JohnsInvestmentChronicle Weekend Roundup, (week ending 31st January 2014) Markets struggle!

Saturday, Jul 06 2013 by
7

Week ending 5th July 2013 (Subsequent weeks appear in comments below)

A good week for equity markets with the FTSE All Share (Total Return) Index returning 2.7%.
It is good to see S&P 500 Index close last night above the 50 day moving average after threatening to do so for the last week or so; the trend looks pretty good. Meanwhile, in another bullish sign, small companies in the US, as represented by the S&P 600 Index, closed at new highs last night.
In the UK the FTSE All Share and FTSE 100 are just shy of the 50 day moving average

I made the following changes to my portfolio over the last week.

On Tuesday I increased my holding in (£AIE) Anite to 4.0% following results. The shares are valued at about 14.5x April 2014 earnings for 16% growth which looks attractive to me especially as I would expect consensus forecasts to rise following the results.

On Tuesday I bought back into (£GAH) Gable Holdings following its results on the previous Friday which involved a restatement of prior year results. I felt that after a near 40% fall in the share price and with forecasts for the coming years putting the shares on a PE ratio of 4.7x 2013 for a doubling in earnings and 3.4x December 2014 for a further 36% growth, it was worth dipping my toes back in.

On Thursday I bought a new holding in (£FSC) F&C US Smaller Companies Trust in order to catch the performance of US Smaller Companies which have clearly "broken out" relative to larger cap. See chart (Courtesy of Redburn partners)

 

 


The JIC portfolio had a poor week relative, up only 0.8%. I have observed over the last month that it seems to be exhibiting "defensive" characteristics, in that it is holding up well in falling markets but struggling to keep up on good days. Needs some thought!


Three of my holdings are down more than 10% since purchase; (£AGTA) Agriterra, (£POL) Polo and (£FENR) Fenner. Am I doing a good impression of an ostrich?

www.JohnsInvestmentChronicle.com


Disclaimer:  

"The investments and any other products mentioned in the johnsinvestmentchronicle website should not in any way be considered advice to buy or sell anything. Any information on the website is given in general terms and does not constitute personal advice to any individual. Readers are responsible for developing and applying their own strategies based on their personal circumstances and furthermore readers should obtain independent financial advice from an FSA regulated intermediary before investing money. Information or views in older blogs may become outdated and should not be relied upon unless confirmed by recent comment." "johnsinvestmentchronicle takes every care to ensure that the factual information on its website is accurate but cannot guarantee this."


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Fusionex International Plc is an information technology software company specializing in Analytics, Big Data and the Internet of Things (IoT). The Company operates through two business segments: Products and Services. Its products include Analytics, Mobility, Loyalty, Cloud and Core Systems. Its products and solutions include Corporate Performance Management, Customer Relationship Management, Enterprise Resource Planning, Intelligent Capturing System, Core Banking System, Enterprise Insurance System, Loan Management System, Document Management System, Loyalty Management System, Self Service Kiosk System, Aviation Management System, Geographical Information System, e-Commerce/Internet Booking Engine and Property Management System. It offers its solutions to agriculture, banking, energy and utilities, leisure and gaming, insurance, logistics and transportation, manufacturing, media and market research, public sector, retail, telecommunications, and travel and hospitality industries. more »

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IGas Energy plc is a United Kingdom-based company engaged in producing oil and gas onshore. The Company is engaged in exploring for, appraising, developing and producing oil and gas. The Company operates through two segments: UK/Europe and Rest of the World. It is an onshore hydrocarbon producer, delivering natural gas and crude oil to the energy market. The Company develops and produces gas and oil resources and reserves at onshore locations in the North West of England, the East Midlands, the Weald Basin in Southern England and the northern coastal area of the Inner Moray Firth in Scotland. It produces approximately 2,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day from over 100 sites across the country. The Company's subsidiaries include Dart Energy Limited, Island Gas Limited, Island Gas Operations Limited, IGas Energy (Caithness) Limited, IGas Exploration UK Limited, Star Energy Group Limited, Star Energy Limited, Star Energy Weald Basin Limited and Star Energy Oil and Gas Limited. more »

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Laird PLC is engaged in providing engineering solutions that protect electronics from electromagnetic interference and heat, and enable connectivity in mission-critical wireless applications. The Company operates through two segments: Performance Materials and Wireless Systems. The Performance Materials segment designs a range of electro-magnetic interference shielding materials, thermal management solutions, and signal integrity products to a range of electronic devices and prototypes. The Wireless Systems segment designs and supplies a range of wireless antennae, and machine-to-machine wireless modules for a number of markets, including the infrastructure and automotive markets. It also focuses on industrial and commercial antennae, commercial wireless connectivity (including Bluetooth and wireless fidelity (Wi-Fi) radios) and industrial control systems with customers, including healthcare manufacturers, developers of high-density infrastructure, railway and mining companies. more »

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  Is LON:FXI fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


46 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

johnrosier 26th Oct '13 27 of 46

Saturday 26th October 2013


Markets carry on moving up with the S&P 500 Index closing for the second week in a row at an all-time high. In the UK the FTSE All Share Index appreciated by 1.4%, also closing at a new all-time high. The JIC portfolio had a good week, up 2.4%, so that month to date it is up 5.1% v FTSE All Share return of 4.2%. Since inception in January last year JIC is up 69.3%.


French Connection (LON:FCCN) closed the week on a strong note, up 14.5% on Friday so that for the week as a whole it was up 25.0%. There was pretty heavy volume on Friday, the highest since January, and as you can see from the chart above the shares have broken through the 34p level which has acted as a ceiling this year. Is someone taking a view that the new autumn/winter range is revitalising sales? One to watch! Agriterra (LON:AGTA) had a strong week, up 18% and Laird responded well to Wednesday’s Q3 trading statement, rising 10.3%. Adept Telecom (LON:ADT) appears in the weekend roundup for the third week in a row after an 8.7% rise and Lamprell (LON:LAM) introduced to the portfolio last Friday, had a good week, up 6.7%. IGas Energy (LON:IGAS) rose 5.7% and Regenersis (LON:RGS), 5.0%. The only stock to fall more than 5% was Globo (LON:GBO), which after a stellar rise so far this year fell 11.2%. It was not helped by the news that "Evil Kneivel" had taken out a short position in the stock. Some commentators are worried about the lack of cash flow at Globo and some of its accounting practices. I read a comprehensive note addressing these issues on Friday and for the time being am going to stick with it, although mindful of my trailing stop loss on the stock.


I reduced my holding in Berkeley Group (LON:BKG) by a third following a 20% move up during October and bought a new holding in Anglo Pacific (LON:APF) where Julian Treger has been appointed Chief Executive; I expect him to improve returns from the mining investment company’s royalty portfolio.

Little in this week’s investment publications that concern JIC holdings; Anglo Pacific gets a positive write up in Shares Magazine and in the same publication Thorntons (LON:THT) is mentioned as a company that is benefiting from the strategy of rebalancing the firm’s sales towards it fast moving consumer goods division and away from underperforming retail stores.

Next week looks like a quiet week for news for the JIC portfolio and indeed the market as a whole.

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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lightningtiger 27th Oct '13 28 of 46

Pleased with my first stock purchase with ADT using Stockopedia. From the show at Olympia,I noticed from Shares Magazine Thorntons and Ocado (OCDO) have a good mention & both look good to me.From page 52 please note the sectors,top5...Leisure, Forestry, Automobiles, ,Fixed line Telecom, Mobile Telecom. I think we need to be fishing in the "right pond". Compare it to the Oil stocks!
Also in the supplement is stockbroker services & all of them make a charge to deal.
Please note, with PLUS 500, the charge is free, check it out. I am not sure whether it covers the Aim market or not, but what huge scope globally, for this company.It doubled it's turnover (approximately last year) & if that sort of multiplication, each year for a few years, it could be really good.I reacon. Another Tech stock that looks good is APC @ about 50p. Could be another beach holiday!

I have now got my own screen filter set up,with the help of someone from the Stockopedia stand, thanks for that. A simple matter,if you know how to do it. Also good to meet Paul and put a name to the face. I will have another look round the site to find another stock that perhaps fits my new screen.

Cheers from Lightningtiger

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johnrosier 2nd Nov '13 29 of 46
1

Saturday 2nd November 2013


After a strong run during November markets struggled to make progress last week with various commentators suggesting a correction in the market was overdue. The FTSE All Share (TR) Index gained just 0.1% on the week. The JIC Portfolio had a disappointing week falling by 1.1%.


Vislink, up 4.3% was the best performing stock in the portfolio! Adept Telecom appears in this roundup for the fourth week in succession but this time as a faller. It gave up 10% after its interim figures which were issued on Tuesday. I thought the results were okay but I guess it is quite a thinly traded stock which had had a strong run into the results. I took the opportunity to add to my holding on Thursday as to me the stick looks super value on 11.3x March 2014 consensus earnings and with very strong free cash flow.


If I ever get a dog I am going to call it Agriterra! It fell 6% during the week and continues to be my worst performing holding. Thankfully it is only 1.4% of the total portfolio.


During the week I sold the holding in Globo as the stock fell back to my trailing stop loss. I more than doubled my money in the position and in the short term am happy to be out of a stock which is receiving too much attention on the bulletin boards. I also topped up my holding in Synectics.


Not much new in the weekend investment publications concerning JIC holdings. In the Investors Chronicle Vislink is re-affirmed as a buy in its Tips column.


Next week looks like another quiet week from the JIC point of view with just October passenger stats from easyJet due on Wednesday. Both Laird (4.1p) and Regenersis (1.83p) go ex-dividend on Wednesday.

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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Sully8786 2nd Nov '13 30 of 46

Hi John,

I thought about adding to Adept Telecom (LON:ADT) but decided to go with MDM Engineering (LON:MDM) instead following a slightly more reassuring update....looks interesting with bags of cash on the balance sheets but there are plenty of risks given the sector in which it plays.

easyJet (LON:EZJ) will be interesting during November with the results out. I guess the market will be asking whether it can continue to grow.....

Best,

Sully.

Company: Dave Sullivan - Talking Stocks
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lightningtiger 3rd Nov '13 31 of 46

Globo excitement, dropped way past the stop loss.It was due for a correction in my books. 1 overvalued, & 2 dodgy accounts, in my opinion. I decided it was basically a sound company with a great track record. Against my usual sell on the stop loss and get out, I did not sell. In spite of -30% or so drop, my overall portfolio held up with a gain on that day, which I was pleased with. My gut feeling was, it should come back, so I doubled my holdings in it, when the director bought some more shares in the company. Time will tell
The right thing to do really is immediately sell on the stop loss & take the profit.
At the low point the shares were about 52.75p & on 1st Nov recovered some to 66.5p.(TEP £15.48)

TEP finished the month at £15.33. A company where the director has never sold any of his shares in his company, but always buying more.
I have spent a good deal of time sorting out a hit list of good stocks to buy with Stockopedia and will continue to improve my portfolio where I can.
I was a bit disappointed with my second purchased stock PLUS500, with stockopedia in that ordinary shares can not be traded free, only if you buy short or long. Is this what is meant by spread betting & does it cost you to trade? It is free with PLUS500,from what I can gather.

However with around 3trillion trades a day happening, they should pick up substantial business in my book as time goes forward.The dealing is free.They make their money on the difference of the buying & selling price. 

Sully ,same sector please see MBH,the stock one above MDM in that sector, looks good to me.
Cheers from Lightningtiger

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johnrosier 10th Nov '13 32 of 46
1

Sunday 10th November 2013

Another nervous week for markets with the FTSE All Share Index falling -0.4%. The JIC portfolio also fell 0.4%! Year-to-date the JIC is up 37.5% v +19.1% for the FTSE All Share.


The only stock to rise more than 5% was Synectics, +6.2% which I had added to the previous week. easyJet fell 5.5% after Ryanair issued its second profit warning, Polo Resources was down 5.5% and Adept Telecom fell for the second week running, by 5.9%.


In what was quite a busy week for the portfolio I raised the cash level towards 5% by halving the holding in easyJet to 2%. It is right at a support level at 1200p which I hope will hold. If it succumbs to fears raised by Ryanair about the outlook for pricing in the European markets over the autumn/winter and falls further I will sell the remainder. I also reduced Melrose and WH Smith to 2% each of the portfolio following very strong runs. Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon was reduced to 4%. Following a presentation from the operational management of Agriterra I added to the holding taking it up to 2%. Clearly it has its risks given that it is an agricultural business based in Mozambique and Sierra Leone but I think the 30% discount to net asset value reflects this to a great extent. I was particularly enthused by the developing cocoa operations in Sierra Leone given the current and projected supply/demand imbalance.


In a first for the JIC portfolio I invested 2% of the portfolio in some PUT covered warrants on the FTSE 100. They are geared about 13x; if the FTSE 100 falls 5% I would expect the warrants to rise by about 65%. Remember gearing works both ways so if the market pushes on up the warrants will fall in value. They also have an expiry date, March 21st 2014, so as we get closer to that date any “time Value” built into the warrants price will dissipate. So risky, in that I could lose all of my 2% investment but that is the cost I am prepared to risk, to introduce some insurance into the portfolio against a short term market pull back.


In this week’s MoneyWeek WH Smith is rated a “buy for dividend growth” and in the Investors Chronicle, Globo, which I sold the week before last, is rated a Buy although albeit speculative and high risk. I have not completely dismissed getting back into Globo but for now am happy to watch from the side lines. Shares Magazine reckons the “rally in Thorntons has further to run” and rates IGAS Energy and Berkeley Group as Buys.

The only event I can see on my diary concerning JIC is a trading statement from WH Smith on Thursday.

Happy Investing!

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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lightningtiger 10th Nov '13 33 of 46
5

That is satisfying news with Globo, another positive note. I found from another software package that Globo was valued at around 103p before I read this .The same site comes up with a Buy for EXI energy@253p & valued @ 323p stop loss set @ 205p. Interesting to see how IGAS comes out. Thorntons, which I bought last week is also coming up as a Buy.
Cheers from Lightningtiger

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Sully8786 14th Nov '13 34 of 46

Looks like Adept Telecom (LON:ADT) will be making it into the commentry for another week at this rate. I wonder how much is down to the director sales ?? I'll be keeping a close eye with a view to topping up as I quite like this one.

I too am about 8% in cash juat in case.

Best,

Sully.

Company: Dave Sullivan - Talking Stocks
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johnrosier 17th Nov '13 35 of 46
1

Sunday 17th November 2013

The market continues to struggle with the FTSE All Share Index falling 0.1% during the week. The JIC portfolio had a better week rising 0.5% and is now up 37.9% year to date v 18.9% for the Index.


The major contributor to JIC’s good week was Regenersis which rose 19.4%, helped by a visit to its Glenrothries site and by its broker, Panmure Gordon raising its price target for the stock to 420p compared to the current 317p. Vislink gave up a little ground during the week, falling 5.9%.


During the week I reduced Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust to 2% and increased Third Point Offshore to 7%, ahead of it going ex-dividend later this month. The yield is attractive at 5.5% and hopefully the share price discount to assets will narrow in the coming weeks.


In a MoneyWeek article on Britain’s shale gas revolution, Igas Energy is include in a list of six stocks to buy now. In Shares Magazine there is a review of the investors evening I attended the week before last at which Agriterra presented and which I subsequently wrote up and added to my holding.


Next week sees Final figures from easyJet on Tuesday which I am sure will be good. The market will be more interested in any outlook statement concerning pricing and volumes in the current Autumn/Winter season. I think there is also a trading statement due from Melrose Industries on the same day.


Happy Investing!

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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johnrosier 23rd Nov '13 36 of 46
2

Saturday 23rd November 2013


Another lacklustre week from the UK market with the FTSE All Share Index falling by 0.2%. The JIC Portfolio fared well, up 0.9%. Month to date JIC is now up 0.5% compared to a 0.7% fall in the All Share.


The main contributors to performance were easyJet, +11.1%, following excellent figures for the year ending 30th September 2013 and the announcement of a special dividend of 44.1p on top of the 33.5p ordinary dividend. Thorntons resumed its upward path, rising 10.9%, Synectics was strong, +7.6% and Berkeley Group was up 7.2%. The only holding to fall more than 5% was Lamprell, -5.2% which has been friendless since its 14th November trading statement which I thought read okay. Hopefully it will bounce from here!


I increased Igas Energy to 3.0% of the portfolio on Monday, increased my exposure to Japan, through the acquisition of a new holding, Baillie Gifford Japan Trust on Wednesday. On Friday I bought an initial 1% holding in Crawshaw Group following a meeting with the non-executive chairman, Richard Rose, earlier in the week.


Igas energy is one of 22 stocks described as game changers with ten-bagger potential, in this week’s Investors Chronicle. Velocys which I used to hold in the JIC Portfolio was also included in the list. In both MoneyWeek and the Investors Chronicle, easyJet is rated a hold and in a full page article in Shares Magazine entitled “Thorntons looks a treat”, it is rated a buy.


I can’t see any news scheduled for any of the JIC holdings next week but Anglo Pacific and St.Ives both go ex-dividend on Wednesday, 4.45p and 4.5p respectively. On Wednesday I am attending presentations by the management of the Biotech Growth Trust and Worldwide Healthcare Trust and on Friday I am meeting the Executive Chairman of Regenersis, all of which I will report on.


Good luck and happy investing!

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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johnrosier 30th Nov '13 37 of 46
2

Saturday 30th November 2013


The FTSE All Share Index fell by 0.2% for the second week in a row leaving it down 0.7% for November. The JIC portfolio had a good week rising by 1.5% so that for November as a whole it was up 2.0%. Year to date the portfolio is up 41.2% compared to 18.6% for the Index.


Regenersis, (who I saw at lunch yesterday and will write up early next week), continued its meteoric rise; it was up 19%. Other winners were Adept Telecom +10.6%, Crawshaws +10.2% Thorntons +6.8% and Worldwide Healthcare Trust +6.2%. The stragglers were my two companies exposed to natural resources, Anglo Pacific -7.0% and Polo Resources –5.6%, (Anglo did go ex a 4.45p dividend on Wednesday and at the current price has a prospective yield of 5.0 %!). Amino Technology also fell by 6.0% following a rather dull trading statement on Monday.


It was quite a busy week; On Tuesday I sold all the WH Smith for a handsome profit and bought a new holding in Plastics Capital which announces interim figures this Tuesday. On Thursday I sold all of the Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust, realising a small loss and gave the holding in Synectics a “haircut” after a strong run. I added to my holding in Biotech Growth Trust following a presentation by the management on Wednesday and I added to my holding in Adept Telecom. On Friday I took advantage of the early 10% fall in the Vislink share price on the back of its announcement that it was seeking to move from the main market to AIM. I thought the reaction was overdone and increased my holding. Indeed at the Regenersis meeting yesterday the Chairman said that “AIM was fabulous for where we are at the moment”. It gives management more flexibility to make acquisitions and so if you trust and back the management I don’t think it should be a concern.


Shares Magazine says that a “fresh re-rating at Amino Technologies is still possible” and describes Agriterra as a “meaty investment case”. It says that “Agriterra is not without risks but the long-term investment case for agriculture is compelling and risk-tolerant investors might like to take a stake at 2.4p”.


Next week sees interim results from Plastics Capital on Tuesday, easyJet November traffic stats and Dolphin Capital trading update on Thursday and Berkeley Group interims on Friday. On Wednesday Worldwide Healthcare Investment Trust goes ex-dividend 7.0p per share.


Happy Investing!

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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johnrosier 7th Dec '13 38 of 46
1

Saturday 7th December 2013


A poor start to December for the FTSE All Share Index with it returning -1.3%. The JIC portfolio on the other hand had a better week, falling just 0.1%. Year-to-date the returns are +17.1% and +40.9% respectively.


The best performers were; Thorntons (LON:THT) +8.0%, (on top of the +6.8% in the preceding week), Berkeley Group (LON:BKG) +7.8% following excellent interim figures, Crawshaw (LON:CRAW) +7.6% and Plastics Capital (LON:PLA) +6.6%, again after good half year figures on Monday. Agriterra (LON:AGTA) had a pretty awful week, falling 16% and giving up much of the hard earned gains of the last month or so. A recurrence of disturbances in Mozambique leading to 10 deaths has not helped. Regenersis gave up 7.4%, which I guess was a bit of profit taking after the recent strong gains.


On Tuesday I met the management of Plastics Capital following interim results from the Company on Monday. I wrote the meeting up yesterday and am a happy holder given the sales growth achieved in the first half, the strong cash flow and an encouraging outlook.


In the weekly investment magazines, Fusionex International (LON:FXI) is mentioned in Shares Magazine as “readying itself for a pre-Christmas launch of its Giant big data suite which could push the shares beyond 313p”, Amino Technologies (LON:AMO) is one of the six stocks reckoned to be “good value picks with recovery potential” in it cover story. Finally Agriterra gets a mention in its sector report on food producers; it is described as “a long-term lock-away” with it speculating that “February’s half year statement might contain a positive update”. The Investors Chronicle describes IGas Energy (LON:IGAS) Energy as a “speculative buy”!


I made no changes to the portfolio during the week.


Next week I am not expecting any announcements from any of the JIC holdings. On Wednesday Plastics Capital goes ex dividend 1p per share.


Happy Investing!

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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johnrosier 14th Dec '13 39 of 46
2

Saturday 14th December 2013

Another lacklustre week for markets with the FTSE All Share Index falling by 1.5%. The JIC portfolio fell 1.4%. The All Share has returned -2.8% and year-to-date +15.3%. For the JIC portfolio the returns are -1.5% and +39.0% respectively.

Fusionex International (LON:FXI) was up 13.1% following the launch on Wednesday of its GIANT big data software suite and Fox Marble Holdings (LON:FOX) returned 6.9% since I bought the holding Tuesday. The main contributors to the 1.4% fall in JIC during the week was the poor returns from two of the largest holdings in the portfolio; Regenersis (LON:RGS) fell 7.2%, I think, on a bit of profit taking following a period of very strong performance, and Vislink (LON:VLK), -8.4%. Vislink has reacted poorly to the news that it intends to move from the main market to AIM. The EGM is being held this Tuesday. I must admit to being a little surprised at the extent of the weakness, as for a company of this size, £46.4m market capitalisation, with a strategy that includes making enhancing acquisitions, the AIM market is the obvious place for it to be listed. Hopefully we will see a strong bounce back soon.


During the week I introduced a new holding to the portfolio, Fox Marble, which I funded by selling the holding in Amino Technologies (LON:AMO). I sold the FTSE put warrants and I added to both my holdings in easyJet (LON:EZJ) and Melrose Industries (LON:MRO).


In this week’s investment publications IGas Energy (LON:IGAS) is mentioned in MoneyWeek. It says if fracking takes off in the UK it could be a beneficiary. In Shares Magazine, Regenersis is described as “still not expensive given the potential to deliver significant earnings growth over the coming years” and in the Investors Chronicle, Plastics Capital (LON:PLA) and Berkeley Group are buys. Simon Thompson says he “would be inclined to bank hefty profits in Thorntons (LON:THT) and look for a re-entry point next year!”


Next week we have interim results from Dixons Retail (LON:DXNS) on Tuesday and on Wednesday Berkeley Group (LON:BKG) goes ex-dividend 90p per share.


Let’s hope for a better second half to December and finish 2013 on a high!


Happy investing!

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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johnrosier 21st Dec '13 40 of 46
2

Saturday 21st December 2013


Markets responded well to the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would reduce its “quantitative easing” program from $85bn per month to $75bn. The FTSE All Share Index rallied 2.6% and is now down just 0.2% in December. The JIC portfolio fared less well rising only 0.2%. Month to date JIC is down 1.3% and the All Share down 0.3% and year to date JIC is up 39.3% compared to 18.3% for the Index.


During the week only six of the holdings in the portfolio beat the All Share; Crawshaw (LON:CRAW) +14.5%, Vislink (LON:VLK) +7.1%, Fusionex International (LON:FXI) +7.0%, Regenersis (LON:RGS) +5.8%, Laird (LON:LRD) +4.2% and Biotech Growth Trust (LON:BIOG) +4.2%. At the other end of the leader board there were three holdings that fell by more than 5%; Adept Telecom (LON:ADT), -8.7%, Fox Marble Holdings (LON:FOX) -6.7% and Dixons Retail (LON:DXNS) -6.0%.


It was a busy week for the portfolio. I partook of a little end of year cleaning up of the portfolio and sold three holdings, which had not performed well since acquisition and where I did not feel confident that their fortunes would improve in the short to medium term. So out went Polo Resources (LON:POL), Agriterra (LON:AGTA) and Anglo Pacific (LON:APF) booking losses in the process. I bought back in to Intermediate Capital (LON:ICP) which has drifted back during the last few months and now has a prospective yield of more than 5% and I bought new holdings in J Sainsbury (LON:SBRY) and Kromek (LON:KMK). Sainsbury has had a few poor weeks since its pretty good interim results, apparently on the back of Lidl and Aldi’s expansion plans in the UK, and to me looked oversold and cheap with a prospective yield of 4.8%. I bought just a 1% holding in Kromek; During November I met the management of this technology company which joined the AIM market in October and was enthused by its prospects for rapid sales and profits growth. I reduced my holding in French Connection (LON:FCCN) to 2.0% and doubled up in Crawshaw (LON:CRAW), increasing the holding to 2.0%.


Not many mentions for JIC holdings in this week’s investment magazines. Dixons is rated a buy in the Investment Chronicle and also makes it into its 16 stock “great expectations” screen for 2014, as does Berkeley Group (LON:BKG). There are some good names in the list worth some further investigation! Commenting on Fusionex, Shares Magazine reckons “analysts look certain to raise 2014 forecasts when final results are published in January”. It also thinks “the next catalyst for Synectics (LON:SNX) share price, in the absence of further contract wins, should be full year results on 26th February”. Finally, Fusionex and Kromek are both in broker Panmure Gordon’s 14 stock small and mid-cap picks for 2014.


Have a very merry Christmas and happy investing!

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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johnrosier 11th Jan '14 41 of 46
1

Saturday 11th January 2014


A soggy start for markets with both the S&P 500 Index and the FTSE All Share struggling to make any progress. The S&P 500 is down 0.3% so far in 2014 and the All Share up just 0.2%. The JIC Portfolio has had a good start to the year and is up 3.2% so far and 77.1% since inception two years ago.
Performance in the first seven trading days was driven by Crawshaw Group +40.3%,(following a very strong trading update), Fusionex +27.3%, (ahead of results next week), Laird +14.0%,(again following a strong trading statement), Plastics Capital +8.3% and Biotech Growth Trust +6.2%. The only holding to fall by more than 5% was Regenersis,-7.3%.


During the week I wrote up New Year reviews of my holdings (only three still left to do; Fox Marble, Kromek and French Connection) which helped me focus my thoughts. I have added to my holdings in Melrose Industries, Intermediate Capital and Berkeley Group and cut my holding in Sainsbury; I fear that although ostensibly it looks attractive with a prospective yield of 5% it may languish for some time and end up being a bit of a value trap.

In this week’s investment publications, Shares Magazine rates Fusionex a buy and in John Baron’s excellent monthly piece in the Investors Chronicle he has made some changes to the investment trust portfolios he manages; he has sold his holdings in Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon and Worldwide Healthcare Trust and increased his exposure to Biotech Growth Trust and International Biotechnology Trust, all of which are held in the JIC Portfolio. He also mentions that he has bought City Natural Resources High Yield Trust on a near 20% discount; I hold this in my mother-in-law’s SIPP.

Next week I am aware of the following scheduled news; final results from Fusionex on Wednesday and trading statements, on Thursday, from two of my larger holdings, Dixons Retail and Thorntons. I would also expect a trading statement soon from French Connection (last year it released one on 16th January).
Next week back to researching new ideas and seeing if there are any gems in all the New Year tips!

See “Current Portfolio” tab above.

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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johnrosier 18th Jan '14 42 of 46
1

Saturday 18th January 2014


Markets faired a little better after the lacklustre first week of the year with the S&P 500 hitting new highs on Wednesday and the FTSE All Share (Total Return) Index closing at an all-time high on Friday. Over the week the FTSE All Share was up 1.1%. The JIC Portfolio continued the good start to the year, rising 2.6%, so that so far in 2014 it is up 5.9% compared to the FTSE All Share return of 1.3%.


Standout performances were from Igas Energy, +37.6%, following its farm out deal with Total, Fusionex, +19.4% following good results on Wednesday, Lamprell, +4.4% after it issued a strong trading statement, Thorntons, +6.6% after a strong Christmas trading statement and Biotech Growth Trust + 6.2%. Biotech Growth Trust has more than doubled in price from when I first bought it in April 2012, after I had read Jim Mellon’s book, “Cracking The Code; Understand and Profit from the Biotech Revolution that will Transform our Lives and Generate Fortunes”, which I highly recommend. The only stock to fall more than 5% was Dixons Retail. It has succumbed to some profit taking following good Christmas trading as some investors took fright following the Chief Executive’s words of caution about the months ahead. He pointed out that they are up against strong trading in the first quarter of 2013 and that Easter falls later this year. I think the market has over reacted and will be sitting tight for the time being.


The only trade during the week was to reduce the Fusionex holding to 2%, (having made 67% since mid-December), as I felt the valuation was looked stretched. I did not sell the lot as I wanted to keep some exposure to the “big data” theme which Fuisonex gives me through its GIANT software suite which it launched in December.


In the investment magazines this week, Fusionex is considered a hold in the Investors Chronicle, “well-diversified” Igas Energy is their preferred long term play on shale gas in the UK but they caution about chasing prices too far in the short term and Intermediate Capital is one of 11 stocks chosen for a “plausible income fund”. Shares Magazine reckons Igas Energy is best positioned of the UK players in shale gas.


Next week I am expecting a trading statement from Intermediate Capital on Tuesday and on Thursday Q1 results from easyJet. As ever though, I will be at my desk at 6.45 every morning ready for any surprises.

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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johnrosier 27th Jan '14 43 of 46
2

Saturday 25th January 2014

Thursday and Friday were not pretty, with the FTSE All Share giving up 2.4%, so that for the week as whole it lost 2.5% and is now down 1.1% so far this year. The JIC Portfolio fell 1.5% during the week but is up 4.4% since January 1st.

Within the JIC Portfolio, Vislink was the best performer, up 5.0%, reacting well to its move from the main market to AIM last weekend. At the other end of the list Regenersis gave up 7.9%, maybe suffering a little from the aftermath of the placing, the previous week, of 10% of the company at 300p by Hanover Investors, (Matthew Peacock and Tom Russell, both executive directors of Regenersis, have an indirect beneficial interest in the shares held by Hanover Investors through their association with Hanover Investors). Fusionex gave up 6% on the back of profit taking following its meteoric rise since mid-December.

I only made two changes to the portfolio; on Wednesday I reduced Biotech Growth Trust (LON:BIOG) to 4.0% and re-invested the proceeds in International Biotechnology Trust Closed Fund (LON:IBT), increasing the holding to 4.0%. There was no overall change to my exposure to the theme but I felt there was a good chance that the gap in performance between the share prices of the two companies could close, given that Biotech Growth stood at a small premium to NAV whilst International Biotechnology was at a 14% discount.

Little mention of JIC Portfolio holdings in this week’s investment magazines although in the Investors Chronicle, Laird (LON:LRD) and Fusionex International (LON:FXI) figure in a screen of value, growth and bargain plays! Dixons Retail (LON:DXNS) is considered a Buy in the same publication, pointing out how its investment in its online offering was paying off with online sales jumping by 23% between 1st November and 4th January.

I cannot see any scheduled news for any existing holdings next week, although a few past holdings are issuing trading statements or results; Amino Technologies, Filtronic and Globo. I am looking forward to attending a talk by Professor Michael Bradshaw "will the shale gale prevail" at the Royal Geographic Society on Monday and presentations by Thornton’s management and two other potential investments on Wednesday.

Given the way Wall Street closed on Friday I think we are in for a tough start on Monday. The chart below shows the S&P 500 Index over the last 18 months; it demonstrates the nice upwards trend which is interrupted occasionally by small corrections, which at the time always feel worse than they really are. The big question is whether this is another healthy correction, blowing the froth off the market or the start of a concerted period of weakness. I for one don’t know but will watch in the short term for any clues and will probably as a precaution raise a little cash from some of the more speculative and highly valued stocks in the portfolio. After all, I have some good profits and at the end of the day I am not particularly concerned with beating an index; I just want to make money and hold on to it!

(On the chart below I have included the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and drawn vertical lines where it has hit a level of 42 during the last 18 months. With the exception of November 2012 when the S&P drifted a little lower first, the S&P 500 has generally started to rally from this level. After Friday’s fall the RSI is at the 42 level, so I will be watching to see if it works this time!)

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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johnrosier 1st Feb '14 44 of 46
2

Saturday 1st February 2014


Another week in which equity markets struggled. The FTSE All Share Index fell 1.9%, making a fall of 3.1% for January. Pleasingly the JIC Portfolio bucked the trend falling just 0.9% during the week but increasing by 3.4% over the month as a whole. Since inception just over two years ago the JIC Portfolio is up 77.4%.


Laird was the best performer over the week, up 7.4% following an impressive strategy presentation by its chief executive on Monday which I wrote up on Tuesday. At the bottom end of the leader board were Igas energy, -10.8%, giving up some of the gains made earlier in the month, Kromek, -8.6%, (only 1% of the JIC Portfolio!) and Vislink -5.9%.


Fusionex had a strong day on Tuesday and I decided to sell the remainder of the holding booking a nice profit; the stock was up 80% on my October purchase price and I felt the valuation, despite all the excitement around “big data” was just far too rich. Unfortunately the next day it announced a contract for its GIANT software suite which excited the market driving the share price up a further 25% over the remainder the week! As Homer Simpson would say “D’oh”! However, I reckon you should only worry about what you hold and not about what you don’t. Once you have sold, move on. The only other changes were to increase the holding in Laird back up to 4.0% and reduce Regenersis to 3.0%.


In the weekend investment magazines Igas Energy is rated a speculative buy in MoneyWeek which highlights the potential upside from its shale gas reserves whilst pointing out that it has good cash flow from its conventional oil operations to underpin the share price. I attended a lecture on Monday at the Royal Geographic Society, "will the shale gale prevail” by Professor Michael Bradshaw. I think the main takeaways from the talk were: The US is gaining an incredible advantage from shale with gas prices that are about 1/3 of those in Europe and 1/6 of those in Japan; shale gas production in the UK is someway off; if it happens it will be at least five years away as we just do not have the infrastructure yet; the prize is not likely to be lower gas prices but energy security, a boost to the country’s balance of payments and lower Co2 emissions, (gas produces 56% of the Co2 emissions of coal). Shares Magazine reckons Igas energy is “best placed to benefit from increasing investment in UK shale”.


Next week January passenger stats are due from easyJet on Thursday and at some stage I would expect a trading statement from French Connection post its year end on 31st January; given that we have not had a post-Christmas profit warning and the shares have been quite strong during January, I am rather hoping that means any trading statement will be encouraging but maybe that is being a little too Machiavellian!


My chart above shows the FTSE All Share Index; interesting to note how it bounced off the 200 day moving average yesterday. There is likely to be a lot of commentary on the old adage “as January goes so goes the year”. I am indebted to Redburn Partners for this research; since 1969 there have been 27 positive Januarys on the S&P 500 Index and in 23 cases the return for the year was positive with an average return of 9.5%. Of the 18 years with down Januarys, 9 ended the year up and 9 down, however the positive years averaged just 2%! So, hopefully Friday’s bounce off the 200 day moving average will prove a low in the short term but whatever, I think we are in for a more volatile period.

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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jjis 1st Feb '14 45 of 46

In reply to post #81069

Thanks for the update...and so farewell then John as you disappear behind your pay wall! Good luck with it & hope it goes well for you.

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johnrosier 2nd Feb '14 46 of 46

Thanks but I'm sure I will still find time to stick my head over the parapet!

Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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