my favorite pattern). Held this until it became likely a retest was going to happen. Might be time to give Stelrad (LON:SRAD) another go (higher confidence this time and a little discount). MACD, TSI and RSI all turning in the right direction.
Hi Wolf.
I think the answer to your posed question 'Is the scene set for summer stage 2s' is a resounding no overall. No breakout in AIM market more like a breakdown. The vast majority of the stocks mentioned in the initial post have lost value, a few moved sideways and a couple are up.
This is in no way a criticism, maybe all the falling companies would have triggered a sell if following Stans analysis. I think this thread is great it would be brilliant to start again in the New Year with a new thread and maybe commence a new thread each quarter or monthly, see how it goes. New question 'Are we done with stage 1 yet'.
To be fair when Wolf set this up in summer there were plenty of belters to the upside, would be great to see a new thread set up for 2025.
And tbf, the early election call, the budget and transition to a new government pretty much stalled the nascent summer rally...
it really did. I've said it before here was doing great literally up to the election calling then stalled going back and forth up until about 2 weeks ago.
Exactly right, there are times to be aggressive and times to be defensive.
As Stan himself pointed out the song the Gambler by Kenny Rogers is very apt for trading.
Actually the AIM index has just gone above 50DMA, not looked at many individual stocks but 1Spatial (LON:SPA) looks promising.
There are lots of stocks in stage 2 still but not that many setting up.
Hey Wolf, how are you? Not seen you for a few days......so what have you been trading and don't say Audioboom (LON:BOOM)
Ha, I did buy a few Audioboom after the trading update, sold last week tho.
Last fortnight I've bought M&S,Justgroup, Brickability for trades. Couple of spreadbets also
Promised my daughter I'd redo her bathroom before Xmas so I'm busy with that this week. Carrying a bath and chipboard flooring up to the 3rd floor isn't my idea of fun anymore
Good for you.....I hate doing that stuff now, might change the odd light bulb and leaf blow the garden otherwise get someone in I say (to my wife).
I like Just (LON:JUST) as well.
Good luck with the renos, I do not envy you ;)
I would have thought with your skills Wolf you could have flipped a couple of stocks walked away with a few grand , got some local traders in to do the work whilst you oversaw operations from a comfy camping chair, with a cup of tea and copy of the racing post.
with the price of tradesmen these days? He's not actually Weinstein lol
/s
In my 20s I was a tradesman so any talk of paying someone to do the work is a direct threat to my manhood :)
Thankfully now steal a living ̶G̶a̶m̶b̶l̶i̶n̶g̶ investing, which is much more civilised.
very true even those sweeping up seem to be on £250 - £300 per day lol
With all the negative data recently we could have hit a sentiment bottom, short term at least. Consumer negativity is surprising because many will be better off, yet the government decided to freak everyone out for political reasons. Expecting PMI numbers to drop below 50 later today........... Edit: PMI slightly better than forecast
Fund flows showing lots of selling and buybacks around the budget
Nice, "the bigger the base the bigger the breakout" ;-))
Facilities by ADF (LON:ADF)
https://newsfile.refinitiv.com...
Marsden Proctor, CEO of Facilities by ADF (LON:ADF) buys just under 80,000 shares on 02-12-24.
I hold.
Graham.
Hmmmm......after fleecing investors for millions and then announcing a profits warning 10 weeks later I would expect more than a poxy £24k trade to restore my trust in management, maybe if there was a zero behind it I would take note but not for me, which is a shame cause the thesis behind the business was quite good.....
But good luck, I hope it works out for you
Little bit of volume in Water Intelligence (LON:WATR) yesterday:
Is On Beach group (LON:OTB) likely to breakout tomorrow if the results are as good as easyJet (LON:EZJ) And Jet2 (LON:JET2) ? Seem to have spent all year building a base around 140p/150p after hitting 180p last December. Nudged up to 165p last week. Fingers crossed.
And what a breakout it was sevenccc!
I hope you were on it, I wasn’t
BDO suggest November was tough for retail on the high street, and even tougher online. Wizzy chart if you click through.
https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/ne...
Think I'll go pour a supreme cuppa Typhoooo
Evoke (LON:EVOK)
Morning all, probably too early for the more disciplined amongst you, but Evoke has caught my eye...we've had upgrades, starting to climb above the 50 day, and Artemis have provided the volume with a doubling of their stake in the last few days. A nice exciting risky Christmas punt with all the trimmings..
Thanks for highlighting Evoke (LON:EVOK) Burnt Onions. I couldn't resist that double bottom with positive RSI!
picked up a few more shares in Vistry (LON:VTY) at more or less the same price i paid a year ago in Oct 23
although strictly speaking i had been following since they bought countryside in 2022 which i owned as a merger-arb (although i rejected vistry shares then at the £5.20 buy-out because i refused to pay a penny more than £5.00 a share lol)
anyway: i bought in Oct 23 on the calculation that they would only do £200m pre-tax, that they didn't need to hit their wild ~£800m target X years out (but that would be a nice bonus), and that they didn't need to delete their share count at 7%+ a year like NVR (NYQ:NVR) (but that would be another even nicer bonus)
heads i win, tails i still win, as the saying goes
as it happens, they guided for £350m pre-tax, which is now revised to £300m (hence the 50% share price drop since Oct). still got that margin of safety, ben graham approved
although I see the PTM levy is going up on 2nd Dec...£1.00 to £1.50
Thanks RJS89, whilst I’m sure your numbers are correct for Vistry (LON:VTY) it’s not just the reduction in estimates which has led to the fall in SP there are huge governance issues at play with the co. That said vague bid rumours have started to percolate this week so should be an interesting few months ahead.
Vistry (LON:VTY) The directors have bought large amounts, l have a small holding.
What's everyone's thoughts on buying when there is a lot of overhead resistance nearby?
Also buying way below the 200 sma?
Both make me wary but seems slim pickings if avoiding both. Especially the overhead resistance.
As a generality if there is no technical reason to buy you would need a fundamental reason ( you have done a lot of research and feel it will beat expectations etc) .
It is all risk reward , if you buy a stock on a whim that is below 200sma and has a lot of resistance it depends on your time frame. If you are buying it as a value trade and dont mind holdings for a few months/years it could be OK.
Investing/trading is all about what you are trying to achieve, if you work full time but want to self invest just buy an S&P tracker and accept the volatility, boring but as long as you dont buy the peak it would be hard to replicate by doing it yourself doing a few hours research at the weekends.
Way, this sounds like a very good idea for a new thread - Sensible Slim Picking Punts - or something like that, why don't you start it up?....... i like the idea ;)
On that very subject I am itching to buy CVS (LON:CVSG) even though all the books tell me to 'wait, wait, wait.......' Discipline can be such a drag!
Sensible and punts in the same title. An oxymoron I can get behind. Maybe it'll be a 2025 thread full of winners... Or just empty as we are all disciplined and wait and watch.
Patience. Slim pickings, no pickings, wait a while...
Helios Underwriting (LON:HUW) has broken out, maybe pumped by some share tipster? I hold.
I'm watching Bodycote (LON:BOY) and Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) at the moment, l hold both.
Plenty of profit warnings about, l'm tempted to take some profits and cut some losers.
Rusty,
It was mentioned in the last Twin Pete’s podcast by one of the presenters Henry Viola-Hare. He was told about it by someone at Mello in Derby.
Graham.
Thanks for that. I believe it is a Simon Thompson (lnvestors Chronicle) tip as well, not sure if he has re-tipped it recently as l'm not a subscriber. Can't keep track of all these tips.
The FD from Helios Underwriting (LON:HUW) presented at Mello. I watched it and he presented a very compelling case to invest. Funnily enough it then started to move the following day, sadly I was pondering buying into Filtronic (LON:FTC) instead.
Dowlais (LON:DWL) seems to be experiencing a trend reversal. It has been unremittingly down ever since IPO. I have bought in based purely on the chart. The auto sector is not doing well at the mo. Helpfully, it has tight spreads.
I have been looking at this for a couple of months now and took a very small opening position about 3 weeks ago after speaking to people in the industry who I know that do M&A's and one of them had their finance guys go through the figures. The powdercoating company should easy be sold near to the market cap, they were saying multiples of 4-5 in this sector, although they are UK based so aren't doing much acquistions currently. A US company could easily take this out, I mean, Dowlais (LON:DWL) core business isn't too shabby, even though it's a cyclical business. Their parts for cars, including EVs are used in almost 50% of cars in the world - and they have a Chinese JV which helps get into that market.
Unless of course, since the IPO management have decided to cook the books and lie about what is happening - which as you say, given the share price has done nothing to assist.
I locked into something like an 8.5% yield too, which seems doesn't seem to be an issue, Patience on this one, there will be a buyer soon for the powder division, even a derisory bid of 2xebitda would put £300m into the coffers and almost half market cap.
I think I might just go and buy some more!
Here is a useful edison note: https://www.edisongroup.com/re...
MS International (LON:MSI) battered about a bit in the last few months but previous December updates have been good so one to keep an eye on perhaps:
Avon Technologies (LON:AVON) Concurrent Technologies (LON:CNC) Cohort (LON:CHRT) have had strong recent moves so hoping MS International (LON:MSI) will follow suit
MS International (LON:MSI) Up 5% today.
Rusty,
what a lovely bounce off 550p support ! I totally missed it :-(( . Mind you I would be out by now with 10% gain.
Bodycote (LON:BOY) just on the 30WMA, looks like a cup and handle, to me. Only bought recently, looking for more than 10% gain.
Breakout by Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) ticking several boxes. Not out of the woods until it survives a retest. I hold.
Could say we're about as bad as sentiment could get, maybe? At least we aren't France. Yet.
"Thursday's survey showed that optimism among consumer services businesses sank to its lowest since August 2022 at -55 in November, down from -19 in August, while among business and professional services sentiment fell to -29 from +9."
To which I might add the following from today's Telegraph. For some peculiar reason nearly one in five consumers are upbeat about the immediate outlook for the economy:
Why so gloomy TEIN? Feels like the Eyeores have it at the moment! Cheer up you lot it's time to put the Christmas Trees up. The only reason for being downbeat in the short term is as someone suggested earlier in the string that Rachel from Accounts says you've all been very naughty.
If those surveys are talking about the next 3 months then I can't see why there is all the gloom. Inflation is back near target, interest rates are coming down and I'd expect the next cut in Jan or Feb, Pensions, benefits and NIC cuts for Employees from this Spring are all positive additions to spending power. What's not to like? Even the 'high' energy costs are lower than last year and are only going up £21 in Jan....which has upset the media as they can't really complain about less than 50p a week.
Conversely come April and the new Minimum Wage, erNIC extortion kicking in and Trump/Putin doing something (even more) stupid than expected and it will probably be different. IMO the UK market is full of Black Friday offers and with 3 Takeover Bids revealed just today - Loungers, Direct Line and Renewi - I'm happy to be fully invested. As usual I am probably wearing the rose-tinteds.
Expect to see a good Christmas for Card Factory (LON:CARD) and the recent drop in IG Design (LON:IGR) looks a nice entry point too. Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) and the travel companies should keep performing too. easyJet (LON:EZJ) and Jet2 (LON:JET2) both seem to be making good noises and I'm hoping that will feed through to On Beach group (LON:OTB) when they next update.
One area I'm not sure I look of despite their current lows is the Fund Management sector. I have a feeling that this sector is suffering a structural realignment. Younger punters are more interested in Crypto, drawing in huge funds whether we agree or not, Trackers and Tech (as they understand it better than we do, in general). The steeply downward graphs just serve to reinforce their scepticism, and for the last couple of years who can blame them? Will they really pick up to previous levels with the extra competition for their money?
And I share the sentiment that housebuilding isn't really going to move the needle much, certainly in the next 2 years, regardless of what progress we make on Interest Rates and Planning Laws. I do hold Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW.) and Eurocell (LON:ECEL) as part of the portfolio just in case and for a decent yield while we wait.
Anyway that's cheered me up even though the days are still drawing in. Anyone else?
cheered me up too, brilliant, here's my contribution!
Haha, I'd like one of these every day in December please Plinkut.
oh no please don't encourage me!
Plinkut, any Seinfeld/Larry David references get an automatic green light with me, post at will!
Dear sevenccc, if you want to understand why the BRC research data was 'gloomy', (your description, not theirs) then perhaps ask them rather than me. I merely shared a newspaper article relevant to another also posted here.
Hi TEIN
My comment wasn't really aimed at you. It was more the general tone of the thread that seemed to have turned so gloomy and yours was the last post in the sequence. Apologies if you felt singled out.
Just noticed that Harwood Capital have taken an initial position in Kooth (LON:KOO) today. Possible recovery play?
That's a bold move by Harwood. I immediately thought of Kooth as the type of business Trump would want to weed out.
If it's funded state by state if may well help them as the blue states may see a boom in mental health issues caused in part by how hyped up anti trump sentiment is and the Dems place greater importance on it so it'll be the last thing they cut... maybe.
Plus from what it sounds like RFK Jnr wants to cut down reliance on medication. So they may well go down the mental health route more.
But who knows how anything will land. Could well see Elon cutting the lot.
hVIVO (LON:HVO) maybe a trade opportunity now. Better candle yesterday, would prefer to see volume tho. Wouldn't be a good time for them to show another decline in order book
I agree Wolf, but do hold :)..... Oversold RSI reading of 29, this really does feel an huge overreaction to RFK's appointment.... potentially an update ( like last year ) mid December, but at this stage there's hopefully no reason to fear bad news....
hVIVO (LON:HVO) director C. Friel, did sell £6m @29p.
I also hold.
100% Rusty... back in July and 40 % higher price than now ... I seem to remember that he has a reputation of being a serial entrepreneur and has a history of moving fairly swiftly onto his next big project....
Does seem an over the top reaction, but who knows.
Spdr S&P Biotech Etf (PCQ:XBI) v hVIVO (LON:HVO)
This was a very rare case where I averaged down because it felt like a single investor had just decided to get out. If you entered this trade at 20p I think you’ll do well. Overhead resistance around 25/26p where all the trapped buyers will want to get their money back! And quick traders will settle for a quick 25% profit.
Still 25% for a short trade is not to be sniffed at! If I weren’t already a holder I’d be very happy entering at 20p.
Of course there is still the possibility that there is something wrong at hVIVO (LON:HVO) but no news is good news for now IMO.
hVIVO (LON:HVO) l thought about topping up but too risky, l would be averaging up., but does it really matter? Some of my average ups have gone badly wrong.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) breaking out above 150p, with 200p a fairly reasonable target.
Usually has a mid December operational update .
Yesterday I took the plunge and bought small positions in a number of US stocks, all of which have gapped up, pulled back and are going up again. I am doubtless far too late to the party but we will see. I'm not sure if stocks generally retrace in Thanksgiving week or not. Shows how ignorant I am about US stocks. Didn't buy UAVS unfortunately. Up 250% yesterday
Here's a question for you guys. Cash. People state they should stay x% in cash.
Basic example, if you start the year with 100k, with a view to keeping 30% in cash, so 30k.
You end the year at 150k. Do you start unwinding your winners to ensure you have 30% cash, or keep the status quo?
I've often wondered about this but have never come to a solid conclusion, especially with a view you should run your winners....
Personally I don't have a set % to hold in cash every year, if the markets positive then I want to be fully or close to fully invested, if it looks weak then I'd adjust the opposite way. Tend to just bend with the market, with the main aim not being caught fully invested during a big selloff.
I wouldn't sell winners just to hit a pre determined cash level, that seems too mechanical. I'd always look at the losers to chop first anyway.
Depends on the markets, if rising then you want to be less in cash, if falling or like the UK now then more in cash. I'm about 30% cash now, UK market difficult, US can't find anything to buy, all looks too expensive, taking some profits. I like to have around 10% in cash, in case, good opportunities arise. I don't like selling shares to buy others, often does not work for me.
Hi Viz,
I always hold cash and get anxious if I'm fully invested even though in theory I can just sell one thing to buy another I've convinced myself is more promising. The way things are I think of cash as an insurance policy and am sadly significantly more cash now than 'normal'. That said I can be anxious thinking about cash doing not very much and the opportunity cost of it not being used. I am guilty in the current climate of banking profits, otherwise known as ditching my winners.
I can't express my approach any better than Wolf's reply but I might add that I tend to shy away from very illiquid stocks and I'm quite concentrated right now, more cash tends for me to mean fewer holdings and I'm constantly focused on the bottom of the league.
I don't start over each new calendar or tax year, but do think about what cash I'm adding and when, as that obviously makes a material difference to the ratio.
Brickability (LON:BRCK) and Stelrad (LON:SRAD) dropping hard at the end of the day. Kingfisher (LON:KGF) losing 12% today.
3 and 2 year charts on Creightons (LON:CRL) .
2.5 x normal volume today on no news going into results on 28/11. Hardly any dilution since 2020, the shares spiked to the 130s in the Covid boom but have been sub 20p recently. It looks like a new CEO has got the company back on its feet. Not an obvious breakout area on the chart but if it breaks 43p it could run up quite quickly.
Creightons (LON:CRL) No news but Cockney Rebel talked about them in his weekly Substack on Friday, most specifically that they're featuring at M&S in their gifting for Christmas. Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) talked at their recent capital market day about how they think they can do a lot more in health and beauty. And fresh fish!
https://www.spglobal.com/marke...
Can't see what will turn this around given the gov't tax and spend agenda. However, the turn around usually occurs just as everyone becomes despondent. Have we reached that point yet? Probably in retail, hospitality and farming.
I don't think so, things could get a lot worse. I'm struggling to see where the promised growth will come from, the Govt. budget seems to be doing the opposite. A recent poll had Labour down to only 25%, Tories had 28%. So feelings have changed quite quickly. They have sent out very negative messages. Shot themselves in the foot with the winter fuel allowance, it will not even save them much money.
I'm every bit as concerned about the UK as you are Wolf, question is what to do next?
I've been increasing cash holdings since the Budget, retaining only high conviction small caps and leaning into a lot of defensive income plays. I believe we are nailed on for a recession in 2025 and the BoE will have to reduce rates quicker than the market expects (i accept the inflationary thesis behind the tax rises but i think this ultimately fails if the demand side of the equation collapses).
I know everyone bullish about US and I have some exposure there, not enough, but hesitant to increase direct plays at these levels.
Important to avoid mistakes in this market, I doubt next year it will be very forgiving...
Buying some TLT in the last month, tho that could go wrong if yields rise as many think. Yields seem to be rolling over today tho.
I've had a decent year so don't mind at all if the market pushes me to all cash next year. Im actually quite looking forward to a quieter few months.
WOSS. You sound confident you can kick the habit! ;) You'll need something else to keep you away from the charts!
:) I'm much better than I used to be. I'd get cold turkey after a week when I first started.
You find it easy to sit on your hands Revs?
Nope. Had to take up teaching physics to keep me from becoming a chart hermit! Still need to keep my hand in so I can afford to be a teacher though.
Its the down bit in 'what goes up must come down' that worries me.
Yes Revs8, you’re absolutely right about this, nobody discusses how the market is a drug and we’re all hooked on it..takes a lot of will power to sit on cash for months on end, I’m hopeless at it but working on it.
My cash % seems to creep up without me touching my holdings ;o)
Is it possible for you to give some examples of defensive income plays?
Hi rogerh,
Yes, I would say defensive income has a broad definition, traditionally staples and utilities etc but for me, I also extend this definition to property reits, insurers and some investment trusts.
And the reason I am drawn to income at present is because I don't think there is a market crash around the corner (but obviously I don't know) but I do think there is a high probability of a stagnant sideways market under Labour, in which case compounded dividends returns are a way of moving forward with hopefully reduced risk and stress.
So in the last few weeks I have been buying Supermarket Income REIT (LON:SUPR) , yields 9% at 69p, and a 20% discount to NAV, reinvesting those dividends every year raises my yield by 1% every year, add in a re-rating, (once we slide into recession and rates start tumbling down... just my personal thesis) then I think this should work out over the next few years (I always think in terms of years when it comes to property).
Helios Underwriting (LON:HUW) Have amended their capital allocation policy and are reducing capacity to increase their returns to shareholders instead, again not everybody's cup of tea but I like insurance businesses.
JPMorgan Global Core Real Assets (LON:JARA) and Residential Secure Income (LON:RESI) are being wound up, again a bit of patience required but 20% or so returned over the next 12-18 months with a relatively low risk profile, I'll take it..
A number of my friends have been buying gilts lately but I think WOSS's trade buying US treasuries is better, I think I would rather be in $ than £ over the next few years.
Lots of income opportunities in the investment trust sector, lots of income opportunities everywhere.....
Many thanks indeed for the helpful reply
That chart can't be right Wolf, it was only today Rachel from Accounts told the CBI that the budget was going to be good for jobs and growth.
Synectics (LON:SNX)
Congratulations to holders of Synectics, what a ride it has had this year and it doesn't seem to want to stop. Unfortunately for me it never bloody retraces so I have missed it, note to myself ..... sometimes just pay up!
Anexo (LON:ANX) Am I mad for considering this? The chart looks promising, the stock looks super cheap but cash collection is a major problem......
Yep Synectics (LON:SNX) doing well. It's so hard psychology wise to buy a share when it has risen so much, I know I would struggle to buy it now even though broker has it targeting £100m revenues in a few years time. Wish I had bought more when I did, but I'm happy with buying a smaller amount at a lower price 2 years ago and holding. See no reason atm to sell.
I agree gmtrader but once you do get a foothold, and especially at a good level, it's not hard to average up, I personally love adding to winning positions, your average price moves up but you are still onside, much much better than averaging down.
Well done for getting in when you did.
That’s the fun thing, everyone has a different strategy.
You did well to hold on to Synectics (LON:SNX) as it did nothing for a year. I only bought recently in August, but even so it has almost doubled, my best performing share in the last 3 months. I nearly sold when the CEO died. Since then the share price has taken off.
Yep. Saw the potential. It struggled with contracts after Covid but I was impressed how well they managed their costs, allowing them to progress without dilution and funding.
Paul Scott slated Anexo (LON:ANX) He believes that the cash they claim is owed to them will never be paid. I have to admit the chart does look enticing.
Worth taking a look at Pan African Resources (LON:PAF. Broke upward out of the trend channel, then retraced back to the top trend line before bouncing back up. Broke above the last high before retracing back on the same day. Worth watching to see if it breaks up again.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news...
Relative Strength (RSI): Questions for the chartists.
1. How useful/ reliable is this indicator?
2. Is the trend line important? ie if the score falls from 70 to 50 does that suggest a time to sell. The trend line is not clear on Stocko charts.
3. Do people buy at below 30/20 and sell at 70/80?
4. Stan Weinstein recommends relative strength but his indicator appears to be relative to the sector as opposed to overbought or oversold. I cannot find this tool on any charts.
You can get Weinstein`s relative strength indicator on Trading View. Search for Mansfield Relative Strength and there`s a few choices. Or you can get an indicator on Sharepad which shows the price of the share relative to your chosen index, for UK I tend to use FTSE 250 as its less market capitalised weighted
I don’t know why anyone would use the FTSE 250 as a benchmark given its heavily weighted to Financials; mainly Investment Trusts.
I had not considered that. I see Vanguard FTSE 250 has 25% weighting to asset management and 7% to capital markets. However Vanguard FTSE 100 has 22% weighting to oil & gas, 22% weighting to pharmaceuticals and nearly 19% to banks, so is this that representative and FTSE All Share wont be much better as FTSE 100 dominates. But at least with FTSE 250 no one share has more than 1.2% allocation, whereas for FTSE 100 Astra Zeneca and Shell have 8% weighting. So I consider FTSE 250 better as at least investment trusts cover all areas of the market including international listed shares. Though if you want to be specific maybe a small share listed on AIM should be compared against the AIM All Share index. Or even better can someone created a UK index which covers the roughly 2000 shares listed on an equal weighted basis.
So I’m presuming Weinstein uses the S&P 500?
The book says S&P Composite but you can use any index as look as its consistent.
Weinstein has some recent interviews on YouTube that you may find interesting, his strategy has changed recently.
Am I right in thinking he uses shorter time frames. In his book written in the 1980s he uses a 130day MA but not sure what he recommends now. 50 dayMA?
Thought it was 30 weeks not 130 days? Yes he uses 50DMA and daily more now. He said things move quicker now. Think he still uses 30 weeks and weekly.
Thanks Rusty2
Thanks for the advice
Hi SCI20
RSI is not the same as Mansfield Relative strength.
RSI is a momentum indicator. Best used to look for positive divergence in the low (buying signal) or negative divergence at the high (selling signal) but it is far from foolproof.
I tend to see RSI above 55 as strength and below 45 as weakness.
RSI at 80+ overbought 20- oversold, but look at previous peaks for each stock.
You can trend the RSI to look for breakouts or peaks.
IMO It tends to confirm past moves rather than help forecast them.
Games Workshop (LON:GAW) ,
Got this one right at least after a few misteps on others through the summer! Posted here on 11 Sep at 10470.
Anyone looking at Centrica (LON:CNA) ? Looks quite ‘bull flaggy’ on the longer term monthly TF, potential for a morning star reversal on those monthly candles too. Stochastic is oversold and has offered a buy signal. Energy prices rising again and decent levels of director buying through the summer months. I’ve taken a starter position today with funds freed up after Macfarlane (LON:MACF) got ditched due to constant down drift.
Made Tech (LON:MTEC) looking bowly. Good recent results although Paul was lukewarm to be fair.
Turns out government talking about how absolutely terrible things are has consequences. Imagine strangling your own honeymoon period.
Like almost everything in the opaque art of Economics. If you tell people loud enough for long enough that things are bad, they will behave accordingly and take fright.
Its been a Masterclass from Reeves and Starmer in how to disappoint your backers in record time. Might as well have had Reeves and Mortimer in charge.
Courtesy of the Torygraph.
What are the experts view on Chrysalis Investments (LON:CHRY) ? That came up on the screener I've noted below
Check the share count. It's makes the chart deceptive. Chart alone looks poised for a breakout but the dilution would put me off personally.
XPS Pensions (LON:XPS) which l thought had the best update today is down about 2%. Tempted to top up but have quite a full holding already.
I hold all the shares l have mentioned today.
Helios Underwriting (LON:HUW) Appeared on my new favourite screen (thanks again Wolf), Lloyds underwriting not for everyone but if you like playing the income compounding theme, and I do, then these are forecast to pay out 57p over the next 19 months, that's a stonking yield!
Hard to get rich quickly under this Government, I've certainly taken the foot of the pedal, anyway just an idea.....
Hi MR B (not sure on calling you BO :) ), can i see what screener criteria you are using, i'm using (thanks to Wolf):
Yes Newtarrow, I didn't think my initials through! Ok this is what I have been using, I'm new to it myself and trying to get up to speed asap but I like what it's been throwing up to date. Although you can't follow it blindly, and I would say the market as a whole is losing momentum it's a great starting point. Hopefully no Chinese whispers and all that.
ok thanks, I'm not sure on the Price vs 52w high. When Wolf said:
I presume that means the SP can be up to 30% below 12month high or above.
I'm not sure your Price vs 52w high <=30 does that (I think that is saying the SP can be anywhere up to 30% above the high)?
I also wasn't sure on Wolfs final criteria on relative strength being 30-50%
Are you saying i'm unintentionally screening for shares above their 52w high? I'm not sure that would throw up many options? ;) Let me revisit, I may have got this wrong...
EDIT - Hey Newtarrow, you're right, i've tweaked it although the results are actually the same (double negatives)...
Try Price v 52 week high > -30%
I think it should be Price vs 52w high >= -30%
i think your screening for stocks up to 130% of their 52w high
Some interesting market reactions to updates from companies today, most of which were good. CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) are down about 14%, l thought they would be up today, the chart was looking good, results were good. Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) was not sure about but they up 7%. Jet2 (LON:JET2) good update shares were up 10% but now only 5%. PayPoint (LON:PAY) in line, but shares off over 7%. It is a though market in the UK, really hard work.
I've sellotaped a tulip bulb to a piece of plywood if anyone wants to make me an offer. Postage £6.95
This artwork is Guaranteed to have a short shelf life! Something that needs to be taken into consideration. But it IS unique! As there’s only one Banana like that.
Graham.
But the latest version won't last long - because he's going to eat it.
"Additionally, in the coming days, I will personally eat the banana as part of this unique artistic experience, honouring its place in both art history and popular culture," Mr Sun said.
That made me laugh. Perhaps a signal that we are at the top of the market in the US? In a year we might be remembering the duct tape banana as being the peak!
You never know Wolf, you might start another Tulip mania. At its height a bulb was worth a large mansion in Amsterdam. Of course it was followed by a severe market crash. You are good at charts though so I am sure you would get out of any bubble before the moving averages went the wrong way.
6.2M$! The world has gone bananas!
My offer Wolf is £6.95 inclusive of your postage charge.
Haha. That was funny.
Made Tech (LON:MTEC) , nice break out today. A little frustrated as I trimmed my position by 30% recently. Still, good to see the rise and this is certainly one that could keep going now it's broken out. I wrote a piece on Made Tech (LON:MTEC) a few months back (can't remember if it was here or the main thread) and the main takeaway was the vast extent of the client base, a large number of government departments have ties and are being targeted over potential new contracts.
BenHazz,
There's a brokers note on Made Tech (LON:MTEC) at https://www.research-tree.com/...with the current upgrade announced today.
Graham.
Hi Graham, thanks for sharing. I had not seen this.
Problem with this trade is
"Last week, Nexxen said its plans to delist from London and trade its ordinary shares on Nasdaq in New York instead of American depositary receipts. The company also announced plans for a reverse share split at a two-for-one ratio which will allow for a one-to-one exchange of the ADRs into ordinary shares. "
Made Tech (LON:MTEC) So yesterday it was Avon and today it's MTEC, is this what it's like in the Wolf Weinstein Momentum Club, you just screen and collect? Not too bad this club, I've definitely been in worse over the years.... ;)
There is a lot of work involved though, and I can see looking at Renold's results today, you can't just trust it blindly, got to apply your knowledge and experience to each individual situation but what a fabulous starting point for research.
I already have a short list of momentum buys (with a decent thesis behind each one), but missed the lion share of the move already.....
Anpario (LON:ANP) Synectics (LON:SNX) M P Evans (LON:MPE) Rank (LON:RNK) St James's Place (LON:STJ) to name but a few
Food for thought and lots of repositioning to do (or not)..
The only downside is that this was yet another idea for research from Yiannos1 originally:(
A great loss...
They don't always work and can go badly wrong, you only have to look at IG Design (LON:IGR) and Next 15 (LON:NFG).
100% Rusty ... although, I confess that I bought IG Design (LON:IGR) yesterday as a tuck away , value play... probably blasphemous on this thread, but there's plenty of ways to skin the proverbial... looks to be basing around here, although could be a long wait for a double...
Probably the wrong thread again, but this seems to be where all the action is... hVIVO (LON:HVO) just hit a buy level for me with the 21p handle ... sell off since RFK's appointment seems potentially overdone...
Hi Cancun, I know little about hVIVO (LON:HVO) so can't comment on what's going on with the company, though it's been discussed in this thread before now. The chart doesn't look too great, noting also the 50 day has gone below the 200 and the highs and lows are both getting lower:
100 % agree Tein... it's just the very oversold RSI reading of 27 , which tempted me into a purchase of what I hope will be a long term compounder ... it has reached a level where the market must be looking for a profit warning / similar bad news... or else the voting machine / lack of liquidity is causing havoc ....I'm trying to get better at following momentum / 2nd stage etc., but for the long term buy and hold shares , buy low / sell high still sways me ... definitely a higher risk position though ... but I certainly can't disagree with any of your analysis...
Perhaps I should have put it on the other thread, but this feels like a more technical , up to date, market movements thread...
Many thanks indeed for your comments though...
I'm sure your hVIVO (LON:HVO) comment is entirely appropriate Cancun, and my posting the chart means the SP will inevitably rebound strongly tomorrow and you'll be quids in. Happy days.
I hope so Tein, but I suspect that it may fill the gap down to 20p... I just wanted to make sure that I did get something on board , as you know how thin / quickly this can turn...
hVIVO (LON:HVO) I got this one wrong and now licking my wounds. Can’t win them all.
Not sure why it’s sold off. Normally I’d have exited but the SP is now retesting the breakout. A successful retest is my favourite entry point so I’m only selling if there is a close below here.
Revs8,
I too, averaged down on this one hVIVO (LON:HVO) convinced it had just dropped on the appointment of RFK. I thought it had dropped too far but how wrong can you be at times? I might be tempted back in again but will wait for them to tick up. I'm not very good at this charting, but then again, i didn't buy on charting analysis!
On the flipside,
I bought into Made Tech (LON:MTEC) when the brilliant Yiannos1 drew my attention to it! Luckily I held on when it got sold off a bit around the budget and almost topped up a bit at the time, but sadly didn't. This one looks like it go up a lot from here if they can keep the orders coming in!
Graham.
4imprint (LON:FOUR) recently reported, agaist a falling SP since a peak in April. Five year chart below. Not a stock that's going to double overnight but it's quality, and a few of things have peaked my interest:
Calnex Solutions (LON:CLX) reported today. As expected figures not great but has optimistic outlook for H2 next year (but companies are always optimistic). Am surprised the SP had held up not too badly
Welcome to momentum club Mr B. Anyway here's some interesting looking charts this morning. All seem to be trading well with possibility of upgrades?
GB (LON:GBG) Avon Technologies (LON:AVON) Beeks Financial Cloud (LON:BKS)
As mentioned before maybe you can add Bodycote (LON:BOY) to that list.
I used to hold Avon Technologies (LON:AVON),GB (LON:GBG) and Bodycote (LON:BOY) . I di hokd Beeks Financial Cloud (LON:BKS)
Avon Technologies (LON:AVON) So i ran my new screen last night and this old favourite popped up which combined with blistering results this morning, I'm guessing it's going to take off......positive endorsement I would say.
Not sure. Did your screen have GB (LON:GBG) on it?
Quite a few stocks have price going up into results but then come down on the day, if results not better than expected.
Bodycote (LON:BOY) and Calnex Solutions (LON:CLX) reporting today. Both were looking good on the charts, but Calnex Solutions (LON:CLX) is down 7% today.
I was looking ti buy back into Bodycote (LON:BOY)
Hi Rusty, no none of the ones you mention were on it
Hi Burnt Onions, I see, l wonder why Avon Technologies (LON:AVON) was?
I used to hold but has been a long flat period, they also looked expensive compared their peers, so l sold out. Should have held on, this is typical when l sell out. On Beach group (LON:OTB) will be shooting up now.
I looked into those stocks, l can see why Avon Technologies (LON:AVON) is on your screen, it was just below the 30WMA, the others, l mentioned , are still some way below it, apart from GB (LON:GBG).
This may sound rather amateur, but it's taken time for me to recognise it's a good discipline to scan price movers at the end of each day, then check the move versus the norm and whether if they're reporting imminently. Avon Technologies (LON:AVON) moved nearly 5% yesterday, 'leaky' as Wolf described such a move recently when we discussed a very big downward move on Team Internet (LON:TIG) the day before it's poor update. It's a quick job that helps provide focus and order priorities for the following day.
Thanks WoSS. I think I will use this for my kids ISA's too. Given that technically I'm almost 30 years from retirement, it may also work in my favour given the long time span.
Blimey, the farmers are ready to rumble.
P.s Viz it's weekly so have to wait for it to confirm . I sold half when it last triggered, then paid 250 points higher to buy back. That's just the price you pay. It can go 3 years without having to do anything, or it may trigger 4 times in a year.
That's made my day Wolf. If all else fails Farmer Clarkson may just go full Guy Fawkes 2.0 and save us all a lot of trouble:
?si=jMRx0M51OUzFC74v
Pure tv gold Wolf.
This video seems to cover off well what Wolf was talking about last week re EMA crossover's if it's wrong and I am giving punters duff info Wolf holla, but the fella making these video's used to be on Stocko and is trusted.
That is exactly it phoenix. I'd only use it on the S&P500 . I could ramble on all day about strategies for using it and other indicators to add to this but this is as simple and effective as I've ever found.
I had a look at that, seems to drop down quite a few times such as 2022 and 2023. Then bounce back quite quickly. 2020, if you had waited until the 10ma crossed the 20ma, the index was near its low.
I see it as a system to help with 10+ year S&P tracker investment. Some people will hate the false signals it gives like 2023, then having to buy back higher.
Hiya WoSS - on these 'false' signals, do you wait for a day or two before committing, or just use the process and it is what it is?
I use an EPS upgrade screener on stocko Mr B, Minervini type filter for up trends and have a 150-200 watchlist I keep a half eye on for weekly breakouts into stage 2.
I use sharepad but can do a Minervini style filter on Stocko. Can tweak it to suit
Heres the EPS upgrade screen. Can also screen for EPS upgrades from last 3 months (of at least 2% say) and add this to the screener above. Every one of the 9 you mention would have been on this list at some point. Beeks I have got the full move but others like Filtronic I maybe got 45% of the 200% move, but it was quick.
Theres a quote from Minervini which is something like "I don't mind being late to the party, but I want a party to be happening when I get there" which is what I'm interested in.
Generally I try to rule out any with EPS forecasts lower than the current year, ignore low PE if theres no growth, Not interested in profit warnings, Id rather pay 20x for something growing with visibility and an uptrend.
New Stage 2 charts with no earnings upgrades showing yet are harder, as they have the possibility of a profit warning or institutional profit taking, so need more care
I live in the wilds of Scotland now so not far off with your off-grid comment Phoenix.
Thanks for the heads up on the Stan W video where he emphasises the importance of the 50MA even more for an investor like myself. I have created a much simplified screen as a starter to seek breakout opportunities. It does include Wise (LON:WISE) and Morgan Sindall (LON:MGNS.
Price vs MA 50d >= 5% Quality Rank > 80 Rel Strength 1m > 5% Stock Rank™ > 80
Wolf, you are too kind and generous, both in spirit and in mind. A lot of investors, myself included, are super grateful to you for your knowledge sharing.
Scotland is a bit of a trek for me but you've got the best golf courses in the UK so i'm not averse to a little trip up there once in a while...I don't want to air my ideas in full stocko public view but we're not done with this conversation just yet, I will revert in good time.
Thank you once again.
Totally agree Onions 1% of the worlds population are generally the worst of the worst unfortunately often in positions of great power but the other 99% of humanity normally want to help each other.
We might have lost Paul S but there are some brilliant traders on this platform who are happy to give up their time to try and give others a leg up long may it continue.
Yeah, well said Phoenix
Hey @ Burnt Onions are you Rachel Reeves??? Hope so....
Was it my initials that gave me away Dave?
Wolf, I have to say I was so impressed with you managing to snare 9 of the top 30 winners last year (for context I thought I did well catching 3) that I have come to the conclusion there is definitely something in this Weinstein brand of investing so I too am reading the book and on my way to being converted...
2 questions for you:
How do I screen for this on stocko? and if stocko can't do it which charting package is effective?
What part of the country do you live in? because one day I may have to blow my cover and buy you dinner and put an interesting proposal in front of you..
Thanks
I think Wolf would be better getting off grid asap if us lot ever figure out who he is at something like a Mello event or such like, Mrs Wolf won't be seeing him for at least six months the amount of free pints and dinners he is owed lol.
Decent move today Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR)
Was just a trade so banking the profit but well worth tracking market performance of its largest funds, which is easy to do with Polar, for a potential trade around AUM dates .
Morning Wolf, just a note of thanks for all your insights on this thread. Really helpful. Did you figure things out all by yourself, with a little help from Stan, or did you have a mentor?
My son forwarded me the latest video with Stan on TraderLion which I watched last night. It all seems so simple when you watch Stan...
I viewed the video you posted on 'Where to park cash' by Pensioncraft. Totally fascinating. I have held cash in my accounts for years, if not decades, attracting zero or minimal interest. Now it seems I can bung it into a moneymarket fund like CSH2 and get 4.83% interest with minimal risk. Park the cash there, then cash out when a trading opportunity arises. Simples.
Where's the catch or has it just been my ignorance over the years...
Morning Roger, how long have you been investing? I started in the runup to the dot-com boom and bust so that scarred me for life. Made a real mess of things then, getting caught up in the hype of a bubble, so had to rethink everything after that. I made things worse by averaging down in a bear market, tho Ive never averaged down again since.
Read lots of books and spent a long time reading back over previous winners RNS looking for reasons for the outperformance, checking against a chart for pivot points. Then learnt a little of economic and sentiment cycles, especially enjoy Stans ideas because theyre so simple. I had to learn through trial and error but its easier these days because so much is available on YouTube, fees now are tiny also so can trade more if needed.
Once you view charts in stages things make much more sense, at least for me. How you describe it how I use CSH2 just now.
I spent half my life totally skint so I've probably got a bit of a chip on my shoulder, but there's nothing better than thrashing all these highly paid fund managers performance every year using such simple trading methods.
Hi Wolf,
On and off for a long time, though it had been more 'divesting' than 'investing' until fairly recently. It's gone a bit pear-shaped again since beginning September.
I was always too busy managing a small business to give stocks my full attention. We sold the business in 2007 and gave a proportion of the proceeds to 'professional' fund managers, having decided I didn't really know what I was doing. Neither did they it turned out and they very professionally lost a lot of it in 2008. Lesson learned...
The Intelligent Investor required too much intelligence and I didn't really seriously pick up the reins again until after joining Stocko in 2020. I have learnt a huge amount on here and your thread has been the icing on the cake, so thanks again.
All the best Yiannos, your incisive comments have 'blown the bloody doors off' an echo chamber many a time :-)
Thank you Yiannos for your excellent contributions. Good luck in Cali
Last post here!
Off to the west coast for 12 months starting from the 1st December.
Although I have retired early on in my life this is an offer no one can refuse.
Back to wealth management and for obvious reasons I cannot post here again.
All the best to all and special thanks to Wolfie for creating this thread and for his excellent and well balanced thoughts.
All the best, yiannos1. Thank you for giving us the benefit of your knowledge and insight here honestly and individually, regardless of reception. Much appreciated.
I hope the west coast treats you well and that you’ll be back posting here again in a year’s time.
Ah will be very sorry to see you go Yiannos. Your posts were always interesting, informative and educational and you were never afraid to go against received wisdom. It's a loss for us, have a great year and maybe come back then!!
Yiannos, have to say I admire your free thinking very much and will miss your opinions.
Wish you all the best for the future.
Best of luck Yiannos, your added value and your knowledge will be missed for sure, hopefully see you back here in a year..
Shame to see you go Yiannos hopefully we will see you back here at some point post 12 months.
All the best Yiannos. Alongside Wolf I have found your posts the most thought provoking and helpful. Good luck. BenHazz
Yiannos, compulsive reading to the last, I paraphrase your final two posts:
Friday evening: "We are not far from a Great Recession and a total collapse."
Saturday morning: "Last post here!"
Thank you so much for your comments and insights, you'll be missed. I wish you every success.
Best wishes Yiannos
You have opened my eyes to many opportunities. Hope to see you back here.
Yiannos, that's interesting....yes I'm not getting good vibes right now I must say.Politicians addicted to spending. Was just saying a few days ago I thought the US market was at the start of a euphoria phase. % of peoples wealth now in stocks is at a record or very close, valuations at highs, bitcoin roaring away, record ETF investment since the election, growth forecast looks far too bullish, lots of online crap from idiots saying how they've made a fortune using leverage and so on. Its the exact opposite of Autumn 2022. Markets sucking more people in. I'm a big fan of trackers, but even there everyone needs an escape plan.
Things are always fine until they're not. 2022 bear market was a pussycat, I'm very wary of 2025.
Apart from that did you enjoy your time in the US? :)
hVIVO (LON:HVO) agreed, it if makes 27.50 I would be a buyer.
Morning Gents, I use Research Tree & Sharecast to get my daily broker upgrades/downgrades etc but I'm not confident I'm capturing all of them, is there a service out there (paid or free) that offers a fully comprehensive summary that investors would recommend?
Many thanks
Helvellyn, I've also bailed on Keller (LON:KLR) this morning. Not because the TU was overly bad, but because the UK market is so pessimistic at the moment that the SP is being and will continued to get hammered. All a bit depressing....
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP)
I strongly believe that there is very good money to be made at current prices.
I am not sure that the new proposed law on oil exports from the Kurdish Region will pass from the first reading but it will be passed at the end.
I hold a rather full position.
All the best
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) at a key level. It faked out last time. Will it succeed now? Projected target of double bottom is 200p. I hold.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP)
Too low volume to get involved to analyse this in terms of TA and no algorithms involved. As most of the shares under £1B market cap.
I am always looking for fundamentals and FCF’s-they never lie if you are a very good accountant.
All the best
yiannos1 I know you like Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) , do you have a target price?
BTW my newspaper didn't arrive this morning so I don't know last night's football scores, could you help me with those too please . :-))
Ouch!!
That was unnecessary!! :-0
Still waiting for my newspaper as well!
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) assuming the pipeline reopens £5 will still make it undervalued based on FCF generation and future dividend payments.
All the best
Thanks and touche ;-))
Keller (LON:KLR) Was watching for a possible breakout here. Theres the answer
Me too Wolf,
But reading this morning's TU I was fairly sure it would drop. In-line would not be taken well after so many 'aheads' and a few negatives especially with the 'historical items' part. which I didnt understand. This nervous market does not take any prisoners ATM. Not sure where it will settle as there are a few gaps on that chart, albeit at much lower levels.
The government may actually do something beneficial. Probably get round to this in 2032
Investment research
While it is not seen as top of the agenda for the Treasury, similar disquiet is growing over the speed of delivery on a shake-up of the investment research landscape.
The investment research industry was inadvertently gutted by EU era regulation that forced asset managers to unbundle fees for investment bank research from their trading costs. The FCA this year tabled plans to row back on the bundling the rule.
While Hogan Lovells lawyer Rachel Kent turned around recommendations on how to revive the sector in double quick time at the behest of the former government, the speed in delivering on her recommendations has not matched.
At the heart of her plans was a research platform that would allow investors of all stripes to access professional analysis on listed companies. She told City AM while pension reform was rightly top of the agenda, “we need to set up the platform”.
“There is no need for government funding, except for some seed money, so that’s a no-brainer for me,” she said.
Water Intelligence (LON:WATR) seems to have built a good stage 1 base on the weekly chart. Above 30 week MA, recent EPS upgrades, Green on last SCVR. Looking at the daily, possible bull flag break with volume. Also I don’t believe Boohoo (LON:BOO) have got their sticky fingers into this one :) I’ve taken an initial position.
PayPoint (LON:PAY) will be added to the FTSE 250 index and deleted from the FTSE SmallCap index as of 15th Nov.
Is this what’s been driving the price higher? Will trackers need to balance portfolios? We’re in the volume gap at the moment (see previous post) so not much supply. I hold.
And PayPoint (LON:PAY) release half year results next week Revs8.
Yes Tein. 21st in my diary.
Such has been the climb do you see PayPoint (LON:PAY) at risk of profit taking if not better than in-line Revs8?
Tein. There is a risk of profit taking and at some point PayPoint (LON:PAY) will have to take a breather but there was huge volume at the end of today (biggest this year from my cursory look) which says to me that there is demand out there.
I hold PayPoint (LON:PAY) l did take some profits recently. So many UK stocks fall back, even after good updates, no harm in taking some profits to reinvest in other stocks.
Yes Revs8 trackers will rebalance.
Any interest in the apparent breakout at Melrose Industries (LON:MRO) ? Closed at 511p today having been higher during the day. Decent bounce from low around 418p mid October.
hVIVO (LON:HVO) is hVIVO going to finally breakout above the 30p line, it has failed twice before this year but on no news and a full normal day's volume it is up an unusual 4% . No news expected but there was an ahead of expectations RNS in mid December last year. I will keep watching.
Helvellyn, hVIVO (LON:HVO) testing the rising support level and bottom of recent price action at around 26.3p. Significant positive divergence on the RSI. TSI and MACD are rising. I’ve topped up here on the basis this might be a flush out of a seller taking advantage of the increased price earlier. If this point holds a strong H&S bottom will form. Breakdown from here will spell trouble as there is a long drop to the next support and a double top will form. As usual the market keeps us guessing!
hVIVO (LON:HVO) Yes Revs8 I've been watching that drop over the last 3 days, it doesn't like 30p+ , I'll keep watching and hopefully join in, good luck.
hVIVO (LON:HVO) triple bottom, is a strong sign?
If it forms Rusty! Need the price to rise above 27.5 to confirm.
Yes correct,if it forms.
Revs8,
Just topped up a little with hVIVO (LON:HVO) myself. looks like a big seller has been selling out?
Graham.
hVIVO (LON:HVO) Battle has commenced at 26p! High volume here and price sitting on the volume shelf. Who will exhaust first? Buyers or sellers? I’m buying and have added. Just hope this is a flush out not the portent to some bad news!
MS International (LON:MSI) looking like it may have a run up into December results. The dip below 200d moving average didn't last long tho it is levelling out a little.
Wolf,
I hope you dont mind me asking but last week you said that you would be 30%+ cash by Christmas whatever happens, I am wondering why this should be and your rationale.
Personally I have been around 30% cash for a while and I am hoping (but not expecting) for a possible Santa Rally on the back of buoyant US markets re Trumpmania and then expecting a sell off in January when I would be 100% cash.
Hi Helvellyn
I'll be holding a smaller percentage of my holdings in UK smallcaps next year. One, because I've been fortunate enough to have had a good 5 years since 2020 and after using a decent chunk of my ISA to buy a house I've built this back up again. I've tried this year expanding my holdings from the usual 15 or so up to 30-35 so I can keep a max £ per share but although it's worked out fine it's much harder work so I'd prefer to go back to 12-15. I want to be able to go to cash quickly.
Two, I don't like the growth outlook for the UK (or Europe) for the rest of the decade so happy to sit in some cash,bonds, ETFs for a while and wait to see how things pan out next year.
I was planning to have a more relaxing year in 2025 and see it potentially as the year when some of the excesses in the US during COVID finally wash out the system and the rapid rate rises start to show. Who knows tho I'm just guessing and probably completely wrong on this.
Will say if you look at any market cycle chart on sentiment theres signs in the US of early euphoria. Can last month's or even years tho, the sell signals I use on S&P charts are miles off triggering.
I'd agree with that, things look lined up for a strong 2025 in the US, whereas over here UK investors increasingly crowding into fewer and fewer opportunities. I think I'm just going to use these Labour Govt years to get really good at golf.
Wolf,
Thanks for that very concise answer.
FWIW I agree with most of what you say, I certainly dont mind having to go to 100% cash in any market uncertainty, it is a lot less stressful. As you say the outlook for the UK is poor under the current government and Europe probably worse unless a peace deal between Putin and Russia can be brokered. US markets are expensive but probably for good reason.
Thanks again.
Well this is all very cheerful. So many big and sudden lurches down in individual stocks. Tight stops essential, it seems only to take a few hours now for a stock to fall right through a stop line, support, MA or any other rule one might set. Funding Circle Holdings (LON:FCH) and Vertu Motors (LON:VTU) both took baths today for example.
What my chain of thought is I don't know but reviewing todays big fallers with no news, I thought I'd scan more broadly for often talked about companies with a share price currently below the low of Covid 2020. This is a bit random, a more structured search would find others, maybe lots:
J D Wetherspoon (LON:JDW) Burberry (LON:BRBY) Pennant International (LON:PEN) Personal group (LON:PGH) MJ GLEESON (LON:GLE) Restore (LON:RST) Team Internet (LON:TIG) Persimmon (LON:PSN) Capita (LON:CPI) Alliance Pharma (LON:APH) Creightons (LON:CRL) Trifast (LON:TRI)
What about Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) (LON:MAB1) over 12% down on no news. Tight stops will take you out of most UK small caps.
Wolfie,
Been in the US for about a month and there is a chance that I will have to move to the west coast for 12 months (if they agree on the offer I had on my greedy revised terms!).
Excuse my language but every stupid person I have known there they are just proven right on a daily basis about the stock market and the different types of investments. THIS IS A RED FLAG and the most bearish signal ever. We are not far from a Great Recession and a total collapse.
Very much worried about Trump’s cabinet so far. A bunch of controversial figures fighting for their own interests will make everything a mess. The US bond market thinks the same!
Not a bad idea to have a 75% + cash.
All the best
Its certainly a cabinet full of loons so far Yiannos I wonder where Majorie Taylor Green will fit in. I have no idea where it will all end up but he will no doubt push the deficit up even higher , economy is going great guns and pressure will be applied to continue to cut rates which won't end well.
Wise (LON:WISE) . Hat tip and thanks to Yiannos who highlighted the bull case a few weeks ago. Strong recovery.
Wise (LON:WISE)
Thanks but there is no way I got involved on this as I do not rate the company!
Down 15% last four years.
All the best
Costain (LON:COST) I hold. Arguably has broken out and retested its base. Approaching the volume gap where there is limited supply. Any rise from here could be swift up to 135p.
PayPoint (LON:PAY) crossing the volume gap at the moment. Progress may start to get harder from here on as supply may start to kick in around 850p. (I hold).
LBG Media (LON:LBG) another base looks to have been building, the longer the base the better the breakout? Good fundamentals imo, rising stock rank, sideways with volume (accumulation?), scaleable business with no debt, step change in profitability this year and expectations are forecast are to be met. I’ve taken an initial position myself.
Boohoo (LON:BOO) boys involved!
I’ll give this a miss.
All the best
I've been in that for a while now, it's one of Naked Trader's stocks
Westminster (LON:WSG) having to deny media reports they were looking at delisting. Probably do everyone a favour if they did, utterly hopeless bunch.
They seem to have share price and share count the wrong way round.
Is Calnex Solutions (LON:CLX) considered to be at a Stage 2? It's gently creeping up and the Telecommunications sector seems to be doing better at long last
Calnex Solutions (LON:CLX) moving averages starting to level out now and price above moving averages. Personally Id say Stage 1 still but could argue its a very early possible stage 2 now its made a slight higher high. Thanks I hadn't noticed this, one to watch Id say with results next week
Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) has results next Monday I think. The 6 weeks since Sept 30 AUM update market performance likely to be good, just depends on fund flows.
Up tad under 3% today Wolf on low volume
Just a couple of companies when filtering for potential stage 2s this week
WPP (LON:WPP) and Trainline (LON:TRN)
I dont follow miners but I saw a comment on X last week about a seller clearing in Jubilee Metals (LON:JLP) hence the rise. Might be worth doing some digging.
Thanks Helvelln. That's a perfect example of the importance of volume. With many downtrends you can afford to wait for news, even buying at the high for the day on Thursday you'd still be 20% up
I posted the ME International (LON:MEGP) chart about 3 weeks ago as it broke above 200p, it hasnt looked back since, currently 229p plus a 3.45p dividend in the bank. Stupidly I didnt buy any more on the breakout because it was already a large holding. Only posting this as a reminder to self that I should have more conviction in buying 'quality' stocks breaking through round number levels.
GLA
Hi Helvellyn. I bought in again on the breakout around the time you highlighted. Do you have a target? There is hardly any volume above ME International (LON:MEGP) which makes me wonder if it could run up rapidly?
You nicely highlight the plight of the trader: When you get it right you wish you'd bought more!
Another dilemma is when to hold or sell. I'm currently resisting taking the profit. What do you think?
I always like to try and run my winners and as my average buy is in the low £1's I can risk giving a bit back on ME International (LON:MEGP). If I didnt think that the upcoming FY trading update would be very positive (because of the washing machines) I would say that i cant see it going much over 250p, it is on a PE of 15-16 ATM so it needs to have had a good H2 2024.
They usually have a Notice of Trading Update before the actual numbers, which could be this week.
Hard luck to holders of Resolute Mining (LON:RSG)
Team Internet (LON:TIG) Not one I know much about but some big cuts to forecasts this morning by ZEUS
Aquis Exchange (LON:AQX) takeover at a very good 120% premium
Synectics (LON:SNX) rampy sounding AI news, hopefully see a jump up so I can sell
What price are you looking for with Synectics (LON:SNX) ?
I sold some at 310 last week, so around that price. Results will be good so could easily go higher if forecasts for 2025 are upgraded I reckon
I've went into trader mode since the budget tho so just wanting to make sure I lock in profits with things, rather than looking too far ahead or sitting through pullbacks
Morning Wolf,
Team Internet (LON:TIG) took a big hit to SP on Friday (-12%) ahead of todays results, it was only Tueday last week that I posted it's chart asking if the bottom was in with results coming up. It wasn't!
International Personal Finance (LON:IPF) downward trend might be arrested with better news out of Poland (full licence for compliant credit card offer which removes restriction on qunatity in issue). SP otherwise very close to falling through the 200 DMA.
Morning TEIN. Just had a look at the chart Team Internet (LON:TIG) That's leaky alright on Friday isn't it, volume up too.
International Personal Finance (LON:IPF) latest RNS release suggests they have been granted a full payment license in Poland
unless i've mis-read it lol
Just a heads up for those invested in gold in Mali. CEO and other exes from Resolute Mining (LON:RSG) have been held over this weekend by the Military.
Hi gmtrader,
Thanks I was unaware of this. Their peers Barrick Gold (TSE:ABX) et al have already suffered the same fate as we have seen... In theory the market price should already reflect this risk as per the efficient market hypothesis. However I suspect we will see a big price drop on Monday!! I was well aware of this risk but still continued to hold the shares anyway as it is a world class company.
It has only just been know in the last so many hours.
https://www.theafricareport.co...
I hope you don’t have too big a holding in the company as I expect a stampede to get out first thing Monday. If you keep an eye on the Australian listed part of RSG you will see Sunday night what to expect of the LSE on open Monday.
We saw the lowest risk and highest quality gold/silver companies sell off on Friday (Franco-Nevada (NYQ:FNV) , Sandstorm Gold (NYQ:SAND), etc ) ex Wheaton Precious Metals (NYQ:WPM) so yes I's say there is a good chance it drops very hard...
I'll be sound asleep during the Ausi trading hours but no doubt the trading action on the LSE listing will ruin my cornflakes on Monday morning.
Simon Thompson seems to be tipping my portfolio lately. Anpario (LON:ANP) today. If you could give MS International (LON:MSI) a bump next week that would be great :)
Ah, I wondered why that had suddenly shot up. It was on my list but topped up on MEGP instead. MSI is on my list though and it needs a boost shall we say - at the time I was debating whether to go for MSI or CHRT, looks like I made the wrong call!
Cohort (LON:CHRT) have had a great run over the last year - the latest leg up seems to have some decent volume behind it although this weekly view is possibly a bit deceiving since the latest upward move happened with normal volume on Friday. Will be interesting to see if it sticks next week.
Anpario (LON:ANP) chart getting more interesting, reverse head and shoulders pattern on the weekly perhaps. Filling that gap up to 467p would be lovely please
John Wood (LON:WG.) a complete mess of a company, but sell off looks a tad overdone
perhaps a small, short term trade?
that debt pile tho lol
John Wood (LON:WG.)
Maybe.
But it can be a zero as well. Serious accounting and contract issues raised by the auditors (going back years).
Also customers demanding compensation for unfinished business.
All the best
indeed!
a complete mess of a company, as i said
the board must wishing they had said yes to one of those numerous takeover bids @£2.30 a share...
John Wood (LON:WG.)
Acquisition would have fallen during the due diligence process.
All the best
Paul highlighted Rightmove (LON:RMV) on his substack page, performing a retest of the breakout. If it holds it will confirm a good entry point. I don’t currently hold but I am watching.
Rightmove (LON:RMV)
Different view.
This is the last thing I want to buy in this depressed UK stock market and in general economic environment.
All the best
Hi yiannos, I share your sentiments, i've been selling off all low conviction holdings since the budget and reinvesting mainly for income, this is an anti business government and I think one has to play it defensively for the time being, just my opinion...
Can't say I blame you Mr B. I'll be 30%+ cash myself by Christmas whatever happens.
Theres a lot of shares making new highs with negative RSI divergence just now. Doesn't mean they'll collapse in a heap anytime soon but worth watching.
Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS)
Yes, not sure what Mr Market will bring in the short term. My portfolio has risen quite nicely in the past 3 months but the FTSE All Share number of stocks above their 200 dma is still falling since the July high. This is my own graph which I update weekly (when I remember). For those that take note of market breadth you can see the All Share adv/dec line at Market in/out https://www.marketinout.com/ch...
Thank for the chart wattanut, that's interesting.
GYM (LON:GYM) making two year highs today, some small director buying too. Largely unaffected by the NI increases as their personal trainers pay them to work there. I know some people worry about the depreciation factor but I don't mind it at all, cash flows so strong and sticky, debt coming down, the share price moves very slowly but I think the trajectory is definitely north.
Mobico (LON:MCG) first flagged on here a while ago, that statement today removed a lot of doubt regarding current trading and given the election is now out of the way I think you might see an acceleration in the sale process, just a hunch...
Not long many individual UK stocks at the minute, UK doesn't have much momentum behind it but I think these two stocks have further to run....
I hope everyone is keeping well, I always enjoy reading the ideas here, a lot less clutter than the scvr thread........thank you.
Both nice looking charts Mr B. Glad Mobico is working out OK. Much less stress when the trend is up.
S&P almost 6000 now, owning a tracker really does helps smooth out the volatility of smallcap land.
I banked good profits in Eurocell and sliced a little Personal group. Apart from that very quiet, been in position for a couple of weeks now waiting for a rally. Just hold out my bucket and let the money fall in, next 2 months :) What could possibly go wrong.
Thanks for all the ideas everyone, this is a great thread that I lurk in!
Wolf - any particular reason for disposing of ECEL? I hold with ALU as well.
I hold ALU as well. ECEL just looked a little stretched, like a selloff might happen. Thought sentiment around housebuilding etc might take a hit with interest rate cuts slower than expected before the budget. Forecasts haven't improved yet either so decided to sell ECEL and keep ALU which has seen EPS increases.
Never easy to know when to sell tho.
Thanks for your thoughts :)
For what it's worth I also sold my ECEL after the little spike into the mid 1.80s, I'm not sold on the house building recovery happening anytime soon for numerous reasons so maybe the price had got a little ahead of itself, big fan of the management though, definitely one of the better stocks in the sector.
Crispr Therapeutics AG (NMQ:CRSP) has just broken out following its trading update this week. After long being considered blue sky technology it now FDA approved (see the spike to 90usd last year) and has now started to to successfully treat patients. This update shows the first revenue has been achieved. At the moment Crispr are utilising the technology to successfully treat Beta Thalesemia and Sickle Cell Disease and upscaling with over 40 treatment centres. However, they have now also turned their attention to cancer and other more prevalent conditions which give huge growth potential. A nice bowl forming longer term too.
3 month:
1year:
Crispr Therapeutics AG (NMQ:CRSP) has panned out perfectly. The break past the 50day on good volumes and beyond resistance at 50usd has seen it rocket up. Nice long and shorter term bowl formed too. Hopefully just the start of a bigger move (I hold)
Well done Ben, nice move.
Keller (LON:KLR) has a trading update Thursday. Its poised
Cheers Wolf. Keller (LON:KLR) is looking primed to make a move. Nice move up today too.
Team Internet (LON:TIG) perhaps starting to bottom out? Next results on Monday. The SP climb followed on from dual listing the US market:
I'll big myself up with this one. This is perfect, just what I'm looking for on a trade with volume being the fuel. Personal group (LON:PGH)
Haha, I was just about to post this one myself, here’s the weekly chart Id prepared. I hold and added at the close. Good balance sheet, net cash. A return to £3 would be nice.
How does that work with volume? Huge volume on October 2nd but the stock didn't move until October 8th and volume is nothing special since? Trying to learn here...I do hold Personal group (LON:PGH) , although came at it via a different route.
PS Personal group (LON:PGH) was also highlighted in a recent Alpha Report from Simon Thompson of Investor's Chronicle
I'm glad someone enjoyed the Budget. Of all folks, Supreme (LON:SUP).
This thread is so old I cant edit it now so just have to put up with the title
Heres some companies passing a Minervini type filter. Was around 90 a couple of months ago but its down to the strongest now
Main Market
AIM
Title, right, thought you were talking about starting over in January. That would be the opportunity. On the other hand this title will be good again in six months!
Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) right up there in your table. Results out in the morning.
Hi Wolf,
Would really really like to know how you find the stocks and filter them, if it's not too much of a proprietary process. Do you use Sharepad for it? I don't have it yet, only Stocko.
Yes filtered with sharepad, tho you can filter on stocko fine. I just prefer sharepad.
With low share count small caps any seller can hang around for an age, market makers just drift the price down until they find some buyers. Personal Gp has 30m shares I think, and there appeared to be a seller there for weeks if not months.
Can usually tell a seller in the background by level 2, but even trades will sometimes show it. Buys will be say 161.8p, then next buy 161.7, then 161.65 and so on. Once an overhang is cleared this stops usually. It did get a boost from Simon Thompson and Robbie burns around the same time I think.
Same sort of thing here at GlobalData (LON:DATA) drifting down until a volume spike then up 20% in 8 days. Share buyback helped. When to sell is a different question tho.
There were lots of these last year around October. MPAC (LON:MPAC) Big volume spike, price didn't do much for 2 or 3 months then doubled in 7 weeks. There was an inline trading update 11th Jan.
When to sell is a different question tho....
Do you rarely see the same pattern in reverse please WOSS ? Are buyers much more patient sitting on the bid and won't chase a stock up to get long ? Whereas once they've decided to cut, they're keener to get out ASAP?
I'd say when traders move in on a volume spike they're twitchy and likely to bail out quickly on any weakness, so it can take a few days before any move gathers momentum. Once it starts moving then momentum and FOMO kick in. Unless it's a longer term hold I'll be looking to sell into strength, often Ill sell and it keeps moving up but with these illiquid shares it's much better on the whole to sell into strength rather than not being able to get a quote when everyone else is bailing out too. I don't really care so much about volume when selling, more interested in locking in a profit. PGH for instance I'd be happy to take around 220 if it got there.
2022 bear market was hopeless for this method as one seller would be replaced by another. Nov/Dec last year was great...lots of forced sellers being cleared by other institutions. Things were popping all over the place so I made 20-25% in Nov/Dec. Not a great market for it just now either, people are too wary to chase prices. Sentiment is fickle tho, so that could change.
This was another I bought last year based only on volume. Motorpoint (LON:MOTR) Forecasts were terrible. Actually tried a trade in July also which failed but it worked great in December. Always the risk of a profit warning when forecasts are still falling tho so its on the riskier side.
Sad news that Paul has gone but SCVR did need broadening IMO. This thread is the one of greatest interest to me at the moment so I hope everyone will keep posting ideas & charts.
I’m getting a strong feeling/impression from my portfolios performance and watchlists that there is money coming back into the market.
Stocks that were rising are hitting new highs PayPoint (LON:PAY) ME International , Costain (LON:COST) (LON:MEGP) others have pulled back and bounced off resistance.. Brickability (LON:BRCK) Gulf Marine Services (LON:GMS) Smiths News (LON:SNWS) . TP Icap (LON:TCAP) Admittedly accompanied by news flow but if sellers were in then we’d see profit taking.
Might all change tomorrow but I’m quietly hopeful that we’ll get a strong Nov/Dec.
Don't resign Wolf.
Other very valuable columns are available but none have had a more positive impact for my Portfolio than this one.
Thanks as always.
I'll keep doing this until the end of the year, and its not my thread anyway, anyone can use it. Might change the title tho, any suggestions?
As Revs says beyond the media doom theres plenty of shares rising so we could be in for a decent 2 months, so on we go.
Bit of volume coming into Zotefoams (LON:ZTF) this afternoon.
That's very modest, there are 1,172 comments that wouldn't have been made were it not for you writing the original post. That said, starting over for next year would be up to you, it doesn't want to be a burden. Someone else could, but you have the necessary kudos. Alternatively we could just start posting charts, volumes and cooments in the new DSMR instead, but I think contributors like the focus here.
I think the value in the thread is in it's focus on charts so a simple new title that does what it says on the tin (to discourage divergence) would encompass that. One could be dull, or more lively, I'm sure there are readers here who can come up with something much better, but to kick off here's a few names:
Stock Chart Analysis
The Chart Never Lies
The Dark Art of Stage Analysis
Or something more subtle like:
Moving Averages
Support and Resistance
Mind the Gap
Think I'll go get a drink.
Zotefoams (LON:ZTF) should have a floor under the price as anyone invested simply as a trade to make a quick buck on Rezorce is now out. I think there has also been a big seller recently as regular sell trades in 10k share chunks have been going through for weeks. Whoever that was could put a spanner in the works but other than that it looks a nice entry point. Sadly my average is about 15% North of where the SP is today.
Your going know where Wolf christ if you hand your resi in it would be like Man U losing Giggs and Beckham on the same day.
Maybe Charting Price Momentum.
Headlam (LON:HEAD) Are going up on volume, but who really wants to be in carpets and back a poor management team? Still, could be a trade...
Pressure Technologies (LON:PRES) I'm talking my own book as I own a decent amount BUT it is pushing through all the moving averages and Richard Staveley after not buying shares for years has topped up twice in the last fortnight and still on the bid now. I think the reason is in the budget, Reeves committed £2bn expenditure to hydrogen and Pressure Tech are very likely big beneficiaries of this as they have the tech and capability to build the required cylinders.
His timing is normally pretty good so keep your eyes peeled for some decent contract wins.
Smiths News (LON:SNWS) long term chart showing repeated H&S patterns with successful retests. Latest news could spur SP onto 71p and then higher if the charts are to be believed. May take some time to get there. I hold.
Risk Off time.
For watchers of retail, apologies if you've already seen this Sky article. Nothing us clever clogs don't already know but the combination of minimum wage increase x NI x supply chain observation is useful (if depressing). On top of all that there's the spector of the equal (higher) shopworkers pay claim for doing a different job to warehouse workers (Next and various supermarkets).
I'm watching for the big announcements this week, especially M&S I'd suggest because it has wonderful momentum and I want to learn their reaction.
https://news.sky.com/story/ret...
Tiddler DSW Capital (LON:DSW) chart perking up. 'transformational acquisition' today, paid by cash+ shares. Broker expects this to double forecast profits. Might be worth a look even with the hideous spread.
James Dow, Chief Executive Officer of DSW Capital, said:"This is a game changing acquisition, and we are delighted to announce it to our stakeholders. Not only is it immediately and significantly earnings-enhancing, but it also diversifies our revenues, building resilience, and provides an opportunity to expand into new professional markets. Working with DR's inspirational management team, we believe we can accelerate the growth of the business using the strength of the Dow Schofield Watts brand, and resources and, over time, build a substantial platform of diversified, niche legal services." This is truly a meeting of minds. We are committed to supporting Daphne, Nils, and the DR team in the holistic growth and development of the business and welcome everyone warmly to Dow Schofield Watts."
There was a discussion a while back on gaps and gap-filling. Mr BO commented that he only knew from experience the time to buy was when the gap had been filled (I think...) but didn't know the rationale behind this.
Cavendish Financial (LON:CAV) gapped up on 4th April and the gap was filled at the end of October. The share price has risen since and I would say this is also now supported on a fundamental basis too - lots of expensive advice required post-budget by companies and HNW individuals as well as the possibility of IPOs (there was a comment on this in today's SCVR by Paul Hill).
Re gap fills, does anyone know whether the 'fill' applies to the whole gap between the wick extremities or between the solid bodies
My username has the most unfortunate initials
Possible worth keeping an eye on PROCOOK (LON:PROC) as a recovery play. Not my favourite sector, retail, but the company is expanding, while removing itself from high costs of Amazon. Probably one of the biggest cost is freight cost, which has been falling. The other concern would be employee wages, but the company is not a huge employer, employing approx. 680 people.
The chart looks promising, having recently moved above the 50 and 200 MA with a golden cross formed. The sp is not far off resistance and recent highs, so if it can break above the resistance then next real resistance will be about 49p.
What's the funky trend bands GM?
That is just PRT bands. It was a default setting added that I couldn't be bothered to remove.
There was a positive write-up on PROCOOK (LON:PROC) in the AJ Bell shares magazine this week. I printed it out, read it, thought it seemed very interesting, then binned it because of the employer NI and minimum wage implications. Might look at it again.
What did the AJ Bell report say. Unable to see it despite using a subsidiary platform of theirs.
Herewith
Thanks for posting that.
Well there goes PROCOOK (LON:PROC) with the breakout today.
Bought back into Synectics (LON:SNX) and Journeo (LON:JNEO) on budget day
Synectics (LON:SNX) Pullback to 50 day ma, 10x 2025eps. Decent contract win today, seems to have good visibility into 2025 which I like. From the price moves I'd say someone is maybe selling, possibly family of the previous CEO who recently sadly died.
Some talk of potential takeover interest in Burberry (LON:BRBY) . Don't have any myself but spotted the change in trend a couple of months ago.
Zotefoams (LON:ZTF) got this one wrong. Thought it unlikely it would fill the gap before the trading update. It's come right down into the gap last week. Singers looks to have kept forecasts unchanged, looks weak but cheap. Market doesn't like something.
Kenmare Resources (LON:KMR) base building this year. Higher lows and moving averages levelling out on the weekly chart. Could do with some volume and a higher high now.
Kenmare Resources (LON:KMR) looks like it is starting to break upwards. Touching 350p. One for the chartists to comment on if you don't mind?
Frp Advisory (LON:FRP) also had a decent move up this week before and after budget. It got a bit over excited budget day but then so did Rachel.... The pro business budget should provide a stream of new opportunities for the next 18 months. Will be interested to see what mitigating measures appear over the next few weeks.
Kenmare is a fascinating company. It is a natural resources, extraction company, but dredges rather than mines. Website is well worth a look if you are into what companies do, not just if they can make you money.
More importantly for investors it is cheap on a current P/E basis, and very cheap on a tangible book to price basis. The drag on the price at present is that there is a huge investment programme being undertaken, that is sucking up money. Once this stops in a couple of years, they should have huge free cashflow and be very profitable. From memory the mine life is 30 years plus and whilst the equipment does need repair and maintance, this should not be a significant drag on profits.
Current risks include the usual ones associated with extraction, being effectively a single site, and any risk associated with Africa. Also they are currently discussing an extension to the operating agreement with the Mozambique government, which apparently can be renewed on the same terms, but the negotiations are currently ongoing. There is an Irish withholding tax on dividends, which I have not worked out how to reclaim, albeit this is possible apparently.
This is a small holding for me at present, but am looking to gradually increase.
Thanks David. Yes I'm familiar with their website and the scale of investment over the next couple of years. Is there some nervousness over the licence due for extension/renewal by end of this year? With the scale of the resource you'd think it would be marked significantly higher, as in the past. Sector China dependent for primary demand I believe.
Used to help another rutile producer do their AR. Remember Sierra Rutile? Unfortunately they got taken over by one of the big boys.
Hi Sevencc
I have no special knowledge of the industry or the company, just what I have gleaned from their website and presentations on Investor Meet Company.
If I post positively about a company, particularly if I have shares in it, I like to make sure that I also post any negatives I am aware of or potential problems. Partly because I always need to keep the bear case in mind for successful investing, and partly it seems dishonest to only talk about bull points when I own shares.
With regard to the renegotiations, the company mentioned on their last IMC meeting this had a deadline of the end of the year, that it could renewed, by the letter of the contract, on the same terms, but that they expected they might have make some concessions to keep good relations. I am happy to take them at their word, but always like to consider what might happen. On the surface, there should not be a problem, but if there is then it could be very bad.
I had thought that the successful renegotiation might be a catalyst for a rerating, but that seems to be happening earlier than I thought.
David